Originally Posted by
konstantin
Lonewolf 50
"The question is, does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a counter attack?"
Very much doubt it, sadly.
WITH ongoing materiel support from friendly nations, Ukraine is possibly able to bleed Russia to a standstill (re manpower and materiel expenditure) once the Oblasts of Kherson, Zaporozhia, Donetsk and Lugansk are taken.
I am guessing Kharkov as well, as a matter of principle/image, and at whatever cost to Russia.
Thereupon Putin might have a face-saving offramp IF he/they choose to do so;
- "we have achieved a buffer zone to safeguard the Motherland" (they can have it, will all be rubble anyway, too bad about the natural resources for Ukraine but never mind)
- "unilateral ceasefire (see how nice we are?), defensive operations only"
- and whatever other spin items Peskov and Co come up with...
Another Korean scenario quite possible at the end of the day.
But I just cannot see Ukraine running any successful offensives to reclaim territory (on principle and a wasteland at that?).
They just don`t have the numbers compared to the foe.
I really do think the above will be Ukraine`s best medium-term outcome. With them forever referring to the 4/5 regions as "occupied areas". Yes, I have left out Crimea, that is a categoric goner, Russia will insistently maintain that they have merely corrected a 1954 Khruschev error there.
But at least the remaining Ukraine does survive as a nation.
Quite happy to hear more optimistic viewpoints, with rationale.
Possible but unlikely.
This thesis would require Russia to take about double the Ukrainian territory they currently hold.
Whilst Russia is clearly in the ascendency currently, their current offensive will culminate at some point and then Ukraine will then have an opportunity to hit back.
Don't forget, Russian losses of people and materiel are also enormous, and (likely) in personnel terms a higher % of their population than Ukraine's.
The big binary question is who wins the US Presidential election. If Trump then sadly this will substantially increase the probability of your thesis coming to pass. Despite the recent support package, only a minority of Reps in the House voted for it. But whilst polls put Biden and Trump neck-and-neck, betting markets (historically better predictors of elections than opinion polls) show Trump's win as only slightly above 40% likely.
Time will tell, but clearly uncertainty is high currently. We are in unpredictable times! Europe should thus spend much more on defence - and back Ukraine to the hilt.