As someone who works in defence at a high level you should be privy to strategies in place should Russia start turning the screw the wrong way. The West is very ready and more than capable of applying military pressure upon Russia on a level that would far exceed its ability to defend efficiently. Now, if your inference to stepping 'outside the lines' is nuclear then that risk has been handled impeccably so far, and although nobody wants it Russia would be hit with a retaliation beyond modern comprehension should they be so stupid. To summarise, nothing today has changed other than Ukraine being able to defend and recapture its territories more aggressively.

Edit due to my nosey GSD hitting the submit button with his nose. :)

Ukrainian tank battalions have 31 vehicles, which is why the US are supplying 31 M1 Abrams.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64404928

Fair question, and I know a lot more than I can say.

Ask yourself this - do you think Russia has committed all of their submarines, rocket forces, naval assets, Air Force assets, chemical, biological and nuclear assets to the Ukraine conflict?

Seriously?

Russia has, in power projection terms, around 20% of their forces (and that is a generous estimate) involved in this conflict. They have a lot in the tank, but using it would mean WWIII - they will use it.

I was ridiculed (well not really) when I said that drones would play a major role in this conflict, and that it was like being back at 1914 and watching aircraft be added to the fray

Ha!

Yes, Russia has already expended most of its 'rocket forces' and their naval assets have been rendered ineffective for anything other than for standing far back and launching some of the few missiles they have left. They will not commit their air force because they know they would lose much of it and then they would be defenseless, their air force is only valuable as long as they still have it.

That leaves nuclear and chemical/biological; the chemical/biological is off the table for the same reason it hasn't been used anywhere else since WW1.
The next option would be tactical nuclear, which would bring a Gulf war type of response from western air forces and which would leave them with no more air defense, no more air force and no remaining option other than all out nuclear war, which would be suicide: the end of Russia.

Russia is holding a bad hand in this game.

How do you know that, the evidence says otherwise. excluding naval forces. There is so much corruption in the Russian Army I doubt even the Russians know what they truly have available to them. In any case there is the issue of logistics and that's been an epic fail from day one.

It takes me back to the late 90's early 20's when those stories in the nuclear industry where going around about Russians moonlighting, spare parts and equipment turning up in North Korea that no-one believed because they were too incredulous. But here we are and I'm not so sure now, the same as I'm not so sure about the rest of Russia's military capabilities.

I think we have been watching too many Hollywood movies, even the Russians believe them.

Cannot tell you how I know that. But I know that.

Just like I knew about the West only doing enough to stop Ukraine from losing, got ridiculed by people , and am now being proven correct Ieft, right and centre.

I am right. Believe me or don’t - I could not care less.

Russia will go WMD, and not in Ukraine.

Turkish ship allegedly docked in Kherson hit and on fire.
​​​​​​​

Destroyed airport outside Kherson, RyanAir signage remarkably survived well.

Putin threatened to teach Ukraine (and the West) a lesson. He has done that. It has hurt him just as much as it hurt us, a kind of Pyrrhic lesson.

"We can all kind of see now what you are capable of doing. Bravo. And thank you for helping us to see our priorities more clearly."

Now it is time for Putin to declare an end to it. No one else can.

If Russia was willing to invade after only 13,000 Ethnic Russians were allegedly killed in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. I doubt they will go home after 188,000 KIA and a few shed loads of wounded .
This war will continue until the last man standing . No Peace talks in the future . Anyone talking Peace is now branded a traitor .
Just more death , destruction , disease and misery for all .
Bon Appetite.

Is he more likely to use wmd in a country that doesn't border him than one that does?

The most logical conclusion I've seen so far is that there might be a show of force to drive Ukr. to the negotiating table on his terms - a nuclear explosion over the black sea was the example given.

What you are engaging in is false appeal to authority, which is a logical fallacy.

Your argument isn't very persuasive.
You should know better than to make an argument on that basis.

I don't know what to believe anymore. I don't even believe the Russians themselves know what to believe. Has anyone considered the possibility that Russian missile fired into Ukraine with the dummy warhead on it was actually what was intended.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-wagner-group


Contract military content, no aviation.

Tea lady on the top floor?

Interesting article. He’s right about the SAW, but wrong about the F-16s.

UKR wants aircraft for CAS as much as AD, which is why the wanted A-10s, which they won’t get.

As with Abrams/Leopard, F-16s are abundant in Europe and allies, such the Dutch, are willing to provide them, and the US ambassador to the OSCE says the USA will allow them to do so.

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...y-for-ukraine/

Air defense upgrades, not F-16s, are a winning strategy for Ukraine

....er...., ... ah..., why?

There is a single individual causing the commotion, it isn't the families that are were getting Lada's without radios or electrics.... It's probably not the punters around the pac ocean coast that are given 10lbs of rotting fish from their "commander in chef", for the valuable expiration of the use by date of their sons and husbands... (it might be a fair trade, but somehow I doubt it really cuts the borsch).

There are a lot more jumpers awaiting suitable 6th floor apertures to be opened for them by their dear leader....

Please explain what part of sending the USSR Russia back into the pre Napoleon era is an improvement for any of the мамочка and папочка's out there who have lost their next generation, butchered by the dude in the "Crimlin". Putin has taken the Russian people for a ride and at some point tovarich Idi Amin meets a sticky wicket end. I don't want to see the master strategist as a pavement pizza, that would not be the coda that this show needs; he needs to be held accountable by his population, that is the manner to conclude the saga of Lord Vader Farquard.

To permit Lord Farquard to prevail and have a say in any peace agreement is to deny justice for the Russians as well as the Ukrainians that have been slaughtered because on one mans ego.

I chased boomers at the peak of the Cold War, and was impressed by the "show" that was always put on by the USSR, but there was always a lingering question; every part of our interaction with the red team air or naval assets seemed to have a lack of individual OSC decision making or initiative... it was rather reminiscent of their famous General, Potemkin.

The Russian contempt for maintenance and design finesse beyond a sledge hammer, seemed to still be in play with their more recent tests out of that amazing pink elephant the Typhoon class. Watching the failure rates of the tests, and the spectacular destruction of one that was early enough to damage the typhoon launch test platform, (there's an admiral that needed khaki not whites...) makes one curious as to who actually Russia threatens with their buckets of sunshine. Now, they only have to get lucky occasionally, but, the tests for the Borei seemed to indicate that SPF-1M and blackout sunnies would be de rigueur for the effort to punish anyone with a bucket that has a faded hammer and sickle peeling off the side. Assuming the missile touch paper works, and assuming the GNC doesn't come home ta mamma, as seems to be a trend, then the bucket of sunshine that has been maintained with the same level of care, discipline and devotion as the BMP, BMD's and T-34s that they appear to be starting to be needing to crank up, well, it may be rowdy, but it would be national sepukku at the same time. Will the obsequies Generalissimos and court jesters and the cook intervene? depends if they have any family or not I guess.

Russia has a natural born leader, he is sitting in a gulag at the behest of Count Vlad. He has the potential to be the future for Russia, and arguably to limit the extent of the collapse of the federation, or at least make it a managed process. I agree with the analysis of Peter Zeihan, there is a 4+2 letter word in Russia's future due to the over compensation of the King who would be Emperor.

IMHO.

On aviation content... The KA-52 and the Su-25 losses recently over Ukraine may point to the fact that it is a pretty bruising bit of airspace to flop about in, but it also says a lot about the competency and tactics of the USSR RF. Re ORAC's comments, I think the A-10C has a capability to be used effectively quickly by the Ukrainians. (no offence to my hog driver friends, the Ukies are familiar with LL Ops and have demonstrated the ability to use the Su-25 effectively but in limited numbers. I think that the A-10 can make a difference. The AH1Z etc could also make a difference, after all marine drivers can learn to drive them and not break them... Ouch.
(I'm sitting in a bar of a former marine driver, and that was apparently worth a clip around the ears!)

It does however open up the field to a whole load of weapons types that the current fleet cannot carry.

Agrajag
There is a good article on the BBC which explains the background to the German decision very well. I do not seem to be able to post a link to it at the moment, but it is worth a read.

Incidentally I was in Berlin on Tuesday and Wednesday and took part in the Free the Lep 2 demonstration on Tuesday.

Also I took the opportunity to meet an American woman we met in Aquba in Jordan in March last year, who works in the US State Department who was over here involved in the negotiations on this. When she was in Jordan she was arranging procurement of Soviet kit, so knows far more than anyone I have heard talk on the subject, and she is very guarded in what she says. However she thinks Scholz has played a really good game in getting his party on side, and keeping a united European front, but also making sure that the US has also come in on the tank deal. His main issue she and indeed I feel will now be selling it to the 40% of the German population who either do not like the change from the old refusal to sell arms to conflict zones, or are from the East of Germany, and have a hankering for some of the old GDR times, if not the Stasi.

Also when people talk of German peace dividend you also have to realise how much money was ploughed into renovating the old GDR areas. It is a relatively rich country, but that in particular was a very big bill which is still ongoing.

Its been an interesting week over here 🙂

Cheers
Mr Mac