https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iran...om-1.500480569

Scratch one missile factory.

2 ARG's heading to the gulf, 48 hour mobilisation order issue to the majority of the 82nd airborne (16K men) you take a guess

The intent and the consequences can be political as well as military.

An IRBM impacting in the centre of London would have earth shattering political consequences and ramifications, both for the government and for the MOD.

You raise a very good point RR. Speaking for myself, I don't support the regime in the slightest at all.

I once taught an Iranian guy to fly. His family had left Iran when the Shah of Iran was deposed. We've lost touch since I taught him but he and his family (this was in the early 2000's) were quite at a loss as to how Iran could ever be recovered given the nature of the hold the regime had even back then, a hold which has only grown stronger.

The issue is how do you remove such a regime which has had time to watch what happened in the other places you mention where regime changes took place and, undoubtedly, saw where the weaknesses in those regimes were and have worked to ensure they don't have the same weaknesses.

As was highlighted some while back in this very Thread, the whole defensive structure set up by the regime is designed to spread the threat to any attacking forces far and wide, make a few surgical strikes pointless. And the ability for them to strike within the ME quite easily, and the chaos that will cause, is a card they play very well. They've thought this through very carefully over many years - they are not fools!

I suspect that this is why others have not rushed in to join the US here. We don't believe that this is a "winnable" war as it stands. Now, what the solution is ......... well, that's the $1M question. I really don't think anyone knows!

Anyway, just my thoughts! :ok:

If Trump moves against Kharg, it seems a given the Iranians will retaliate big time against the Gulf states' key O&G infrastructure. Thursday will seem like a quiet day in comparison.

As neither Mod nor Admin, I saw some interesting numbers in the link provided by West Coast Depending upon what targets they are launching their missiles against, they may only need a few to land on target.

What would the likely objective be? I have seen talk of Kharg Island but getting the group through the Strait may not be without incident.

OTH....

I would have though Qeshm, the Tunbs and other islands that would provide platforms to dominate the Strait and afford forward screen against drones anti ship missiles --- like ships just made of rock and fairly stationary.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....beb1a152b.jpeg
​​​​​​​

It's not in Iran's interest to end the war under those conditions. The U.S. or Israeli's can come back whenever they like and hit missile factories or nuclear sites, and Iran's still under sanctions with a destroyed economy without the capital to rebuild. You can say they should have thought of that, or it serves them right. But that ignores the incredibly strong hand they have.

Instead, Iran will continue to blockade Hormuz until they force an agreement which provides sanctions relief, and the GCC make some kind of agreement to prevent Israel / U.S. attacking again. Likely a quiet back-channel demand for reparations, too, which will get covered by the GCC.

Time is on the side of Iran here, not anyone else. The economic dislocation of the last three weeks is now massive, and it's been surprising that western governments have kept a lid on how bad things are going to get. Silly stories about 50mph speed limits and some rationing in the UK are a distraction. Even if the war ends tomorrow, oil and gas facilities don't just restart instantly. Tankers - both oil and gas - are not in the right places around the world. Similar story for fertilisers. Soon, tankers and ships will be really dislocated. The ones that are currently reaching ports in Asia and Europe, do they turn around or wait? How long does the O&G restart take? How long before the U.S. verifies that Hormuz has not been mined, or the mines dealt with, to allow normal traffic levels to resume? Oil, gas and fertiliser prices will take many, many months to get back to pre-war levels.

The economic impact is felt in food supply and prices, as well as energy prices. With central banks being torn between putting up interest rates to counter inflation, at the same time as the multi-trillion dollar private credit market is showing extreme signs of stress, with contagion to the main banking system. And this is going on even if the war stops today. It's far worse than it seems.

Iran is the size of Alaska. We see planes going down in the deserts and jungles across the world which disappear for years despite extensive searches. Are the U.S. going to be able to locate every missile and drone launcher sooner than the economic pain becomes unbearable? Which is really only another 2-3 weeks. I doubt it.

A tactic of ratcheting up the pain for Iran, such as attacking their oil fields, will cause Iran to do the same to their neighbours. Out of five missiles fired into Qatar's main field, one got through and shut off 15-20% production for 2-5 years. No one can afford more O&G going offline in that region of the world.

Navies from the U.K./Europe/Japan/Australia getting into this mix solves nothing. It prolongs the economic pain, and the fallout is going to hit the U.K./Europe/Japan/Australia/NZ and Asia hardest. Africa, too, due to food prices. In the unlikely event some of these countries should choose to get involved with their Navy's, they should take a leaf out of Trump's transactional book and demand significant payment for the work. A few billion £'s/Euro's month from protecting conveys can soften the blow of economies back home and the cost of the military operation. Of course, this cost will just be added to the price of oil/gas/fertiliser, but that's someone else's problem, not the countries providing the ships. I'm surprised Trump hasn't already indicated that he'll leave unless paid by the GCC.

The problem is the chasm between what Iran, Israel and the U.S. all need to end the war. It needs serious, good faith, rapid negotiations. There's a massive shortage of that in all the main parties to the conflict.

Interesting that the estimated number of anti-ship missiles remaining is substantial. No doubt this adds to the threat in the SoH.

Absolutely. Among my various circles of friends and acquaintances there is no sign that they are beginning to think beyond fuel going up a little at the pumps.
Just wait until the government says "no need to panic buy!".

My QM expert dear wife is organising a years-worth of consumables, and with an eye to interruptions in power supply. Fortunately we have good storage facilities. Red wine by the case.
And yes: It's far worse than it seems.

Could have sworn I got a Pprune notification of this, then it vanished.
Is it up somewhere
Cannot locate it !

http://Missile hits Dimona southern ...tzb82nMiR5iE2O

Missile hits Dimona southern Israeli city hosting nuclear facility; 23 injured

⁠Iranian missiles hit Dimona and surrounding areas in southern Israel, says Israeli media

Serdar Dincel |21.03.2026 - Update : 21.03.2026
https://cdnuploads.aa.com.tr/uploads...a.jpg?v=215839Photo:Wisam Hashlamoun/AAISTANBUL
Twenty-three people were injured in Dimona, home to a nuclear facility in southern Israel, following a barrage of missiles launched from Iran, Israeli media reported on Saturday.

The attack marks the seventh missile strike on Dimona and its surroundings since midnight local time (2200GMT), Israel's Channel 12 reported.

Israeli ambulance services provided medical treatment and evacuated the wounded to a hospital, the outlet added.

Hostilities in the region have escalated since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, with Tehran retaliating with repeated drone and missile strikes targeting Israel and Gulf countries hosting US military assets.

Apparently around 90% of tbe "energy supplies" that pass through the Straits of Hormuz goes to Asia.

Sri Lanka has reportedly already reduced working days for government institutions and is rationing fuel for the public.

Over the horizon?

Salute!

On The other Hand, maybe those in need further east could've/shoudl've have done something earlier, maybe even help now before it repeats, but I'll be damned other than building a pipeline across Oman like the Chinese did, and U.S. did with Alaska to minimize use of Bering Sea.

Gums

I believe you are wrong. With due respect.
Honestly I think the western media has got themselves over excited by the whole situation. Yes Trump jumped in with bad advice from his bumbling administration.

But in reality even the most optimistic Iranian leader knows he has a target on his back. They're losing and they know it.

I see this as history.

This doesn't seem like something that a health regime - with time on its side - would take...

10 million worth ~$7 - and that's their largest denomination.:eek:​​​​​​​

Hope you are right. Never mind: anything bought and paid for now will be more expensive in a year's time.

A USMC core competency.

Sal’s synopsis of Maritime Matters in the Persian Gulf over the last 3 weeks.

Shades of anchors in my brain.... tanker anchors, airborne tankers...red, white and blue anchor orbits over Laos, a hundred of we mudbeaters, Migcap, chaff birds and Weasels topping off and then heading north...maybe 15 minutes until party time. First Weasels and sweep birds coming back for egress gas, those things are always low and gas, heh. Quite a sight that clear sunny December day, 1972.
But checks to do, peak at the map on my knee, check stations and select, and then set release interval/spacing. No Master arm or mode yet, wait until over the fence. Wife asks if the wings were good. I grab the half empty beer. ohhhhh....
So right now, tonight at 2343 zulu, I see the tankers in their orbits over Saudi and a P-8 just dropping off of a KC-46. Must be a mini-AWACS huh? No lights or buffs squawking, hmm. I wish them well and good ride home after their drop.
So eerie for me,the scene couldn't be 54 years ago, could it?

Gums recalls...

Obviously this will become history, whatever the rights & wrongs, whatever the outcome.

Next target

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....fada8f7a5d.png

Why they haven’t turned out the lights yet is a mystery to me.

So we condemn Russia for attacking Ukrainian electrical infrastructure but threaten to do the same to Iran in a war of choice?

The maritime threat is one of the potential losses of the merchant vessels, and of the obvious risk to the defending naval assets which are by far more valuable than any VLCC + cargo. A CVN just adds additional opportunity to the other team. The problem is, the rounds inbound such as Shaheeds etc are a fraction of the costs of the harm they can inflict on the screening fleet.

Seems to me there is a good case for RIBs with a few stabilised M134s and same for some .50 cals, as everything goes better with a 50. Intermediate range threats such as 155's are a counter battery target, but today, that needs to be done by standoff, or loitering munitions operating up to the limit range of the 155s with base bleed.

Russia providing intel to Iran places Vlad the bestie of the WH in a problematic status, perhaps the US should give Russia a stern warning, but Alaska would be more likely to be on the menu. :} I guess it only matters if the WH actually cares for the troops that appear to be getting marching orders to go and do glorious stuff for the supreme being, while Russia is being gifted a windfall while assisting Iran to kill US servicepersons. Not something you would have expected in the past, so that is apparently what progress looks like.

I keep thinking of Tom Leher’s “Send the Marines”
Still relevant 60+ years later

Who would they be a threat to?

I do love a 50 shoot, it’s a great fall sport as money has to be spent before the next fiscal year.

We seem to be mostly old enough to be familiar with Tom Lehrer, but a link for anyone who isn't.

Reference the threat to wipe out Iran’s power stations.

Well Trump and Putin might not know attacking civilian energy infrastructure except when it is being used for a military purpose is against International Humanitarian Law, and the DoD Law of War manual , but the USAF should do.

It will be interesting to see what happens and if fine words are overtaken by “I was just obeying orders”

I await developments with interest and curiosity then if the operation is launched and sustained from the Arabian Sea. That will require trivia like consent to over fly other nations’ sovereign territory.

Ineteresting article about the use of the much un-loved Enterprise class LCS in Operation Epic Fury. 2 for minehunting duties, 1 as a launch pad for Lucas drones (the US reverse engineered Shahed drones).

A fairly suspect, probably AI, created narration, but lots of good information.

And presumably any nation that allowed such attacks to operate from its airfields would be complicit in a war crime ...

Looks like they got the bomb dump……

Video

I doubt that the USA will swallow 6 digit body bags coming home. You will fight an Russia Ukraine style drone war with 10km+ kill zones in an mountainous terrain against a trained military which fought a 8 year war against Iraq with 500k casualties. Afghanistan would have been easy in comparison. How did this work out after trillions spent. This is utter madness. You will alienate even the most regime change friendly persons there. In the meantime the Strait will be closed for years.
Can you guarantee that over time China and Russia will not support Iran with technology and intelligence in drones, rockets, quiet underwater drones which reach CVNs undetected, nukes, and real time satellite intelligence? This is not Afghanistan where the threats are mainly IEDs and small arms fire.

Could any of our experts explain why the news of the Diego Garcia attack attempt and the possible threat to London was notified to the world by Israel ? Do we, Brits, not have area threat coverage for such an important base ? Are our military planners unable to make such assessments on our behalf ? :confused:

This much vaunted regime change cannot happen without a serious number of boots on the ground since all the weapons are in the hands of the regime.

A ground offensive will be fraught with difficulties, dangers and high body counts.

Even if such change could be achieved, what will be the cost of rebuilding the country and who will pay for that?

What has the war cost the US already, both in terms of hard cash and ruined alliances?

Suppose a naval escort starts to work in the SoH, the Iranians only have to get lucky once and the waterway is both blocked and polluted with oil.

There is a way out but it involves actual diplomacy (difficult with the low level of trust in the US this year) but it could be done - perhaps Trump could employ Obama as a trustworthy ambassador and negotiator?

The military solution just isn't going to work, just like it didn't in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan but, just as when those were live events, the politicians and their advisors are more worried about votes at home and losing face so continued threats and bombing will continue until finally realisation dawns in the cold light of day.

Is the UK the only European nation from which USAF combat operations are taking place?