Ukraine War Thread Part 2
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Pretty cool capability to have, recovery vehicle. 
General Mud is a major player in Ukraine (depending on the season).
The source on this is Ukrainian, so take with such grains of salt as needed:
General Mud is a major player in Ukraine (depending on the season).
The source on this is Ukrainian, so take with such grains of salt as needed:
Russian forces are actively searching for the deserters in occupied areas of Ukraine, particularly in Luhansk Oblast where the military unit was stationed, but with little success. Commanders of the Russian motorized rifle unit are reportedly justifying the desertion by falsely claiming the Nepalese left due to a supposed earthquake back in their home country.
However, the HUR highlighted that returning to Nepal from occupied Luhansk poses significant challenges for these individuals. Furthermore, upon return, the Nepalese could face legal repercussions in their country for participating in hostilities against Ukraine alongside the Russian army.
The situation has reportedly turned the lure of high salaries into a perilous trap for the Nepalese mercenaries, leaving them without a safe exit strategy.
However, the HUR highlighted that returning to Nepal from occupied Luhansk poses significant challenges for these individuals. Furthermore, upon return, the Nepalese could face legal repercussions in their country for participating in hostilities against Ukraine alongside the Russian army.
The situation has reportedly turned the lure of high salaries into a perilous trap for the Nepalese mercenaries, leaving them without a safe exit strategy.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 1st May 2024 at 16:30.
In other news:
Story by Tetyana Oliynyk, source = Ukrainska Pravda
Story by Tetyana Oliynyk, source = Ukrainska Pravda
A total of 96 combat clashes took place on the front line over the last day. The Russians carried out a missile strike and 29 airstrikes and fired from multiple-launch rocket systems at the positions of Ukrainian forces and populated areas 109 times.
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 30 April
Quote from the General Staff: "In total, Ukraine’s Air Force hit 12 clusters of enemy military personnel. Ukraine’s Rocket Forces and Artillery hit a cluster of hostile military personnel."
Details:
On the Kupiansk front, Ukrainian forces repelled three Russian attacks near Berestove and Kopanky (Kharkiv Oblast).
On the Lyman front, the Russians, supported by aircraft, carried out 16 attacks near Novoiehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske and Serebrianka Forest (Luhansk Oblast) and Terny (Donetsk Oblast).
On the Bakhmut front, Ukrainian defenders repelled 24 attacks near Bilohorivka (Luhansk Oblast) and Verkhnokamianske, Rozdolivka, Spirne, Novyi, Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast), where the Russians, supported by aircraft, tried to improve their tactical position.
On the Avdiivka front, Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian attacks near Arkhanhelske, Keramik, Sokil, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka and Netailove (Donetsk Oblast), where the Russians, supported by aircraft, tried to drive Ukrainian units from their positions.
On the Novopavlivka front, Ukraine’s Defence Forces are continuing to hold back the Russians near the settlements of Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka and Urozhaine (Donetsk Oblast), where the Russians, supported by aircraft, tried to break through Ukrainian defences 10 times.
On the Orikhiv front, the Russians, supported by aircraft, attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders near Staromaiorske (Donetsk Oblast) and Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) two times.
On the Kherson front, the Russians did not give up their attempts to drive Ukrainian units from their positions on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River. Over the past day, they launched two unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian troops' positions near the village of Krynky (Kherson Oblast).
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 30 April
Quote from the General Staff: "In total, Ukraine’s Air Force hit 12 clusters of enemy military personnel. Ukraine’s Rocket Forces and Artillery hit a cluster of hostile military personnel."
Details:
On the Kupiansk front, Ukrainian forces repelled three Russian attacks near Berestove and Kopanky (Kharkiv Oblast).
On the Lyman front, the Russians, supported by aircraft, carried out 16 attacks near Novoiehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske and Serebrianka Forest (Luhansk Oblast) and Terny (Donetsk Oblast).
On the Bakhmut front, Ukrainian defenders repelled 24 attacks near Bilohorivka (Luhansk Oblast) and Verkhnokamianske, Rozdolivka, Spirne, Novyi, Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast), where the Russians, supported by aircraft, tried to improve their tactical position.
On the Avdiivka front, Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian attacks near Arkhanhelske, Keramik, Sokil, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka and Netailove (Donetsk Oblast), where the Russians, supported by aircraft, tried to drive Ukrainian units from their positions.
On the Novopavlivka front, Ukraine’s Defence Forces are continuing to hold back the Russians near the settlements of Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka and Urozhaine (Donetsk Oblast), where the Russians, supported by aircraft, tried to break through Ukrainian defences 10 times.
On the Orikhiv front, the Russians, supported by aircraft, attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders near Staromaiorske (Donetsk Oblast) and Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) two times.
On the Kherson front, the Russians did not give up their attempts to drive Ukrainian units from their positions on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River. Over the past day, they launched two unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian troops' positions near the village of Krynky (Kherson Oblast).
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russians are tranporting something very valuable and going through hoops to get it there.
Remember the Russian tanker that left Baltics with a military escort a week ago? Still escorted in Bay of Biscay but has grown and changed color! (AIS-name is the same, boat is changed).
New VOI
This is interesting…..Gen Skobelev was red, ~13000DWT & had a different superstructure when I saw it depart the Baltic Sea on 23 April (see pic)
@TiaFarris10 shot shows SKR-772 escorting an apparently larger tanker which doesn’t appear, to me, to be Skobelev.
Background here: Obvsiously, the boat did not grow but more likely they did a ship to ship transfer somewhere. More detective work needed. Looking forward to photos from Gibraltar.
Track so far, high risk of being a partly spoofed track. The Bay of Biscay anomaly is suspicious but track needs more detail study to say.
Remember the Russian tanker that left Baltics with a military escort a week ago? Still escorted in Bay of Biscay but has grown and changed color! (AIS-name is the same, boat is changed).
New VOI
This is interesting…..Gen Skobelev was red, ~13000DWT & had a different superstructure when I saw it depart the Baltic Sea on 23 April (see pic)
@TiaFarris10 shot shows SKR-772 escorting an apparently larger tanker which doesn’t appear, to me, to be Skobelev.
Background here: Obvsiously, the boat did not grow but more likely they did a ship to ship transfer somewhere. More detective work needed. Looking forward to photos from Gibraltar.
Track so far, high risk of being a partly spoofed track. The Bay of Biscay anomaly is suspicious but track needs more detail study to say.
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Shades of the Altmark.
Does Turkey reserve the right to search suspicious ships?
Lonewolf 50
"The question is, does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a counter attack?"
Very much doubt it, sadly.
WITH ongoing materiel support from friendly nations, Ukraine is possibly able to bleed Russia to a standstill (re manpower and materiel expenditure) once the Oblasts of Kherson, Zaporozhia, Donetsk and Lugansk are taken.
I am guessing Kharkov as well, as a matter of principle/image, and at whatever cost to Russia.
Thereupon Putin might have a face-saving offramp IF he/they choose to do so;
- "we have achieved a buffer zone to safeguard the Motherland" (they can have it, will all be rubble anyway, too bad about the natural resources for Ukraine but never mind)
- "unilateral ceasefire (see how nice we are?), defensive operations only"
- and whatever other spin items Peskov and Co come up with...
Another Korean scenario quite possible at the end of the day.
But I just cannot see Ukraine running any successful offensives to reclaim territory (on principle and a wasteland at that?).
They just don`t have the numbers compared to the foe.
I really do think the above will be Ukraine`s best medium-term outcome. With them forever referring to the 4/5 regions as "occupied areas". Yes, I have left out Crimea, that is a categoric goner, Russia will insistently maintain that they have merely corrected a 1954 Khruschev error there.
But at least the remaining Ukraine does survive as a nation.
Quite happy to hear more optimistic viewpoints, with rationale.
"The question is, does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a counter attack?"
Very much doubt it, sadly.
WITH ongoing materiel support from friendly nations, Ukraine is possibly able to bleed Russia to a standstill (re manpower and materiel expenditure) once the Oblasts of Kherson, Zaporozhia, Donetsk and Lugansk are taken.
I am guessing Kharkov as well, as a matter of principle/image, and at whatever cost to Russia.
Thereupon Putin might have a face-saving offramp IF he/they choose to do so;
- "we have achieved a buffer zone to safeguard the Motherland" (they can have it, will all be rubble anyway, too bad about the natural resources for Ukraine but never mind)
- "unilateral ceasefire (see how nice we are?), defensive operations only"
- and whatever other spin items Peskov and Co come up with...
Another Korean scenario quite possible at the end of the day.
But I just cannot see Ukraine running any successful offensives to reclaim territory (on principle and a wasteland at that?).
They just don`t have the numbers compared to the foe.
I really do think the above will be Ukraine`s best medium-term outcome. With them forever referring to the 4/5 regions as "occupied areas". Yes, I have left out Crimea, that is a categoric goner, Russia will insistently maintain that they have merely corrected a 1954 Khruschev error there.
But at least the remaining Ukraine does survive as a nation.
Quite happy to hear more optimistic viewpoints, with rationale.
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Lonewolf 50
"The question is, does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a counter attack?"
Very much doubt it, sadly.
WITH ongoing materiel support from friendly nations, Ukraine is possibly able to bleed Russia to a standstill (re manpower and materiel expenditure) once the Oblasts of Kherson, Zaporozhia, Donetsk and Lugansk are taken.
I am guessing Kharkov as well, as a matter of principle/image, and at whatever cost to Russia.
Thereupon Putin might have a face-saving offramp IF he/they choose to do so;
- "we have achieved a buffer zone to safeguard the Motherland" (they can have it, will all be rubble anyway, too bad about the natural resources for Ukraine but never mind)
- "unilateral ceasefire (see how nice we are?), defensive operations only"
- and whatever other spin items Peskov and Co come up with...
Another Korean scenario quite possible at the end of the day.
But I just cannot see Ukraine running any successful offensives to reclaim territory (on principle and a wasteland at that?).
They just don`t have the numbers compared to the foe.
I really do think the above will be Ukraine`s best medium-term outcome. With them forever referring to the 4/5 regions as "occupied areas". Yes, I have left out Crimea, that is a categoric goner, Russia will insistently maintain that they have merely corrected a 1954 Khruschev error there.
But at least the remaining Ukraine does survive as a nation.
Quite happy to hear more optimistic viewpoints, with rationale.
"The question is, does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a counter attack?"
Very much doubt it, sadly.
WITH ongoing materiel support from friendly nations, Ukraine is possibly able to bleed Russia to a standstill (re manpower and materiel expenditure) once the Oblasts of Kherson, Zaporozhia, Donetsk and Lugansk are taken.
I am guessing Kharkov as well, as a matter of principle/image, and at whatever cost to Russia.
Thereupon Putin might have a face-saving offramp IF he/they choose to do so;
- "we have achieved a buffer zone to safeguard the Motherland" (they can have it, will all be rubble anyway, too bad about the natural resources for Ukraine but never mind)
- "unilateral ceasefire (see how nice we are?), defensive operations only"
- and whatever other spin items Peskov and Co come up with...
Another Korean scenario quite possible at the end of the day.
But I just cannot see Ukraine running any successful offensives to reclaim territory (on principle and a wasteland at that?).
They just don`t have the numbers compared to the foe.
I really do think the above will be Ukraine`s best medium-term outcome. With them forever referring to the 4/5 regions as "occupied areas". Yes, I have left out Crimea, that is a categoric goner, Russia will insistently maintain that they have merely corrected a 1954 Khruschev error there.
But at least the remaining Ukraine does survive as a nation.
Quite happy to hear more optimistic viewpoints, with rationale.
Lonewolf 50
"The question is, does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a counter attack?"
Very much doubt it, sadly.
WITH ongoing materiel support from friendly nations, Ukraine is possibly able to bleed Russia to a standstill (re manpower and materiel expenditure) once the Oblasts of Kherson, Zaporozhia, Donetsk and Lugansk are taken.
I am guessing Kharkov as well, as a matter of principle/image, and at whatever cost to Russia.
Thereupon Putin might have a face-saving offramp IF he/they choose to do so;
- "we have achieved a buffer zone to safeguard the Motherland" (they can have it, will all be rubble anyway, too bad about the natural resources for Ukraine but never mind)
- "unilateral ceasefire (see how nice we are?), defensive operations only"
- and whatever other spin items Peskov and Co come up with...
Another Korean scenario quite possible at the end of the day.
But I just cannot see Ukraine running any successful offensives to reclaim territory (on principle and a wasteland at that?).
They just don`t have the numbers compared to the foe.
I really do think the above will be Ukraine`s best medium-term outcome. With them forever referring to the 4/5 regions as "occupied areas". Yes, I have left out Crimea, that is a categoric goner, Russia will insistently maintain that they have merely corrected a 1954 Khruschev error there.
But at least the remaining Ukraine does survive as a nation.
Quite happy to hear more optimistic viewpoints, with rationale.
"The question is, does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a counter attack?"
Very much doubt it, sadly.
WITH ongoing materiel support from friendly nations, Ukraine is possibly able to bleed Russia to a standstill (re manpower and materiel expenditure) once the Oblasts of Kherson, Zaporozhia, Donetsk and Lugansk are taken.
I am guessing Kharkov as well, as a matter of principle/image, and at whatever cost to Russia.
Thereupon Putin might have a face-saving offramp IF he/they choose to do so;
- "we have achieved a buffer zone to safeguard the Motherland" (they can have it, will all be rubble anyway, too bad about the natural resources for Ukraine but never mind)
- "unilateral ceasefire (see how nice we are?), defensive operations only"
- and whatever other spin items Peskov and Co come up with...
Another Korean scenario quite possible at the end of the day.
But I just cannot see Ukraine running any successful offensives to reclaim territory (on principle and a wasteland at that?).
They just don`t have the numbers compared to the foe.
I really do think the above will be Ukraine`s best medium-term outcome. With them forever referring to the 4/5 regions as "occupied areas". Yes, I have left out Crimea, that is a categoric goner, Russia will insistently maintain that they have merely corrected a 1954 Khruschev error there.
But at least the remaining Ukraine does survive as a nation.
Quite happy to hear more optimistic viewpoints, with rationale.
This thesis would require Russia to take about double the Ukrainian territory they currently hold.
Whilst Russia is clearly in the ascendency currently, their current offensive will culminate at some point and then Ukraine will then have an opportunity to hit back.
Don't forget, Russian losses of people and materiel are also enormous, and (likely) in personnel terms a higher % of their population than Ukraine's.
The big binary question is who wins the US Presidential election. If Trump then sadly this will substantially increase the probability of your thesis coming to pass. Despite the recent support package, only a minority of Reps in the House voted for it. But whilst polls put Biden and Trump neck-and-neck, betting markets (historically better predictors of elections than opinion polls) show Trump's win as only slightly above 40% likely.
Time will tell, but clearly uncertainty is high currently. We are in unpredictable times! Europe should thus spend much more on defence - and back Ukraine to the hilt.
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More strikes into Russia overnight targeting power and oil infrastructure.
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Strikes on Odesa, a warehouse was hit amongst other targets.
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A clip showing the amount of Russian dead in one small area of tree line. Viewers discretion is advised. Not really body parts or blood etc, just corpses.
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Hopefully the damage is only located in the roof structure 
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Other than setting light to the fields, does releasing flares at that height actually achieve anything in terms of defence against missile attack?
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