Video was clearly taken in winter so why would anybody consider it as a violation of OPSEC?

Seismic Record, 6 June 2023 Nova Kakhovka
 

attached is a time domain seismic record from NORSAR, the Norwegian Seismic Survey - Nuclear Explosion tracking system. They use a sensor array 600km to the W of Nova Kakhovka, that recorded the following:


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1233e2fefd.png


There is what has been described as a sharp spike consistent with an explosion at the 01:55:51.5 time period above, on 6 June 2023, located within a 20-30km of the dam, they are still working on refining the location. The time offset for the transmission to the receiver places that explosion at 01:54 Norwegian time (time delay of around 2 minutes for the transmission through the crust). Time on the chart is Norwegian local time, Ukraine time is +1 hr on that. The extended analysis has suggested to the same analysts that an earlier smaller seismic event happened around 20 minutes earlier at the same location. An FFT frequency analysis would be interesting but it is probable that this is an explosion.

The array can achieve a phase comparison for localising the bearing and distance, other arrays or sensors would increase the accuracy, but it is attributed to the destruction of the dam at this time. The estimates magnitude as an earthquake is not particularly high, Magnitude 1.5-2 is relatively low energy, but the conversion from a detonation to a seismic event is not provided. They have at least earlier records that they can assess the explosive charge, the photos of November show large detonations and give timings, that record would be interesting to compare.



https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a4c5b73c4f.png

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....543d5148e1.png





Seismic Signal Recorded from an Explosion


Slowness and azimuth determination for Bucovina array (BURAR) applying multiple signal techniques

In regards to the above, could the high water level behind the dam have floated a mine or two which then drifted towards and made contact with a weakened part of the dam? The straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak.

All things are possible. The stated magnitude estimate is actually low energy equivalent, around 25MJ, that is not a lot of explosives... it is probably around an M6 mine level, which seems way too small. I have asked if they can look. back at the November event time, and see the trace from that. Detecting a single mine detonation suggests that the conversion of explosive energy released does not equate readily to a seismic event. Open to input form experts in that field, it is outside of my ASW and AAIB experience. I would have guessed a M3.7 or so for a charge large enough to make a mess.

Such a detonation would be in water. How would that affect the seismic impact? How does the signal compare to that given off by other kinds of event such as artillery or HIMARS impacts? I presume we are speculating about it being an anti tank mine, how well do they float?

Knocking the top of a dam does sod all. you need to get the charges deep to take into account water pressure in water incompressability. Its why dam busters struck from the water side and not airside

I have this recent video clip in my mind of a mine exploding as someone is leaving a pillbox near the shore of the waters behind the dam. The explanation was that mines were being activated by the rising waters. I cannot now find the video or link.

Subsequent digging around suggests that anti-tank mines do not float. The various mines seen floating along below the dam would have been dislodged as much by the current as by their buoyancy. I am willing to withdraw the question.

The intercepted telephone conversation between two Russian soldiers admitting 'oops moment' Russian involvement, however, offers food for thought. If they blew the charges expecting a certain result, but certainly NOT what actually happened, what was their original aim? To open the stuck sluice gates on the top level and remove excess water that the Ukrainians had allegedly been pouring in from upstream, and to drown advanced units of the Ukrainian army on the river islands down below?

Some relevant comment in today’s Times by Janice Turner

Putin’s dam attack should jolt the complacent

Ukraine needs international support more than ever, now that Russia’s reckless president has proved he has no limits.

That Putin would do this — and all experts and evidence point to explosives being detonated within the Russian-controlled hydroelectric plant itself — takes the war to a catastrophic level. This is not about territory or power or even human lives lost: it is a salting of the earth.

Speculation about mistakes ,mines ,Ukraine involvement etc is disingenuous!

It also begs the darkest question: if Putin is capable of this, what else will he do? Imagine approving the order that sent 18 cubic kilometres of water cascading down the Dnipro plain, draining a reservoir that irrigated three agricultural regions, provided drinking water for 100,000; to destroy thousands of homes, to spread sewage, disease and chemical pollutants, to wash away rich topsoil, drown livestock, uproot landmines that will sweep downstream to lodge in some unsuspecting farmer’s field or family garden. The nihilism of letting millions of fish fry in the sun on the banks of the empty reservoir just after spawning season or the petty tragedy of 300 animals in Kazkova Dibrova zoo left to drown in their enclosures. All this for the tactical advantage of bogging down advancing Ukrainian tanks.

Worst of all perhaps is that in blowing up the dam, Russia flooded out householders in its own territory, yet then left them on rooftops or in trees for days, begging on social media for help. Meanwhile Russian troops stole their boats and retreated to higher ground, from where they strafed rescuers pulling disabled people from buildings on the Ukrainian side.

This was cold-blooded destruction of infrastructure that has advanced civilisation: the engineering expertise of the Soviet era that Putin purports to revere, which allowed crop yields to rise, watermelon and sunflower oil to be exported, creating prosperity and peace. The 1949 Geneva Convention contains a specific prohibition against destroying dams: it is a crime against humanity

I keep thinking it. I don't like it. But Is it now time to take the war to Russia?

Russia has acted with depravity for years, certainly continuing on a legacy out of the USSR disintegration and into the Russia Federation, with their target of interest primarily being their former member states who have reconsidered the merit of being under Moscows yoke. This latest disaster is attributable directly or indirectly to decisions of the Kremlin, and they have made Kremlin approved comments on continuing further such outrages and breaches of international law. Ukraine has won broad global support due to their balanced response that compares favourably against Russias depravity, and that has resulted in funding and supply of military logistics to Ukraine, while hardening the rest of the worlds position to sanction Russia and to hold them accountable for their crimes.

Ukraine risks losing support if they stoop to the level of Russia; Russia proves daily that the crimes they perpetrate are not militarily sound, they are simply sadistic, and generally increase the resistance against their presence.

• Ukraine has every right to attack Russian military installations within Russia;
• Ukraine has elected not to retaliate against Belarus for their co-conspirator status with the 24 Feb 22 invasion;
• Russians attacking Russia from Ukraine or from within Russia is justice by Russians on Russians, more power to them;
• The world needs to make it clear that the remaining constraints on weapon supply to Ukraine would be removed Wirth further Russian atrocities, deliberate or incidental;
• Range constrains should be immediately removed on all weapon systems provided to Ukraine, they have kept their word, and have every right to defend their home from Putin and his criminal horde. The Ukranians have shown integrity and responsibility in their actions, that isn't placing them on a pedestal, they have had the capability of reciprocating with the same atrocities as Putin, and have not;
• Russia has reinforced the expectation of their lying on all matters, they have no credibility, and taking that to it's logical limit, Russia has lost all opportunity to achieve a negotiated agreement, they cannot be trusted, they always, but always, break their word, it is in their nature.

Russia commenced this ill advised adventure in 2014 and did not heed the warning signs of hubris at that time, and they have broken their professional military in the process. They have shown their weapons, military might and tactical competency are Potemkin like mirages, and that will continue to corrode their grip on the federation, Putin is the walking dead, he just hasn't received the memo yet. The Federation of Russia appears to have already crossed the rubicon, when the Stans are derisive of Putin, and look to China as their potential strategic support.

None of the above requires Ukraine to go and mirror Russian depravity, but they should have every right to attack Russian military capability everywhere it may be found. To do that, they need the removal of the shackles that have been applied in fear that they would not be responsible end users. Ukraine remains the adults in the building, all of those in Russia are behind bars or banished, or cowering in justifiable fear.

No, but it increases the chances of individual European nations sending their forces into Ukraine to support them.

If you wonder what that might mean, as an example, it means they can bring their air force with them…..

The Dutch still have a score to settle…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...alliance-chief

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Air_Force#Aircraft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_...rent_inventory

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Twitter

Alleged to be combat footage from where the multiple Bradley's were damaged. Usual caveats apply:

Twitter

Twitter

The only way I could envisage troops in would be say to protect the Red Cross or some similar organisation responding to the flooding. Anything else might be seen in a different light.

DIY misery, having to retreat through your own minefields and taking casualties.

More Russian bases hit.

If you want more evidence of dam destruction, the Russians have also been blowing up smaller dams creating localised swamp areas.


Spy satellites picked up the dam explosion, but I can understand why we haven’t seen the photos as it gives Russia an indication of the west’s military satellite imagery capability.

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More smoking in Russia around fuel.

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Some things amaze me in life and as an Engineer I love to see clever inventions that appear simple, but operate on a whole new level.

This is pure genius and I can imagine it removes the fuse to disarm the mines then extracts them from the ground in case of it being booby trapped underneath.

I would imagine mine clearing operatives the world over are looking on at this in amazement.




..

Apparently the Russian banking system may have been taken down too.

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Wokkafans
Looks like all that armour is in reasonable conditions and crew appear to be safe. It can stay out there and be recovered later unless Russian artillery destroys it in place before that. It is a war and as much as most want Ukraine to triumph you sometimes lose individual actions. However armour is a litttle
more robust, than shall we say Aircraft so they will be fine to retrieve.

The Germans in WW2 became very good at retrieving armour and patching it up, and their tanks then were pigs to work on in comparison with Lep 2 which I know a little about, but don’t know about Bradley but assume the same.

Cheers
Mr Mac