Lonewolf 50
"The question is, does Ukraine have the capacity to mount a counter attack?"
Very much doubt it, sadly.
WITH ongoing materiel support from friendly nations, Ukraine is possibly able to bleed Russia to a standstill (re manpower and materiel expenditure) once the Oblasts of Kherson, Zaporozhia, Donetsk and Lugansk are taken.
I am guessing Kharkov as well, as a matter of principle/image, and at whatever cost to Russia.
Thereupon Putin might have a face-saving offramp IF he/they choose to do so;
- "we have achieved a buffer zone to safeguard the Motherland" (they can have it, will all be rubble anyway, too bad about the natural resources for Ukraine but never mind)
- "unilateral ceasefire (see how nice we are?), defensive operations only"
- and whatever other spin items Peskov and Co come up with...
Another Korean scenario quite possible at the end of the day.
But I just cannot see Ukraine running any successful offensives to reclaim territory (on principle and a wasteland at that?).
They just don`t have the numbers compared to the foe.
I really do think the above will be Ukraine`s best medium-term outcome. With them forever referring to the 4/5 regions as "occupied areas". Yes, I have left out Crimea, that is a categoric goner, Russia will insistently maintain that they have merely corrected a 1954 Khruschev error there.
But at least the remaining Ukraine does survive as a nation.
Quite happy to hear more optimistic viewpoints, with rationale.