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-   -   Here it comes: Syria (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/513470-here-comes-syria.html)

Eclectic 26th Aug 2013 10:37

A French newspaper is reporting that a coalition has been put together of US, France, UK, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Italy, Canada and Turkey in order to attack Assad.
Cameron has returned from holiday and heads a war cabinet tomorrow.
There are increasing calls for Parliament to be recalled before we strike. But spokesmen are saying this may not be necessary (due to the limited nature of the proposed strike and the need to act quickly).
Syria: Britain and US pledge to use force within two weeks as UN weapons inspectors prepare to visit alleged chemical weapons attack site - Middle East - World - The Independent
Hague says UN backing not necessary (Kosovo precedent).
On Saturday the 4 US destroyers in the Mediterranean were ordered closer to Syria.

Onceapilot 26th Aug 2013 10:57

Well "something" is brewing if DC needs to return early from his hol's. He is in the seat of government and, he hasn't come back just to talk to MP's:uhoh:.

OAP

air pig 26th Aug 2013 11:02


Alemaobiano

And of course those nice, friendly, rule & fairness-adhering chaps in Al Qaeda PLC. wouldn't dream of using Bio-Chemical weapons on an area of secularist Syrian civilians would they?

Knowing that the gullible, soft-handed, spineless political apparatchiks of the liberalist western democracies would fall for such a trick.

Syria is not our war.
Totally agree, waiting to hear what the Russian Foreign Minister has to say in a couple of hours. We will have had by Wednesday two and a half days to recall Parliament on standby. Whilst I hate labours guts with a passion, the idiot Alexander is right on the nail for once. This is a situation which is NOT a national security risk to the UK, in fact may increase our risk domestically.

The coalition of the willing include Saudi Arabia and Qatar, enemies of Iran, yet more explosives to add to the pot and may give Iran the excuse to close or restrict traffic in the Straits of Hormuz.

Sky, reports that snipers have shot at the UN inspection team, Assad's forces or rebels.

Politicians shouting their mouths off is making the situation worse and ramping up the bloodlust for action. Ashdown calling for limited action, man's hardly ever right at the best of times and in my opinion wrong again.

Time to stay out, not be involved and support Jordan and Turkey with the refugee problem.

alemaobaiano 26th Aug 2013 11:09

Eclectic

I said proof, not propaganda videos. You know, something like an unequivocal statement from the UN that the regime has used CW, or even a definitive statement from one of the politicians itching to get involved. Wee Willie's "belief" doesn't count, after all some people believe in Santa and the Easter
Bunny.


And of course those nice, friendly, rule & fairness-adhering chaps in Al Qaeda PLC. wouldn't dream of using Bio-Chemical weapons on an area of secularist Syrian civilians would they?
As a good percentage of the "rebels" are not Syrian they wouldn't actually be using CW on their "own" people, would they?

Eclectic 26th Aug 2013 11:12

@ alemaobaiano

You obviously haven't watched all those videos.
Two are from the BBC.
And one is US government.

alemaobaiano 26th Aug 2013 11:16


Two are from the BBC.
And one is US government.
And none of them contain any proof. Plenty of supposition, plenty of opinion, and yet not one piece of concrete evidence.

air pig 26th Aug 2013 11:16


@ alemaobaiano

You obviously haven't watched all those videos.
Two are from the BBC.
And one is US government.
And, which kind person/s gave them to the BBC and the US.

TURIN 26th Aug 2013 11:22

I'm not military, never have been. But, are we really going to go to war based on tv reports?



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Eclectic 26th Aug 2013 11:23

It seems that you don't believe governments and top Western experts.

So the only valid proof would be to go and see for yourself.

Ronald Reagan 26th Aug 2013 11:24

Wow the state of those rebels in the videos earlier, and a few on here along with some western governments want them to run Syria, simply unreal!
Assad is still clearly the least bad option, actually compared to them his regime running Syria seems a pretty damn good option!

For those of short memory lets look at the last terrible and pointless little war that did far more harm than good!

Two years on from the fall of Colonel Gaddafi in Libya, the euphoria of the revolution has all but gone. Today, armed militias and Islamists rule much of the country fighting over territory, smuggling routes, and shares of dwindling oil revenue. To top that off, a desperate government is quietly re-activating Colonel Gaddafi's feared surveillance apparatus, using it to hunt down dissenters. RT's Paula Slier reports on the sobering anniversary.
Tripoli Torment: Libya crippled by jihad & oil brawl 2 yrs after Gaddafi ouster - YouTube

Another place totally ruined! If Assad falls this will be Syria in the future! Maybe Syria could even be worse. I am made sick to the stomach by Cameron, Hague, Obama, Hollander and Erdogan. (Erdogan himself is a much reviled figure by many in Turkey).

Boy_From_Brazil 26th Aug 2013 11:25

Sadly it looks as though the worst is going to happen, no matter what the inspection teams find out.

I couldn't imagine a more fragmented coalition, with more diverse and extreme political agendas. It only needs Israel and Iran to make it even more flaky. Not too sure how Canada fits into it, other than having a bully on its Southern border! Hopefully they are joining purely because of the moral issues.

At this point, it matters very little who the evil b@stards were that used the gas, things are about to get very much worse. The potential outcome could be extremely messy, overspilling into the Mid-East, Europe and probably beyond.

Ronald Reagan 26th Aug 2013 11:27

Eclectic, do you honestly expect any of us to believe anything that the UK, US or French governments have to tell us?
I remember Iraq and WMD!

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me!

Also check out my link about Libya above. I think that war was the final nail in the coffin for my support of the fools we call politicians, also the final time in my life I would ever vote Tory! As for the muppet Labour party not a chance either.

air pig 26th Aug 2013 11:31


It seems that you don't believe governments and top Western experts.
I remember the sh*t Blair with 45 minutes and weapons of mass destruction and lying to the UN. Trust a politician, only when their cold dead body is on a mortuary slab even then without a stake through the heart (if you can find it) I would be sceptical they were dead.

alemaobaiano 26th Aug 2013 15:07


It seems that you don't believe governments and top Western experts.
Given their propensity for outright deception why should I believe any government who has an interest in this conflict?

And what of the western experts who aren't convinced? Here's a collection of dissenting views.

Syria: 1,300 killed in gas attack, says*Oppn - Hindustan Times

Fox3WheresMyBanana 26th Aug 2013 15:38

Before anyone else joins in the Syrian mess, I'd love to hear what the 'out' plan is, or even what the objectives are.
Those points should be compared to how well such plans/objectives have worked (as Ronald Reagan has pointed out), in Libya, 'Stan, Iraq, etc.

I do not hear any great clamour to 'do something' from any significant proportion of the general populus in the countries contemplating action. Indeed, all the chat I hear is against action.

So what, exactly, are the political leaders up to?

Roadster280 26th Aug 2013 16:02

If Assad has used chemical weapons against his own citizens, it pretty much stands to reason that he will use them against foreign aggressors on his soil.

I can imagine the apoplexy in Washington & London if that happens. What to do if (when) that happens? Nuke Damascus?

I see nothing but own goals ahead here.

Lonewolf_50 26th Aug 2013 17:04


Originally Posted by satsuma (Post 8008945)
Lonewolf 50
Your choice of words is borderline inhuman given the atrocious savagery that has recently been witnessed. I am, however, sure that you sleep soundly and safely in your comfortable bed.

And I am responsible for none of that. My words are not inhuman, and your overwrought post establishes your lack of perspective. Thanks for sharing your outrage. I sleep quite well, thanks, as I'm not the one gassing people. Save your ire for those who are.

In other news:
Seems that the Alloha Snack Bar brigade forgot that cover and concealment, like harassment, must be continuous to be effective.

Eclectic:

Re chemical weapons. Syria has one of the world's largest stockpiles. Assad has been using them regularly against the rebels since 19 March this year, without the world doing anything.
Unproven assertion, but you may be right. The trouble is in confirming this line of thought. There is the chance that Assad believes that he can get Russian top cover, and thus thinks he can get away with this sort of thing. But adding to the number of parties in this mess, even if it hurts him, strikes me as a fine way of making it into a bigger mess.

I am hoping that the US and Russia can find some way to work together on this problem in Syria. That to me is the critical domino that needs to fall for the international community to be able to assist in any meaningful way beyond refugee support.

EDIT:
For those who didn't go to the Hindustan times link ...

Specialists in the impact of chemical weapons said the video evidence was not entirely convincing.

"At the moment, I am not totally convinced because the people that are
helping them are without any protective clothing and without any respirators," said Paula Vanninen, director of Verifin, the Finnish Institute for Verification of the Chemical Weapons Convention. "In a real case, they would also be contaminated and would also be having symptoms."

John Hart, head of the Chemical and Biological Security Project at Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said he had not seen the telltale evidence in the eyes of the victims that would be compelling evidence of chemical weapons use.

"Of the videos that I've seen for the last few hours, none of them show
pinpoint pupils... this would indicate exposure to organophosphorus nerve
agents," he said.

Gwyn Winfield, editor of CBRNe World magazine, which specialises in chemical weapons issues, said the evidence did not suggest that the chemicals used were of the weapons-grade that the Syrian army possesses in its stockpiles. "We're not seeing reports that doctors and nurses... are becoming fatalities, so that would suggest that the toxicity of it isn't what we would consider military sarin. It may well be that it is a lower-grade," Winfield told AFP.

Russia, which has previously said it has proof of chemical weapons use by the rebels, expressed deep scepticism about the opposition's claims. The foreign ministry said the timing of the allegations as UN inspectors
began their work "makes us think that we are once again dealing with a
premeditated provocation."
The fog or war extends beyond Syria's borders, eh?

If we look back into history, we recall reports in the early months of WW I that included
GERMANS BAYONET BELGIAN BABIES.
BELGIAN NUNS RAPED BY VICIOUS HUNS

In 1898, America went to war with Spain over Cuba, with a critical piece of rhetoric, the explosion of USS Maine in Havanna Harbor, being blamed on the Spanish. A somewhat famous Naval Officer named Hyman Rickover did an investigation that, to say the least, cast serious doubt on any external agent being the proximate cause of that explosion.

Ronald Reagan 26th Aug 2013 17:31

Hysteria around chemical attack suits those who want military intervention in Syria - Lavrov ? RT News

smujsmith 26th Aug 2013 17:49

Playing Devils advocate, and interested in your insight, I wonder if anyone knows if Syrian Missiles can reach the only aircraft carrier serving in the British Military, RAF Akrotiri. If so, I could see a wave of Tomahawks on Syria being answered by Syrian missile attacks on Troodos, Akrotiri etc. I'm sure that even the Russians might argue that the Syrians were defending themselves from external aggression. How many would die in Cyprus, if chemical agents were used ? Of course, US military, being mobile and not easily hit could soldier on. Does anyone else wonder on a similar course of events, or are the Syrians not capable of such responses ?

Smudge

Rosevidney1 26th Aug 2013 17:50

G-FORC3 wrote:
If ever there was a purpose for having the UN, this is it.

The United Nations is not only unfit for purpose, it has demonstrated its crass ineptitude so expensively so many times.

Courtney Mil 26th Aug 2013 19:52


Originally Posted by LoneWolf
And I am responsible for none of that. My words are not inhuman, and your overwrought post establishes your lack of perspective. Thanks for sharing your outrage. I sleep quite well, thanks, as I'm not the one gassing people. Save your ire for those who are.

No idea whether it's true, justified or otherwise, but that is a great answer.


Originally Posted by LoneWolf
If we look back into history, we recall reports in the early months of WW I that included
GERMANS BAYONET BELGIAN BABIES.
BELGIAN NUNS RAPED BY VICIOUS HUNS

Well, that's the Germans for you.

Lazer-Hound 26th Aug 2013 19:58

Warplanes at Akrotiri
 
Reports the Grauniad:

Syria crisis: warplanes spotted in Cyprus as tensions rise in Damascus | World news | The Guardian

Lonewolf_50 26th Aug 2013 19:58

smuj:

Fifteen years ago, a planning assumption was made that Syria would get their hands on NK made, or Soviet made, extended range TBM's. (Scud and longer range theater class ballistic missiles). This informed some of the NATO planning and C2 architecture for air and surface radar programs.

Syria's current inventory includes various Scud versions, and a few of the NK made variants. From what I can gather in open source material, ranges are up to 550 km. I don't know if the later NK variants have boosters to increase that range. Been out of that game for a bit too long.

Cyprus is well within range, FWIW.

FWIW, and to answer my critic further up:

I tripped over this article this afternoon, and it suggests that "Let 'em play" is the actual American strategy adopted by President Obama. I usually take Ed Luttwak with a grain of salt, but his article may give you pause.

500N 26th Aug 2013 20:08

I somehow doubt Syria would attack Cyprus, regardless if it was in range.

That really would incur a response and the Syria air defences are not
impregnable as shown by Israel.

Ronald Reagan 26th Aug 2013 20:17

29sq the Typhoon OCU has deployed to Cyprus for a period of Summer training. Unlikely to be anything to do with Syria due to them being the OCU.

Courtney Mil 26th Aug 2013 20:18

Agreed, 500N. And what on earth would they gain by attacking Cyprus? IF the West go in, they will have plenty to deal with without smacking a random, Mediterranean island.

TEEEJ 26th Aug 2013 21:59

Lazer-Hound,

Further to Ronald's post

29 Squadron Exercise

tartare 26th Aug 2013 22:13

When the US Secretary of State describes something as a moral obscenity that's a pretty good indication that a decision has been made to go in.
If air-strikes do follow the cruise missiles - then thoughts are with those flying in.
Those Pantsirs and Strelas look like nasty pieces of kit - let's hope they get as many of them as possible in the initial SEAD strike, or at least shut the radars down.

smujsmith 26th Aug 2013 22:23

500N and Courtney,

I accept both of your arguments. I was asking about a Syrian reaction of "hit Akrotiri". You are both saying, "what would be the logic ?", but why should a leader like Assad follow a logical thought process ? I'm sure his threats of any attack would "end for America as Vietnam did" are a bit "overbloated". But seeing how mates Saddam and Gaddafi fared would his thinking go, "I'm buggered if they get me without I do them some damage" ? Hence my question, Cyprus is in range, an obvious target and also will be providing support to "coalition" forces. More importantly, an easier target, being fixed, than an American fleet. Like a few posters on this subject I wonder how Camoron and Co will explain our blackouts as the Russians switch our gas off. There's so many what ifs in this, its really worrying which way it goes.

Smudge

500N 26th Aug 2013 22:32

Ree Syria's AD systems, I would have thought that the US at least
would have sought information from Israel about how they went
about it when they bombed the Nuclear Reactor. After all, it was
a very successful raid.

Smuj
By Cyrpus I meant the Air base only, not the whole island.
I am no expert so can only guess that he wouldn't do it even
if it was providing support. It just takes the whole thing to
another level and not sure he or the Russians would want that.
Just my HO.

tartare 26th Aug 2013 22:59

I would suspect the US was pretty heavily involved in actually supplying the Suter algorithms and other technology to the IAF for the Reactor raid.
The technology to assume control of an AAD operators radar without them being aware was developed by BAe and the US Big Safari program.

Finningley Boy 26th Aug 2013 23:23

I never fail to be intrigued by the desire of successive British Governments, from Blair to Cameron to seek a military resolve, by the U.S. and H.M. Forces, each time while seeking to reduce, what must now be, beyond the irreducible minimum H.M. Forces equipment, resource and manpower availability, for international policing of other countries. I suspect that this time around they'd better not get too far up Putin's nose or he'll do something stupid?!,

FB

Easy Street 26th Aug 2013 23:52

I would be very surprised if Akrotiri plays any significant role in a theoretical combat operation against Syria, for the very reason that it is so open to attack by TBM and the huge complications that direct involvement in local hostilities would bring to the UK-Cyprus relationship. The US have plenty of bases of their own in the region (e.g. Souda Bay and Sigonella) which are outside TBM range but easily inside the combat radius (with AAR) of all likely participating aircraft. The UK could easily base its forces elsewhere in the region, as seen during the Libyan operations.

tartare 27th Aug 2013 01:51

All - not sure how accurate this still is - but for those who are interested here's the SAAF orbat already in the public domain.
Lists 22 airbases in all, including joint civil/military.

JSFfan 27th Aug 2013 04:21

Wouldn't it be easier to shift the Israelis and go wind power?

strake 27th Aug 2013 06:29

Whatever else happens, I'm pretty sure he won't attack Cyprus. Even with all the recent economic problems there, it's still Outer Moscow.

ex_matelot 27th Aug 2013 06:54

the more i think about it the more im convinced that we are deliberately backing the bad eggs in opposition to the not quite as bad- so that when the country country goes to rat**** with various factions battling for power we will have more mandate to strole in as it suits, as opposed to doing it against a legitimate government.



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Onceapilot 27th Aug 2013 07:26

Reading the exact comments of Cameron, Hague, Obama and Kerry I suspect that, unless there is a major change in the situation, a cruise missile strike on Air Defence infrastructre will go in on Sunday morning and a fixed wing SEAD Operation of limited extent will follow-on.:uhoh:
This will be followed by an attempt to establish a UN supported No-Fly zone.

Why else are the Western politicians softening up their populations?
Just my opinion.

OAP

500N 27th Aug 2013 07:31

Do you reckon they will risk fixed wing aircraft where it is possible
one being downed ?

I just think the risk of that might be too high for this lot of pollies.

Could Cruize missiles do the job ?

tartare 27th Aug 2013 08:14

That's what I wondered.
The Syrians seem to have quite a bit of kit - that'd be a lot of cruise missiles to take it all out... and even one of those Pantsir things missed could create a lot of pain - wasn't that the type that shot down the Turkish F4?
Then there's all the Iglas and other manpad bits and pieces...


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