WSJ: https://archive.is/20260401014531/ht...ormuz-9836ecbb

Can you post a link to that article please ?

Once in a language classroom in London an Iranian student pointed to the Gulf on a wall map, saying 'Persian Gulf', whereupon an Iraqi student leapt up to say it was the 'Arabian' Gulf, initiating an argument that very nearly developed into a fistfight.

The mouth of the Strait is an international waterway overseen 50/50 between Iran and Oman, surely, or 50% by Iran to the east and 50% split between seven Arab countries to the west.

It was in Japanese, from an analysis on a Korean news site called Kangnam. I tried to find the original after reading it, but I do not think there is an English version.
Shall I look for the link?
Edit. Have tried. Giving up for now... the article quoted analysis by Michael Kofman (Carnegie) and Retired Air Marshal Martin Sampson.

I found this article which has one of those authors which mentions FPV drones using optical fibre (for 2-way communication) but it doesn't mention how long the fibre is. I would doubt very much that an FPV drone could carry 30-40km of fibre onboard
to cross the Strait of Hormuz, it would be too heavy (even a single strand of single-mode fibre). If it were quite a large drone
capable of carrying a hefty payload, it would be possible

https://san.com/cc/iran-applies-less...ockpiles-thin/

A lot of people (including the Iranians) have noted that POTUS is now in the habit of saying that things are going well just before US markets open on Mondays. He starts talking tough around Wednesday night and then sends in the military just after US markets close on Friday.

Long weekend coming up - expect action Thursday night US time?

Interesting, thank you.
Wiki mentions prototypes up to 50 km, although 5-20 km is the norm, apparently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiber_optic_drone

Apparently the USS Bush has left the US east coast to replace the USS Ford in the eastern Mediterranean.

Presumably that means the USN expects action to continue for at least the length of the transit time for USS Bush (2-3 weeks)? Or simply a contingency option?

https://www.gl-fibercable.com/newsde...solutions.html

Why Choose GL-FIBER’s Fiber Optic FPV Systems?

1. Ultra-Thin, High-Strength Fiber Cores

Diameter Options: 0.25mm / 0.27mm / 0.35mm (G.657.A2 bend-insensitive fiber)
Tensile Strength: 500N+ (aramid-reinforced for anti-snagging)
Bend Radius: 7.5mm static, 15mm dynamic (IEC 60794-2-20 compliant)

2. Fully Customizable Configurations

Lengths: 25.2km, 50.4km, 60.0km/spool (extendable to 100km)
Color Coding: TIA/EIA-598-A standardized or custom-branded jackets
Connectors: SC/APC, LC/UPC, or pre-terminated MPO/MTP options

3. Battle-Proven Performance

0% Signal Loss: EMI-immune transmission near 5G towers/EWAR zones
Latency: <28ms for real-time 1080P@60fps videoTemperature Range: -40°C to +85°C (IP67 waterproofing)

I remember being briefed on a fibre optic missile, the FOG-M (Google it, or no doubt someone will provide a link) in the late 1980s....it had a range of around 50km then.

Raytheon MGM-157 EFOGM and it doesn't look very big.

That was over 35 years ago.

The Brazilian Avibras FOG-MPM weighs 34kg and has a range of 60km.

Interesting info, but the list doesn't mention weight. That will be the critical thing. No point having a 60km spool if it's to heavy for the drone to fly.

Exactly, which is why I said it would need to be a large drone. Now, back to our regular programming :)

It's not a long weekend in US - Easter is not a Federal Holiday.

The SE Turboprop is an Air Tractor 802U.

With a sextet of those missile pods, wouldn't one make a good drone hunter for Dubai. Cheap to operate, they could maintain a CAP 50 nm off the coast and plink away at any low speed shaheads heading east.

On another topic, my next door neighbour is Iranian, ex Iran AF in fact, fled Iran when the Shah fell. he's now well north of 80 years old, a thorough gentleman. His advice, if anyone thinks this is going to be over in 2 weeks, you have a big reality check coming. The IRGC is a mix of religeous zealots, and Mafia organised crime. If any semblance of the IRGC is left intact, the WILL regroup and seek revenge....on the world. Their train set has been taken away and they are pissed.....really pissed. The job must be completed in full, no matter the cost in money, materials, or lives, anything less and we will just repeat this whole fiasco in 10 years.

There could be:
1. UAE and SA will start war against Iran- most probavly islands in SoH and Iran' littoral area
2. Usa wil provide air cover and logistics of such campaign.Without direct involment of ground troops ecxept protection of vital assets.
3. Some poor countries will send their troops, in exchange for money or oil to join coalition..
4. EU will vote for strong resolutuon saying that it is unacceptable to further ruin human tights, rule of Law and democrcy in region..

in short, 2:0 for Vatican.

That fiber specs 10kg/25km. For a shaheed size drone no problem to carry 20kg=50km of spool. Only the rear prop will create a problem, but that can be solved. Design of a 50km drone with fibre optic FPV guidance for over water use is not difficult. Very difficult to spot if it flys low altitude over water, does not have electronic emissions and insensitive to interference. Alternative you make an submerged quiet under water version with electric propulsion. Home in on acoustic noise pattern from any ships propulsion system. That are today cheap systems you can not protect against even with very expensive electronic warfare equipment. That is a very asymmetric threat where the narrow SoH gives Iran a big advantage. You have to complete control 1350nm coast + max. drone and rocket range inland. You will need to control 90 million people and the 6th of the USA size landscape into every corner.
That was known 4 weeks ago, so I wonder what the plan was.

Plan? What's a plan?

Although it is not a federal holiday, US markets are closed on Good Friday.

https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars

<5kg for 60km here https://www.holightoptic.com/fiber-o...r-reel-1-60km/

Not just weight though, tether mass also a consideration for performance.

Or you can leave the spool at the launcher, and spin it to reduce the pulling strain on the drone.

Was thinking about this - why not put the spool on the launcher, not the drone - but you'd have friction effects from dragging the cable that would pretty soon be unsustainable

There is a saying that goes "no plan survives first contact with the enemy".

Running around the perimeter at Wittering years back, I interrupted my fitness regime to marvel at an earlier version of these crop spraying - It was wonderful to behold. However, Drones are being made faster to counter the counter drones, I'm sure there will be an acronym along shortly to fulfil that description, in the interim, investment in the AT as anti drone is addressing a moving target, ( no pun intended) When does a drone become a missile...

Ukraine war facts on drones.

Unjammable Drones Leave Wires, Force Ukrainians to Move With Caution - Business Insider

So yes, 50K fibre optic drones are already here

Meanwhile, whilst Trump continues to insult the UK armed forces and PM and threaten to withdraw from NATO....

Video​​​​​​​

That looks like the "We broke it, you deal with it" concept, which is at odds with Secretary of State Colin Powell's "you break it you own it" concept.

The president is giving a Prime Time address on April Foll's night.
I wonder if anyone in his inner circle is aware of that juxtaposition. :p

The USS Bush heading across the pond and replacing the Ford may or may not be involved in any Persian Gulf ops. May be to have a CV in either Eastern Med or I.O. for the standard rotations...

Video

But of course.
If you read the book that the film Pappillon was based upon, you might get an answer that you didn't expect! :eek:

Still taking a look at "we targeted a group of 200 people" statement by Iran, not seeing any details on the CENTCOM site...

CENTCOM rebuttal:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....95439b6158.png

In 1991 I shared a student house and first year Engineering classes with an Iranian about my own age (late 20s) not long out of the Iran-Iraq war. One of the Applied Science students we shared maths classes with was an 18yo Iraqi-Australian lad. Far from hostility, they just seemed curious about each other and got along cordially.

Looks like EA37B Compass Call on its way into theatre:

https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/3...denhall/#allow

0.27mm diameter gives 0.057 sqmm cross section.
0.057 mm^2 x 1km = 0.057 mm * mm * km = 0.057 mm * m * m = 0.057 litres (per km of fibre).
Glass has a relative density of about 2.2, giving 125 grams per kilometre.
8km per kg; 40km = 5kg, 60kg = 7.5kg.

You need an outer coating of some kind for the fiber, because immersed in water you still need a steep dielectric constant change from the fiber to the outside to keep the optic signal intact.. Air will do but water is most likely too close to glass. However the fiber seem to come with a coating since it says IP67. The weight of the spool is given in the data sheet with 10kg/25km. So you wind up with 20kg+ weight, which is not much for a shaheed size drone and you loose that weight if you spool it from the drone.

Is there a reason why the USA/Allies are not able to neutralise the Iran drone threats in the SoH area, or is that going to be the task for the Warthogs?

It is very simple. The USA can't, same as everybody else can't On 1350nm shoreline any drone, 155mm tube, mine, naval drone, rocket, you name it, can sink a tanker or any other ship on short notice. It is military impossible to protect shipping with a decent reliability. If you hit 1 out of 10 tankers, nobody will set sail, nor insure those vessels. Absent from the ecological nightmare. LNG tankers add huge fireworks. Anyone with a shoreline there can deny the use of the SoH. 20% of the worldwide energy market and all GCC biz is at a standstill.

Not sure I would want to be on the maiden voyage of the CVN 47, USS Kaptin Kaos (ships motto, "We break it, you fix it...")when it does it's first visit outside of CONUS... Iran plays a long game, Kaos can't keep it together to the end of his sentence.

NATO's problems like the UN are enshrined in their charter, and what has passed as convention since inception. It is a similar issue that arises in the US with the constitution, that in all cases there was an assumption that rational adults would be involved in making decisions, and that is no longer the case, and arguably since the establishment of the UNSC, never was the case. NATO has a cancer in its midst before Kaos returned to the picture, but at least there is some clarity (Klarity?) on the issue of the future of North Atlantic defence alliances. We are watching a realignment of alliances in real time, one flurry of tweets at a time. It be interesting times.

This is a military aviation centric matter. The US makes extraordinary systems, the F-22 is cool, the B21A is a good extension of the B2... But the battle space has altered, and while the old guard threats exist, the emerging threats are far more problematic. Used to be the good old days that a strike package to go 300nm from Naked Phannie to downtown would take 60 aircraft, multiples of that number of crew, and deposit holes in the ground over a wide spread area.... today, the same capability is achieved with a measure of accuracy over 3 times the distance, by some bunch of guys sitting in caves and ditches... at a low low cost all up of less than the one aircraft out of the strike package that would usually be lost by accident, not by E.A., counter drone is now a serious need, drones being available on TEMU or ALIBABA.

WRT threats to the Lower 48, It was a couple of years back that the Ukranians displayed the problem of a drive by fruiting by dropping pineapples onto Vlad's world class airforce, on their home base. it takes little further ingenuity, and only some residual resentment to go and do the same number from some tramp steamer running in international waters, with a few dozen 40' containers on the upper deck. The Ukrainians showed that the delivery vehicle didn't even need to be part of the nefarious plot, pretty sure the driver of the Kerch bridge truck still has a look of surprise on his face... as do the guys who suddenly saw a flock of FPVs emerging from the top of their cargo. A bit of politeness with neighbours might be a sound strategy.

As to Iran being a mortal enemy of any specific country, that isn't quite what their instruction manual says, it is worth a read. It does get twisted, as does that for the rest of the religions around the world, seems we are all as bad as each other in that regard, call it observer bias. 1953 set off the Iranians towards 1979, and that gets us to where they are now. Seems we are not fast learners on either side.

Benny might consider that he still winning with his manipulation of a special needs subject, I suspect that is not the case, being a 1-man wrecking ball does not equate to long term security, it assures that there will be greater resentment than there was before, and threats increase.

Can't wait to hear the pearls of wisdom that usher forth at 9PM EST today from the WH...

Exactly - A minimum viable threat. Can you launch 5 a week, one a week?
Job done.

Maybe the question would be push a destroyer through with protection and see what happens, much like the then German regime ran two Battle Cruisers and escorts in the Channel Dash, who transited the English Channel semi successfully.

Cheers
Mr Mac

Salute!

EDLB is correct. It's why I said both sides of the strait must be friendly and in control of the ground that is within fairly short range for cheap drones or decent artillery.

But the many claimed IRAN was friendly, heh heh.

I would add that those controlling the ground have a vested interest in the free flow thru the Strait, and currently those on the north will become martyrs and starve
willingly.

Gums repeats...