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BBC News - Israeli strikes on Syria 'co-ordinated with terrorists'
Damascus airstrikes BBC News - Damascus military facilities 'hit by Israel rockets' "Syrian state media said the rockets hit the Jamraya research centre, which Western officials have suggested is involved in chemical weapons research" "It is the second suspected Israeli strike in Syria in two days." Israeli jet shot down over Damascus: Hezbollah TV | News , Middle East | THE DAILY STAR :} "BEIRUT: An Israeli warplane was shot down by Syrian air-defense units during a raid near Damascus early Sunday, Hezbollah's Manar television station reported, citing security sources in the Syrian capital. There was no independent confirmation of the claim and Israel did not comment on the raid reports. |
Ignore- could not post vid
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Israel were not too unhappy with the Assads running Syria, the family provided little trouble for decades.
The revolutionaries contain many salafists (including lots of volunteers from abroad, including the UK). Israel doesn't want these people running a country on their borders. So to strike against Assad means they have a bigger problem. Or several. Syria has Fateh-110 missiles from Iran, these are accurate super Scuds with a 200 mile range. Syria also has a substantial chemical weapons capability. Both of these give Israel sleepless nights. Especially if Syria supply Hezbollah with the missiles. Or just about anyone with the chemical weapons. Jamraya is a collection of military complexes that are behind a mountain to the west of Baghdad, not a long way from the Lebanese border. This is the second time Israel has hit it. But this time they went in much bigger and took out an assortment of targets. Including using earth penetrators against the many bunkers there. That they succeeded to some degree in their aims can be seen with the immense firework display visible from Baghdad, which could well have been Fateh-110 solid fuel going up. It looks like the West is planning a safe zone in the north, next to the Turkish border, which would then be declared as a no fly zone. This would help stem the refugee problem and give the West a vehicle to control the political process amongst the Syrian opposition, minimising salafist power. Expect Typhoons to be flying out of Akrotiri to enforce this. |
It looks like the West is planning a safe zone in the north...which would then be declared as a no fly zone....Expect Typhoons to be flying out of Akrotiri to enforce this. |
Eclectic, did you mean "Damascus" when you wrote "Baghdad?" in your post?:confused
You hypothesis on the no fly zone near Turkish border makes some sense to me. |
Or perhaps he meant Beirut.
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OOPS! Senior moment.
A safe zone next to the Turkish border could be enforced with Patriots inside Turkey + AWACs. Then SEAD could be done progressively till air superiority is achieved. |
I am not a military man, but I would say they hit something....
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=953_1367764824 |
The politics for a safe zone have been discussed in the Economist newspaper (which is very well connected on both sides of the Atlantic) for some months. As in this article from last November. Middle East and Africa: Syria?s agony | The Economist
The idea was promoted publicly in America by Senator John McCain the week before last: PressTV - McCain urges 'safe zone' for Syria rebels The debate on this has hotted up considerably over the last couple of days since the Israeli strikes: Democrats and Republicans think US closer to arming Syrian rebels, after Israeli strikes | Fox News America just recently put a lot of diplomatic effort in getting Turkey and Israel to kiss and make up. Mainly for handling the Syrian situation. The Americans are training Syrian rebel fighters at camps in Jordan and Turkey (with UK assistance). The Americans are indirectly supplying arms by the CIA orchestrating the supply activities of the Arab gulf states. America also has special forces in position to act should the chemical weapons situation escalate. So have the Russians. The problem is that all the American, UK and Gulf aid is wasted whilst Assad maintains air superiority. He can drop oil drums full of TNT from helicopters on to bread queues (a favourite tactic) with total impunity. So sooner or later, to some degree, that air superiority will need to be degraded. We won't give the rebels MANPADs because they could fall into the hands of salafists and end up being used at a civil airport near you. Though the rebels have captured some MANPADs and used them effectively. They shot down an Assad helicopter yesterday. The safe zone makes a lot of sense because it can be very flexible and progressive and because the Patriot batteries are already in place. We could implement it this afternoon. Then gradually extend the size of it and implement SEAD. This would help stem the refugee tide, which has become a major problem. Also it would give the West a degree of political control, thus reducing the power of the salafists. Politically we have learned a lot from Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. With what we know now we would have done these campaigns very differently. We cannot get a country to switch instantly from being an oppressive dictatorship to being a Western liberal democracy. All we can do is to work towards the replacement regime being less bad. Mali being an example of how our doctrine has changed. Some may say why should we. And they have a very valid point. The problems for the West iinclude young people being radicalised who then wage asymmetrical warfare against us, as in 9/11. Some would say that American policy has made this worse rather than better. Then there is our reliance on Arab petrochemicals. The situation here has changed very rapidly and very fundamentally with fracking in America. It has changed the global strategic balance. Then there are WMDs. Bliar and Bush lied to us about these so we are very cynical. However the Tokyo underground sarin attack proved just how devastating a small amount can be in the hands of the wrong people. And in Syria today there are lots of the wrong people and lots of nerve gas. Syrian nerve gas: NBC Weapons: What Is Known About Nerve Gas In Syria "Syrian nerve gas is stored at some fifty locations all over the country." So we have an accident waiting to happen. The salafists could very easily release this in the London or New York undergrounds if they got their hands on it. |
Syrian Rebels the bad guys
Puts a different spin on things!
UN accuses Syrian rebels of chemical weapons use - Telegraph Typical of the west to support the wrong side yet again! |
One of the problems with any kind of international law on conflicts is that such laws derived from a situation where all sides were clearly located and expected to 'play by the rules'. Not only are there now many anti-Western groups not linked to easily definable geographic areas, but those groups are specifically exploiting the international law loopholes to further their causes. Al Qaeda et al are in breach of every single condition of the Geneva Conventions. We are mugs to keep 'playing by the rules' when they don't.
To my mind, the two questions the three questions that come into play about any action by nation states are: Will it work? What message does this send out for now and the future? What are the consequences if we do nothing/fail? I feel the worst crime, morally, is losing. This is where me and those who claim that, for example, the fire- and atomic bombings in WWII were immoral part company. Losing to the totalitarian regimes would have been a far worse moral crime than the deaths of x hundreds of thousands of unarmed citizens ensuring the end of the war. That said, I object to quite a number of current 'illegal actions' on the above grounds. The invasion of Iraq and subsequent occupation didn't 'work'. I'm not convinced most rendition 'worked'. I think the current Israeli bombing works. They are targetting specific weapon systems which could cause grave consequences for their people. There has been minimal collateral damage (or you can bet it would have been on every Arab TV channel), and they clearly hit weapons targets as shown by the secondaries. |
Ronald:
Their evidence isn't as hard as they'd like it, but it seems to be as good as the evidence that the regime may have. Eclectic's point overrides either consideration: if there are fifty or so locations where such stuff is stored, then the sarin gas is a bad news event just waiting to happen, within or beyond Syria. |
Regarding the rebels using sarin, this is eminently possible. They have captured several major Assad bases and the weapons in them, this is how they got their MANPADs. With Assad's sarin being widely dispersed it would be surprising if the rebels hadn't found some. And, as Assad has been using sarin for about a month, why not hit back in kind?
Sarin degrades pretty quickly when stored. So it is usually created by mixing two precursors immediately prior to use. This sometimes happens within the shell. Otherwise it could be quite technically demanding, requiring expertise from the rebels or the presence of specially trained defectors. |
Wouldn't a no-fly zone in the north create a free-fly zone in the south and nearer Israel?
I can see how Patriot can enforce a narrow no-fly zone on the Turkish border but how far and how low? Then don't confuse Air Superiority with Air Supremacy. The latter is required for a NFZ, the former will mean the airspace is continually contested and sometimes we would lose. |
If I may quote this for thruth:
Then don't confuse Air Superiority with Air Supremacy. |
Assad has diddled the Pooch....he has authorized combat action against the Israeli's! So he is going to fight a Civl War and the Israeli's....now that is chutzpah!
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SAS
Do you have a source for that ? |
Yes....know nothing of the credibility of the source however.
http://www.thetower.org/exclusive-as...cks-syrian-tv/ |
Syria attacking Israel on the Golan Heights: Rockets fired from Syria fall in Israel-occupied Golan - Daily News Egypt
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One of the problems with any kind of international law on conflicts is that such laws derived from a situation where all sides were clearly located and expected to 'play by the rules'. The Moralising by the press that somehow there is respect for International law is blowing smoke to make it look like they are the good guys and others the bad guys. In war there ain't any good guys. |
Assad has diddled the Pooch....he has authorized combat action against the Israeli's! So he is going to fight a Civl War and the Israeli's....now that is chutzpah! BiBi wouldn't be in Shanghai if there was an attack going to occur................it will all go calm. |
Self Defense is always a Nation's Right!
Nothing about Assad is "right". I said at the end of the Gulf War (the first one), we should road march the US Military through Syria to the Med and put them on ships there as it would solve a problem with Syria and make the homebound freight a lot cheaper than having to go the long way round. |
Jesus SAS, they couldn't even go to Bahgdad and you wanted
them to march to the Med, cleaning up all the xxxx along the way :O Nice idea. Would have stopped Syria from being a large entry point for rebels in Gulf Two. |
Nothing about Assad is "right". What have they got now? And what will they have when the Islamic Terrorists finally win, with western support? I'll put money it won't be better than what they had under Assad and in several respects it will be a lot worse. |
The rocket fire was “apparently connected to the situation inside Syria,” she added, suggesting Israel was not targeted but that it was a spillover of fighting between the Syrian regime and rebels. “The Israeli army combed the sector the rockets fell in and informed the UN forces deployed in the Golan,” the spokeswoman said. I suspect they don't want to get involved in the Syria fight, and that Assad is to them a lesser of two evisl sort of deal. |
Israel invading Syria would be a huge gift to Assad, as the more radical Islamicists in the rebels would immediately shift all of their attention to the IDF forces, taking most of the pressure off Assad's loyalists.
Israel knows this, which is why the only thing they are doing is hitting arms shipments heading from Syria to Lebanon. |
Some critical thinking applied to Syria and the Region
Andrew J. Bacevich
An excerpt from his recent comments on the security issues in Syria Recall that the modern Middle East is a relatively recent creation. It emerged from the wreckage of World War I, the handiwork of cynical and devious European imperialists. As European (and especially British) power declined after World War II, the United States, playing the role of willing patsy, assumed responsibility for propping up this misbegotten product of European venality -- a dubious inheritance, if there ever was one. Now it's all coming undone. {Aside: Lonewolf_50 notes that Yugoslavia came undone similarly, and was constructed similarly} Today, from the Maghreb to Pakistan, the order created by the West to serve Western interests is succumbing to an assault mounted from within. Who are the assailants? People intent on exercising that right to self- determination that President Woodrow Wilson bequeathed to the world nearly 100 years ago. What these multitudes are seeking remains to be seen. But they don't want and won't countenance outside interference. Anyone fancying that the United States can forestall this quest for self-determination should think again. Anyone who thinks Washington can bend the process to suit our own purposes needs to undertake a remedial study of the Iraq War. Americans have long entertained the conceit that we are bigger than history. We provide the drumbeat to which others march. Sorry: Not so. By way of comparison, think of those stories about the sea encroaching on some Nantucket or Plum Island home. Those immediately affected might delude themselves into thinking that a bit of sand replenishment will save the day. Grown-ups know better. Ultimately, the winds and tides, reinforced of late by climate change, will have their way. So too with the Greater Middle East. Pressure on Obama to "do something" about Syria continues to mount. Perhaps he'll refuse. I hope so. Or perhaps he'll cave, with Syria becoming yet another active theater in what has become America's endless War To Be Named Later. One thing is certain: US intervention in Syria won't affect the tsunami of change that is engulfing the Islamic world. I think he got this one right. His Bona Fides: Bacevich graduated from West Point in 1969. He served a one year tour in Vietnam, 1970 to 1971. {The first book of his that I read was on Vietnam}. Later he held posts in Germany, including 11th ACR, and in the Persian Gulf. Retired Colonel. He holds a Ph.D. in American Diplomatic History from Princeton University. Taught at West Point and Johns Hopkins University, now at Boston University since 1998. Bacevich's son, a first Lt, was killed in action in Iraq by an IED (In Iraq, near Samarra) in 2007. (3rd Bn, 8th U.S. Cavalry Regt, 1st Cav.) Bacevich is of Lithuanian ancestry, and has described himself as a "Catholic conservative. In this article his criticism of both GW Bush and B Obama regarding America's wars is concisely presented. Punch line: "Who is more deserving of contempt? The commander-in-chief who sends young Americans to die for a cause, however misguided (Bush), in which he sincerely believes? Or the commander-in-chief who sends young Americans to die for a cause in which he manifestly does not believe and yet refuses to forsake?" {Lonewolf notes: the latter could also be said of LBJ} |
And here is a slightly different take from the BBC
Whatever happens, I think that the "west" should steer well clear of arming the terrorists in this case, unless (and its probably already too late) we want to see another ME country tearing itself apart because of a split in Islam several hundred years ago. Whatever one may think of the current/former leaders of Syria, Iraq, Libya etc these countries did not suffer the religous slaughter that now pervades each country and which is likely to endure for years :( Lonewolf Not sure that the "venal Europeans" can really be "blamed" for Yugoslavia; the desire to form such a state was driven largely by the population involved (at least according to Wikipedia). And of course the fact that the US "assumed responsibility" was nothing to do with US access to oil, was it? Not saying that Mr Bacevich is entirely wrong, just that there is a bit of pro-American and anti-European rhetoric in that article. := |
Russia to supply 6 Grumble launchers and 144 missiles to Assad. This is a substantial strategic game changer and would deter the Israelis from further action. Also any Western enforced no fly zone would be a lot more difficult to police.
Story from WSJ: U.S. Is Warned Russia Plans Syria Arms Sale - WSJ.com |
Turks very keen for a no fly zone. Erdo?an: Türk hastanelerinde kimyasal silahtan etkilenmi? Suriyeli yaral?lar var - WSJ.com
Akrotiri will be busy. What UK assets will go? GR4s for SEAD + AWACs + tankers? |
The Russian Foreign Minister has cleared up the rumours of S-300s being supplied to Syria.
No S-300 supplies planned, Russia finalizes standing Syrian weapons contracts - Lavrov Russia is not planning to supply Syria with any weapons beyond the current contracts that are nearing completion, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said refuting speculations that Moscow was going to sell S-300 air defense systems to Damascus. “Russia does not plan to sell,” Lavrov told reporters on being asked on S-300 air defense systems rumors. He stressed that Russia has only been fulfilling contracts that have already been signed with Syria for defensive weapons. |
Turkey-Syria border town hit by car bombs
Syria's civil war spilled over the border into southern Turkey on Saturday when a series of car bombs killed 40 people in the town of Reyhanli. This was the bloodiest incident on Turkish soil since the onset of Syria's civil war in 2011. Four explosions near the town hall devastated the centre of Reyhanli in the Turkish province of Hatay. Muammer Guler, the interior minister, told local media that 40 people had been killed and at least 29 wounded. The government made no accusations about responsibility for the attack, but Ahmet Davutoglu, the foreign minister, said: “Those who for whatever reason attempt to bring the external chaos into our country will get a response.” After the bombings, local people vented their anger by vandalising cars with Syrian number plates and attacking Syrian refugees. Thousands have arrived in the area, raising tension with the Turkish host population. Reyhanli, with a population of about 60,000, is near the Cilvegozu frontier crossing with Syria. Turkey has openly supported the Syrian rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, allowing them to arm, train and recruit using bases inside its territory. Accordingly, Syria’s regime has a motive for striking back by attacking Turkey. In the past, Syrian forces have fired artillery shells and mortar bombs over the border, killing five Turks in the village of Akcakale last October. In the past, the Turkish army has often retaliated in kind. After the Akcakale incident, when a mother and her three daughters were among the dead, Turkey responded by bombarding targets inside Syria. |
Might the PKK be stirring the pot? :sad:
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Could be just as easily be the Qatari and Saudis falling out because FSA is imploding and joining Al Q or Russia targeting a supply route or M16 trying it on.
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M16 trying it on? By M16 did you mean MI6? :confused: |
May be true, might be Turkey setting up a casus belli, but expect either Syrian forces to be hit hard or a almost undeniable demand for a No Fly Zone.
Turkey Blames Syria for Bombing REYHANLI, Turkey—Turkey on Sunday blamed groups connected to Syria's intelligence service for two car bombings that killed at least 46 people in a Turkish border town a day earlier, the deadliest sign yet that Syria's civil war is spilling over into neighboring states. A pair of car bombs exploded in Reyhanli, a small Turkish town near the Syrian border. More than 40 people were killed and over 100 were injured by the blasts. Photo: Associated Press. Turkish officials said Sunday that security services had arrested nine people, all Turkish citizens, including the alleged mastermind, after two car bombings ripped through Reyhanli, a small town close to Syria. Syria denied any involvement in the bombings. Turkey's interior minister, Muammer Guler, said an investigation showed that the huge blasts—which damaged almost 500 shops, 300 homes and 60 vehicles—were carried out by a "terrorist organization in close contact with Syria's intelligence agency." The government didn't immediately publish evidence that showed Syrian involvement, although Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said a number of the suspects had confessed links to Syrian intelligence services................ |
Just as likely to be FSA trying to trigger a western response. I wonder how much of the headline massacres, use of chemical weapons has in fact been the FSA (read al q) trying to cross lines in the sand and invoke a NATO intervention.
Do we really want Al Q on the Mediterranean coast? |
Not sure who "we" is but I sure don't. I see nothing good coming from that.
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Jabhat al-Nusra - usually reckoned to be the most successful of all the rebel groups, these guys make the Syrian Army look like a charity organisation. They have been categorised by the US as a terrorist organisation, but are Sunni-backed and led (probably) by a Golani i.e a Syrian formerly from the Golan Heights. These guys are capable, and capable of anything ....
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The sizeable Kurdish community in Syria are a complication. The Turks don't want to supply and train Syrian opposition only to end up as the victims.
Ultimately the Kurds would like to have their own country carved out from northern Iraq, a chunk of Turkey and a chunk of Syria. Just now in Syria they are asking that any post conflict settlement is a federal state with a semi-autonomous Kurdish state within a state (much like they have achieved in Iraq). The Turks are in the middle of the process of coming to a political settlement with the Kurds. They have Abdullah Öcalan in jail, which makes him very available for negotiations. Lots of information about the various political machinations here: ORSAM |
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