The problem is that the material in question normally has a unique signature, and can be traced to a particular processing plant.

Willard

I know, which is why I said what I said. If someone, ie the US, is going to incriminate someone else using Isotopes or some other Nuclear material, I was hinting that they have some "hidden away" meaning some that has come from known source that was stolen but can't be traced back to the US - or Israel !!! LOL

Conspiracy theories begin.

Ah yes. That was revealed to us in another Clancy book and movie, wasn't it? So, very probably true. But, when to the nuclear inspectors have the time or cability to analyse samples of nuclear material to determine its origin. Maybe it does simply balance the books.

I think you guys may have lost the plot while I've been away. It's taken me hours to read all the new posts. Can we have a unified judgement on what going to happen? I need to know because I want to make my Christmas plans.

BEagle and SAM, what are your views?

Christmas day

The North Koreans attack the south, dragging in the USA forces
Iran launches a high-speed tank strike into central Iran,which is predominantly Shia and sympathetic to Iran. They keep going into Syria, back the Assad regime, reach the Syrian Coast where they link up with the Russian fleet, who protect their flank from the sea, The Turkish border is condoned with chemical weapons to prevent Nato forces approaching through Kurdistan
Once Syria is secure and the Russians have a safe base, they move to Suez and blockade the north end of the canal. Simultaneously the Iranian fleet, already on exercises blockade the southern end of the Red Sea and close the Straits of Hormuz with mines and missiles
While all this is going on, Iran systematically targets all allied bases in the middle east with rockets - possibly chemical armed - and starts a slow infantry assault into Afghanistan
Pakistan closes its airspace to coaliton forces and seals the two passes.
Russian forces move into Khazakstan in line with mutual aid agreements and close the road north out of Afghanistan. Russia takes another poke at Georgia at the same time, just for fun

Result?
Total closure of oil routes to the west.
Isolation of Israel
An army mired down in Korea, struggling to repel the commie forces
A second army trapped in Afghanistan whose only escape route it to fight to the Pakistani coast and take control of a sea port. Even then, the closure of Suez will limit the available shipping to lift them off
Economic isolation of the Gulf states who will be forced to capitulate to Iran
The big question is Saudi -if the Iranians can create a Shia uprising then its possible the ruling al-Saud family could be overthrown. However thats not certaiin

An option is that the Iranians overthrow the Assad regime and replace it with a puppet government. Same result - Iranian control of the Mediterranean coast

JD.... You've been at my medication!

Tom Clancy needs to watch out as you might be 'out plotting' that man :ok::)

the problem is, with the drawdown of forces in Iraq,and the problems Pakistan has been giving the coalition forces over passage in the last few weeks, its all too believable.
I really do believe that something like this is feasible. Its just a matter of whether they are mad enough.

And as someone said earlier, with the USA tied up with two major shooting wars, you could throw in a forced "reconciliation" between China and Taiwan, coupled with a Chinese move into the Spratleys


and now ... really pushing things to the logical extreme...if Egypt were to fall to an Iranian fundamentalist government....

APG
A whole heap of posters have forgotten to take their medication over the last week:rolleyes:

Re "
BEagle and SAM, what are your views?"

I think Beagle doesn't like it and that the thread should go to Jetblast.:O

The really big question of course is whether a preemptive strike can be made against Iran. The difficulty there is that any attacking aircraft would have to transit Iraq or Syria. Now that the USA has withdrawn from Iraq, that route has become less certain.Syria would have been an option IF the Arab League & Turkey had managed to impose a UN no-fly zone over Syria. However Russia effectively vetoed that idea.
So any attacking aircraft may have to fight their way in, and back out again.

Over Jordan & Saudi is pretty direct - and neither is likely to object. :cool:

There is a big difference between believable, possible and the probability of it happening. Mind you I wonder how many major "issues" have happened in the past because the circumstances where thought unlikely, hence take advantage or complacency or attention else where.

I've been rather overdoing my 'medication' of late.

It's not always the expected that ends up happening. Look back in history and see how many events, wars or ops weren't seen coming. Look through JD's Christmas day scenario and count up how many of the events listed COULD happen (probably not all at once, although I'm not betting).

Back on the meds now, but still overdoing it. Hey it's Christmas!!!

M2

Between you, Jamesdevice, Glojo, Courtney ad one or two others,
I think you could keep quite a few Psychiatrists in work ;)

Have enjoyed the last few days watching some SAM type
humour:O:ok:

That's funny, my Boss recently said something like that too. I'll start to get my sensible hat back on. Didn't mean to upset the locals.

Opinion - Israel became convinced several months ago that the US administration has absolutely no intention of attacking Iran and would make every effort to stop Israel doing so. Hence their recent refusal to agree that they would keep the US informed of their plans.

The recent flurry of statements from Panetta and Dempsey et al are an attempt to convince them otherwise.

But that ship has already sailed........ :hmm:

US military 'ready to engage in a conflict with Iran'

So, maybe our mad rantings weren't so mad after all.

The key to that happening is in the opening paragraph.

...if President Barack Obama were to give the signal.

I sincerely hope that no one from the tabloid press (or worse still Mossad) is reading this thread otherwise they are quite likely to "go to press--"SCOOP/BANG"!!) and ruin everyone's Festive Season you know what they are lik
e
.
.........aaaah

And there's me thinking that you colonial types should be seen and not heard! :rolleyes::ok:

Why drink and drive when we can take pills and flyyyyyyy!!!

take pills and flyyyyyyy!!!
Stimulant Use in Extended Flight Operations

The use of amphetamines in U.S. Air ... [Aviat Space Environ Med. 1995] - PubMed - NCBI

"Of pilots who were surveyed, 65% used amphetamines during the deployment to the SWA AOR and/or during Operation Desert Storm."

Didn't realise it was that common

This is an interesting thread
Does anyone else have any thoughts for what action christmas and new year will bring?

I would think there's going to be a few blokes on this thread who are going to see action, the once or twice year type of action that the missus let's you have that is.:E

Fars News Agency :: Iran to Stage Naval Wargames Saturday

"Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said at a press conference on Thursday that the naval maneuvers dubbed Velayat 90 will start on Saturday and will cover an area stretching from the east of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden.

According to Sayyari, this is the first time that Iran's Navy carries out naval drills in such a vast area.

He added the exercises will manifest Iran's military prowess and defense capabilities in the international waters, convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries, and test the newest military equipment among other objectives of the drills.

Rear Admiral Sayyari said that the newest missile systems and torpedoes will be employed in the maneuvers, adding that the most recent tactics used in subsurface battles will also be demonstrated in the maneuvers.

He also said that Iranian destroyers, missile-launching vessels, logistic vessels, drones and coastal missiles will also be tested."

So how well does that fit the "it all kicks off on xmas day" theory??

Don't forget the Russians entered the Med today

Which translates as:

A desparate attempt to demonstrate an massive military capability, which really isn't that good and to show off how much hardware they've managed to acquire and/or keep alive through dogged determination.

Peace and Friendship? I'm not really sensing that.

Moreover, it is designed to send a clear message to the west that Iran can shut down the Persian Gulf and turn the oil tap off whenever they like.

Peace and Friendship.

P.S. Are there some people missing here?

Yes, I believe there are a few involuntary absentees on this thread
Shame really as its the only topical discussion thread about actual military threats currently running

FARS reran that press release today, with slightly more detail
The key difference is they added:
"The exercises are bound to put Iranian warships close to vessels of the United States Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, which patrols some of the same waters, including the Strait of Hormuz."

Is that a threat? Or a heads up to the local population to expect trouble?
Remember FARS is effectively an agency of the Revolutionary Guards

An open source warning regarding the Iranian exercises:

REPORTS FROM MARITIME FORCES AND COMMERCIAL MARITIME INTERESTS INDICATE CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DISRUPTION TO SHIPPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH FUTURE IRANIAN NAVAL EXERCISES. DURING PREVIOUS EXERCISES IRANIAN MARITIME FORCES CONDUCTED BOARDINGS AND INSPECTIONS OF MERCHANT SHIPS, INCLUDING THOSE FLAGGED TO EUROPEAN NATIONS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT IRAN WILL ATTEMPT TO CONDUCT BOARDINGS AND INSPECTIONS DURING EXERCISES BETWEEN DECEMBER 2011 AND MARCH 2012. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO IRANIAN TERRITORIAL WATERS.

From the US Office of Naval Intelligence ;


http://www.oni.navy.mil/Intelligence...avy_forces.pdf

A report on Iran's Naval forces.

Note, this is a very large pdf. I suggest that you only open this if you want a very detailed report of their capabilities, possible intentions etc.

Makes fascinating reading though.

So, following all the interesting speculation in this thread and the ones on the Next Falklands and the Russian Naval deployment, is a picture emerging? The US are out of Iran, not talking (supposedly) to Israel, Iran about to blockade and harass shipping, Syria attacked with a massive bomb, South American states adding to pressure in the South Atlantic, our forces still embroilled in the sandpit, etc.

Separate threads that all add up to a very complex picture. Our masters are wondering where to look most closely and what to prepare for. They're probably thanking their lucky stars that we just had such a huge boost to befence spending to ensure we have the resources to cope with whatever comes next.

Mr Hammond is talking about getting more for less. So expect less!:ouch:

FB:)

Nah .... they will be far more glad for having the threats of these potential conflicts drawn to their attention with all the open source, unclassified information/intelligence and non-military opinion found here on PPRuNe. Without such sterling work the government, PJHQ, MOD et al couldn't even consider making a decision - I hope you are all remembered when it comes to the next honours list;):E

I very much doubt the government will make a decision, until it's too late (if at all).

Diplomacy = Failed
Sanctions = Failed
Direct military action = Definitely

Obama wont be able to put this off until after the elections IMHO

As today is the nominated date of attack by SAM does anyone have an updated TOT?

as this is the thread which had much of the wild predictive stuff in, this post fits here
You may have thought SAMs predictions were off the wall, take a read of this Russian view.
2012 The Year We Entered the Tunnel - English pravda.ru

Blimey, well done. You managed to find an article on the Internet written by a lunatic: good effort. I'll see if I can dig out the one that detailed how we got captured UFOs from Lyneham to the underground city at Corsham via the secret tunnels. That's also about as relevant.

I can see why Tourist is so exasperated with this place..... :hmm:

Rudloe Manor the "focal point" for UFO reports | Nettleden.com

:8

Ministry of Defence | Freedom of Information | Publication Scheme | Search Publication Scheme | UFO Reports in the UK

.

BEagle

The conspiracy theorists obviously had a field day with that place,
all because it was the central location for collection of UFO sightings !:ugh:

They could be a bit more original.

Timing could prove to be interesting here. The Iranians are said to be "about a year" off from having a nuke up and running. November - (and more importantly, the two months between November and the possible inauguration of a new President) - are also "about a year" away. If Obama does prevaricate - (which, with his record to date, is quite a distinct possibility) - and if he were to lose the election**, the USA could find itself in the unfortunate situation of having to make some very hard decisions re Iran during the changeover of administrations - the equivalent of having to win a Moto GP race while you've still got your training wheels on.

I don't think any of this is lost on the Iranians.


**an outside chance, IMHO, not because Obama doesn't richly deserve to be rolled, but more because of the Republicans' inability to field a credible candidate to oppose him.