If?

Russian reports are always 100% reliable. Why would they exaggerate the enemy's losses?

I suspect the man with his finger on the button will be removed from post if, or before that happens. Russia isn't stupid enough to turn disaster into extermination.

Hopefully, but it is not the soundest of strategies to rely upon and a lot more people will be killed before that eventuality.

probably as accurate as their reports of Bradleys they've already destroyed or HIMARS that has been blown up by the "heroic Russian armed forces". In essence the reports are BS and every step in the reporting ladders has multiplied their figures on their way to the top jut to cover their asses. Classic, very Soviet. The bigger the Russki numbers are the more it assures everyone that the UKR casualties are very low.

​​​​​​​KREMINNA /1510 UTC 15 JAN/ UKR units are confirmed to be in contact within the city limits of Kreminna. Back and forth fighting continues in the south and central suburban areas as RU has conducted fire missions along the C-130514 road in the south liminal areas of the city.

Beamr, I don't understand your last sentence in #13505. Is that what you meant to say? If so it makes little sense to me.

I just tried to say that the worse the situation is for the Russkies the more they lie in every level of the command chain.

I have seen several clips of alleged Ukrainian dead, some one or two, the odd one in the tens, one thing I noted is they more or less all have been relieved of their boots which must say something in regards to the poor quality of the Russian kit, one captured Russian was wearing civilian women’s boots.

Interesting point Nutty,

Eisenhower, once asked what the Russians required to take over Europe, replied "shoes".

what if anything would it take for a "neighbor" to come to ukraine's direct aid. this, a sweeping cut down from belerus to cut of western ukraine.
If russia does raise another 500000 troops and unsparingly throws them at kiev in a matter of weeks, and kiev cant pre-emt it. (even if they could/which they cant) theres a risk of them losing, and ukraine falling. let alone more tens of thousands deaths.

how long it take to plan desert storm?
was kuwait in nato. no
did sadam have WMDs yes.....did he use them, no.

WMD’s will not IMO be the decisive Russian response. A mass mobilization with the aim of defeating Ukrainian forces with overwhelming numbers will be when Putin goes all in. It would foolish to underestimate the ability of Russians to accept casualties and the fact that Putin’s personal survival hinges on avoiding a loss of control of Crimea and Donbas.

Personally I think Putin will pull the trigger on a general mobilization this summer.

How long does it take to fully mobilize the Russian Economy, Industrial Base, conscript, train, equip, feed, house, transport and sustain an additional 500,000 Russian Troops?

Then there is the small matter of raising units, establishing formations, setting up command structures, drawing from current units for Trainers, and Cadre and generate some credible sort of effectiveness.

I would suggest recent experience by the Russians does not lend itself to seeing much real success at that.

Sheer numbers. matter in a war of attrition but the matter of Will also factors into it.

One. thing for sure.....the Western Powers drag their feet and fail to get the where withal to fight with to the Ukraine Forces and the Russians can win be default...due not to the Ukraine failing to fight but the West not providing the enough of what they need to to fight with.

If that happens....WWIII is coming and it will be on the heads of the current leadership of the Western and NATO powers.

Could the ultimate winning strategy be having the Ukraine forces bleed Russian forces to the point the Russians become vulnerable to defeat later if not now.

Poland & Romania could individually get involved, still. If anything to come out of the last 11 months shows its that positions cans be re-evaluated. Courage can be found. surely for the poles if anything, yes historically country's have gone to war for them, and yes it didnt work out well you know, 50 years of Russian rule you'd think they'd have a bone to pick. Katyn to settle.
If russia invaded some of its other neighbors, say canada, japan, norway. would there be this much thinking time.

They are blowing up apartment buildings, again & still. 30 people in one go. Hoping they run out of missiles.. and tanks,etc forever seems abit, Hopeful.

Those alleged 500k troops, who will train them, where and in which time frame?
What will they be equipped with, what type of troops will they form, mech infantry surely not, light infantry with womens shoes? As an example tjey are already rolling in the T62's.

Where will they find the officers for 500k troops? Or will it be like the red rmy in the 20's when officers were shot and the troops will collectively lead (that was rather unique experiment...).

I am sure there was a reason for "partial mobilization", and the reason is they can't really fully utilize vast numbers of conscripts. The Russkies have suffered from the new millennium objective of going for professional army and they have really destroyed the Soviet era mechanisms to call in a conscript army.

Yet again, they can call in 500k men and women, but will it benefit them? Or will it be just very big and juicy artillery target for the Ukrainians?
if they do it it is a lot of men with rifles, and coming wave after wave it will be like the reports of zombies in the eastern front. So release the Leopards and give the Ukrainians the tools to repel the Russkies, preferably before the Russkies call in that 500k men. It would save a lot of human lives.

I can't believe that governments are not discussing what we on PPRuNe are. They have much more information and are well aware of consequences and necessities for Ukraine to win. There have to be high level discussions ongoing as to what to supply Ukraine; long range HIMARS and the ability to strike Russian targets has to be a major topic. I can only hope Ukraine's allies allow Ukraine to strike back in the manner they are attacked. The interdiction of rails and bridges to reduce Russian resupply are obvious targets. Ukraine is taking too much pain without responding.

That's what I'm increasingly suspecting the West is trying to do.
They could supply extra weapons to beat Russia back to it's borders - but they won't - and I don't believe it's because of the `threat of escalation'.

Another problem Russia has in mobilisation is the haphazard way they are doing it, it is ok grabbing people off the streets and chucking them to the front, but when that person is the heating engineer for a town plant and it fails with no one else who knows how to fix it as happened you are screwed, same goes for arms manufacturing, grabbing key workers as canon fodder means you then screw up your rearmament ambitions… long may it continue..

in the meantime…

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I have been saying that for months, they need to drop bridges and rail lines all over Russia as that’s the only way they can bring in troops and armour. The rail link over the Kerch bridge is in use but if you look at the bridge link they have the other road bridge being replaced next to the new lane so that part is still closed. I would also hit Russian TV and their transmitters.

I do wonder if the odd hit in Moscow would wake up Russians to what Putin is doing.

Why would anyone let this wack job out?

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