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If we can't open the Strait what happens when the oil runs out? What's plan B?
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12054315)
If we can't open the Strait what happens when the oil runs out? What's plan B?
Or Russia. |
Further encouragement for countries to wean themselves off Middle Eastern oil and gas.
Obviously nobody learned much from the spike in oil prices (around 300%) in 1973/74 as a result of the Arab/Israeli War....only 50 years to prepare, obviously not enough time for Western governments. If only we had a secure source of oil and gas more local to ourselves, eh Mr Miliband.... |
If we can't open the Strait what happens when the oil runs out? What's plan B? https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ef3cfa82cb.png https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....caa0c7e743.png https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5d860a0702.png |
Originally Posted by Biggus
(Post 12054327)
Further encouragement for countries to wean themselves off Middle Eastern oil and gas.
Obviously nobody learned much from the spike in oil prices (around 300%) in 1973/74 as a result of the Arab/Israeli War....only 50 years to prepare, obviously not enough time for Western governments. If only we had a secure source of oil and gas more local to ourselves, eh Mr Miliband.... On the other hand, we can install a lot of wind and solar quite quickly, get the new transmission lines built, accelerate the move to heat pumps, push the EV transition harder, get homes properly insulated. .... In fact there are 100s of things that can be done - we have many different directions that we can attack the problem from simultaneously and all with an end result that we will not need oil in significant amounts ever again. While we're doing all of this we're spending money in the UK, investing in the UK, developing exportable technology here. In fact you could almost paint it as a kind of industrial revolution Mk2 except that this time we didn't start it. |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12054315)
If we can't open the Strait what happens when the oil runs out? What's plan B?
Most recently Iran has offered to sell oil to China in Yuan. Perhaps also to other nations. This is a way of encouraging a move away from the petrodollar which, in turn, is a threat to the US economy which relies on the dollar being the World's reserve currency. There are tutorials on how the petrodollar works on YouTube should you wish. So, Iran seems to allow oil and gas exports through the SoH if payment is not made in petrodollars. https://www.chosun.com/english/world...NUI3C5SX3XFR4/ Notwithstanding this, human ingenuity and the wish to make a buck or two are going to make other sources of petrochemical products available. The USA and Russia are likely to be net winners here The current oil market looks something like this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christo...ng-out-of-oil/ A drop in the proverbial barrel will also be the reopening of the iraq Kurdistan pipeline. The KSA East West pipeline with a capacity of around 7 bbl/day will relieve some pressure however, the Houthis have been very quiet of late and may well be primed to interdict supplies heading East. |
Reference the Fairford missions now routing through the Strait of Gibraltar - looks like it because the French have closed their airspace to bombing missions.
It's starting to look like this French Air Force visit to RAF Fairford, coinciding with a US C-40 visit, may have been senior French and CENTCOM officials meeting regarding US bombers flying over France... The bombers since have been flying via Gibraltar... perhaps France said no more?! https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3461e1ca19.png It’s very likely, 02-0042 went to MacDill just days prior, likely to pick up Adm. Cooper. Also worth noting, SecAF & CSAF normally don’t use the C-40s operated by the 89th Airlift Wing. |
Like buying a cheap ticket for the Titanic after it has already hit the iceberg
A French General spells it out
A French general has said joining President Donald Trump’s war is like buying a discounted ticket for the Titanic after it had already hit the iceberg. Retired three-star general and former commander of the French Foreign Legion, Michel Yakovleff, appeared on LCI, where he reeled off all the reasons not to follow Trump into battle. The president has endured a chastening start to the week after ally after ally—including the U.K., France, Japan, Germany, South Korea, and even China—rejected the idea of offering military support for his war with Iran. “You can’t have an American operation where they’re bombing whatever they can, and then below that, the Europeans doing something else,” Yakovleff said. “No, no, no, it has to be one sole operation, under a NATO flag. I don’t think he’s understood that.” He then went further, rejecting the idea that European ships would enforce his blockade while U.S. forces nearby waged a broader war all around them. Instead, he said the U.S. needed to make it crystal clear what it wanted from the conflict. “The Americans have to put this in writing. Not tweets, not things that change every two minutes,” he said. Yakovleff then claimed that sending ships to help Trump went beyond simply putting those vessels at risk. Instead, he said it opened the door to becoming involved in the conflict’s politics. “It’s not a question of military means, the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “It’s that he wants to share the political risk... not the military risk.” His words echoed those of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who said, “What does Trump expect from a handful of European frigates that the powerful U.S. Navy cannot do?” the BBC reports. “This is not our war. We have not started it.” Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for oil to the rest of the world. Around one-fifth of the world’s supply flows through it in peacetime, but since Trump’s attack on February 28, Iran has warned that ships’ safety cannot be guaranteed. Tankers have come under fire, leading to a supply chain backlog and at least 17 vessels being hit. Meanwhile, gas prices are soaring. Yakovleff, who served in NATO roles for seven years, has previously warned that Trump’s attacks on the alliance could destroy it. He would let us down whenever it suited him,” he continued on LCI, before stating, “On the Titanic, it appears the captain wanted to sell tickets off cheaply for the dinner-dance after hitting the iceberg. It’s not the moment to be buying a cut-price ticket for the Titanic.” “And the last argument is American: you don’t reinforce failure. I learnt that at the U.S. Army War College. You don’t reinforce failure, you move on, you find something else.” France’s President Emmanuel Macron had already poured cold water on the idea of getting involved in the fighting directly. Instead, he said he would look into organizing a fleet of escorts to help ships navigate the strait, but only after the “hottest phase” of the fighting was over, according to the BBC. U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer struck a similar tone, saying in a news conference on Monday that he was looking at a “viable plan” but was “not at the point of decisions yet.” Meanwhile, the European Union’s foreign policy boss, Kaja Kallas, told Reuters that “Nobody is ready to put their people in harm’s way in the Strait of Hormuz.” |
Australian MOD:
https://www.defence.gov.au/news-even...inhad-air-base Statement on strikes on Al Minhad Air Base 18 MARCH 2026 On the morning of 18 March 2026 (AEDT), an Iranian strike impacted an area at the Al Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, where the Australian Defence Force (ADF) has a long‑standing presence. No ADF personnel were injured in the incident, and all ADF personnel deployed to the Middle East are safe and accounted for. The strike resulted in minor damage to an accommodation block and medical facility in the Australian section of the base. Defence’s focus is on ensuring the safety and security of our people, and we will continue to revise force protection measures as the situation in the Middle East evolves. |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12054315)
If we can't open the Strait what happens when the oil runs out? What's plan B?
The one that has everyone bricking it is when the available storage for the wells in the area is full. At that point, wells start to have to be shut, which has serious longer term implications as to being able to open them back up and the timescale for doing so. That is the number one driver for opening the Straits. It beggars belief that CENTCOM have not had a list of targets (eg mine storage depots, harbours, IRGC coastal bases) marked "Mallet these asap to reduce risk to tanker traffic". If they don't the J2 cell needs an interview without coffee. |
A US official has confirmed the attack was made using GBU-72 Advanced 5K Penetrators.
Video An Iranian underground missile storage facility was successfully targeted & destroyed using bunker buster bombs near the Strait of Hormuz. Over 200 Khorramshahr ballistic missiles were stored there and now became dust. Hours ago, U.S. forces successfully employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles in these sites posed a risk to international shipping in the strait. |
What's wrong with just going the other way round Africa ? More expensive obviously and much longer in distance and time but AFAIK that was always the way with tankers that couldn't get through Suez
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Hmmm, because the Gulf is a cul de sac and you have to go through the Strait of Hormuz because you can go either way?
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Originally Posted by Dave Gittins
(Post 12054375)
What's wrong with just going the other way round Africa ? More expensive obviously and much longer in distance and time but AFAIK that was always the way with tankers that couldn't get through Suez
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Originally Posted by Dave Gittins
(Post 12054375)
What's wrong with just going the other way round Africa ? More expensive obviously and much longer in distance and time but AFAIK that was always the way with tankers that couldn't get through Suez
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Iran is now hitting the oil and gas production - not export - sites in the Gulf states. Now Israelis doing the same in Iran.
I have commented previously on the plants in Asia producing basic production elements such as ethylene, fertiliser etc shutting down declaring "force Majeure"*, expect that to multiple rapidly. Israel struck Iranian natural gas infrastructure at the South Pars natural gas field, the largest in the world. The largest natural gas processing facility in Iran was reportedly hit, along with additional gas infrastructure in Asaluyeh. Iranian state media said on Wednesday that parts of the South Pars gas field and facilities in Asaluyeh were hit in a US-Israeli attack. “A part of the South Pars and Asaluyeh oil and gas facilities was targeted by the Zionist-American enemy,” Mizan news agency reported. BREAKING: They just hit the factory. Israeli strikes set fire to Phase 14 processing facilities at South Pars today. Iran’s oil ministry and Tasnim confirmed the blaze. Partial production suspension. An estimated 12 million cubic metres per day of gas output affected. South Pars is the largest gas field on Earth. It produces 70 to 80 percent of Iran’s total gas output. That gas is not just fuel. It is the hydrogen feedstock for the Haber-Bosch process that synthesises ammonia, which becomes urea, which becomes the nitrogen that half the planet’s agriculture depends on. South Pars gas feeds Iranian fertiliser production at its molecular root. The Hormuz permissioned chokepoint was already blocking the shipping route. Now the strikes are hitting the production source. The war is attacking the nitrogen supply chain at both ends simultaneously. This is the escalation that collapses every remaining optimistic scenario. The hopeful case for the global food system was always: the strait reopens, fertiliser flows resume, planting windows are partially salvaged. South Pars burning removes even that. If the strait reopened tomorrow morning and every provincial command stood down and every insurer reinstated cover by afternoon, the gas field that feeds the feedstock that feeds the ammonia that feeds the urea is on fire. The molecule cannot ship because the strait is blocked. The molecule cannot be produced because the factory is burning. Two chokepoints on the same supply chain. Both compromised on the same day of the same war. South Pars shares its geological reservoir with Qatar’s North Dome field. Qatar’s output is steady. Qatar’s fertiliser production is unaffected. But Qatar’s exports also transit through Hormuz. Qatar’s urea also requires passage through the permissioned chokepoint that the Mosaic Doctrine’s 31 provincial commands control via sealed packets and VHF radio. The world’s two largest producers of the gas that becomes the nitrogen that grows the food are now compromised at different points on the same chain: Iran at the source, Qatar at the route...... |
And another one bites the dust.
Israel says it killed Esmaeil Khatib, Iran’s Minister of Intelligence, in an overnight airstrike. |
Originally Posted by flyingorthopod
(Post 12054102)
It is a potential environmental disaster. Perhaps the 636,000,000 Swallows could be encouraged to deliver coconuts filled with explosives or an incendiary onto the Iranian military positions. No contaminated coconuts and a natural loitering drone, that can be rearmed and re-dispatched. |
Things are taking a darker turn. Israeli airstrikes have hit Iran’s massive South Pars gas field, along with key infrastructure, including the Asaluyeh petrochemical complex. In response, Tehran has issued an urgent warning, calling for the evacuation of petrochemical sites across KSA, Qatar, and the UAE. |
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Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin
(Post 12054365)
It beggars belief that CENTCOM have not had a list of targets (eg mine storage depots, harbours, IRGC coastal bases) marked "Mallet these asap to reduce risk to tanker traffic". If they don't the J2 cell needs an interview without coffee.
About the various production facilities blowing up: Iran (and others) are taking a page from the Ukraine and Russian "war against your infrastructure" approach of the last few years. Lessons Learned, as they say. Side note: as with the first year of the war in Ukraine, the looming shortage of fertilizer (noted in a few of the posts up thread) will be fell all around the globe and impact global food supplies. That's a strategic concern. Iran's Position? "If I'm gonna bleed, you're gonna bleed." |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12054400)
And another one bites the dust.
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....307f2ebd21.png |
Response to SWBKCB
Israel is trying out the idea that offing the leadership of a government is how to win a war. (The US seems to be taking a similar approach). Interestingly, they have tried this with Hamas, and with Hezbollah, the latter of whom are not even close to giving up. Iran has greater strategic depth than Hezbollah... I am pretty sure that Sun Tzu would approve, in terms of military theory. However, when theory meets practice, little details like "being prepared for a succession problem" crop up and things aren't as 'clean' as the theoretical model would suggest. Heads of state the world over may start sleeping less easily at night, what with the proliferation of drones and their ease of manufacture. Welcome to the 21st century. There are no front lines in this kind of warfare ... Sun Tzu also said: An evil man will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes. That little bumper sticker length phrase seems to apply to a number of nations |
That might work in some cases, but doesn't seem to be having an impact here.
It could be argued that the Iranian nation is now governed by less experienced, less able leaders making it harder reach a solution. |
And nowhere in this tragedy is much attention being paid to what wiping out Iran's Petrochemical infrastructure will do to a nation of 93M or the coincidence that Trump has allowed increased exploitation of US Oli resources ( oh Venezuala too) Are there any estimates at all about Iranian Civilian as well as military casualties
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Originally Posted by Dave Gittins
(Post 12054375)
What's wrong with just going the other way round Africa ? More expensive obviously and much longer in distance and time but AFAIK that was always the way with tankers that couldn't get through Suez
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
(Post 12054404)
The planners are not thinking this through, my concern would be what happens to the oil contaminated coconuts at the end of this?
It is a potential environmental disaster. Perhaps the 636,000,000 Swallows could be encouraged to deliver coconuts filled with explosives or an incendiary onto the Iranian military positions. No contaminated coconuts and a natural loitering drone, that can be rearmed and re-dispatched. |
Why not a bucket chain brigade, that would be quickly installed...
Volunteers, step forward, You can be out in the fresh air all day, there is some exercise, and all those fumes will inspire Your brain. |
Salute!
Maybe start another pipeline such as exists and now helping things immensely: Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline - Wikipedia Gums sends... |
Originally Posted by gums
(Post 12054468)
Salute!
Maybe start another pipeline such as exists and now helping things immensely: Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline - Wikipedia Gums sends... |
What’s going on with shipping.
Seems some ships are hugging the Iranian coast. |
Originally Posted by albatross
(Post 12054488)
What’s going on with shipping.
Seems some ships are hugging the Iranian coast. https://youtu.be/Eqr3s6uTays?si=rQwRntM-vzNyuGDj |
I remain bewildered.
1. What part of the current entertainment was not able to be expected before the clowns in the big top elected to start playing with zippo's while doused in gasoline? 2. Where was the pushback from the experts and planners and rocket scientists inside the pentagram thingy that have the remit to push back against utter stupidity? 3. Politically, where was the pushback on the bilateral activity of the new Israel-US hegemony alliance to go around capping parties that are radicalised against Israel, and the US? 4. The parties that were asked to join in the party after the party had started going into a bit of a wild party, were not informed of the intended festivities, but are asked to do the clean-up on aisle 13, women's amenities, after the cage has been rattled; was that not foreseen as being an offer too good to not refuse? When the corporal decided to move his painting easel 2000 miles east with Opn Barbie on 22 June 1941, he did invite similar minded sociopaths to the party, but then after VP got his butt handed to himself in a sling at S'grad, only to turn up as a witness at Nuremberg some years later, did any of the participants then wonder how history might record their actions? Right now, our lords and kings have a pretty simple set of choices: Option A: The "oops, my bad" path. Apologise for the damages and spoilage, and leave by the front door. Option B: "All In". They get kinetic and start getting boots on the ground as the best of a really bad set of choices, or they start vitrifying Iran. Those are disasters in both cases, but they are at least all in. I would think that both would need to bring fodder for the horses for the 4 riders that will turn up in that case. Option C: what they will actually do. I cannot imagine the existing tenants of the WH or the Knesset taking Option A, they are tear the tent down sort of guys, bonespurs be damned. Option B is a really bad option, that makes Option A look attractive, but, if you are living in a parallel universe of alternative facts, then this is not beyond the realm of possibilities, it is just, what's the word... ah, yes, "Bad". The rest of the world needs to be at a distance from the fallout, rhetorical and actual, of this party. Joining in this modern day Operation Barbarossa seems to be contraindicated due to the consequences of the principal architects of the events. Sending in warships into the gulf is asinine. They are targets, heck, you can go to Alibaba and buy for a few grand a system COTS and fill with some bang and luft it or float it towards the deer in the headlights that the warships and VLCCs etc represent. The existing oil/gas infrastructure of Iran has about the same level of likelihood of surviving this as most of the gulf states and the KSA, which is, not very high. That means this is a risk to... fertiliser not just the cost of your cars fuel tank, and that means the consequences will be felt disproportionately by the most at risk who do not have the funds to compete for a commodity as it becomes scarce. Historically, removing food from the table of the dispossessed and unfortunate has not ended well, it achieves radicalisation, and that increases the threats that exist that are defended by upright citizens such as Kristy "puppy love" Noem, and that, should give some pause if it is considered that the consequences of the 2:00 AM tweet centric decision making does not come back to add some spice into all of our lives. Pipe lines across the desert are also called targets. At least popcorn sales are up. Gotta say, it is fascinating to see the level of competency play out on the world stage, it is about on par with Olaf the hairy ordering his helmets with the horns on the inside. PS... pretty patterns of tracks of BONES and BUFFs going across France, and then, surprise, not going across France, or Spain or Europe, and going around the turf and getting a scenic of the rock of Gib on the fly by. Surprise. Diego is about the first real base that exists, and that is not without risk. Tel Aviv is probably going to be suitable to basing DOWaaaah assets, not healthy, but at least they are on the "A-Team".... If this doesn't end up with a war crimes commission at the end, we will have been remiss in trying to maintain some semblance of civility, and I guess there would be a bit of a complaint on double standards from those that became taller following Nuremberg or achieved free board and lodging from The Hague, like Slob Milo. Hat, coat, door... |
fdr: In order to have a Nuremberg, you have to be the winning side in a war. Not disagreeing with your take on the level of un-thinking that is on display.
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12054523)
fdr: In order to have a Nuremberg, you have to be the winning side in a war. Not disagreeing with your take on the level of un-thinking that is on display.
what does winning look like? Not much of what is happening looks like a cogent plan crafted by experts in sober reflection of consequences. It has all the hall marks of Boris Yeltsin holding a rave party in a vodka production facility. Hoping they Iran runs out of missiles before Israel runs out of buildings seems like a poor plan. Same for VLCC, warships vs drones, missiles, 120, 155 rounds etc. goats with flippers and aqualung and limpet mines. Iran has a reasonable position to be irritated with their government being plinked off in an undeclared “expedition”, pretty sure our side would feel that way too. |
So where is the exit here?
Iran cannot and will not surrender as long as the present theocracy is in power. The present governments whole raison d´être is resisting the US and Israel, they have spent substantial money, ressources and efforts for this instead of for improving their own country. Irans history is full of foreign powers trying to meddle with it and there is a certain dislike for a further attempt to be expected. One thing they are not: stupid. They know their hand and are playing it, hitting the attackers where it pains them (Chrushchevs word on Berlin being situated somewhere below the equator on the Wests anatomy and receptive to a good squeeze come to mind) and while their internal organisation is still intact, they have no reason to fold. A system that had 45 years to stabilise itself and plan for this very moment will not fall after being decapitated. And plan they did, the autonomy of the individual Pasdaran units that are free to attack at will without high command ordering them is but one example for structural resilience. Hydra has many heads. The US and Israel find it hard to stop their attacks as well. Just tucking ones tail in without a victory is not what Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu are likely to do, even if no real, consistent reason for the war or what would constitute a victory in their eyes has been communicated. This would smack of failure, which both of those alpha males can ill afford or stomach. Mr Trump has elections coming up, the polls are probably not to his liking, and to have wagered and lost a war after having been elected on "America first", "No more foreign wars" and so on is unlikely to get him more votes, gerrymandering or not. Also, Mr Netanyahu will have elections sometime, and judging from his scraping the barrel for a coalition after the last one probably will not like to have a failure attached to his name. Painted into a corner they all are. I am afraid that this will go on for a long time. |
This war has expanded in scope, in part because, as General Mattis used to remind people: the enemy gets a vote regarding how long he wants to fight.
The initial phase was (both sides) primarily targeting military assets and bases. It's gone well beyond that. From Reuters
Originally Posted by Reuters
DUBAI, March 18 (Reuters) - Iranian gas facilities in the Gulf came under attack on Wednesday, state media reported, prompting Tehran to say it would target a range of energy installations across Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar "in the coming hours". Oil prices jumped on the news, with Brent crude futures gaining more than 6% to a session high just shy of $110 per barrel.
The attacks on Iran's energy industry in South Pars and Asaluyeh have raised concerns that Iran could also target infrastructure of global energy majors across the Gulf, and alternative regional export routes such as Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, prolonging a conflict that has already effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. The Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson said Wednesday's attack was a "dangerous and irresponsible" escalation that put global energy security at risk, and the UAE stressed the need to avoid targeting vital facilities. Qatar called it an Israeli attack without mentioning any U.S. role.Qatar has fully shut its liquefied natural gas production because of the war, and any damage to facilities could extend the outage beyond May, threatening to keep a fifth of global LNG supply offline. Tasnim news agency said Wednesday's attacks targeted petrochemical facilities in South Pars and added the extent of the damage was not yet clear. Iranian gas flows to Iraq were halted as Iran diverted its gas domestically, a senior Iraqi official told Reuters. Tehran supplies between a third and 40% of Iraq's gas and power needs. The attacks on South Pars make it even more likely the war will continue into May, said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft. "The biggest concern will be the potential for attacks against Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline or export facilities on the Red Sea which alongside Fujairah offer the only significant alternative to the Strait of Hormuz," Soltvedt added. Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued evacuation orders for Saudi Arabia's Samref Refinery and Jubail Petrochemical Complex, the UAE's Al Hosn Gas Field, and Qatar's Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex, Mesaieed Holding Company and Ras Laffan Refinery, saying they would be targeted by strikes, Iranian state media reported. The Ras Laffan LNG installations were being evacuated, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The notification to evacuate specific sites marks a clear escalation in rhetoric around energy infrastructure, at a time when the global LNG market is already tight because of disruptions, said Tom Purdie, lead LNG analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects. Iran's offshore South Pars gas field makes up around a third of the world's largest reservoir of natural gas. Iran shares the reservoir with major exporter Qatar. Most gas Tehran produces from South Pars is for domestic use. Iran's gas production totalled 276 billion cubic meters in 2024, with 94% consumed in Iran, according to data by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum. |
Originally Posted by gums
(Post 12054468)
Salute!
Maybe start another pipeline such as exists and now helping things immensely: Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline - Wikipedia Gums sends... |
There are reports that bunker busters have been dropped on missile storage sites.
Possibilities:
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Video:
BREAKING: A fire has erupted at Qatar's Ras Laffan refinery following an Iranian attack, according to Qatar's Interior Ministry. Ras Laffan is home to the world's largest LNG facility. |
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