No idea whether it's true, justified or otherwise, but that is a great answer.

Well, that's the Germans for you.

Warplanes at Akrotiri
 

Reports the Grauniad:

Syria crisis: warplanes spotted in Cyprus as tensions rise in Damascus | World news | The Guardian

smuj:

Fifteen years ago, a planning assumption was made that Syria would get their hands on NK made, or Soviet made, extended range TBM's. (Scud and longer range theater class ballistic missiles). This informed some of the NATO planning and C2 architecture for air and surface radar programs.

Syria's current inventory includes various Scud versions, and a few of the NK made variants. From what I can gather in open source material, ranges are up to 550 km. I don't know if the later NK variants have boosters to increase that range. Been out of that game for a bit too long.

Cyprus is well within range, FWIW.

FWIW, and to answer my critic further up:

I tripped over this article this afternoon, and it suggests that "Let 'em play" is the actual American strategy adopted by President Obama. I usually take Ed Luttwak with a grain of salt, but his article may give you pause.

I somehow doubt Syria would attack Cyprus, regardless if it was in range.

That really would incur a response and the Syria air defences are not
impregnable as shown by Israel.

29sq the Typhoon OCU has deployed to Cyprus for a period of Summer training. Unlikely to be anything to do with Syria due to them being the OCU.

Agreed, 500N. And what on earth would they gain by attacking Cyprus? IF the West go in, they will have plenty to deal with without smacking a random, Mediterranean island.

Lazer-Hound,

Further to Ronald's post

29 Squadron Exercise

When the US Secretary of State describes something as a moral obscenity that's a pretty good indication that a decision has been made to go in.
If air-strikes do follow the cruise missiles - then thoughts are with those flying in.
Those Pantsirs and Strelas look like nasty pieces of kit - let's hope they get as many of them as possible in the initial SEAD strike, or at least shut the radars down.

500N and Courtney,

I accept both of your arguments. I was asking about a Syrian reaction of "hit Akrotiri". You are both saying, "what would be the logic ?", but why should a leader like Assad follow a logical thought process ? I'm sure his threats of any attack would "end for America as Vietnam did" are a bit "overbloated". But seeing how mates Saddam and Gaddafi fared would his thinking go, "I'm buggered if they get me without I do them some damage" ? Hence my question, Cyprus is in range, an obvious target and also will be providing support to "coalition" forces. More importantly, an easier target, being fixed, than an American fleet. Like a few posters on this subject I wonder how Camoron and Co will explain our blackouts as the Russians switch our gas off. There's so many what ifs in this, its really worrying which way it goes.

Smudge

Ree Syria's AD systems, I would have thought that the US at least
would have sought information from Israel about how they went
about it when they bombed the Nuclear Reactor. After all, it was
a very successful raid.

Smuj
By Cyrpus I meant the Air base only, not the whole island.
I am no expert so can only guess that he wouldn't do it even
if it was providing support. It just takes the whole thing to
another level and not sure he or the Russians would want that.
Just my HO.

I would suspect the US was pretty heavily involved in actually supplying the Suter algorithms and other technology to the IAF for the Reactor raid.
The technology to assume control of an AAD operators radar without them being aware was developed by BAe and the US Big Safari program.

I never fail to be intrigued by the desire of successive British Governments, from Blair to Cameron to seek a military resolve, by the U.S. and H.M. Forces, each time while seeking to reduce, what must now be, beyond the irreducible minimum H.M. Forces equipment, resource and manpower availability, for international policing of other countries. I suspect that this time around they'd better not get too far up Putin's nose or he'll do something stupid?!,

FB

I would be very surprised if Akrotiri plays any significant role in a theoretical combat operation against Syria, for the very reason that it is so open to attack by TBM and the huge complications that direct involvement in local hostilities would bring to the UK-Cyprus relationship. The US have plenty of bases of their own in the region (e.g. Souda Bay and Sigonella) which are outside TBM range but easily inside the combat radius (with AAR) of all likely participating aircraft. The UK could easily base its forces elsewhere in the region, as seen during the Libyan operations.

All - not sure how accurate this still is - but for those who are interested here's the SAAF orbat already in the public domain.
Lists 22 airbases in all, including joint civil/military.

Wouldn't it be easier to shift the Israelis and go wind power?

Whatever else happens, I'm pretty sure he won't attack Cyprus. Even with all the recent economic problems there, it's still Outer Moscow.

the more i think about it the more im convinced that we are deliberately backing the bad eggs in opposition to the not quite as bad- so that when the country country goes to rat**** with various factions battling for power we will have more mandate to strole in as it suits, as opposed to doing it against a legitimate government.



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Reading the exact comments of Cameron, Hague, Obama and Kerry I suspect that, unless there is a major change in the situation, a cruise missile strike on Air Defence infrastructre will go in on Sunday morning and a fixed wing SEAD Operation of limited extent will follow-on.:uhoh:
This will be followed by an attempt to establish a UN supported No-Fly zone.

Why else are the Western politicians softening up their populations?
Just my opinion.

OAP

Do you reckon they will risk fixed wing aircraft where it is possible
one being downed ?

I just think the risk of that might be too high for this lot of pollies.

Could Cruize missiles do the job ?

That's what I wondered.
The Syrians seem to have quite a bit of kit - that'd be a lot of cruise missiles to take it all out... and even one of those Pantsir things missed could create a lot of pain - wasn't that the type that shot down the Turkish F4?
Then there's all the Iglas and other manpad bits and pieces...