|
Over the past 15 years, he has been Iran’s most influential powerbroker in Iraq and Syria, leading Tehran’s efforts to consolidate its presence in both countries and trying to reshape the region in its favour....... |
Iran is heavily involved in the Yemeni war amongst others. As has been remarked, a gentle people ruled by monsters. |
On the other hand...
Trump curbs hawks rushing towards conflict with Iran Article in today's The Times. |
@LynehamLad: thanks for that link.
A related link quotes Former Sec Def Gates: (He always seemed to me to have a good head on his shoulders). Robert Gates, ever a realist as US defence secretary from 2006 to 2011, once said that any Pentagon chief who advised an American president to launch another land invasion in the Middle East would need his head examined. After the prolonged insurgency in Iraq following the US-led invasion in 2003, Mr Gates had Iran in mind. Seven years ago, in retirement, he warned that any military strike against Iran, whether by the US or Israel, would have “catastrophic” consequences. Despite his predecessor’s misgivings, Patrick Shanahan, the acting defence secretary who has now been selected by President Trump for the top job if confirmed by the Senate, has dusted off and revised the Pentagon’s contingency plan for military confrontation with Iran. |
I suppose the US DOD could just twiddle its collective Thumbs and hope Iran does not kick off the fracas and use that as Plan "A".
I very much hope they have Plans "B" thru "Z" on file and brought up to date in case Plan "A" is OTBE. |
Dear SASless:
There's a CONPLAN for just about everything. Yours in deep psychic pain, A retired field grade officer (My brain still hurts, Mr Gumby, and it's been about 15 years since I touched one) |
IMHO, recent urgent visit of Pompeo to Russia and his talks not only with Lavrov (his counter-part), but with Putin too, was aimed at discussion about Iran, though it was not announced. If so, it is good that US are interested in deep analysis. But it is bad that a military option is still on the table.
|
I think you always have a military option but you need to remember its the LAST resort and if you use it things rarely turn out as you'd planned , wished or hoped - it may be just better than the alternative
Wasn't it Isaac Asimov who wrote "violence is the last refuge of the incompetent"?? |
But it is bad that a military option is still on the table. Can one deal with Nutters like the Mullahs from anything but a position of strength? Hand shakes can still be done while you hold a Mace in the other! |
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ilian-aircraft Iran says 'there will be no war' as US warns of risk to civilian aircraft Iran’s foreign minister said on Saturday “there will be no war” with the US, since “nobody in the region is suffering from a hallucination to think that he is able to confront Iran”. Nonetheless, US diplomats warned commercial airliners flying over the Persian Gulf that they faced a risk of being “misidentified” amid heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran......... On Saturday, a warning from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) relayed by US diplomatic posts underlined increased risks in a region crucial to global air travel and where Lloyd’s of London has warned of increasing risk to maritime shipping. The order relayed on Saturday by US diplomats in Kuwait and the UAE came from an FAA Notice to Airmen published late on Thursday. It said all commercial aircraft flying over the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman needed to be aware of “heightened military activities and increased political tension”. This presents “an increasing inadvertent risk to US civil aviation operations due to the potential for miscalculation or misidentification”, the warning said. It also said aircraft could experience interference with navigation instruments and communications jamming “with little to no warning”. Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways all said they were aware of the notice and operations were unaffected. Oman Air did not respond to a request for comment. The warning appeared rooted in what happened 30 years ago after Operation Praying Mantis, a daylong naval battle in the Persian Gulf between US forces and Iran during the country’s long war with Iraq. On 3 July 1988, the USS Vincennes chased Iranian speedboats, which allegedly opened fire on a helicopter, into Iranian territorial waters. The US ship then mistook an Iran Air plane heading to Dubai for an Iranian F-14. The Vincennes fired two missiles, killing all 290 people onboard the flight...... |
Does anyone REALLY think the USA is about to start another war in the Middle East? Especially when the current president is mulling another 4 year stint?
Not a hope to be honest ............. |
Quote: "What is different about these drones?Satellites technically allow drones to be flown from halfway around the world, as many military drones are, but they also need a second pilot station with line-of-sight access to take off and land. The is due to the delay in satellite communications - albeit minor - which causes delays that can be fatal for a drone coming in to land. The Iranians and Houthis have no known communications satellites and would need to rely on commercially available satellite space. All this means that imagery analysts, communications experts, uplink engineers, two-pilot crews, armourers and mechanics all need to work in unison for an attack to succeed. |
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 10477062)
The Iranians and Houthis have no known communications satellites and would need to rely on commercially available satellite space.
(The [enclosed in square brackets} h2 ; / h2 is what was doing it to you) For Asturias56 Does anyone REALLY think the USA is about to start another war in the Middle East? |
Is there not a mobile phone system in the middle east which is satellite based rather than using terrestrial cells? Perhaps this is used for control and command of remote systems?
|
Thanks, Lonewolf_50.
|
In the WSJ today:-Extract:- |
Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
(Post 10478905)
That will certainly help to calm things down... /Perception is everything |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 10477151)
Nope, which makes the "rabid dog" act Bolton is playing strike a lot of false notes.
Bolton wants a war but Trump will not give him that even when Bolton sets up a Liberty / Gulf of Tonkin incident. Bolton is of course a Chickenhawk from Vietnam days. |
In the absence of any official announcement, and reading between the lines from various different sources, I have picked up two hints as to what happened to the ships anchored outside Fujairah.
One article says they were limpet mines, and another said that the 'shrapnel' found was of the type used by Iran's Revolutionary Guards. A Japanese tanker was attacked in the Persian Gulf from behind in similar mysterious circumstances some years ago. At first sight no explosive residue. The Japanese ship looked as though it had been punched by a giant fist. The latest Norwegian ship looks like someone took a can opener to the stern at the water line. If these were meant to be a warning, with no loss of oil, then perhaps the explosive charge was lessened in some way. (?) Since 'they' hit ships 'to the east' of Fallujah in the Gulf of Oman, that would suggest to me that their escape route lay on that side. The Houthis in Yemen probably do not yet have quite that reach. And if the US was threatening to cut off Iran's oil exports and passage through the Strait of Hormuz, then it would be logical for Iran to give the nod to any entity able to hit the end of the UAE's overland Hormuz-bypassing pipeline operations in Fujairah, if only as a tit-for-tat warning. |
Or you could look at Gulf of Tonkin revisited where certain parties in US Govt need a war but CinC is very clear one is not going to happen. |
Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 10482696)
So....are you saying it was a US CIA Covert Op to attack Tankers with the goal of Iran being blamed for the attacks?
Defining who will benefit most is generally a good way to see where the back trail leads to. |
Lengthy article in the WSJ today.
BEIRUT—A U.S. conclusion that Iran was behind recent strikes on oil tankers has reignited concern about Iran’s ability to wage guerrilla warfare in one of the world’s most vital waterways. In the recent tanker incident, the U.S. military concluded that Iranian divers planted timed magnetic mines on four ships, a U.S. official told The Wall Street Journal. The mines exploded within 53 minutes of each other, creating similar holes up to five meters square, the official said. |
Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
(Post 10482925)
Lengthy article in the WSJ today.
BEIRUT—A U.S. conclusion that Iran was behind recent strikes on oil tankers has reignited concern about Iran’s ability to wage guerrilla warfare in one of the world’s most vital waterways. Is journalist now "believeable" where as a couple of years ago when he worked for Guardian he wasn't. |
Originally Posted by racedo
(Post 10483000)
But again zero proof only a claim
, as US forces in area then they would have track of all vessels in area. A signature sound byte of garden variety CT nonsense: asserting that their big, bad evil cause of all harm is blessed with omniscience. Strange said evidence is nowhere. Are you? Betting the answer is no. Critical thinking 101: what you perceive as absence of evidence ("hey, nobody told me!") is not in fact evidence of absence. All it means it that nobody put you on the cc line. (Me either). In Your Defense: it may be pure BS too. One really doesn't know, from the outside looking in. Is journalist now "believeable" where as a couple of years ago when he worked for Guardian he wasn't. No. 1. Consider the source 2. Take each case on its own merits, or lack thereof. 3. Stop assuming that the target of your ire is all knowing, all powerful, and all seeing. I found Jokiholistix post to be a worthwhile insight. |
Originally Posted by Two's in
(Post 10478951)
Honestly Lyneham Lad, you're so suspicious. Next thing you know it'll be some wild theory about how convenient it is that Arms sales are bypassing Congress just as the Acting Sec Def turns out to be a former CEO of a major Defense Contractor...
/Perception is everything Remember the "arms sales still on despite that murder in Turkey" deal? This is Trump being Trump. "Increased sales! Yes!" That seems to be his guiding principle. I sometimes get the idea that President Trump may believe that he gets a residual, or a percentage or a comission, on US sales to foreign countries when he's president. (Newsflash: No, Mr President, you don't). |
Originally Posted by racedo
(Post 10482752)
Nope but there are a "lot" of people (Countrys plus big business) who would be very very happy if Iran could be proven to have done it.
Defining who will benefit most is generally a good way to see where the back trail leads to. Or, in other words, follow the money. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 10483695)
The US intel folks have no duty to answer to you, an internet nobody enamored of conspiracy theories.
Really? I've been in US forces at sea in various places on the globe. We never 'knew it al." (We did keep track of a lot, though). USN / FAF were flying overhead when this occurred.............. see the original media reports. Also doubt Omani's have zero capability for tracking what is around. Your absense of evidence is correct BUT you also have to look at whose agenda it suits when it occurred. US media claiming initially that the ships were targeted because 2 going to the US, nobody seems to want to explain how people would know when a tanker leaving it is heading to the US, master of vessel will have an idea but knows that can and does change all the time. |
2 more tankers had unfortunate accidents yesterday the 13th June, as reported by the BBC
see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48633016 |
Race,
Take a deep breath please. You think the American Media has the inside line on this story....do recall it is a Republican Administration.....Obama's crowd departed almost three years ago. You challenge your own logic by saying destinations often change for outbound Tankers....that is true...but they do depart with some destination given....otherwise which way would the Captain know to point his vessel? Commonsense says the Tankers are headed to consumers....take your pick of any except for Iran which does not need to import much oil right now. If Plod stops a known burglar late at night and discovers him with a pry bar and lock picks in his possession....would not he be right to assume the guy was up to no good? You do not know what the various Intelligence Agencies and Militaries know about the May incident or this one....yet you sure want to let on like you are in the know somehow and seem to think we should just accept what you offer. You don't know...and are only offering mere uninformed conjecture. Just what are you basing your opinion on besides fantasy? |
Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 10493909)
Race,
Take a deep breath please. You think the American Media has the inside line on this story....? |
Originally Posted by racedo
(Post 10493954)
US Media have zero line on any story unless they are told they have one...............
|
Originally Posted by Blossy
(Post 10494449)
I along with many others find your anti-American attitude tiring and tedious. Can't you think of anything nice (or even neutral) to post on here?
Happy ? |
"destinations often change for outbound Tankers....that is true...but they do depart with some destination given....otherwise which way would the Captain know to point his vessel? Commonsense says the Tankers are headed to consumers....take your pick of any except for Iran which does not need to import much oil right now."
Actually they often leave WITHOUT a final destination - they head for "Europe" or "N America" and their final destination is chosen when the cargo owner decides where he/she can get the best deal. And sometimes if the price falls suddenly they'll park up for a while somewhere (like Falmouth in the UK) until they decide what the best option is. "You do not know what the various Intelligence Agencies and Militaries know about the May incident or this one....yet you sure want to let on like you are in the know somehow and seem to think we should just accept what you offer." Lets just remember that believing in the word of the Intelligence community hasn't necessarily been an intelligent thing to do over the last few decades - Indian Intelligence in 1962, Russian intelligence in 1979, the USA in Vietnam, the British in 1982, and the whole Iraqi WOMD saga are all examples of catastrophic misjudgments |
Well it’s one way to start a war....... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48865030 Oil tanker bound for Syria detained in Gibraltar https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8989371.html Iran threatens to seize British oil tanker in retaliation unless ship taken by Royal Marines off Gibraltar released |
But again zero proof only a claim.... |
Originally Posted by Mil-26Man
(Post 10510248)
This, from racedo. I nearly died laughing.
|
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 10510184)
Well it’s one way to start a war....... Or at least for a Foreign Secretary and underdog in a Conservative Leadership Contest to try to raise his profile and convince the Conservative Party Membership that he's a tough guy ..... |
Quote: Originally Posted by Mil-26Man https://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif This, from racedo. I nearly died laughing. Thank you for your insightful contribution to the thread and giving your personal point of view. Oh wait you didn't bother with any of that. |
Seight
Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: UK Age: 48 Posts: 1 That's some lurking, Seight. Welcome aboard.... |
Thanks - I'll try to behave !
|
| All times are GMT. The time now is 04:58. |
Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.