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-   -   Ukraine War Thread Part 2 (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/652441-ukraine-war-thread-part-2-a.html)

NutLoose 14th March 2024 05:11

Re the parked up A-50’s, enough said..

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4b154ffc2.jpeg


konstantin 14th March 2024 07:15

That`s not even an A-50 parts boneyard, more an embarrassing scrapyard.
For the whole world to see, looks pretty bad even on google maps sat view...

IlyaMuromets 14th March 2024 07:52


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11615063)
Did we not see her before in a recent post?

Yes, though perhaps not so recent! The face and the location are familiar, as is the mention of tea and a (singular) cake at the cafe charging restaurant prices.
IM

RetiredBA/BY 14th March 2024 08:16


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11615122)
Is that the same Vitaly Robertus who was a well-known designer/builder/pilot of world championship winning RC jet models? Looks very like the guy I met at various competitions.

Looks like him to me, and I have met him several times.
Now certain.
Reported as suicide by hanging, but do we believe anything coming out of Russia.
4 senior executives of this company have died in odd circumstances since the beginning of the “SMO”.

51bravo 14th March 2024 09:00


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11615199)
That apart what is the latest on destruction of Patriots ? I read in a couple of places that two launchers had been hit, but numerous other sources like Denys Davidov and Reporting from Ukraine have said nothing and they are normally completely honest AFAIK.

Oh, Dennis told about at least one destroyed launcher, in one of the last daily reports (on YT).

petit plateau 14th March 2024 09:19


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11615199)
Have to say- albeit as someone with no knowledge of the oil-industry - I can't believe that they have destroyed 12% of Russia's refining capacity.in 2 days as Bloomberg claims. Believable for me would be " have hit refineries responsible for 12% of ......" which might then mean destruction of 1-2% ( pure guess ) refining capacity..

Your scepticism is justified. To put things in context Russian oil & condensate production (i.e. "liquids") is about 10-million barrel per day, which represents approximately 10% of global production that is close to 100-million barrels per day.

This Yahoo news item repeats all the key facts in the Bloomberg ones that are paywalled, and icludes a useful map:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major...075404268.html
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b8ad30fc81.png

The refineries hit recently seem to have typical throughputs of 100,000 - 300,000 barrels per day. So one can get to the 12% number just from forcing a shutdown of three refineries, but the issue is how quick can they do a restart, and how much damage is caused.

One of those attacks seemingly targeted a cracker in the refinery. If they got that (if) and if they penetrated it (if) whilst hot (if) in such a way as to cause a product explosion (if) then that might do long term damage that is not easy to repair. The larger the warheads get, the longer the drone ranges get, the better the targetting knowledge becomes, the more accurate the final strike becomes, the greater the likelihood of doing substantial lasting damage.

This has consequences for civilian fuels use in Russia, military fuels use in Russia, Russian exports of both crude and refined product (in different ways, complex), and Russian economy. Global economy will barely notice it.

They are also going after significant metals production facilities, again striking at particular bits of kit. I expect that other energy/power assets will be on their targetting list.

Cumulatively this will all have an effect. Whether it is sufficient in the current context remains to be seen.



henra 14th March 2024 09:22


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11615210)
Russian reports are that General Geronimo could have been fired from the army and his replacement has been announced..

I seem to remember rumours of him having been among a group hit by a strike on a command post on crimea about a month ago or two, has he been ever seen since?

KeyPilot 14th March 2024 09:47


Originally Posted by konstantin (Post 11615405)
That`s not even an A-50 parts boneyard, more an embarrassing scrapyard.
For the whole world to see, looks pretty bad even on google maps sat view...

They look in even worse nick than the Nimrod AEWs at Abingdon in the 80s... and that's saying something!

Pali 14th March 2024 10:30


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11615199)
Have to say- albeit as someone with no knowledge of the oil-industry - I can't believe that they have destroyed 12% of Russia's refining capacity.in 2 days as Bloomberg claims. Believable for me would be " have hit refineries responsible for 12% of ......" which might then mean destruction of 1-2% ( pure guess ) refining capacity.

Good news is that ZSU is able to hit the very core of refineries = distillation columns. If this is destroyed the whole refinery will halt. It is not known how quickly they can replace them (e.g. in Ploiesti during WW2 Germans were able to get them on line within weeks after the first raid) but with lack of workforce and sanctioned import of technologies it may be a problem either due to added time or it will become very expensive.

Russia had over 40 operational refineries before the war but some of them stopped production due the fact that refined oil products couldn't be exported due the sanctions. On other hand less operational refineries caused outages during harvest in September 2023 and surprisingly Putin forbid export of diesel for quite a long time. Attacks on refineries seem to have visible effects as outages of petrol at fuel stations are widely reported since the beginning of the year and even gasoline export was forbidden. All this cause logistics nightmare, overstretching forces which must protect infrastructure and can't be stationed on the front line, it also hurts the Russia's income. With current trend we may expect that Russia's funds will run out sometimes in the beginning of 2025. We may hope that Putin will try to continue fight but there will be a complete break down at a certain point.

Good analysis by Joe Blogs:



Tartiflette Fan 14th March 2024 10:33


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11615469)
I seem to remember rumours of him having been among a group hit by a strike on a command post on crimea about a month ago or two, has he been ever seen since?

Fairly certain that he has not. There could be a trend here. Several months ago the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Vice-Admiral Viktor Sokolov, was rumoured to have been killed in an attack on Sevastopol HQ and has not been seen since * and he was removed from this position this week. Much less embarrassing to say nothing about deaths and then just replace them months later.

* Believe there was a supposed appearance just after attack, but lots of speculation it was manipulated images.

RedToo 14th March 2024 11:22

Frontline report:


NutLoose 14th March 2024 11:33

Another Russian ship attacked that slipped under the radar.


The Ukrainian Navy reported on the destruction of the tanker Mekhanik Pogodin, which the Russians converted into a command post, according to the Ukrainian Navy's Facebook page.

"On March 11, 2024, as a result of a successful airstrike by the Ukrainian Air Force in the area of the Kinburn Spit, the tanker under the Russian flag Mekhanik Pogodin, which the Russians used as a command post, was destroyed," the Ukrainian Navy reported.

On May 2, 2018, VEB-Leasing OJSC (St. Petersburg), the owner of the tanker, was included in the sanctions list and arrested. After the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station was blown up in 2023, the tanker was washed ashore in the territory temporarily controlled by the occupiers.

"The tanker Mekhanik Pogodin was arrested and was located in the territory of the Kherson seaport until the summer of 2023. After the Russians blew up the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station, the tanker was washed ashore on the Kinburn Spit, which is temporarily controlled by the Russians," the Ukrainian Navy reported.

The Russians set up an observation post for reconnaissance on the ship. The vessel was used to launch drone strikes on the Kherson region.

"Subsequently, an observation post for reconnaissance and electronic warfare means was deployed on the mentioned vessel. The ship was periodically used as a platform for launching FPV drones to strike the territory of the Kherson region," the Ukrainian Navy reported.

Therefore, the destruction of the Russian tanker Mekhanik Pogodin not only thwarted the invaders in their plans but was also carried out in full compliance with the norms of International Humanitarian Law.
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukra...710202684.html






https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b983407ff3.jpg




NutLoose 14th March 2024 11:52

That's service for you.



NutLoose 14th March 2024 11:55

And you thought the Grenfell coating was bad.


sycamore 14th March 2024 12:07

#9273;That small supply boat really went for a ride; almost as good as `turret-tossing`....

ANOpax 14th March 2024 12:18


Originally Posted by sycamore (Post 11615604)
#9273;That small supply boat really went for a ride; almost as good as `turret-tossing`....

I think that's the ship's bridge superstructure being tossed, rather than a supply boat.

rattman 14th March 2024 12:58


Originally Posted by sycamore (Post 11615604)
#9273;That small supply boat really went for a ride; almost as good as `turret-tossing`....

claims it was lifeboat but we wont really ever know

NutLoose 14th March 2024 13:09

There are some on the back of the superstructure.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c31e2ebf3.jpeg

meleagertoo 14th March 2024 16:20


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11615588)
And you thought the Grenfell coating was bad.



https://twitter.com/UaCoins/status/1768238638909767793

That's mighty strange conflagration. No way is that normal building materials, it burns out like a firework in 30 seconds or so.
All the yellow bits being projected up in the fire makes me wonder if that isn't a huge pressurised container of something like liquid builder's bodge foam intended to be injected for insulation going up.
Boy, the Ruzzians know how to do fires in style, don't they?

chopper2004 14th March 2024 16:38

jamming Grant Shapps
 
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2512675.html

cheers


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