They are preparing the audience for war against the west, just in case this situation escalates.
Firstly: in Russia no one says nothing that isn't approved by Kremlin, especially the media.
Secondly: The reasoning the state media is using is that the attack against Moskva was an attack by NATO and especially US since they are providing the weapons so from their point of view this already is WW3.

We must remember that the official Russian storyline has been that this is a peace keeping operation to protect DPR/LPR. No one has told the average russians that its a war out there and the enemy is not some biker gang but a real and capable 21st century army with hundreds of thousands of trained soldiers and incredible will to fight.

Now that they are getting hits more than they can bear, they need someone to blame: good Russians are out there to protect civilians and feeding children but the evil and bloodthirsty NATO wants to wipe the noble Russians off the face of the earth.

It's all propaganda, and intelligence services seem to be a bit worried about it as well: the CIA just warned that Putin might try to use nukes as he needs a win and he can't take a loss personally (see link underneath). We in the west may reason all we like that the Russians don't stand a chance against 20x financially more powerful military etc, but apparently Putin has crossed the line beyond that rationality. Just like Hitler who eventually stated that Germany does not deserve to survive if it loses the war so the war may as well be total war

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nuclear-weapons-burns-cia/31804539.html

I do wish I am wrong on this however it all seems to be going to a bad direction.

Vladolf is cornered and desperate. Hopefully someone in Russia retires him very quickly.

Abandoning all pretence that it wasn't an attack then?

at 1:01 on the above video it is said it was an attack. The panelist says what happened to Moskva is absolutely a reason for war.
Also, at 1:25 the presenter says that the special military operation in Ukraine has turned into a war. Unless they have already fallen out of a window by accident, this is a message from Kremlin. We need to remember that there are already 15000 russians jailed for "spreading lies regarding the Russian army". These jojos wouldn't dare to say these things without blessing from the very top.

What’s the point of linking a paywalled article?

my apologies, this should work. A bit shorter version but carries the main points: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nucle.../31804539.html

Well, for whatever reason, the Ukranians seem to be "co-operating " with this idea as they have not claimed any attacks into Russia ( bar two missiles early on ). I have no idea if this is lack of weaponry, better targets in Ukraine or a political strategy.

|t's off the charts in that show, what ever it is... there was a woman earlier making a strong case for stronger repression inside Russia and the guy in black referring to Ukranians and the west as satan and nazis... Guess the show is where they make entertainment of it and spreading the narrative...

That is one interpretation, but I think that it is more likely that a prolonged and costly war against Ukraine would be seen as a deeply embarrassing failure for Russia's armed forced. If it is portrayed as a war against NATO, then the lack of progress and heavy losses are much more easily explained and less humiliating. I doubt that Russia actually wants direct conflict with NATO.

I would like to think that what Russia wants is very different from what Putin wants. However, we were all very doubtful of Russia really unleashing a full scale war in Ukraine just seven weeks ago.

I'd love to be wrong on this.

An interesting turn of events today...

Apparently hooked up to machines for life support

Sergei Shoigu,

IG

It is a good point to make, but again I wouldn't be too pessimistic. I was convinced in late 2021/ early 2022 that there would be a large scale war in Ukraine after reading well-reasoned articles from knowledgeable commentators who made the point convincingly that the only route to a Russian strategic victory in Ukraine would be a forcible change of government through the occupation of the entire country. All the other scenarios would not have delivered what Putin needed. The point I'm making is that the decisions we saw were entirely rational (and predictable) based on Putin's view of Russian strategic interest and weren't the actions of a deranged (or delusional) mind. Clearly in hindsight the decision to invade was made on overly optimistic assessment's of Russian capability, but (to be fair) their military performance has been much more surprising than the fact that the invasion happened. I don't think that there is any evidence yet that Putin is acting in a deliberately self-destructive manner although, of course, it would be foolish to deny that he might.

I agree on this and apparently all the western intelligence services too (see the statement by William Burns, CIA). The million lives question is how do we help Ukraine to avoid this result or is Kremlin already thinking that the west is a part in the war making everyone a legit target in Putins twisted mind.
Putin changed the rules, he is unpredictable and I hope the stanislavpetrovs of the world are in place when they are needed the most.

The fact the rest of the fleet backed way way off must hint at the fact it was hit.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/russ...e-updates.html

What I don't understand is that the Neptun has a range of 300 km, yet they have supposedly only retreated to 140 km ( although 300 km would put them back in harbour in Sevastopol )

I noticed that the logo on the BBC's "App" icon on my iphone changed to a red square a few days ago.

Just showing their true allegiances?

TF,

But the report was one point in time, ships do move, does it not also put them out of range of the UAV's? It would also give them more time to react to a threat.

Isn't that more consistent with the range of Harpoon?

I have no idea what area their sensors can cover; in any case, would the Russkis not be assuming that targetting data is being fed from NATO observation assets ?

No idea. I consulted Wiki.

And the sport app is now a yellow square.

If you think BBC News has an allegiance to Russia you obviously haven't been watching their reports from the likes of Bucha or their interview with Zelensky.

The Turkish Drones have a fairly short operational radius and the movement mentioned would probably counter that UAV.

On the other hand....larger more capable UAV's are in the mix....and can easily cover the entire Black Sea.

Who is operating those more sophisticated UAV's remains classified by Ukraine and other Nations.

Then we should also remember Space Based systems that could be employed or even Submarines.

There is no knowing by the public as to where the targeting data came from.

However, the Ukraine Military gets to pass the message "Scratch one Cruiser!".

Hiding in plain sight . Those annoying trots in the students union now have careers in journalism.

I wonder if Ukraine, led by NATO intel and training, is deliberately dictating what Putin does causing him to fail?
In the same way a few bombs dropped on Berlin caused Hitler to switch from bombing RAF Airfields to civilian targets, I wonder of sinking the Moskva could cause a similar reaction?
Lead him down the garden path using his outrage as a carrot?

Rather unlikely, given what I outlined to TF a month ago. (Imagegear followed my post with some info on submarine ops in the Black Sea).
If you want to bet a line in Vegas on sources of info that are not organic to Ukraine, something on or above the surface, or in space, is the line to place your money upon.

Well, if any demonstration of the capabilities of Russian armed forces was needed, we already have it, so let’s end this thing.

Putin may not want direct conflict with NATO but seems determined to exploit NATO’s desire to avoid conflict for the sake of achieving his own objectives. And we let him do it. For NATO, it’s a high wire balancing act. I am encouraged by some glimmers of significant support for Ukrainian survival.

But ... does Putin have an escape clause that would sustain his hold on power, and in the eyes of his Public? Otherwise this drags on to the detriment of the Ukrainian people and their territory.

Otherwise, looking at the red bits of the maps, he's largely attained Plan B ... linking the illegally claimed Donbass and Crimea with the southern Ukrainian ports. So he wins, and we in the West can do sod all about it.

Ukraine isn't short of men, they are short of all sorts of equipment. There were 280k military prior to the invasion plus they had a million trained in reserves. Then they have yet another 5-10 million people of the age 18-60 that will be able to fight at least on some level, querrilla if nothing else.
It seems that the Ukrainian mentality is very ready to fight the oppressor, including civilians.
We in the west need to keep a constant flow of supply on every imaginable kit and this will be even more costly to the Russians. The Ukrainians show the strength, we need to provide the tools to throw the Russians to their box.

Thats pretty much the Russian government line, they are in a Holy War against the satanic West.
Their definition of NAZI is anyone who is the enemy of Russia, justifying genocide because it is a fight against evil.
This is not new, Russians have been fed this for many years.

Isn't that how we got him here in the first place?

He's munching the carrot and flapping his long ears.

Now, what next?

It's baffling. They've been able to visit the West, take holidays, do business here for decades. How do they sustain this wall that separates what they can see with their own eyes from what they're told to believe?

That's easy. The people seeing it with their own eyes aren't the people being told what to believe.

Not really baffling at all. Putins People by Catherine Belton is a worthy read and will give you a good insight on how he has both exploited and played the West, whilst practically declaring himself Tsar since he duped his own people to make his way into power.

Latest word is Russia is going to declare war with Ukraine as a result of the attack on Maskva - upgrading from their “action”.

Main reason is they can recall all reservists and implement conscription to fill their severely depleted ranks.

However, that will take months, and it remains to be seen if their “reserves” of equipment can be regenerated and their factories replenish munitions.

Unless I'm viewing a different map, Poo-tin's forces don't hold Odesa, and if Ukrainian performance thus far is anything to go by, neither will they anytime in the immediate future. The days and weeks leading up to May 9 are going to be very interesting, as I think that the Ukrainians may have one or more further aces up their sleeves...

There are people in "The West" who believe (amongst other things) that the Earth is flat

I think the Uka`ns should think a bit `outside the box`..use stratospheric balloons with payloads of newspapers(suitably water resistant ,and enhanced with `Window/chaff) from various launch sites so they reach maximum altitude safely. before overflying Russia.They can then be timed or electronically deploy the payload to drift down over populated areas...Items in the news should include POWs/known dead Russian troop/units,etc. May 9 over Moscow for a `ticker-tape` event...

I hate to say it, but you’re right. Amazing how many people will swallow whatever their favorite party has to say even when it is clearly and repeatedly false. It’s no longer my favorite party.