Ukraine War Thread Part 2
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From: Europe
Have to say- albeit as someone with no knowledge of the oil-industry - I can't believe that they have destroyed 12% of Russia's refining capacity.in 2 days as Bloomberg claims. Believable for me would be " have hit refineries responsible for 12% of ......" which might then mean destruction of 1-2% ( pure guess ) refining capacity..
This Yahoo news item repeats all the key facts in the Bloomberg ones that are paywalled, and icludes a useful map:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major...075404268.html
The refineries hit recently seem to have typical throughputs of 100,000 - 300,000 barrels per day. So one can get to the 12% number just from forcing a shutdown of three refineries, but the issue is how quick can they do a restart, and how much damage is caused.
One of those attacks seemingly targeted a cracker in the refinery. If they got that (if) and if they penetrated it (if) whilst hot (if) in such a way as to cause a product explosion (if) then that might do long term damage that is not easy to repair. The larger the warheads get, the longer the drone ranges get, the better the targetting knowledge becomes, the more accurate the final strike becomes, the greater the likelihood of doing substantial lasting damage.
This has consequences for civilian fuels use in Russia, military fuels use in Russia, Russian exports of both crude and refined product (in different ways, complex), and Russian economy. Global economy will barely notice it.
They are also going after significant metals production facilities, again striking at particular bits of kit. I expect that other energy/power assets will be on their targetting list.
Cumulatively this will all have an effect. Whether it is sufficient in the current context remains to be seen.
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From: PLanet Earth
I seem to remember rumours of him having been among a group hit by a strike on a command post on crimea about a month ago or two, has he been ever seen since?
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From: UK
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From: Slovakia
Have to say- albeit as someone with no knowledge of the oil-industry - I can't believe that they have destroyed 12% of Russia's refining capacity.in 2 days as Bloomberg claims. Believable for me would be " have hit refineries responsible for 12% of ......" which might then mean destruction of 1-2% ( pure guess ) refining capacity.
Russia had over 40 operational refineries before the war but some of them stopped production due the fact that refined oil products couldn't be exported due the sanctions. On other hand less operational refineries caused outages during harvest in September 2023 and surprisingly Putin forbid export of diesel for quite a long time. Attacks on refineries seem to have visible effects as outages of petrol at fuel stations are widely reported since the beginning of the year and even gasoline export was forbidden. All this cause logistics nightmare, overstretching forces which must protect infrastructure and can't be stationed on the front line, it also hurts the Russia's income. With current trend we may expect that Russia's funds will run out sometimes in the beginning of 2025. We may hope that Putin will try to continue fight but there will be a complete break down at a certain point.
Good analysis by Joe Blogs:
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From: Rhone-Alpes
* Believe there was a supposed appearance just after attack, but lots of speculation it was manipulated images.
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From: Bolton UK
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
Another Russian ship attacked that slipped under the radar.
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukra...710202684.html
The Ukrainian Navy reported on the destruction of the tanker Mekhanik Pogodin, which the Russians converted into a command post, according to the Ukrainian Navy's Facebook page.
"On March 11, 2024, as a result of a successful airstrike by the Ukrainian Air Force in the area of the Kinburn Spit, the tanker under the Russian flag Mekhanik Pogodin, which the Russians used as a command post, was destroyed," the Ukrainian Navy reported.
On May 2, 2018, VEB-Leasing OJSC (St. Petersburg), the owner of the tanker, was included in the sanctions list and arrested. After the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station was blown up in 2023, the tanker was washed ashore in the territory temporarily controlled by the occupiers.
"The tanker Mekhanik Pogodin was arrested and was located in the territory of the Kherson seaport until the summer of 2023. After the Russians blew up the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station, the tanker was washed ashore on the Kinburn Spit, which is temporarily controlled by the Russians," the Ukrainian Navy reported.
The Russians set up an observation post for reconnaissance on the ship. The vessel was used to launch drone strikes on the Kherson region.
"Subsequently, an observation post for reconnaissance and electronic warfare means was deployed on the mentioned vessel. The ship was periodically used as a platform for launching FPV drones to strike the territory of the Kherson region," the Ukrainian Navy reported.
Therefore, the destruction of the Russian tanker Mekhanik Pogodin not only thwarted the invaders in their plans but was also carried out in full compliance with the norms of International Humanitarian Law.
"On March 11, 2024, as a result of a successful airstrike by the Ukrainian Air Force in the area of the Kinburn Spit, the tanker under the Russian flag Mekhanik Pogodin, which the Russians used as a command post, was destroyed," the Ukrainian Navy reported.
On May 2, 2018, VEB-Leasing OJSC (St. Petersburg), the owner of the tanker, was included in the sanctions list and arrested. After the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station was blown up in 2023, the tanker was washed ashore in the territory temporarily controlled by the occupiers.
"The tanker Mekhanik Pogodin was arrested and was located in the territory of the Kherson seaport until the summer of 2023. After the Russians blew up the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station, the tanker was washed ashore on the Kinburn Spit, which is temporarily controlled by the Russians," the Ukrainian Navy reported.
The Russians set up an observation post for reconnaissance on the ship. The vessel was used to launch drone strikes on the Kherson region.
"Subsequently, an observation post for reconnaissance and electronic warfare means was deployed on the mentioned vessel. The ship was periodically used as a platform for launching FPV drones to strike the territory of the Kherson region," the Ukrainian Navy reported.
Therefore, the destruction of the Russian tanker Mekhanik Pogodin not only thwarted the invaders in their plans but was also carried out in full compliance with the norms of International Humanitarian Law.
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
Thread Starter
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
And you thought the Grenfell coating was bad.
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From: Oop Norf
Joined: Mar 2018
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From: Central UK
And you thought the Grenfell coating was bad.
https://twitter.com/UaCoins/status/1768238638909767793
https://twitter.com/UaCoins/status/1768238638909767793
All the yellow bits being projected up in the fire makes me wonder if that isn't a huge pressurised container of something like liquid builder's bodge foam intended to be injected for insulation going up.
Boy, the Ruzzians know how to do fires in style, don't they?
Last edited by meleagertoo; 14th March 2024 at 23:23.
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From: The Alps
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From: Frensham
France 24 News posted this earlier on X (Twitter), after which it was subsequently pulled.
"French regiments are reportedly on their way to Romania, in preparation for deployment in Ukraine against the Russian army, particularly in Odessa. Among them, the 2nd Foreign Infantry Regiment of Nîmes is mentioned."
Macron appears to be in trouble:
"French regiments are reportedly on their way to Romania, in preparation for deployment in Ukraine against the Russian army, particularly in Odessa. Among them, the 2nd Foreign Infantry Regiment of Nîmes is mentioned."
Macron appears to be in trouble:
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From: Frensham
Macron warns Europe's security 'at stake' after uproar over Ukraine ground troops comment
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday that the Europe's security was "at stake" in Ukraine, warning that a Russian victory against Kyiv "would reduce Europe's credibility to zero".
"The French president also said Thursday that his country stood ready to ensure that Russia does not win the war in Ukraine, urging allies not to impose limits on assistance.
"If the situation should deteriorate, we would be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war," Macron said during an interview on French TV, warning that anybody advocating "limits" on aid to Ukraine "chooses defeat".
He said it was important for Europe not to draw red lines, which would signal weakness to the Kremlin and encourage it topush on with its invasion of Ukraine. He refused to give detail on what a deployment to Ukraine might look like.
"I have reasons not to be precise," he said. "I'm not going to give (Putin) visibility."
Macron said France would never initiate an offensive against Russia, and that Paris was not at war with Moscow, despite the fact that Russia had launched aggressive attacks against French interests in and outside France.
"Russia is an adversary," he said, declining to call it an enemy.
He also said he hoped that the time would come one day to negotiate peace with a Russian president "whoever it might be", for the first envisaging the possibility of Putin no longer being in charge in Russia.
Polarised politics
In late February, Macron caused an uproar by refusing to rule out the dispatch of Western ground troops to Ukraine. French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu later said that while the deployment of Western combat troops to fight in Ukraine was not on the table, a greater military presence could include mine clearance and training Ukrainian soldiers on Ukrainian soil.
In France's polarised political landscape, Russia's war against Ukraine has emerged as a major hot-button topic.
The French president has been seeking to hammer home the importance of greater support for Ukraine while trying to cast the country’s far-right Rassemblement National as an ally of the Kremlin. Members of both right-wing and left-wing opposition parties have accused the president of using the conflict to boost his centrist coalition's standing ahead of the European elections in June.
The European elections are seen as a key milestone ahead of France's next presidential election in 2027, when Le Pen is expected to mount a fourth bid for the top job and Macron cannot stand again due to term limits.
Macron planned to meet on Friday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Berlin in a summit meant to show unity."
https://www.france24.com/en/france/2..._medium=social
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday that the Europe's security was "at stake" in Ukraine, warning that a Russian victory against Kyiv "would reduce Europe's credibility to zero".
"The French president also said Thursday that his country stood ready to ensure that Russia does not win the war in Ukraine, urging allies not to impose limits on assistance.
"If the situation should deteriorate, we would be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war," Macron said during an interview on French TV, warning that anybody advocating "limits" on aid to Ukraine "chooses defeat".
He said it was important for Europe not to draw red lines, which would signal weakness to the Kremlin and encourage it topush on with its invasion of Ukraine. He refused to give detail on what a deployment to Ukraine might look like.
"I have reasons not to be precise," he said. "I'm not going to give (Putin) visibility."
Macron said France would never initiate an offensive against Russia, and that Paris was not at war with Moscow, despite the fact that Russia had launched aggressive attacks against French interests in and outside France.
"Russia is an adversary," he said, declining to call it an enemy.
He also said he hoped that the time would come one day to negotiate peace with a Russian president "whoever it might be", for the first envisaging the possibility of Putin no longer being in charge in Russia.
Polarised politics
In late February, Macron caused an uproar by refusing to rule out the dispatch of Western ground troops to Ukraine. French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu later said that while the deployment of Western combat troops to fight in Ukraine was not on the table, a greater military presence could include mine clearance and training Ukrainian soldiers on Ukrainian soil.
In France's polarised political landscape, Russia's war against Ukraine has emerged as a major hot-button topic.
The French president has been seeking to hammer home the importance of greater support for Ukraine while trying to cast the country’s far-right Rassemblement National as an ally of the Kremlin. Members of both right-wing and left-wing opposition parties have accused the president of using the conflict to boost his centrist coalition's standing ahead of the European elections in June.
The European elections are seen as a key milestone ahead of France's next presidential election in 2027, when Le Pen is expected to mount a fourth bid for the top job and Macron cannot stand again due to term limits.
Macron planned to meet on Friday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Berlin in a summit meant to show unity."
https://www.france24.com/en/france/2..._medium=social
Tabs please!
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From: Biffins Bridge
Attacks on refineries seem to have visible effects as outages of petrol at fuel stations are widely reported since the beginning of the year and even gasoline export was forbidden. All this cause logistics nightmare, overstretching forces which must protect infrastructure and can't be stationed on the front line, it also hurts the Russia's income.