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-   -   Ukraine War Thread Part 2 (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/652441-ukraine-war-thread-part-2-a.html)

Mr Mac 24th June 2023 08:30

Well we know this is not a False Flag and is a real military Coup.

The Ukrainian either capitalise on this and move those uncommitted new Brigades into action or sit tight and observe . There may also be back channel information through Western Intelligence telling them to sit tight. Really interesting watching this play out and the speed at which it is unravelling. Friday night was a good choice another would be New Years Eve.

Cheers
Mr Mac

Auxtank 24th June 2023 08:36


Originally Posted by Mr Mac (Post 11456048)
Well we know this is not a False Flag and is a real military Coup.

The Ukrainian either capitalise on this and move those uncommitted new Brigades into action or sit tight and observe . There may also be back channel information through Western Intelligence telling them to sit tight. Really interesting watching this play out and the speed at which it is unravelling. Friday night was a good choice another would be New Years Eve.

Cheers
Mr Mac

I have no doubt whatsoever that the back channel chat to Ukraine is to sit tight and wait.
Whether or not they will is another matter.

anxiao 24th June 2023 08:54

Perhaps the danger for Ukraine is that now Wagner has control of the materiel in the Rostov area it will be forwarded much more efficiently to the front lines than it was under the Russian military command.

Less corruption, better organisation under Wagner would be my un-informed guess.


Low average 24th June 2023 09:03

I guess this is a way out for Russia and Prigozhin. Instead of getting assassinated by Putin, or murdered by his own devastated mercenaries, he mounts a successful coup and becomes the new Tsar.

Ukraine is victorious in the East and Crimea, but it's all the overthrown Putin's fault. Peace and borders restored. Prigozhin sits on the throne.

Video Mixdown 24th June 2023 09:28


Originally Posted by anxiao (Post 11456064)
Perhaps the danger for Ukraine is that now Wagner has control of the materiel in the Rostov area it will be forwarded much more efficiently to the front lines than it was under the Russian military command.
Less corruption, better organisation under Wagner would be my un-informed guess.

​​​​​​That assumes that Wagner wants to continue a war with Ukraine that is sapping Russian blood and treasure. Their boss has long been critical not just of the conduct of the war, but the reasons for it. One thing is for sure; there's not room in Russia for both of them so one has got to go. If (big if) he manages to topple Putin he will have plenty of problems stabilising Russia and changing the regime to suit his own ambitions, which may be very different from Putin's.

peter we 24th June 2023 09:29


Originally Posted by anxiao (Post 11456064)
Perhaps the danger for Ukraine is that now Wagner has control of the materiel in the Rostov area it will be forwarded much more efficiently to the front lines than it was under the Russian military command.

Less corruption, better organisation under Wagner would be my un-informed guess.

or maybe more honesty, that 1000 casualties per day while losing is not worth it.

MPN11 24th June 2023 09:39


Originally Posted by anxiao (Post 11456064)
Perhaps the danger for Ukraine is that now Wagner has control of the materiel in the Rostov area it will be forwarded much more efficiently to the front lines than it was under the Russian military command.
Less corruption, better organisation under Wagner would be my un-informed guess.

And potentially bad news for UKR.


Originally Posted by Low average (Post 11456067)
I guess this is a way out for Russia and Prigozhin. Instead of getting assassinated by Putin, or murdered by his own devastated mercenaries, he mounts a successful coup and becomes the new Tsar.

Ukraine is victorious in the East and Crimea, but it's all the overthrown Putin's fault. Peace and borders restored. Prigozhin sits on the throne.

Does he want political power or just Military power?


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11456077)
​​​​​​That assumes that Wagner wants to continue a war with Ukraine that is sapping Russian blood and treasure. Their boss has long been critical not just of the conduct of the war, but the reasons for it. One thing is for sure; there's not room in Russia for both of them so one has got to go. If (big if) he manages to topple Putin he will have plenty of problems stabilising Russia and changing the regime to suit his own ambitions, which may be very different from Putin's.

Prizoghin, the man of peace?

This is all too complicated!

GeeRam 24th June 2023 09:40

Surely this has to be Ukraine's best chance of pushing Russia out of its territory?
Taking their foot of the gas now could be a huge mistake if Piggy topples Pootin, and then sets about Ukraine in a more organised way. If Wagner have moved east, and are now in effect in command of the southern Russian area as a whole, what's left in Crimea and Donbas etc have got to be fairly devoid of command and control, or will soon be under better command and control.....


Tartiflette Fan 24th June 2023 10:13


Originally Posted by anxiao (Post 11456064)
Perhaps the danger for Ukraine is that now Wagner has control of the materiel in the Rostov area it will be forwarded much more efficiently to the front lines than it was under the Russian military command.

I can't really understand why you think that would be so. Since Wagner has been supplied by the RuA, they will not have had any logistics system or specialists. In any case, you can't sweep into a system as badly organised as the existing Russian one ( no pallets/fork-lifts ) and expect to reform it in a month: probably up to a decade. Prigozhin has also said that he will not interfere with the conduct of the war, and allow the (Rostov ) generals to carry on giving orders, whilst also adding that these orders are killing thousands of troops needlessly.

TWT 24th June 2023 10:34


Originally Posted by squawking 7700 (Post 11456071)
I wonder where Kadyrov's loyalties will lie as this unfolds and what part he'll play

Kadyrov is backing Putin

pasta 24th June 2023 10:40

Half expecting a troll from Zelenskyy, offering to bring in a peacekeeping force and help set up democratic elections...

Beamr 24th June 2023 16:41

Russians are reporting that UAF has crossed Dnipro in Kherson region. A bit far fetched considering the situation after the dam bust, but hey, it's the only news regardin UAF since 24 hours so good to know what the Russkies are spreading. Maybe it adds to their anxiety with everything else going on.



albatross 24th June 2023 19:15

COMMENTS on the “Russian Insurrection”.

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Stockportcounty 24th June 2023 21:00

Right, where were we ??

Surely Ukraine must be making hay.

I would like to join the others who have praised the regular informative contributors to this thread,, I would not know where to start, this is my go to info channel..TY

NutLoose 24th June 2023 21:36

Ukraine forces practice setting up pontoon bridges under fire.

​​​​​​​

NutLoose 24th June 2023 21:41

I won’t mention I said I felt this was what was going to happen the other day, destroy those bridges linking to the Donbas is a two sided sword, it slows troops heading to Crimea as much as it does the other way, and with the combat being fought around the Bakhmut zone, Russian troops had been pulled from the Kherson region to support them.


my previous post


I could believe that, cutting the bridges from Crimea to the Donbas is a two way thing, it stops troops heading the other way if an incursion was started in the Kherson region.

NutLoose 24th June 2023 22:16

It was impressive .


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Wokkafans 24th June 2023 22:30

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NutLoose 24th June 2023 22:40

Direct call to Russian troops to go home.

​​​​​​​

Piper_Driver 25th June 2023 01:12

I hope all the recent noise and fury in Russia is not an elaborate ploy to re-stage Wagner to southern Belarus where they could try striking Kiev.


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