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Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11344074)
Messages I’m getting from Iran:
“Tehran on verge of collapse. Leaked: Basij leader there has admitted the possibility of Tehran's fall tonight is extremely high and that the Presidential palace may be attacked. (not as a mod nor admin) I ask any of you: if you've heard rumor or news about the Houthi efforts to force the ships of other nations into their ports, please raise them here. That sort of thing will get many nations interested in the security of their merchant shipping in the Red Sea, and will likely lead to increased Naval and other Military activity (aviation or otherwise). |
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“We have no track record of anyone successfully deterring the Houthis, so we don’t know how they’ll react to force,” said Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “They want to be known as the biggest risk taker in the Axis of Resistance and the only one going toe-to-toe with the U.S.” Unlike Iraq and Syria, the U.S. military has no forces in Yemen. Experts also differ over whether the Houthis are largely acting on their own with Iranian-supplied weapons or are being directed to attack by Tehran. Some former commanders said, however, that there are legitimate military targets controlled by the Houthis in Yemen and the U.S. does not need to wait for the group to launch still more attacks on commercial shipping before taking military action. “You could take action against coastal radars, coastal gun systems, missile systems, those kinds of sites,” said Votel. “There are very clear military targets.” When Votel commanded CENTCOM, the U.S. struck radar sites in Yemen in 2016 in response to missile attacks, including toward the USS Mason, and the Pentagon cited the need to protect shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb as a reason for its actions. Taking military action could have its challenges. Some of the systems may be mobile or could be resupplied. But Votel said it could also have a practical and symbolic impact. “It can degrade their capability in the near term, and at the same time, send a very clear message,” he said. |
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-rebel-attacks
Shipping companies suspend Red Sea traffic after Yemen rebel attacks Two of the world’s largest shipping firms, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have said they are suspending passage through a Red Sea strait vital for global commerce, after Yemeni rebel attacks in the area… German transport company Hapag-Lloyd said it was halting Red Sea container ship traffic until Monday, after the Houthis attacked one of its vessels. “Hapag-Lloyd is interrupting all container ship traffic across the Red Sea until Monday,” the company said in a statement sent to AFP. The Danish firm Maersk made a similar announcement, a little earlier. “We have instructed all Maersk vessels in the area bound to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait to pause their journey until further notice,” it said. Maersk said this followed a “near-miss incident involving Maersk Gibraltar yesterday” as well as Friday’s attack, in which the rebels struck a Hapag-Lloyd cargo ship in the Red Sea. A US defence official identified it as the Liberia-flagged Al-Jasrah, a 368-metre (1,207-foot) container ship built in 2016. “We are aware that something launched from a Houthi-controlled region of Yemen struck this vessel which was damaged, and there was a report of a fire,” the official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity so that he could discuss intelligence matters. The US Central Command in the Middle East (Centcom) confirmed on X that “a UAV” l struck the Al-Jasrah causing a fire that was successfully extinguished. A Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson told AFP: “There has been an attack on one of our ships”. “It was en route from the Greek port of Piraeus to Singapore. There were no casualties and the ship was travelling onward to its destination”, he added. Later in the day during a pro-Palestinian rally in the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, the rebels said they attacked two other ships in the area. “Container ships MSC Palatium and MSC Alanya were targeted by two naval missiles as they were heading toward the Israeli entity,” Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a broadcast on the rebels’ television channel. The rebels said that, in an earlier attack, the Maersk Gibraltar vessel was “targeted with a drone and the hit was direct”. According to a US official, the missile missed. Saree said the attack came after the ship’s crew “refused to respond to the calls of the Yemeni naval services”, and that it was intended as retaliation for the “oppression of the Palestinian people”. Centcom said that the MSC Alanya was only threatened but not struck, while the Palatium was hit by one of two ballistic missiles fired. In a statement posted 9 December on social media, the Houthis said they “will prevent the passage” of ships heading to Israel – regardless of ownership – if food and medicine are not allowed into besieged, Hamas-ruled Gaza…. |
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11555918)
The messaging as regards any strikes needs to be packaged as part of an international response to the threats to shipping. The information war is as important as the kinetic means.
I would assume many of those drone launchers are small and highly mobile - could be quite challenging. |
I suspect a drone launch would be a target of opportunity. One would have to lucky to catch one and the time to respond may well be less the flight time of the countermeasure. Do the associated logistics present a better opportunity?
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BP have announced they have temporarily suspended all shipments through the Red Sea and Suez canal until situation is resolved.
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Egypt is going to love the loss of revenue from the Suez Canal. Not.
Perhaps the Houthis think that Egypt can/should bring more pressure to bear. Iran seems to delight in causing nuisance at a distance, with layers of deniability, getting others to do their dirty work, "Not me mate!" |
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 11558670)
Egypt is going to love the loss of revenue from the Suez Canal. Not.
Perhaps the Houthis think that Egypt can/should bring more pressure to bear. Iran seems to delight in causing nuisance at a distance, with layers of deniability, getting others to do their dirty work, "Not me mate!" As to Iran enjoying this: yes.
Originally Posted by Ninthace
(Post 11558656)
I suspect a drone launch would be a target of opportunity. One would have to lucky to catch one and the time to respond may well be less the flight time of the countermeasure. Do the associated logistics present a better opportunity?
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11558555)
I would assume many of those drone launchers are small and highly mobile - could be quite challenging.
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Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11558555)
Answers the question I had - how easy would it be to strike the Houthis?
I would assume many of those drone launchers are small and highly mobile - could be quite challenging. |
Pretty soon Iran could be sending them their latest export, spoofing equipment, recently being tested over Iraq.
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Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ensuring Freedom of Navigation in the Red Sea
Dec. 18, 2023 | The recent escalation in reckless Houthi attacks originating from Yemen threatens the free flow of commerce, endangers innocent mariners, and violates international law. The Red Sea is a critical waterway that has been essential to freedom of navigation and a major commercial corridor that facilitates international trade. Countries that seek to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation must come together to tackle the challenge posed by this non-state actor launching ballistic missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) at merchant vessels from many nations lawfully transiting international waters. This is an international challenge that demands collective action. Therefore, today I am announcing the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an important new multinational security initiative under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of its Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea. Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity. |
ORAC, the UN Security Council just met on this topic, and have resolved to do bloody **** all.
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You don't have to work within the UN
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This is a threat to international commerce that impacts most of the nations on our planet.
And the UN are as useless as tits on a bull. |
News reporting America preparing for air strikes on Houthi positions.
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Well, that was predictable, but what ever happened to OPSEC? :mad:
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11559832)
Well, that was predictable, but what ever happened to OPSEC? :mad:
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 11559976)
Maybe it's deliberate. Tell them you are coming to get them and they will do two things. Come out for a fight and loose or, run away so job done?
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Looks like the naval coalition is falling apart due to control being in the hands of the White House and not DoD…
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that's hardly a well informed source ORAC - some nutty ex -driller...............
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3 separate sources noting that the French have pulled out - and I’ll add several other European countries have declined to take part.
Further confirmation… It appears that France is withdrawing from Op Prosperity Guardian and will be conducting their own escort operation. They are making overtures to other European Union nations to escort EU-owned vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb against the Houthi. The delays in the implementation of the operation seem to be the issue. With US-flagged vessels stuck in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, it does appear that there are issues in its implementation across department lines - Dept of Defense, State Dept, CENTCOM, US Navy and US 5th Fleet. This does not bode well that the Houthi can disrupt 15% of the world's trade and there is no means to escort ships by the US Navy. |
ORAC, there were two separate maritime Task Groups in the Adriatic back in the early 90's: a WEU one (Sharp Fence) and a NATO one (Maritime Guard) which eventually merged into Operation Sharp Guard. (A joint Op, as it were).
It is not a surprise to see the French and EU members have an op that is scoped to their needs only. In time they may choose to merge with the USN+Japan+et al operation, but politically there may be constraints or objectives that don't match at the moment. |
Personally I think it is time for some tough love. The Houthi blockade is ruinous for all of the Gulf Countries economies. They want it both ways, The US keeps trade essential to their economies going while they denounce US actions over the Gaza war. The US should tell all shipping companies go around the Cape and all the Gulf states, this is your lake you can fix it. Yes there will be a short term hit to Western economies due to increased shipping costs but consumes will still get their toasters and running shoes, but the hit will be far more consequential and immediate to the Gulf Countries. Time they become part of the solution instead of part of the problem.
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well yes - the problem is who can control/influence the Houthis? Remember the UAE and Saudi fought them for seven years and really didn't get anywhere. From a military point of view Yemen is very like Afghanistan - you can kill people but it doesn't stop them.
The only people with any influence (and it's a far way from control) is Iran - and that opens a much larger can of worms |
Given the impact on its exports, i wonder if China will get involved with their brand new shiny navy...
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 11561278)
Given the impact on its exports, i wonder if China will get involved with their brand new shiny navy...
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China, like Iran and Russia are not seen as the enemy.
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 11561301)
China, like Iran and Russia are not seen as the enemy.
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 11561346)
But ships carrying Chinese cargo very much are
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Originally Posted by CISTRS
(Post 11561295)
I would think that ice rated cargo ships and the Arctic route to Europe is the way China would go, should this situation persist.
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India drone strike: Cargo ship attacked off Gujarat coast
On BBC News.
A cargo ship was struck by a drone off the coast of the western Indian state of Gujarat on Saturday. The Liberia-flagged chemical products tanker was linked to Israel, according to maritime security firm Ambrey, and was heading from Saudi Arabia to India. The attack sparked a fire onboard the ship which was put out, but none of the roughly 20 crew members were harmed. It comes after a series of drone and rocket attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The group, which controls much of Yemen, has carried out more than 100 drone and missile attacks on 10 vessels, according to US officials. It claims to be targeting Israel over the war in Gaza. Many large global shipping groups have suspended operations in the Red Sea due to the increased risk of attacks. But it is not yet clear who was behind the strike near India on Saturday. The incident took place 200 nautical miles (370km) south-west of the city of Veraval, according the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1632/i...da35/image/816It caused structural damage to the tanker - identified in Indian media as the crude oil-carrying MV Chem Pluto - and water was taken onboard. Ambrey said the event, which is the first of its kind so far away from the Red Sea, fell within an area the firm considered a "heightened threat area" for Iranian drones. The Indian navy sent an aircraft and warships to offer assistance. Earlier on Saturday, the US accused Iran of being "deeply involved" in planning operations against commercial vessels in the Red Sea. National security spokesperson Adrienne Watson said it was "consistent with Iran's long-term material support and encouragement of the Houthis' destabilising actions in the region".Later, an Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander warned it would force the closure of waterways other than the Red Sea if "America and its allies continue committing crimes" in Gaza. Brig Gen Mohammad Reza Naqdi said these could include the Mediterranean Sea and Strait of Gibraltar - but offered no details of how this would happen. |
Ok then, call their bluff. Put the commercial shipping into a convoy and escort them through the blockade. I think the West needs to grow a pair and say enough is enough. That also goes for providing arms to Ukraine. Iran and Russia are not going to stop by the imposition of sanctions and diplomatic nicety.
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Convoys are hugely asset intensive, especially given the amount of traffic that passes through the Red Sea. This is simply not doable with the current assets assigned to Op Prosperity Garden. The force would have to be 5 times bigger to escort every merchant ship in a convoy system. I still think that the Middle Eastern countries need to take ownership of this. Convoys just allow Iran and the Houthi’s to keep blaming the US.
I think it is time to pull back, recommend shipping companies avoid the area and let the locals sort this. Ironically the country hardest hit is Yemen as virtually all aid being shipped to the country has stopped. |
Iran calls for Muslim nations to block shipping
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...david-cameron/
Malign Iran is threat to the world, warns Cameron Foreign Secretary vows to take tough line on Tehran’s meddling in the Middle East Britain will not tolerate the escalation of Iran’s “malign” activities in the Middle East or on UK soil, Lord Cameron has warned. In his first newspaper interview since returning to government, the Foreign Secretary described Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah as “proxies” for Iran who were contributing to an “extremely high” level of “danger and insecurity” around the world. In a significant toughening of the UK’s approach, the former prime minister told The Telegraph that Iran must be sent “an incredibly clear message that this escalation will not be tolerated”. He pledged that Britain would work with allies to “develop a really strong set of deterrent measures” against Tehran. On Friday night, the US pointed to intelligence showing that Iran was “deeply involved” in planning Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The attacks are already causing major disruption to supply chains across Europe. Lord Cameron also cited “more evidence” of the “unacceptable threat the Iranian regime poses to the lives of UK-based journalists” after it emerged that Iranian spies had offered a people smuggler £150,000 to assassinate two news presenters at a London-based Persian language news channel. The Telegraph can reveal that the Foreign Secretary summoned Iran’s most senior diplomat in the UK to the Foreign Office on Friday over the revelation “to make clear that these threats will not be tolerated”. Since the start of last year, there have been more than 15 credible threats or plots by the Iranian regime to kill British or UK-based individuals, according to government officials….. |
You have to admire their ambition. From the DT
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Gibraltar and the Mediterranean Sea unless Israel stops bombing Gaza, as the US warned Tehran was “deeply involved” in attacks on shipping. “They shall soon await the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, [the Strait of] Gibraltar and other waterways,” Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior member of the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said today. The general did not explain how Iran, which does not border the Mediterranean, intended to make good on its threat. |
Pentagon says drone which attacked chemical tanker off India earlier today was launched from Iran — WSJ
Most likely source is Chabahar airbase which is 500nm from where the tanker MV Chem Pluto was attacked. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....fce8ea66ae.png |
The latest @Maersk advisory announced the potential resumption of trade through the Red Sea now that @USNavy has escorted through 3 US-flagged @MaerskLineLtd ships
In the Med, several 8k+TEUs are heading for Suez: Maersk Detroit 🇺🇸, Hidalgo, Stralsund, Londrina, Tukang, Genoa, Mary Maersk, Gjertrud Maersk, Maren Maersk & Ebba Maersk. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0ac1100b00.png |
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