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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Winemaker 6th Dec 2022 16:56


Originally Posted by Lordflasheart (Post 11343254)
..
Posted by Winemaker


Or the President's initiative - "United24" - https://u24.gov.ua/
Seems to work a treat. Select your currency and preferred purpose.

LFH

Thanks for all the suggestion. Money donated.

ROC man 6th Dec 2022 17:00


Originally Posted by beardy (Post 11343289)
Like the one in the RAF museum at Cosford?

And the Intelligence Corps museam, Chicksands.

_Agrajag_ 6th Dec 2022 17:17


Originally Posted by Less Hair (Post 11343375)
Major Nicholson got shot. The French lost a driver as well. There were many staged "traffic accidents" intended to block tours.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_D._Nicholson

Major Nicholson's murder was long after my time, I left in 1981. The traffic accidents were a regular occurrence, mostly either getting tail gated or side-swiped at junctions. The drivers became adept at both avoiding them, and losing their tails, who were often intent on ramming them from behind. Some of those drivers could have had careers as rally drivers.

There were signifiant differences between the Brits and the Americans. For whatever reason the Brits always seemed to get away with more, and the parties were very real. Some of the parties were little more than attempts to obtain intelligence, but a lot were far more social, and formed part of a sort of cultural programme. I always felt that the Soviet contingent, at least some of them, genuinely believed that there was a benefit in encouraging us to see their culture and ideology. Romantic liaisons between the various groups (especially the French) were fairly commonplace, even if severely frowned upon.

MPN11 6th Dec 2022 18:14

The Four-Power Berlin Air Safety Centre came under my orbit. A very interesting Staff Visit ensued. The comparison between the RAF OC’s limo and the rusting, devoid of hubcaps, Russian OC’s told volumes. Although the social events were very impressive, with rotating hosts. I believe the French were regular winners by popular acclaim.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Air_Safety_Center

Beamr 6th Dec 2022 18:49

Back in the usual program the air raid sirens in Engels airbase are sounding. Another Ukrainian drone attack?




ORAC 6th Dec 2022 19:50

Good BDR thread on the Engels attack with high definition photos. Obviously clear skies…


Wokkafans 6th Dec 2022 20:00


NutLoose 6th Dec 2022 21:54

Wounded Ukrainian pilot

​​​​​​​

fdr 7th Dec 2022 01:37


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11343455)

And the AGM88 is fired at a SAM site... sited in the middle of the same civilian population, which is itself a war crime by the Russians. And they would give the evidence out of the Russians war crime.

Is there an outbreak of stupidity in Russia that all of the classical great Russians would be rolling over in their grave over? Seems that the breakdown of the education system since the fall of the USSR in the Rodina has consequences...

fdr 7th Dec 2022 04:24


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11343511)

About time we changed Karaya's ride to an F-16. The UAF has shown they are prepared to do the job in spite of the limitations of their equipment. The west has a simple choice, give Kara here a better ride so he can evict the home invaders, or end up with callsigns like "Goose", "DeadMeat", "Crash" etc or British, German, Italian and French accents going out to mess up Vlads imperial ambitions.

Under the current regime, Russia has no interest in negotiation to actually cease their war of aggression, it continues to concentrate on saving the face of Vlad, and his sidekicks Piggie'zin and Benny'dict Kadyrov make a simple apology improbable. Zed, the leader of Ukraine would get impeached if he lets Vlad have an R&R to continue Vlads attempt at extermination of Ukraine at a later date. If Russia isn't given an adequate hint to amend their plans to return to civilisation, "Goose" & co will eventually get to spend a fair amount of time on the margins of this show.

Beamr 7th Dec 2022 07:02

I am a bit puzzled by these recent drone attacks, considering that the Russkies aren't lying about what they found on site

The TU-141 has a cross section next to a F16 (well, not quite, but not that far out either, it is a big mot..., the Soviet missile that crashed to lake Inari in 1984 was much smaller yet lit the radar and the Finnish Air Force made to it)
the Soviet SAM crews trained against these slow, subsonic reconnaissance drones, so they should have no issues in detecting those with their old Soviet era kits
Engel 2 is supposed be one of the best defended AFB's in Russia
The thing flew 600km's across the most dense Russian troop formations.

How on earth did that happen? I've seen the phrase "What air defence doing?" to exhaustion but now I really am wondering that myself.

Furthermore, since the russkies did let that through their network, how on earth would they be able to do anything about the likes of F22/B2/F35 entering their territory in case of escalation by Vlad the Mad?

Asturias56 7th Dec 2022 07:33

Well D-ECJB made it all the way to Lenin's Tomb when things were hotter than they are today ...........................

Beamr 7th Dec 2022 07:48


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11343622)
Well D-ECJB made it all the way to Lenin's Tomb when things were hotter than they are today ...........................

I see your point but I reckon the situation in eastern Ukraine being a bit hotter today than the situation on the Finnish/Soviet border in 1987. I can't recall any cross border ammunition exchange back then.

ChrisJ800 7th Dec 2022 08:40


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11343611)
I am a bit puzzled by these recent drone attacks, considering that the Russkies aren't lying about what they found on site

The TU-141 has a cross section next to a F16 (well, not quite, but not that far out either, it is a big mot..., the Soviet missile that crashed to lake Inari in 1984 was much smaller yet lit the radar and the Finnish Air Force made to it)
the Soviet SAM crews trained against these slow, subsonic reconnaissance drones, so they should have no issues in detecting those with their old Soviet era kits
Engel 2 is supposed be one of the best defended AFB's in Russia
The thing flew 600km's across the most dense Russian troop formations.

How on earth did that happen? I've seen the phrase "What air defence doing?" to exhaustion but now I really am wondering that myself.

Furthermore, since the russkies did let that through their network, how on earth would they be able to do anything about the likes of F22/B2/F35 entering their territory in case of escalation by Vlad the Mad?

That is the same air defense that let a Cessna land in Red Square!

_Agrajag_ 7th Dec 2022 09:40


Originally Posted by ChrisJ800 (Post 11343654)
That is the same air defense that let a Cessna land in Red Square!

Mathias Rust was tracked successfully, Soviet AD assumed it was one of theirs for a time, apparently. The aircraft that intercepted him were never given orders to shoot him down, due, it seems, to some cock-ups within the Soviet command structure. Several officers were sacked or disciplined afterwards, according to the Wiki entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathias_Rust

I think there is probably a valid point regarding the command structure and competence of Russian forces in general, though. One stand out feature of this war has been poor decision making, coupled with poor intelligence, compounded by poor training and equipment. I can't help but wonder if Russia (and the former Soviet Union) has always had this issue. We saw signs of less than stellar performance and tactics by them in Afghanistan, and a few other skirmishes in recent years. They certainly play dirty by modern Western standards, but there often seems to be an absence of joined up tactical thinking by senior commanders.

MikeSnow 7th Dec 2022 09:41


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11343611)
How on earth did that happen? I've seen the phrase "What air defence doing?" to exhaustion but now I really am wondering that myself.

To be fair, one of those things also flew over NATO territory recently, and was not shot down:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Zagreb_Tu-141_crash

Beamr 7th Dec 2022 10:20


Originally Posted by MikeSnow (Post 11343670)
To be fair, one of those things also flew over NATO territory recently, and was not shot down:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Zagreb_Tu-141_crash

True, however there is no war going on across those borders.
We can pick up as many peace time examples as we like (Zagreb, Matthias Rust, Kortrijk crash, lake Inari etc) but those were not across a front and all of those were tracked on radar and many intercepted/escorted. But this is not the case with the Engel strike.

To compare with the Engel strike: I trust the air defence in NATO countries would be in a more alert posture if there was an actual war they were involved in and missiles would be coming in from the opposite side, especially if it would be something slowish flying 900km/h for over 600km in essence good 40min in hostile airspace. We are not talking of hypersonic wunderwaffe here.

NutLoose 7th Dec 2022 10:26

Zelensky visiting the wounded soldiers in hospital and handing out awards, the third one is an English speaking guy, (Derek?) nice to see Zelensky addressing him in English and by his name too.




fdr 7th Dec 2022 10:39


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11343699)
Zelensky visiting the wounded soldiers in hospital and handing out awards, the third one is an English speaking guy, (Derek?) nice to see Zelensky addressing him in English and by his name too.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...C8vbez7LUsAAAA

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...CxqeOG6LUsAAAA


Not many of our leaders act with the dignity, courage, leadership that Zelenskyy exhibits every day. The Baltic countries seem to be bestowed with some fine leaders at present, but for our own, and the rest of the UN, what on earth did we all do to deserve such a lack of fortitude? Here is a true leader, and war fighters prepared to defend their country against blatant aggression by a brutal neighbour, and we continue to vacillate on giving them the tools to defend themselves. Ukrainians are dying because of our leaders lack of moral fortitude, and our concerns on the price of a gallon of gas. As a consequence of the half hearted response that has been given, more Russian cannon fodder will also be turned into fertiliser.


NutLoose 7th Dec 2022 11:16

Bomb disposal visiting Chernobaivka, you can see the captured Russian Hind that the guy was swinging on the rotors of, and also the recaptured Ukrainian Mil-17 that looks like it has been used as a spares ship.


Buster Hyman 7th Dec 2022 11:20


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11343699)
ZEnglish speaking guy, (Derek?) nice to see Zelensky addressing him in English and by his name too.

Eric. :ok:
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...786eaafc1100f0

Asturias56 7th Dec 2022 12:44


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11343628)
I see your point but I reckon the situation in eastern Ukraine being a bit hotter today than the situation on the Finnish/Soviet border in 1987. I can't recall any cross border ammunition exchange back then.

yes but Engels is a long way from that border - in the 80's the whole of Russia was at risk - now they clearly think its only the areas close to the Ukraine - WRONG

FUMR 7th Dec 2022 12:49

What puzzles me (but I may have missed it) is any certainty that these attacks originated from Ukraine territory. Perhaps, like a few other recent "bangs" in Russia it was an "inside" job?

jolihokistix 7th Dec 2022 13:27

Well, we've seen photos of the old Soviet Strizh 75 kg warhead drones that Ukraine have repurposed and used on the airfields (which an astonished Russia has recognized), and we've seen the clever boat drones that they used to disturb the fleet in Sebastopol, so how about a quick one-two combo on VP's bridge project? Perhaps they are waiting for the first fuel train to make a tentative crossing. And perhaps the locomotive/engine drivers should be wearing paraglider packs.

See Beamr #12336
https://t.co/YMKbihDC0V」 / Twitter

NutLoose 7th Dec 2022 13:29

Hmmm, but one thing, WTF has it to do with the US what they donate?


_Agrajag_ 7th Dec 2022 13:42


Originally Posted by FUMR (Post 11343765)
What puzzles me (but I may have missed it) is any certainty that these attacks originated from Ukraine territory. Perhaps, like a few other recent "bangs" in Russia it was an "inside" job?


I share your suspicion that this was either an inside job, perhaps an attack by an anti-Putin faction, or even Ukrainian SF working deep inside Russia. Too much just doesn't add up to convince me 100% that this was a Ukrainian missile attack. Putin also has a great deal to gain, in terms of internal Russian propaganda, by arranging some minor damage deep inside Russia as a way to keep up the pretence that Ukraine and NATO present a real threat on Russian territory.

I'm convinced the fog of war has firmly settled around some of the attacks well within Russian territory.

Davef68 7th Dec 2022 14:05


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11343781)
Hmmm, but one thing, WTF has it to do with the US what they donate?



https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...46080151216129

Any US tech on the Leo 2?

Beamr 7th Dec 2022 15:01


Originally Posted by Davef68 (Post 11343800)
Any US tech on the Leo 2?

in short, yes.

NutLoose 7th Dec 2022 15:20

Lots of variants though, the Spanish ones didn't get sent becuse they needed a lot of work to recommission them, I think they were Leo 2-4's where as they are now up to -7 or 8's?

Tartiflette Fan 7th Dec 2022 16:07


Originally Posted by Davef68 (Post 11343800)
Any US tech on the Leo 2?

Unless the US is being two-faced in its latest comments about supply of the Leo to Ukraine, why would that be of any importance ?

Davef68 7th Dec 2022 16:25


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11343863)
Unless the US is being two-faced in its latest comments about supply of the Leo to Ukraine, why would that be of any importance ?

To answer Nutloose's comment as to what it has to do with the US. ITAR and all that


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11343781)
Hmmm, but one thing, WTF has it to do with the US what they donate?



https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...46080151216129


NutLoose 7th Dec 2022 16:56

First one a misfire?


NutLoose 7th Dec 2022 17:12

A lot of people keep mentioning giving them F16’s, so I thought I would link a Mig 29 Verses F16 combat training comparison

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/f-16...he-first-time/

Beamr 7th Dec 2022 17:29


Originally Posted by Davef68 (Post 11343800)
Any US tech on the Leo 2?


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11343824)
in short, yes.

I'll correct myself a bit, as the question is more regards the Leo 1 which has been offered by Rheinmetall to Ukraine and of which there are existing stocks for sale waiting with Bundeswehr.

The Leo 1 has more to do with US manufactured parts as it had a Cadillac-Gage stabilization system for the main gun.

The Leo 2 is more or less European build except for eg the Trophy system which is of Israeli origin. But that wouldn't concern the US.

I believe our friends across the pond are saying it's quite ok to deliver the Leo 1's to Ukraine on their behalf.

NutLoose 7th Dec 2022 17:35

Putins wittering on about nukes again but appears to be indicating they would be only used in response to a strike if the subtitles are correct.

​​​​​​​

Low average 7th Dec 2022 17:36

He's such a trustworthy chap...

Obba 7th Dec 2022 17:39

Aviation: F16 vs Mig29 in DCS...



Techy sort of info on both planes (not sure on the date of this 'tech')
.

Confusious 7th Dec 2022 17:54


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11343708)
Not many of our leaders act with the dignity, courage, leadership that Zelenskyy exhibits every day. The Baltic countries seem to be bestowed with some fine leaders at present, but for our own, and the rest of the UN, what on earth did we all do to deserve such a lack of fortitude? Here is a true leader, and war fighters prepared to defend their country against blatant aggression by a brutal neighbour, and we continue to vacillate on giving them the tools to defend themselves. Ukrainians are dying because of our leaders lack of moral fortitude, and our concerns on the price of a gallon of gas. As a consequence of the half hearted response that has been given, more Russian cannon fodder will also be turned into fertiliser.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-63890775

petit plateau 7th Dec 2022 17:55


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11343926)
I'll correct myself a bit, as the question is more regards the Leo 1 which has been offered by Rheinmetall to Ukraine and of which there are existing stocks for sale waiting with Bundeswehr.

The Leo 1 has more to do with US manufactured parts as it had a Cadillac-Gage stabilization system for the main gun.

The Leo 2 is more or less European build except for eg the Trophy system which is of Israeli origin. But that wouldn't concern the US.

I believe our friends across the pond are saying it's quite ok to deliver the Leo 1's to Ukraine on their behalf.

My memory is that Spain offered all their Leopard 1 to Ukraine, but that Germany vetoed this. Do you have any insight on that ?

Beamr 7th Dec 2022 18:12


Originally Posted by petit plateau (Post 11343944)
My memory is that Spain offered all their Leopard 1 to Ukraine, but that Germany vetoed this. Do you have any insight on that ?

German origin so they need permission from Germany to sell them onwards. And Germans... well...haven't been very forthcoming with these things.

All I know about it is from the news: as Germans were reluctant to grant the permit the Spanish took a time out on the delivery. After a while they said that the Leos weren't in good enough condition anyway to be sent due to being in storage for so long and declined the deal.
what is the real truth behind that... I have no idea.

Anyway, this is pretty standard procedure: In January Estonia wanted to provide Ukraine with 122mm howitzers they earlier had bought from Finland, which had bought those from Germany in the 90s. Finland said "fine with us" but Germany vetoed that as well at that point in time (later on the germans gave up and allowed the delivery).


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