I wonder if the above, and this, are tied to the reported XXX€B transfer from the EU (said to be the locked up Russian funds)

Ukraine according to Zelenskyy is holding serious talks with Non European countries for the purchase of huge packages of weapons, presumably South Korea.…

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...d-his-veterans

PUTIN IS UNLIKELY TO DEMOBILIZE IN THE EVENT OF A CEASEFIRE BECAUSE HE IS AFRAID OF HIS VETERANS

Executive Summary:

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a coordinated campaign in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society in Russia, likely out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return from Ukraine. The Kremlin launched several initiatives to co-opt loyalist veteran figures and form state-controlled veterans organizations in support of the permanent militarization of Russian society at the federal, regional, and local levels.

The Kremlin seeks to silence voices capable of meaningfully objecting to the continuation of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine or questioning Russian government decisions. Putin is likely trying to avoid a modern analog to the veterans-based civil society born from the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Kremlin likely fears political instability such as what followed the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988-1989.

It is falsely framing its current initiatives to co-opt veteran life as preventative measures against the reemergence of “Afghan syndrome” — a popular Russian term used to describe the aftermath of the Soviet government’s failure to reintegrate psychologically traumatized Soviet veterans into Russian society upon their return from Afghanistan. It is thus using the cover of “preventing Afghan syndrome” as an excuse to prevent the emergence of civil society groups that could have credibility among the population as well as organizational ability but might not remain loyal to Putin himself or his decisions and actions.

The Kremlin’s decision to launch this campaign indicates that Putin fears the risks and challenges associated with reintegrating over 700,000 veterans into Russian society and thus remains unlikely to demobilize fully or rapidly — even in the event of a negotiated settlement to its war in Ukraine.

The United States and Ukraine’s allies must consider the Kremlin’s fear of emerging veteran civil society groups and demobilization when assessing Russia’s negotiating position and the requirements for enduring peace in Ukraine and Europe……

I read this thread at least twice a day, however it is a nuisance to dig into another threads for additional information. I understand that some posts go astray with too much politics, but I believe that thread about any war is incomplete without related political context. It is frustrating sometimes.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov says Ukraine now has a Starlink alternative.

New guy Metz promised Taurus missiles . Let’s see if he delivers


Friedrich Merz, known for his resolute pro-Ukrainian stance and promise to give Ukraine a Taurus, announced victory in the elections. Olaf Scholz congratulated Merz on his victory, admitted his defeat and took responsibility for it.

Step by step one gets to Rome. Ukraine has surely sown some good karma, for slowly her support is growing.

Russia's karma history sadly differs, and her advance is now minimal, with maximal casualty.

That guidance has been in place since shortly after the war began.
If you lack the energy to make a few mouse clicks, you might want to look into the mirror for the source of your problem.

This guidance is not solely for Pali.

As said in a post on Twit, South Korea is in need of resources such as Ukraine has, and possibly Ukraine could make a better deal with Korea for weapons and support that Pres Trump may demand.

Yeah but... South Korea aren't going to cross Trump.

Well the EU might be interested in such a deal. EU pretty unhappy with US at moment, and industrial capacity of EU as a whole not that far off US I imagine.
Massive orders from Ukraine for EU companies, paid for by deal on their future minerals, might be possible.
However EU would have to start acting cohesively and promptly, so maybe not a realistic alternative to US in the timeframe needed.

85 percent of destroyed Russian armed forces equipment and personnel is by Ukrainian munition drones- The head of Ukrainian special intelligence service. …

For those that need a reminder on Istanbul demands

1. Denazification and Demilitarization
2. Ukraine Must Give Up Territories Russia Annexed
3. Ukraine must be neutral, nonaligned, nonnuclear state (No NATO or EU)
4. Lifting all Western sanctions
5. Ukrainian demilitarization continued based on the leaked April 15 2022 Istanbul talks Ukrainian Armed Forces capped to the following size
-No more than 50,000 troops
-No more than 519 Artillery Pieces
-No more than 342 tanks
-Complete ban on any Ukrainian missile or rocket with a range over 40 kilometers (won't be surprised if drones are added)
-Complete ban on any imported weaponry in Ukraine
-Every guarantor state (US, UK, France, China, Russia) required to pull out of all treaties and international agreements that allowed arms sales to Ukraine, unless those sales went to Crimea.

ISW: https://understandingwar.org/backgro...bruary-23-2025

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 23, 2025

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February 23. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document……

Video💥 Russia: Ryazan Oil Refinery burns after Ukrainian drone strikes.

Over 500km from Ukraine. Refining capacity of 340,000 barrels per day.

As a humble observer & with little military or political insight into how to bring this war to an end, I am convinced of one thing & that is that in aviation terms, we're way past the PNR (Point of No Return) in this war. Russia HAS to want this war to end & end soon, because it seems to become more & more crippled with each passing week - both financially & militarily. To let Putin & Co off the hook now will undo much of the very hard work that Ukraine (& its allies) have completed to date. This has to go the distance with Putin defeated, otherwise this whole scenario will be repeated again sooner rather than later...

If only that "*%$#" Trump would look at it that way.

Just my 2 lire's worth...

The EU has shown unusual ( for them ) initiative with financial and military (!!!!! ) aid for Ukraine, so even the announcement that they were opening negotiations with Ukraine would be beneficial. It would show Trump that discarding Europe as allies risks causing him some inconvenience and should improve whatever offers he makes to Ukr. It seems win-win for this iside of the pond.

Hmm. I suppose that's about as likely as the U.S. crossing Europe?

He will not be ruling alone, and all Coalition mathematics (including the theoretical one with AfD) will make it incredibly difficult for Merz, I would even say: impossible in any constellation. Even if Scholz let it go and Pistorius takes over - there is still the SPD (socialists) members vote on major decisions.

"CDU leader Friedrich Merz has said his “absolute priority” will be to strengthen Europe so as to achieve independence from the US in defence matters as he prepares to embark on coalition negotiations that are expected to last until Easter.Speaking on Sunday evening Merz said US President Donald Trump had made it “clear that [his] government is fairly indifferent to Europe’s fate” and that Germany would have to wait to see “whether we will still be able to speak about Nato in its current form” when the alliance meets for its next summit in June.

“For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA” in defence matters, Merz said."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...cdu-afd-widel?

At this rate we will soon be talking about NATO- where the '-' refers to Hungary and USA; and also NATO+ where the '+' refers to Ukraine. So I guess that becomes NATO +/-.

Alternatively a swift round of EU enlargement to accept in Ukraine, Canada, and welcome back UK, plus various Balkans; and a suspension of Hungary's membership alongside incorporation of Art 5 in the EU constitution. That could be called the CanEuroTO or CETO for short. Having a separate CETO to take over rump NATO would save on any changes to EU constitution/treaties.

(Let's face it most other acronyms have been taken at one time or other. FPDA, CENTO, CSTO, SEATO, CTO)

It must be a nightmare being a staffer in Five Eyes right now, furiously drafting policy papers in a hurricane with all the windows smashed by the landlord.

And as for AUKUS in these circumstances .... or for that matter spare a thought for defence planners in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

If you build your car with four sizes of tires and an independent hand brake, don't be surprised if the ride is a little rough and slow - there are are other methods of travel


Yes, yes and yes!