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Originally Posted by gums
(Post 12062867)
I would add that those controlling the ground have a vested interest in the free flow thu Perhaps those who are affected by the closure of the Straits should sow their own mines to ensure the complete destruction of this means of way. Then assist the Gulf states with alternative transportation of oil and gas. |
Originally Posted by fdr
(Post 12063039)
Maybe so, but it was less disturbing than it might have been. The last 24 hours is setting out a scenario of the U.S. calling the cessation pool that has been established as "mission accomplished", and leave the cleanup to everyone else. Once upon a time it was the character of isolationism, which, is a thing, may be good, may be bad, (maybe, as the farmer said). The response of the rest of the world apart from the U.S.A. and Israel was basically hands off, the potential to have adverse consequences was no surprise to anyone, other than the Prez @ 1600 Penn. Bibi knew what would occur; he just didn't care, Had any dialog been undertaken with allies, there may have been some comment on the most obvious problems that may occur. So, the WH didnt bother to tell the U.S> congress, fat chance they would tell allies other than the puppeteer, Bib; game, set match. Thanks for playing, good night.
Saudi, and the rest of the gulf states probably will be wondering why they spent so much money in grift to be handed this ham sandwich, extra bacon. They are not going to be overly happy to need to politely ask for Iran to not intrude excessively in the economies of the states around the pond. All up, Putin, Iran winners, while the U.S. gets the "so much whining! You will get tired of all the whining...". Oddly, that is not the worst possible outcome, but darn it was random, and will likely come back to bite at a later date. If the end game is the US leaving the Strait in a shambles, I suspect that the RoW will just pay the toll and carry on. After all, if you pay $2M to get a U/VLCC passage that is is only a couple of bucks a barrel - way less than the baked in Donny does Iran premium. |
We will see huge political changes in the next decade. We are witnessing that the USA leaves the stage as world policing super power, as did Britain with WW2. Carriers follow the same fate as battle ships in WW2, because you can not protect them efficiently against much cheaper rocket and drone threats. The CVNs did not get nearer as 500nm to Iran and needed the complete battle group ships to protect them, making them ineffective for any other task. It is only a matter of time until stealth high flying bombers like B1, B2, B21 will be shot down by technical savvy countries. The U2 Powers event is assured.
You could foresee the outcome by analyzing the Ukraine war. A savvy country can defend against a much bigger enemy by using modern battle field technology. Ukraine had no navy but the black see is void of Russians fleet. Battle field changed into 20-30km wide no go zones where everything what moves or is otherwise identified gets attacked by drones. Beside the world economy, Trumps ego, his mid term ballot, Israel is the biggest looser of this war. They left Iran with a much more effective leaver than ever. Iran will force to lift any sanctions and get 2 million a ship for the opening of SoH. What do you think they will do with all this hard cash flowing into the country in the next decade? |
The US has effectively ceded the Persian Gulf to Iran, China and Russia, given there's zero chance shipping is going to operate in it unhindered without Iran's say-so.
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Further to the recent Korean SAM delivery to the UAE.
South Korea quietly won the missile defense arms race, and almost nobody noticed. While Washington was busy explaining why Patriot batteries cost as much as a small country’s GDP, Seoul’s Cheongung system went 29 for 30 in its combat debut over Iranian airspace. That is a 96.7% kill rate. In real missiles. In a real war. LIG Nex1 built a system that works better and costs a fraction of the price. Gulf nations are already calling. The order books are filling up. South Korea just became the most interesting arms exporter on the planet. The Patriot lobby will not enjoy this week. |
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An Israeli airstrike reportedly targeted the residence of Kamal Kharazi in Tehran, seriously injuring him and killing his wife. He previously served as Iran's ambassador to the UN and as foreign minister during Khatami's presidency. He's served as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council since 2022. He's currently the head of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, a state-run think tank that advises the Supreme Leader. He had a close personal relationship with Ali Khamenei. Khamenei's son, Masoud, married Kamal's niece. |
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ri...st/ar-AA1ZW3qo
Washington Post: Risky commando plan to seize Iran’s uranium came at Trump’s request The U.S. military has given the president a plan to seize nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium in Iran that would involve flying in excavation equipment and building a runway for cargo planes to take the radioactive material out, according to two people familiar with the matter. The complex plan was briefed to the president in the past week after he asked for a proposal, they said, as were its significant operational risks. Trump’s request for the plan, previously unreported, signals his interest in contemplating what would be an unusually sensitive and high-stakes special operations mission. The administration’s consideration of such an operation was first reported by the Wall Street Journal. Limiting Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear weapon remains a top goal of the administration. But this plan, experts say, would represent an enormously difficult endeavor of a type never before attempted during wartime. The mission would require the airlift of potentially hundreds or thousands of troops and heavy equipment to support the excavation and recovery of radioactive material. That could take weeks, former defense officials have estimated, and take place under fire deep inside Iran. Administration officials recently presented Iran with a 15-point proposal to end the war by reportedly demanding, among other things, that Tehran relinquish its highly enriched uranium — what Trump has called “nuclear dust.” Iran has rejected the U.S. proposal, although it suggested in negotiations just before the war began that it could “dilute” the enriched material to a lower level. “This would be one of, if not the largest, most complicated special operations in history,” said Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense and retired CIA and Marine officer. “It’s a major risk to the force.” In another sign of Trump’s interest in pursuing such an operation, he encouraged Americans to tune in to a show by Fox News host Mark Levin, a staunch pro-Israel advocate, on Saturday. During the episode, Levin said the United States should deploy “specialized” ground troops to snatch Iran’s uranium stockpiles. “Why would we need troops on the ground? Well, there’s a lot of reasons — and we wouldn’t need 300,000 of them. It’s this uranium,” Levin said. Trump, who campaigned on a promise to end wars, now finds himself entering the fifth week of a conflict he started, one conducted mostly by air in coordination with Israel. Launching an ambitious ground operation to seize the uranium would involve the deployment of commandos and a host of other troops and support personnel, introducing a significant new level of risk to the military. “It’s the job of the Pentagon to make preparations in order to give the Commander in Chief maximum optionality. It does not mean the President has made a decision,” White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a written response to questions about the plan. With polls showing a majority of Americans opposed to the war and, in particular, to sending in ground troops, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday sought to portray the president as a bold leader. “As President Trump has said time and time again for years and in this administration, Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb — and it won’t,” Hegseth said at a Pentagon press briefing, speaking about one motive for the war. In June, the United States bombed nuclear facilities in Iran. But according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has stockpiled about 970 pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent — just short of weapons-grade level. More than half is stored in a nuclear facility outside Isfahan, a historic city in central Iran, in tunnels more than 300 feet deep, according to IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, with the rest located at the Natanz nuclear site and, potentially, other areas. Satellite imagery from early June published by France’s Le Monde newspaper and analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security showed a large flatbed truck carrying 18 blue barrels toward the southern entrance of the Isfahan facility. Though it was not possible to reach a definitive conclusion about their contents, the institute assessed that “the best match” was that the barrels contained highly enriched uranium cylinders and were being moved for storage within the tunnel complex days before Israel and then the U.S. launched punishing airstrikes on Iranian targets. Access to the Isfahan storage area, Grossi told reporters during a mid-March Washington visit for high-level meetings, remains buried under rubble left by the U.S. bombing in June. Since then, he said, “we haven’t seen big movements” indicating efforts to reach it. “Maybe a car or a truck” in the area, but “not bulldozers digging things out.” The highly enriched material, in the form of uranium hexafluoride gas, is stored in sealed cylinders akin to scuba tanks, each about three feet high. Before it can be used in a weapon, it must be additionally enriched to more than 90 percent and processed into a metal. Describing an inspection visit to the Isfahan site just before the June airstrikes, Grossi said the cylinders are “not very big” and “not specially protected,” although it is possible that some “decoys” have been placed among them to confuse and impede anyone trying to remove them. While not privy to any military decisions, he said, “what I can say is that this considerable amount of material … is highly contaminant, so there could be some contamination if there was a direct hit on it.” To get to the buried Isfahan stockpile, “you have to get excavation equipment, break through the concrete and the lead shield” and any other protective covering, “and then you somehow have to get to the bottom of this silo and remove the containers full of nuclear material and fly them out,” said one of the two people familiar with the matter, both of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. Estimates on how long that would take vary, ranging from weeks to several months. The best way to recover the material would be after a ceasefire and accompanied by IAEA personnel, said retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who has led both U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command. “But if you have to fight your way in,” he said, it could be feasible. “There’s a lot of risks associated with it. This is a very high order of complexity. There likely will be casualties,” he said. “But this is the problem set for U.S. Special Operations forces. It’s what we do. We have people who are specifically trained to go into these types of environments.” The scale and complexity would make the mission extraordinarily difficult, but it is possible, according to a former defense official with direct knowledge of Iran war plans and Special Operations capabilities. “Short of a largely symbolic quick strike to demonstrate we could do more, to recover much or all of the material requires a temporary occupation,” the former official said. Former commandos and officials described the extraordinary complexities surrounding such an operation. The logistics would probably start with striking Iranian defenses and equipment to create safer passage for the ground troops, who would then fly hundreds of miles into the country to establish a defense perimeter at the facilities. One option, experts have speculated, is the Army’s 82nd Airborne and Rangers parachuting to seize the ground, which could be within range of enemy artillery, missiles and drones. From there, engineers would probably build an airstrip to bring in supplies and equipment, some of which may be airdropped from cargo aircraft or slung from utility helicopters. Both options would leave the slower-moving transport aircraft vulnerable to enemy fire. Keeping the heavy excavation work going would require a deep bench of support troops, officials said. Mechanics, drivers, refuelers and others would work round-the-clock. Food and water would need constant resupply. Civilian nuclear specialists from the Energy Department and other agencies also would probably be on-site, former officials said, to assess risks and supervise the uranium removal. The operations to house, feed and protect personnel would probably look more like a small base than a low-profile, clandestine mission. The effort to blast through the rock and enter the storage area would be the start of a grueling, yard-by-yard process for commandos to enter the abyss of a facility thick with unknowns. Breaching teams, possibly from the Army’s Delta Force or Navy SEALs, would wield saws and blow torches to get past obstacles inside the underground facility while shooters covered them, according to a former special operator with experience training for such missions. The commandos would wear protective uniforms and rebreathers, carrying sensors to detect radioactive threats. The teams would have to be mindful that anything they shoot, explode or cut through could disturb dangerous material. Concerns about radioactive exposure would require arduous and repeated decontamination of personnel and equipment. There might be booby traps. “It is slow, meticulous and can be an extremely deadly process,” the former operator said. The exfiltration process would also expose troops, equipment and nuclear material to potential Iranian attacks as scores of personnel are airlifted back out through enemy airspace. The operation would make complex, high-stakes missions look simple by comparison, former officials said. The raids to capture Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and kill Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, for instance, were measured in minutes and hours. The entire process in Iran, even if the operation goes relatively smoothly, could take weeks, former officials estimated. “It starts to look like you’re not just buying a car on the lot, you’re buying the entire assembly line,” the former defense official said. There are probably only a few dozen troops trained to retrieve nuclear material from behind enemy lines, and the proficiency has declined since the Cold War, the former official said, adding that nuclear retrieval scenarios were focused on terrorists and North Korea in recent years. “There was a lot more attention on planning for these sorts of seizures or denying the North Koreans access” to nuclear materials, the former official said. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12063182)
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Bomber Mission 50 - Another Triple B-1 Run #FreeIran! --- Operation EPIC FURY --- Yesterday morning (1st April 2026), RAF Fairford (EGVA) launched a flight of 3 B-1B "Lancer" bombers as "LATER" flight - the second time this callsign has been used by bombers on #OperationEpicFury missions from the UK. Unusually for this mission, all of the aerial refuelling on the outbound and return legs of this journey were carried out by tankers from Sofia (LBSF). Involved aircraft were: Mission 50: B-1B "LATER51" 85-0060 #AE6BD1 "Doolittle Raiders" B-1B "LATER52" 85-0069 #AE6BD0 "Avenger" B-1B "LATER53" 86-0108 #AE6BF0 "Aliens with Attitude" KC-135R "PETRO70" 62-3564 #AE07BC KC-135R "PETRO71" 63-7976 #AE038D KC-135R "PETRO72" 60-0318 #AE0376 KC-135R "PETRO73" 62-3569 #AE066E KC-135R "PETRO94" 58-0065 #AE0242 KC-135? (x3) "PETRO95" to "PETRO97" ? Bomber Mission 51 - Via Gibraltar again #FreeIran! --- Operation EPIC FURY --- The second RAF Fairford (EGVA)-launched bomber mission yesterday was also B-1B "Lancer" - this time flying via Gibraltar instead of over France (I know i've had a lot of angry French people in my replies telling me all the bombers have all re-routed - they haven't - yet!) In this instance it mean meeting with Lajes (LPLA)-based tankers on the outbound, and Bucharest (LROP) on the return. Involved were: Mission 51 B-1B "TOGS42" 85-0088 #AE6BE1 (Nickname disputed) B-1B "TOGS43" 86-0138 #AE6C09 "Seek and Destroy" KC-46A "PETRO11" 17-46027 #AE5E08 (From LPLA) KC-46A "PETRO12" 20-46075 #AE63B7 (From LPLA) KC-46A "PETRO13" 19-46108 #AF8444 (From LPLA) KC-46A "PETRO14" 20-46082 #AE63BE (From LPLA) KC-135R "PETRO31" 63-8035 #AE04ED (From LROP) KC-135R "PETRO32" 57-1486 #AE041D (From LROP) KC-135R "PETRO33" 59-1448 #AE047C (From LROP) KC-135R "PETRO34" 58-0073 #AE047A (From LROP) |
Iranian state media reports that the Commander of the Fatehin Special Unit, Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Fathalizadeh, was killed on April 1st. The Fatehin Unit is an elite special forces formation within the Basij that's tasked with maintaining internal security. Fatehin volunteers are trained in airborne and parachute operations, sniper skills, and combat in rugged terrain. Many Fatehin members fought on behalf of Assad's Syria in the civil war. |
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A significant number of high-profile IRGC figures have been killed in airstrikes over the past 48 hours. Those eliminated held key operational, engineering, intelligence, and command roles, dealing a serious blow to the Islamic Republic’s chain of command and battlefield coordination: .
This wave of strikes appears to be systematically targeting leadership, degrading operational capability, and disrupting the regime’s military and intelligence infrastructure. |
Salute!
I had to chuckle reading the ref'd article. This wave of strikes appears to be systematically targeting leadership, degrading operational capability, and disrupting the regime’s military and intelligence infrastructure. Gee. Ya really think that's the goal. Gums sends... |
Could it be possible that these next two weeks are to check what inventory Iran’s got left?
Each time a new target is hit, Iran has been vowing revenge. We then wait for the retaliatory missile(s), or drones. Is Israel (or AI?) watching and counting? |
Originally Posted by gums
(Post 12063252)
Salute!
I had to chuckle reading the ref'd article. ? Gee. Ya really think that's the goal. Gums sends... |
Trying to imagine someone in Iran, who was waiting for promotion for agees- and now realising his time is approaching- faster than expected.
:E |
You wonder with all these assassinations, do the current leaders of the other side believe, that they and their family will die in bed?
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 12063270)
Could it be possible that these next two weeks are to check what inventory Iran’s got left?
Each time a new target is hit, Iran has been vowing revenge. We then wait for the retaliatory missile(s), or drones. Is Israel (or AI?) watching and counting? I think the driver is the Pentagon's target list (let alone Israels) is just that extensive that more time is needed. |
Originally Posted by EDLB
(Post 12063279)
You wonder with all these assassinations, do the current leaders of the other side believe, that they and their family will die in bed?
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12063299)
Or that the Israelis are finding out who the Americans are talking to and killing them, to keep the US in the game?
"Ya know, those grid coordinates for the air strike did seem a bit strange..." |
Originally Posted by artee
(Post 12063197)
What could possibly go wrong?
(Caveats: though I recall the Soviet blockade of Berlin, that far back in kidhood I wasn't paying that much attention. But not long after LBJ took office, my parents - who both essentially preached a sort of "Rosie the Riveter", "Kilroy Was Here" and "Willie and Joe" constant history lesson, made it impossible for younger me not to pay attention to news (such as it was) about such decisions. These caveats are noted inasmuch as there are so many ex-military personages on this thread (and the forum, in general), so that it sometimes seems necessary to say what wild idea makes me think I may have something to add here. And yes, the Berlin blockade led to reading about the Berlin Airlift, and Rosie led to reading about the B-24 Liberator bomber plant at Willow Run.) Was it noticed that the White House Press Secretary, the indefatigable Karoline Leavitt, used the word "optionality"? This matters because the President needs to be presented with specific and detailed plans in order to then decide that the risks and difficulties are too heavy to enable an operation or mission to proceed. The elements of the plan described in the article in just strictly aviation terms (including aviation assets and logistics) are, well, overwhelming. There are voices or interests who appear to be pressing the President to approve a uranium retrieval and extraction mission. By receiving a detailed plan, and seeing what risks and difficulties are presented according to the military officers whose career paths have given them the responsibility to define and assess these factors, the C-I-C then is able to state, with veracity, that the option was considered, and it was decided against. Maybe not publicly stated, but stated as a matter of presidential decision-making process. I'll go back now to trying to get more pages read in Presidents of War (Michael Beschloss 2019). |
Originally Posted by EDLB
(Post 12063279)
You wonder with all these assassinations, do the current leaders of the other side believe, that they and their family will die in bed?
I see the US has asked Poland for their bought and paid for Patriot batteries and they pointed out they are to protect their country and NATO's Eastern flanks, so you can politely F off. |
I am surprised Iran hasn't loaded a bunch of missiles / drones on a freighter, sailed up to the US coast and lobbed them into the Whitehouse etc, after all, he has already removed the wing that was over the top of his not so top secret old bunker.
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Way this demented vanity box is behaving it wouldn't surprise me if he pulled a kill switch (or data equivalent) on the Patriots until he got his own way. I think we must expect this to apply to any US-sourced equipment in future, which makes Korean stuff all the more attractive. Fair point on your missile freighter warning, it may well happen yet.
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 12063327)
I am surprised Iran hasn't loaded a bunch of missiles / drones on a freighter, sailed up to the US coast and lobbed them into the Whitehouse etc, after all, he has already removed the wing that was over the top of his not so top secret old bunker.
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I am surprised Iran hasn't loaded a bunch of missiles / drones on a freighter, sailed up to the US coast and lobbed them into the Whitehouse etc, after all, he has already removed the wing that was over the top of his not so top secret old bunker. https://www.breitbart.com/europe/202...ips-destroyed/ |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 12063327)
I am surprised Iran hasn't loaded a bunch of missiles / drones on a freighter, sailed up to the US coast and lobbed them into the Whitehouse etc, after all, he has already removed the wing that was over the top of his not so top secret old bunker.
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There's all sorts of cabin cruisers in the Caribbean and Bahamas that could be loaded up with drones to target Mar a Lago or attempt to cause indigestion to AF-1's engines - maybe camouflaged as Canada geese:E
Ukrainian expertise would be useful, but they have a few Shahed bones to pick with Iran. Israel is doing very well at plinking Iranian hierarchy, but the local opposition can't regime change without sufficient small arms to stand up to the IRGC. Maybe instead of paratroops and SF, Trump would do better to paradrop guns and ammo. |
Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
(Post 12063416)
There's all sorts of cabin cruisers in the Caribbean and Bahamas that could be loaded up with drones to target Mar a Lago or attempt to cause indigestion to AF-1's engines - maybe camouflaged as Canada geese:E
Thus tit-for-tat is the current rhythm. |
Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
(Post 12063416)
Maybe instead of paratroops and SF, Trump would do better to paradrop guns and ammo.
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
(Post 12063416)
Israel is doing very well at plinking Iranian hierarchy, but the local opposition can't regime change without sufficient small arms to stand up to the IRGC. Maybe instead of paratroops and SF, Trump would do better to paradrop guns and ammo. No idea of that was a one-off or if it's widespread. If it's widespread, the IRGC could quickly find itself in an untenable situation. People tend to remember when you murder tens of thousands of protesters... |
Bridge cut in half.
Updates: Iranian bridge cut in half by strike as Trump warns ‘more to follow’ - BBC News Interdiction = Ground invasion. |
Pete Hegseth fires highest-ranking US Army officer in the middle of Iran war Hmm Possibly, if one was to consider using armed intervention to establish a coherent outcome, one would start with an objective, a plan, assets in place and trusted subordinates. Changing any of these, after the start of hostilities, would look confusing to troops, allies and opponents. |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12063458)
Interdiction = Ground invasion.
"When US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu started this war a month ago, they didn’t have a clear understanding of the nature of the Iranian regime and its defensive capability. They didn’t expect Tehran to counter their offensives with an unprecedented level of preparedness, striking US bases across the Persian Gulf and hitting Israel hard. Nor did they anticipate Tehran would close the Strait of Hormuz, partially or fully, to cause a shortage of oil and gas with severe consequences for the global economy." "What is increasingly clear is the war is unlikely to end by military means. The only way forward is a negotiated settlement. The onus will therefore fall on Trump to pull Netanyahu into line and take the lead on trying to strike a deal." https://theconversation.com/trump-un...campaign=World Affairs Briefing from the UK - 3726538115&utm_content=World Affairs Briefing from the UK - 3726538115+CID_1ebaa8ee6118657cc1a4effb7f2308ab&utm_source=c ampaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=Trump underestimated Irans resilience Now there is only one way out of the war |
Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
(Post 12063416)
There's all sorts of cabin cruisers in the Caribbean and Bahamas that could be loaded up with drones to target Mar a Lago or attempt to cause indigestion to AF-1's engines - maybe camouflaged as Canada geese:E
Ukrainian expertise would be useful, but they have a few Shahed bones to pick with Iran. Israel is doing very well at plinking Iranian hierarchy, but the local opposition can't regime change without sufficient small arms to stand up to the IRGC. Maybe instead of paratroops and SF, Trump would do better to paradrop guns and ammo. feasible. Add to that, if that capability existed, over a month into the conflict one would think it would have been used. |
Originally Posted by langleybaston
(Post 12063420)
Iran's response to unprovoked attack has been
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Originally Posted by safetypee
(Post 12063483)
"When US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu started this war a month ago, they didn’t have a clear understanding of the nature of the Iranian regime and its defensive capability. They didn’t expect Tehran to counter their offensives with an unprecedented level of preparedness, striking US bases across the Persian Gulf and hitting Israel hard. Nor did they anticipate Tehran would close the Strait of Hormuz, partially or fully, to cause a shortage of oil and gas with severe consequences for the global economy."
https://theconversation.com/trump-un...campaign=World Please. |
The latest What is going on with Shipping
Re The Strait of Hormuz There is an Iranian saying "Shotor didi, nadidi" (شتر دیدی؟ ندیدی) You saw a camel, you didn’t see a camel now how would one say “ Tanker? What Tanker? I don’t see a tanker! “ |
I love the Leroy Jenkins reference. :)
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Australia has reportedly deployed SAS troops to the Middle East. According to the Daily Telegraph, 90 Special Air Service personnel will be based at the Al Minhad Air Base near Dubai in the event of war in the region escalating further. It is understood that the troops will not be involved in any US attacks but will instead focus on emergency rescues of diplomats in the region. Defence Minister Richard Marles was asked on Sky News yesterday if Australia was sending any more military assets to the region. Anthony Albanese is maintaining his stance that Australia will not aid in offensive combat in the conflict.
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