Hey, why not? Why be boring?

Israel has repeatedly attacked and destroyed targets in Syria they believe to be a direct threat - whether the reactor many years ago or convoys of rockets for movement to Lebanon and Hezbollah.

This site is, perhaps deliberately, close to the Russian airbase and its SAW defences. It will be interesting to see if they do attack it - and if the Russians let them.

lot of if's and buts in that article TBH -

explosives - probably,

missiles? No evidence....................

And Netanyahu needs a distraction form teh multitiude of legal actions he's embroiled in

Not sure what to make of this report, given its taint of UN blathering, but the report calls out Syria having used chemical weapons a few dozen times.



I guess they took their cue from Trump to make sure that they could argue that there were violations by both sides. (Then again, there are a whole lotta sides in this mess, in Syria).

Erdogan launches attack on Kurds’ stronghold in Syria

Turkey has launched an attack on a US-backed Kurdish militia operating in northwestern Syria after President Erdogan vowed to “tear down” the group’s border strongholds. Convoys of Turkish tanks are lining up outside Afrin, a small island of territory in Idlib province controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Ahead of an all-out assault, the Turkish army is pounding the area with artillery from its positions inside Idlib. “Our preparations have been completed. The operation could start at any time, and then will come the turn of other regions,” said Mr Erdogan.

The implicit threat against not just Afrin but the swathe of northern Syria controlled by the Kurds — with US military support — could bring two Nato allies into armed confrontation. The US announced at the weekend that it is helping the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition dominated by the YPG, to set up a 30,000-strong border force to protect the area it has captured along its frontlines with Turkey, Iraq, and Syrian regime forces. The YPG, for its part, promised Turkey a fight. “The Kurdish people will rise up as a whole. It will be total warfare,” said Saleh Muslim, former head of the group’s political wing.

An assault on Afrin would be the biggest Turkish operation inside Syria since the summer of 2016, when special forces soldiers crossed the border to confront Isis. That brought the Turkish military and its rebel allies up against US-backed Kurdish forces in the same area, taking two Nato member states to the brink of battle for the first time since the 1974 Cyprus conflict......

Kurdish officials have told The Times that they will not relinquish any of the territory they have won. Mr Erdogan, however, has grown increasingly pugnacious as it has become clear that the US will not be scaling down its support for the SDF. “Here is what we say to all our allies and friends: lower your flags on the terrorist organisation yourselves so that we won’t have to hand those flags over to you ourselves,” he said yesterday. “Rip your insignia off the terrorists’ uniforms so that we won’t have to bury them alongside terrorists.”

Until recently, the various state players involved in Syria’s conflict had taken steps towards peace. Turkey and Russia had agreed to guarantee ceasefires in four de-escalation areas, including Idlib. The details came through the Astana process, brokered by Turkey, Russia and Iran, which has overtaken the UN-backed Geneva negotiations as the main forum for dialogue between President Assad and the opposition. Turkey, which has supported the opposition and some armed rebel groups since the start of the conflict, has established military lookout points inside the province as part of the agreement.

However, that détente is now unravelling. The Syrian army, backed by Russia and Iran, is advancing into the rebel-held areas of Idlib province from the south, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing from their homes towards the Turkish border. That has breached the de-escalation agreement and provoked anger from Ankara. Binali Yildirim, the Turkish prime minister, warned on Friday that the assault could have “dire consequences” for the Astana process.

Russia, although opposed to the setting up of an SDF border force, has invited Kurdish representatives to peace talks in Sochi next month, a move that Turkey opposes.

“Erdogan might have thought the window of opportunity for an attack on Afrin might be closing if the Astana process fails. This is one of the main reasons he chose this moment to signal the operation,” said Guney Yildiz, from the European Council on Foreign Relations. “However, there isn’t enough international support for a Turkish operation against Afrin. The operation is also militarily extremely risky.”

OH man, that's a hornet's nest of trouble just waiting to burst out. Keep your eyes peeled for air to air de-confliction issues to crop up very quickly. Not a good development.


While I completely understand the Turk's problem with the Kurdish issue, and were I in Erdogan's shoes I might feel moved to act similarly, my sympathies are with the Kurds ... but why, I ask, does the UN not provide the Kurds with the kind of support that the Bosniaks, Palestinians, and a whole host of other national identity groups? What's their core unattractiveness as a people? Not miserable enough?

The UN provides support to the Palestinians?

I don’t know about other sorts, but moral support: absolutely. The General Assembly’s voting record is evidence enough of that.

Some food for thought: geography and history about Kurds in this region:


http://i.imgur.com/phjaGdb.jpg?2


The issue is indeed difficult. If they were given a "strong autonomy" in one country, the neighboring ones would blow up demanding the same, and since the spots of their living are adjucent, it would quickly result in unification and demand for a new country.

What's yellow and comes pouring down out of the hills?


Highlight invisible answer below.


Lemon Kurd(s)

What's yellow...
 

Very clever!

Turkish Attack begins - with Russian cooperation.

https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-te...ins-1516395787

What will happen to the natural Syrian Kurd inhabitants of Afrin?

As usual, you, ORAC, are shifting the context. The Russians simply withdrew some personnel (not so many were there) from that area. That's a turkish business, why to be in the middle?


Will be interesting to see if any support for those fighters for freedom comes from the US, Turkish big brother in NATO.

Actually, no attack other than shelling has begun. The Turkish article above makes it clear that apart from the sporadic shelling this is a psychological 'de facto' phase, and Turkish troops are not involved anyway. The Turks are said to have transported thousands of FSA fighters to the border east of Afrin, but only 20 buses were observed. How is that possible?

Really?

Syria: Turkey war planes launch strikes on Afrin - BBC News.

No surprise, Kurdish independence is something both Turkey and Iran vehemently oppose.
So if the US actually supports the Kurds, there is likely to be a rearrangement of alliances in the Middle East.
However, precedents suggest the Kurds will again be sold out, as the Turkish invasion is also convenient for helping to remove Assad, something Secretary Tillerson has indicated is a US goal.

The Turkish-leaning FSA fighters looked pretty reluctant, even sheepish, in those first shots.
Well, Lyneham Lad, I guess I must add bombing to artillery. No Turkish feet on the ground, though, not until the first pilots are shot down and captured anyway. Let us hope that Turkish/Erdogan rhetoric and pride has not generated an unstoppable impulse. I guess they would like to ask the Kurds to politely pull back to the eastern banks of the Euphrates, but would the Kurdish fighters just leave traditional Kurdish towns and villages behind unprotected in this brave new Syria?

Well, the situation changes hour by hour. Now it seems that the Turks will be sending in their own troops and would like a 30 km wide buffer along their border to keep the Kurds back. The Syrian government however who have traditionally been pretty tolerant of them, may see the Kurds as a safety barrier against Turkey, according to this article:
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...-in-Afrin.html

This from Al Jazeera makes Turkey's aims a little clearer:


Major Yasser Abdul Rahim, who is also the commander of Failaq al-Sham, a main FSA rebel group in the operations room of the campaign, said the rebels did not seek to enter Afrin but encircle it and expel the YPG. "We have no interest in entering the city only the military targets inside the city and the villages around it. We aim to encircle the city and ensure the militias are evicted. We won't fight in the city as we have no problem with civilians," he said. A main goal of the military operation was to recapture Tel Rifaat, a town southeast of Afrin, and a string of Arab villages the YPG captured from rebels in February 2016, driving out tens of thousands of inhabitants, Abdul Rahim said.
Tension rises as Turkey sends troops to YPG stronghold | News | Al Jazeera

AvWeek has a good piece by Tony Osborne with AVM Johnny Stringer,
"Royal Air Force Facing Long-Term Fight Against Islamic State Group"

RAF Facing Long-Term Fight Against Islamic State Group | Defense content from Aviation Week


airsound

Snuck out in today’s news.

Sarin gas that killed thousands in Damascus is from Assad’s stockpiles

Chemical weapons inspectors have for the first time linked the sarin gas used in an attack in Damascus in 2013 to President Assad’s stockpiles. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) matched “markers” on samples taken from the site of the attack in rebel-held eastern Ghouta with sarin stocks handed over to the UN by Assad’s government in 2014.

The finding supports western and Syrian opposition claims that regime forces carried out the attack in the early hours of August 21, 2013, killing more than a thousand people. Assad has always denied responsibility, claiming that rebels carried out the attack themselves in order to push the West towards military intervention. The OPCW also found links between Assad’s sarin stocks and the chemicals dropped on the town of Khan al-Assal in Aleppo province in March 2013, in what was believed to be the first chemical attack of the war. It had already reported the same link with the attack in the Idlib town of Khan Sheikhoun last April. “It was serious matching and serious laboratory work,” a source at the OPCW told Reuters.

Other experts have confirmed that the matching components in the various samples constituted solid proof that the chemicals used on civilians in the three attacks came from Syrian government stockpiles. “A match of samples from the 2013 Ghouta attacks to tests of chemicals in the Syrian stockpile is the equivalent of DNA evidence: definitive proof,” said Amy Smithson, a US non-proliferation expert.

The findings are, however, unlikely to result in any concrete action being taken against Assad. The joint UN and OPCW inquiry was halted in November after Russia blocked a motion to renew its mandate........

Nonsense about analogy with DNA. "Jihadmobils" used by ISIS are based on Toyota SUV and belonged to somebody before they were taken by terrorists. So, blame the previous hosts they were stolen from, or Toyota?
In the chaos that was in Syria in 2013 (and still is), various groups or rebels and terrorists could capture the governmentals stocks and use it later.


When the US destroyed one of the Assad's AF base about a year ago, the explanation was that chem. weapons were there. But when the US were invited to visit it after and collect whatever samples they would find, they refused.

And were the terrorists able to capture and operate the equipment required to deploy these chemical weapons?

I imagine such an "inspection" would have been effective as the other ones that were arranged in Iran, Syria, Iraq...


"Yes, we will be very happy open that building for you...how about two weeks from today? After lunch OK?" Surprise, surprise- nothing in the warehouse.....


An older, but perhaps relevant account:


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKCN1AX107

Crew (2) reported to have successfully ejected and be recovering in hospital.

Israeli fighter jet shot down by Syrian fire, says military

Syrian anti-aircraft fire has shot down an Israeli fighter and Israel struck an Iranian target that had launched an unmanned aircraft into its airspace from Syria, the Israeli military said.

“IDF (Israel Defence Forces) has targeted the Iranian control systems in Syria that sent the [unmanned aircraft] into Israeli airspace. Massive Syrian anti-air fire, one F16 crashed in Israel, pilots safe,” Israeli military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus said on Twitter on Saturday.

The tweet added that Iran was responsible for “this severe violation of Israeli sovereignty. Event ongoing, more to follow”. According to a separate military statement, Israeli forces had identified an “Iranian UAV” launched from Syria and intercepted it in Israeli airspace with a combat helicopter.

Israeli media said the jet crashed in northern Israel.

Syrian state media said air defences opened fire in response to an Israeli act of “aggression” against a military base on Saturday and hit “more than one plane”, citing a military source. “The Israeli enemy entity at dawn today conducted a new aggression against one of the military bases in the central region. Our air defences confronted it and hit more than one plane,” the unidentified military source said.

This is a developing story, please check back for updates......

Israel Downs Iranian Drone, Strikes Syria; Israeli F-16 Shot Down, Pilots Safe

The Israeli army said Saturday morning that it intercepted an Iranian drone launched from Syria into Israeli territory. In response to the provocation, the IDF attacked Iranian targets in Syria. According to the Israeli army, Syrian anti-aircraft missiles targeted an Israeli F-16, prompting the pilots to eject. The plane went down in northern Israel. The two pilots were taken to the hospital in stable condition.

IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Ronen Manelis said "We identified an Iranian drone UAV which took off from Syrian territory. The drone was identified by IAF systems and was downed by an IAF helicopter. The Iranian drone fell in our territory and is in our possession. As part of the country's defenses, sirens were activated but there was no danger for the residents of Beit She'an. It was decided to attack the trailer from which the Iranians launched the UAV. This was a surgical action deep in Syria, target destroyed."

"This is a serious Iranian attack on Israeli territory. Iran is dragging the region into a situation in which it doesn't know how it will end. We are prepared for a variety of incidents...whoever is responsible for this incident is the one who will pay the price."

Syrian television claimed Saturday morning more than one Israeli aircraft was hit by Syria's defense systems.

Due to Syrian anti-aircraft fire, says the army, rocket sirens sounded in multiple areas of northern Israel, first in the northern Israeli town of Beit She’an and later in the surrounding areas and Golan Heights. Residents reported hearing many explosions in the last half hour and heavy aerial activity in the area near Israel's borders with Jordan and Syria.

The Syrian army and rebels in the Syrian Golan Heights are currently exchanging heavy fire.

JERUSALEM

The Latest on Israel shooting down Iranian drone over Syria (all times local):

10 a.m.

A Syria war monitor says Israel has struck targets in central Syria and the southwestern suburbs of the capital Damascus in two separate and successive waves of airstrikes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the first round targeted in the central desert area where Syrian troops and their Iranian-backed allies including Hezbollah are known to maintain bases. It cited unconfirmed reports of casualties among Syrian government forces and allied militiamen. The Britain-based Observatory, which monitors the Syria war through a network of activists on the ground, says the second round targeted outposts in the southwestern suburbs of Damascus....

2 up in an F-16? TF variant or something else?

So as usual, Israel is telling fibs

F-16I Sufa Multirole Fighter - Airforce Technology

https://cdn.airplane-pictures.net/im.../30/340307.jpg

Syria war: Israeli fighter jet crashes under Syria fire, military says - BBC News

pictures in link

An Israeli F-16 fighter jet has crashed amid Syrian anti-aircraft fire after an offensive against Iranian targets in Syria, the Israeli military says.
The two pilots parachuted to safety before the crash in northern Israel. It is believed to be the first time Israel has lost a jet in the Syrian conflict.
Israel was carrying out strikes after the launch of an Iranian drone into Israel. The drone was intercepted.

Syria accused Israel of "aggression", as Israel then launched more strikes.

"Moments ago, IAF aircraft, targeted the Syrian Aerial Defense System & Iranian targets in Syria. 12 targets, including 3 aerial defense batteries & 4 Iranian military targets, were attacked. Anti-aircraft missiles were fired towards Israel, triggering alarms in northern Israel."
Israeli strikes in Syria are not unusual, the BBC's Middle East correspondent Tom Bateman says, but the loss of an Israeli fighter jet marks a serious escalation.

In a statement, the Israeli military said "a combat helicopter successfully intercepted an Iranian UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] that was launched from Syria and infiltrated Israel". It said the drone was identified quickly and was "under surveillance until the interception". The drone went down on Israeli territory and was "in our possession", IDF spokesperson Brig Gen Ronen Manelis said.

The military said that in response the IDF "targeted Iranian targets in Syria". It said the mission deep inside Syrian territory was successfully completed.
After coming under Syrian anti-aircraft fire, the F-16's two crew ejected and were later taken to hospital. One of them was "severely injured as a result of an emergency evacuation", the IDF said. It was not clear whether the F-16 jet was hit by anti-aircraft fire or went down for other reasons.

It is the first time Israel has lost an aircraft in combat since 2006 when an Israeli helicopter was shot down over Lebanon by a Hezbollah rocket, the Jerusalem Post reports. All five crew on board - including a female flight mechanic - were killed in that incident.

Residents reported hearing a number of explosions and heavy aerial activity in the area near Israel's borders with Jordan and Syria. Syrian state media quoted a military source as saying that the country's air defences opened fire in response to an Israeli act of "aggression" against a military base on Saturday, hitting "more than one plane".


Later on Saturday, the army said a new wave of attacks was launched against 12 Syrian and Iranian targets in Syria. Eight of the Syrian targets belonged to the fourth Syrian division near Damascus, IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus said. All the Israeli aircraft from this sortie returned safely. "Syrians are playing with fire when they allow Iranians to attack Israel," the spokesman warned. He added that Israel was willing to exact a heavy price in response but "we are not looking to escalate the situation".

Analysis by BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus
For years Israel has been striking at weapons stores and other facilities in Syria with a single goal - to disrupt and as far as possible to prevent advanced Iranian missiles being delivered to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Syria has often been the conduit for these shipments. But the changing balance of power there, with the Assad regime's survival bolstered by Iranian help, has introduced a powerful new element - a direct Iranian role in the crisis.

A more confident Iran is alleged by Israel to be setting up bases in Syria (whether for its own or its proxy Shia militia forces is unclear). But it is also alleged to be developing missile factories, both there and in Lebanon, to make the supply lines to Hezbollah less vulnerable. Israel's campaign to disrupt missile supplies is becoming ever more complex. And Iran risks becoming a direct actor in this conflict, ever closer to Israel's own borders.

Interesting to read that the Syrians/Iranians fired over 25 SAM to take down the Israeli F-16 - and the Israelis have now destroyed the vast majority of all the Syrian SAM sites in retaliation.....

they claim...

but even so its like hitting moles with a hammer - they'll pop up again quite quickly....

You do realise that the SOHR is one guy living in a flat above his clothes shop in Coventry. :=:rolleyes:

If they wanted to, the IAF could wipe Putins Patriots off the face of the earth.. and anyone else who stuck their nose in.

Quote: The Britain-based Observatory, which monitors the Syria war through a network of activists on the ground..."
Yes Wokkafans, we all know the facts regarding this lone voice collating reports from the ground. Would you prefer he lived in a palace?


We have the Syrian version, the Israeli version, and now the version of this network on the ground. There is little else available, so I for one am thankful for what triangulation there is. Besides, the Observatory has a pretty good track record of neutrality, on balance, and much of the information they provide cannot be found anywhere else.

Israeli Wounded Pilot Upgraded to Stable Condition

A pilot involved in Saturday's crash of an Israeli jet was upgraded to moderate condition, Rambam Medical Center in Haifa announced on Sunday. Trauma Unit director Dr. Yaron Bar Lavie said the pilot was removed from his respirator and he is fully conscious. "We are happy to report that the condition of the pilot has gotten better. We have ceased the anesthesia and he has returned to full consciousness ... and now his condition is good. His wife his with him and he's talking to her," said Bar-Lavi.

President Reuven Rivlin visited the wounded pilot on Sunday afternoon.

The second pilot of the jet that was allegedly shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft fire, who was mildly wounded, could be released as early as today, Dr. Mickey Halbertal, deputy director or the hospital told Army Radio on Sunday morning. Halbertal said the mildly wounded pilot suffered injuries from his parachute descent and the other one suffered a penetrating wound to his chest and abdomen. "His chances for healing are good. There will be pain and treatments, but I assess he will recuperate."

Meanwhile the cost of shooting down the F16 is being tallied up by Syria and Iran.

When messing with Israel there is always a consequence.

U.S. Strikes Killed Scores of Russia Fighters in Syria, Sources Say

U.S. forces killed scores of Russian mercenaries in Syria last week in what may be the deadliest clash between citizens of the former foes since the Cold War, according to one U.S. official and three Russians familiar with the matter.

More than 200 contract soldiers, mostly Russians fighting on behalf of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, died in a failed attack on a base held by U.S. and mainly Kurdish forces in the oil-rich Deir Ezzor region, two of the Russians said. The U.S. official put the death toll at about 100, with 200 to 300 injured.

The Russian assault may have been a rogue operation, underscoring the complexity of a conflict that started as a domestic crackdown only to morph into a proxy war involving Islamic extremists, stateless Kurds and regional powers Iran, Turkey and now Israel. Russia’s military said it had nothing to do with the attack and the U.S. accepted the claim. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis called the whole thing “perplexing,” but provided no further details.

President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, declined to comment on reports of Russian casualties, saying the Kremlin only tracks data on the country’s armed forces. Putin talked with U.S. President Donald Trump by phone Monday, but the military action in Syria wasn’t discussed, he said. “This is a big scandal and a reason for an acute international crisis,” said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat and lawmaker who’s now an independent political analyst. “But Russia will pretend nothing happened.”......

Last week’s offensive began about 8 kilometers (5 miles) east of the Euphrates River de-confliction line late Feb. 7, when pro-Assad forces fired rounds and advanced in a “battalion-sized formation supported by artillery, tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems and mortars,” Colonel Thomas F. Veale, a spokesman for the U.S. military, said in a statement. The U.S., which has advisers stationed at the base alongside Syrian Democratic Forces troops, responded with aircraft and artillery fire. “Coalition officials were in regular communication with Russian counterparts before, during and after the thwarted, unprovoked attack,” Veale said. No fatalities were reported on the coalition side and “enemy vehicles and personnel who turned around and headed back west were not targeted.”

It’s not clear who was paying the Russian contingent, whether it was Russia directly, Syria, Iran or a third party. Reports in Russian media have said Wagner -- a shadowy organization known as Russia’s answer to Blackwater, now called Academi -- was hired by Assad or his allies to guard Syrian energy assets in exchange for oil concessions. “No one wants to start a world war over a volunteer or a mercenary who wasn’t sent by the state and was hit by Americans,” Vitaly Naumkin, a senior adviser to Russia’s government on Syria, said in an interview......

While Russia’s Defense Ministry didn’t mention mercenaries in its statement, it did say 25 “Syrian” fighters were injured, without elaborating. It accused the U.S. of using its “illegal presence” in Syria as an excuse to “seize economic assets,” even as it kept lines of communication with the U.S. open. Assad’s government in Damascus called the U.S. military action “barbaric” and a “war crime.”

The death toll from the skirmish, already about five times more than Russia’s official losses in Syria, is still rising, according to one mercenary commander who said by phone that dozens of his wounded men are still being treated at military hospitals in St. Petersburg and Moscow. Most of those killed and injured were Russian and Ukrainian, many of them veterans of the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine, according to Alexander Ionov, who runs a Kremlin-funded group that fosters ties to separatists and who’s personally fought alongside pro-government forces in Syria.

Grigory Yavlinsky, a longtime Russian opposition politician who helped steer democratic reforms after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, called on the authorities to come clean about what happened. “If there has been mass deaths of Russian citizens in Syria, then the relevant authorities, including the general staff of the Russian armed forces, have a duty to inform the country about this and decide who bears responsibility,” Yavlinsky, who is running against Putin in next month’s election, said on Twitter.......