Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11905702)

Yep. U-235 is actually not very radioactive, with a half life of approximately 700 million years. For reference, the shorter the half life the more radioactive emissions. For example, P-238 has a half life of about 88 years and is used in space craft for thermo-electric generators because of its heat of decay. P-239, used in weapons, has a half life of about 24,000 years. Not nice stuff, but atomic bomb pits were handled in open air back in the Los Alamos days; just don't breath the dust.

Originally Posted by TWT (Post 11905741)

There's a good chance the MOP's won't go deep enough as the IAEA says the most sensitive areas, which they claim to have
visited, are half a mile underground.

Only one way to find out.

Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11905635)

Latest reports seem to indicate a strike plan has been approved, but Trump is waiting to see if the Iranians will still come to the table - ignoring the learned experience that they've been salami slicing the west for the last 10-15 years on the nuclear issue.
Also Israel definitely has a plan to enter Fordo using special forces, and have informed the US - crazy brave.If the Israelis decide to enter Fordow from the ground, using special forces to destroy the centrifuge halls, what might that operation look like?

ChatGPT said:

A ground operation by Israeli special forces to enter and destroy Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) would be one of the most daring and logistically complex military operations in modern history. Fordow is built deep inside a mountain, near the city of Qom, and is one of Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facilities. Here's what such an operation might involve, based on known capabilities and military doctrine:

🔍 Mission Objectives

• Infiltrate the Fordow site undetected.
  
• Access the underground centrifuge halls.
  
• Plant demolition charges to destroy or severely disable uranium enrichment capabilities.
  
• Exfiltrate the team safely, if possible.
  

🚧 Operational Challenges

1. Location & Fortification
   • Fordow is buried under 80–100 meters of rock.
     
   • Built to withstand aerial bombardment (deep-earth facility).
     
   • Surrounded by IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) troops and advanced surveillance.
     
   • Limited access roads and entrance points, which are likely booby-trapped or guarded.
     
2. Distance
   • ~1,000–1,500 km from Israel.
     
   • Surrounded by hostile territory.
     
   • Requires covert insertion and extraction, likely without access to nearby friendly bases.
     
3. Time on Target
   • High risk of detection; must move fast.
     
   • May need to neutralize security personnel and surveillance silently.
     

🪂 Possible Insertion Methods

1. Airborne Infiltration
   • C-130 or C-17 aircraft flying at low altitude, dropping Sayeret Matkal or Shayetet 13 via HALO (High Altitude, Low Opening) parachute jumps.
     
   • Helicopter insertion (e.g., CH-53 Yasur or Sikorsky UH-60) if a nearby landing zone can be secured.
     
2. Overland Infiltration
   • Through Kurdish territory in northern Iraq (using Mossad or Kurdish contacts).
     
   • Disguised as Iranian military or civilians, using months of preparation and linguistic/cultural training.
     
3. Underground Sabotage
   • Unlikely but theoretically possible: a tunneling operation using robotics or mining equipment pre-positioned through sabotage teams or sympathetic locals.
     

💣 Attack Tactics

• Shaped charges to penetrate the centrifuge halls from access corridors.
  
• Use of thermobaric or specialized explosive devices to collapse or damage tunnel structures.
  
• Possibly include EMP devices to damage electronics and control systems.
  
• Plant time-delayed explosives to allow exfiltration before detonation.
  

🛡️ Deception & Diversion

• Simultaneous cyberattacks to disable alarms or communications.
  
• Decoy drone or missile attacks elsewhere in Iran (e.g., Natanz or Isfahan) to distract IRGC forces.
  
• Use of Iranian uniforms, fake documentation, and fake vehicles for deception.
  

🚁 Extraction Options

• Exfiltration via helicopter to a ship in the Gulf or a base in northern Iraq.
  
• Escape on foot to a safehouse for later pickup by air or land convoy.
  
• In some scenarios, the mission could be considered "no-return" – with operators sacrificing themselves or preparing for capture.
  

🪖 Likely Units Involved

• Sayeret Matkal – elite reconnaissance and counterterrorism unit.
  
• Shayetet 13 – naval commandos, comparable to SEAL Team 6.
  
• Mossad operatives – for local logistics, disguises, and intelligence.
  
• Cyber Units (Unit 8200) – for surveillance, hacking, jamming.
  

🧭 Historical Parallels

• Operation Entebbe (1976) – Israeli commandos flew 4,000 km to rescue hostages.
  
• Operation Orchard (2007) – secret airstrike on Syria’s nuclear reactor.
  
• Iran’s own assassination ops – e.g., targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists by Mossad-linked operatives inside Tehran.
  

🎯 Strategic Risk

• If caught or killed, operators could spark full-scale war.
  
• Would almost certainly be considered an act of war by Iran.
  
• Huge diplomatic fallout even from allies like the US or European nations.
  
• Extremely high political and military risk for Netanyahu or any Israeli PM.
  

💬 Bottom Line

A ground operation into Fordow would be feasible only under extreme conditions and with months or years of planning. It would require local assets, deception, cyber warfare, and elite special forces, and even then would face extraordinary risk. Israel is more likely to attempt sabotage or air-launched deep-penetration strikes using MOPs (Massive Ordnance Penetrators) if available, or covert means, than to risk a commando raid inside the mountain. But in a do-or-die scenario, such a raid can’t be entirely ruled out.

Originally Posted by T28B (Post 11905694)

In answer to your question, even though I am not the authority on such things that Chat GPT is...:rolleyes:
1. Set up an ambush.
2. Position reserves to follow up on the ambush.
3. Parade the bodies of dead enemies through the streets of Tehran.

That's a plan, I am sure others can be dreamed up.

Originally Posted by Bob Viking (Post 11905779)

Israel has attacked the Arak nuclear site.

https://vcdnp.org/wp-content/uploads...facilities.pdf

I think Israel is starting to heavily flirt with the grey areas here. After all, we weren’t happy when Russia did it recently.

As someone who is currently downwind I have to say I’m not a big fan.

BV

Originally Posted by Stuck On The Ground (Post 11905789)

you get the big bucks for working in that rejoin..

Originally Posted by dagenham (Post 11905777)

I don’t think they use chat gpt for mission planning . Icons give it away . What about the space laser while we are at it ?

Originally Posted by TWT (Post 11905748)

Definitely needs Tom Cruise on the job

Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11905855)

IAEA has information the Khondab (former Arak) heavy water research reactor, under construction, was hit.

At present, IAEA has no information indicating the Khondab heavy water plant was hit.

Originally Posted by Zombywoof (Post 11905815)

Here's a rejoinder to that. :) Can't anyone write anymore without AI or autocorrect?