Coming from the Oz side, what are our assets doing there?
Helping to keep the arabs or the Russians honest?
Time we went home and left them to it, methinks.
(Assuming we should have been there in the first place).

Supporting 70,000 moderate rebels who love kittens according to David Cameron.................... though I made up the kitten part.

Wonder where all these 70,000 are now as they seem to have disappeared quickly as otherwise Call me Dave would be lying.

Not sure if this is the right thread, as a definite intent towards moving into Syria at the end of the exercise is missing. But with the other Saudi deployments and nuclear flag waving - and echoes of the preparation for GW I/II, it is ominous.....

Riyadh is looking to display willingness and capability to affect the status quo militarily

The Northern Thunder military exercise that began on Monday is a show of power designed to pass the message that Saudi Arabia is a regional security provider, leading a Sunni coalition against Daesch. This is the largest indigenous army the region has ever seen. How many troops will participate depends on whom you read: 150,000-350,000 troops could be engaged.

The gathering of one of the largest Muslim force in history is a significant message for Daesch, but others may interpret the message differently. The Sunni common denominator of all the powers invited to participate could also be seen as a message to Assad, to Iran, and, finally, to Russia.

Saudi leadership is also a message in-itself. This multinational force is officially coordinating its efforts with the United States and, therefore, has a clear political trajectory that may be seen as predictable, or at least not threatening to the West. But, it is clear that diplomatic discourse changes when someone has the power to physically affect the status quo.

The substance of the drill

On Sunday, troops from the Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Senegal, Sudan, Maldives, Morocco, Pakistan, Chad, Tunisia, the Comoro Islands, Djibouti, Malaysia, Egypt, Mauritania, and Mauritius gathered for a military drill to last until March 10.

The drill involves 20 countries, amongst whom, Egypt and Pakistan, both of whom have sizable and equipped armies. Egypt has the largest army in Africa; Pakistan is a nuclear power.

Military substance

The military substance of the drill is inter-operability, in a fighting force with a wide range of military equipment in anyting from fighter jets and tanks, to air defense systems and naval forces. Of those states engaged, only the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – Saudi, UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait – have developed interoperability in the so-called Peninsula Shield fighting force. This is an operation much greater in scale.

Strategic messaging

The political and strategic substance of the drill is the show of an army with 350,000 strong troops, 2,500 warplanes, 20,000 tanks and 450 helicopters, under Saudi leadership. The 20-member coalition makes part of a broader 35-member Arab and Muslim (Sunni) coalition put together by Saudi Arabia. If this force ends up deploying ground forces in Syria, what will happen when they encounter Iran-backed forces, such as Hezbollah or the Syrian Army.

Upon a Sunni common denominator, many will read other subtexts, including Arab nationalism. Speaking to “Gulf News” Quatari officials deny the exercise is meant as a warning towards Iran or Russia, but that may be the “collateral effect.” What would happen if one of these Sunni coalition planes shot down a Russian jet fighter; due to the Turkish precedent, that is a fair question.

Saudi jet-fighters are already in Turkey. There is an Iran-Saudi encounter in Yemen, although mostly by proxy. Last week, General Ahmed Asseri of the Saudi military confirmed last week that ground troops stand by to be sent to Syria.

Questions to address

With the Sunni coalition ready to deploy in Syria, the imminent short term question is “how will Iran respond”; if in kind, then this is the beginning of a regional standoff that will have too many variables to be predictable.

In the medium term is who will lead the campaign against the ISIS and Assad. Turkey is not “an supplement” to the military coalition led by Saudi. But, the size of the Saudi led coalition and the willingness to deploy ground troops, could mean that the future course of action may be decided in Riyadh, as much as in Brussels, Washington or Moscow, which is unprecedented.

(Saudi Press Agency, Gulf News, Al Arabiya, National Interest, International Business Times)

The Saudis won't be going into Syria at any time, they're too busy having their ass handed to them by the houthis in Yemen.

I thought that the news was wide spread that those two loser guys spoke on the phone and agreed on the truce...


Here are the sources on both banks of the pond:


US and Russia agree to enforce new Syria ceasefire | World news | The Guardian


U.S. and Russia agree on Syria cease-fire terms, officials say - CBS News


So, let's wait for some 5 days and see whether it really works.


I am a little bit pessimistic because Assad is actually dancing the Iranian dance (not Russian), and many small dispersed groups called as "fighters for freedom" are controlled/financed by Saudis, Qatar, Turkey and thus are not totally under the full US control.

Things escalating to a larger regional crisis?

Saudi Troops in Syria Send Shivers Through Tehran

UAE issues travel ban to Lebanon, Saudi calls for its citizens to leave | The National

Could the Syrian Conflict Spread to Lebanon and Russia?

Iran should worry about the Russian agenda - FT.com

..........The repercussions of Iran’s aggressive defence of its Shia axis in Arab lands stretch beyond the Middle East. To continue on a path now charted by Russia will sabotage any re-engagement with the west. A Russian victory abetted by Iran in what is left of Syria cannot but be perceived as a huge setback for the US — as well as for a Europe divided by a refugee crisis which still has a long way to go.

An Arab foreign minister says he asked Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister and lead negotiator in last year’s nuclear talks: “Does Iran want to be the leader of the Persian world, or the leader of the Shia world?” In other words: a recognised regional power or the spearhead of a sort of Shia supremacism in permanent conflict with (ever more radical) Sunni supremacism. There is not much time left for Iran to decide whether its international and regional face is that of Mr Zarif or General Soleimani.

Those videos of yours ORAC just go to show that whilst you may not be able to polish them, you can indeed successfully roll them in glitter...

Now others are starting to get uneasy - including the EU. (But the Express are just panicking....

EU's Mogherini: War between Russia and Turkey could be on the horizon

"We are always referring to Syria as a proxy war among regional actors. This risks to become something bigger than this. I'm not thinking of a cold war. No, we risk a hot war among different actors than the one we always think of. Not necessarily Russia and the United States, but Russia and Turkey, could be. And, as Europeans, we have a clear interest in trying to contain and scale down the tensions,"

Mogherini said during a debate at the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee........

Actual war may replace deputation war: Turkey's Deputy PM

......."We (Turkey) warn all parties of the deputation war, particularly the United States and Russia, of a coming actual war, which is to replace the ongoing deputation war unless they come up with a human-oriented solution which will satisfy all the parties in Syria," said Kurtulmuş.....................

Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare war push against Assad in Syria | World | News | Daily Express

Saudi warplanes to arrive at Turkish base on Friday

Two C-130 military cargo planes, carrying about 30 Saudi Air Force personnel and military equipment had already arrived at İncirlik on Tuesday to prepare for the deployment of fighter jets, the private broadcaster CNN Türk reported, citing diplomatic sources. Four F-15s will arrive at the base on Friday. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, also on Thursday, said the Saudi warplanes are expected to arrive at İncirlik "today or tomorrow."

With the arrival of the Saudi jets, there will be five foreign countries with aircraft at İncirlik for military missions in Syria. This will also mark the first time Saudi warplanes have been deployed at a Turkish base for military operations.

Çavuşoğlu announced earlier this month that Saudi jets were to be deployed at İncirlik to take part in missions against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). A Saudi official later said that Saudi jets have been at the base but Turkish officials did not confirm their arrival until now.

Saudi Arabia has also said it was prepared to deploy ground troops to Syria to fight ISIL if the US-led coalition against the extremist group agrees to the offer.

Syrian rebels and a group monitoring the conflict said insurgents had shot down a warplane over western Syria on Saturday, although there were conflicting accounts on whether it had been brought down by a missile or anti-aircraft guns.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said a rebel group had brought down the jet in Hama province by firing two heat-seeking missiles, saying the plane was most probably Syrian. But a rebel group operating in the area, Jaish al-Nasr, said it had brought down the jet with anti-aircraft guns.

There was no immediate word from the Syrian military.

That video showed unguided AAA fire.
Then a jet either blowing fire out of the exhaust or letting off some flares. I think it was the former.
Then the film was edited, to show something that caused a dust cloud.


Translated as "shot down an airplane" has me waiting for further word.


Video number 1 reports that a plane landing at an airfield was shot down, in violation of the ceasefire agreement. (Gee, who'd have seen that coming?)

Lonewolf,


It was written in the Russian media (which I always read with some reservations) that a 2-seat MiG-21 of the Syrian AF (2-seat is a training aircraft, normal combat configuration implies a single pilot) was shot in the vicinity of the airbase. The rumors were that it was going for landing and thus was an easy target.


It was also said that one pilot ejected and landed safely in the village controlled by own forces. The second one intended to land the damaged aircraft but failed and met the ground. I am skeptical about the latter (intended to land), though...

Russia Withdrawl
 

Putin is pulling a Reagan and cutting and running from Syria.


Vladimir Putin Orders Russian Military Pullout From Syria - NBC News

The Sultan

Reagan never invaded Syria. Would you care to put a little more meat on this bone? As in, WTF are you talking about?


As to Putin's decision, it makes political sense. He backed his boy, his boy is still in the seat (albeit the country's a wreck), a peace talk thing happened, he can declare victory if he wants to.


That's politics as usual.

Lebanon, barracks bombing, etc I thought it was obvious.

The Sultan

Putin has read the handwriting on the wall and he doesn't want to get caught up in a war with Turks, Saudis and UAE on one side and Iran and Assad on the other. Assad is far from secure.
In other word, time to leave while you can.

Or, to put it another way, "do as you are told or we are off".

Analysis: Why Putin Picked This Moment to Pull Out of Syria - NBC News

An interesting analysis of why Putin went in, and why he's leaving. UK based think tank. One of the objectives has been met, which is to replace the Ukraine thing in the news with Russia doing something more positive.

At least 250,000 people have died, but the UN stopped counting in 2014.

I guess that the UN no longer believes that Syrian lives matter. So be it.

I do not think it has any links to Ukraine as a UK (likely sofa-based) think tank tries to present. The whole Ukraine issue is a piece of cake for various conspiracy fans that often loose the ground in their paranoid dreams.


IMHO, Carnegie Moscow Center could provide a better picture and analysis. At least it is funded by Rockefeller, Ford and some other foundations plus supervised by CIA, and those guys do not give money to idiots ;)


However, it is indeed possible to artificially link Ukraine to these Russian activities just by giving an order to Kiev to start shelling the separatist-controlled regions once again. The latter, obviously, will reply and then the propaganda will, as usual, keep silence about the regime shells and only take note of those coming from separ's and adding that the "Russian killing machine woke up". Hope it will not happen.

Fair enough, Russia has enough interests in the Mid East to want to take action when those interests are threatened.