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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 16th May 2023, 13:10
  #741 (permalink)  
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Saved by a loaf of bread!

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Old 16th May 2023, 13:16
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French SCALP-EG* cruise-missiles promised

From the DT

France will follow Britain’s lead by supplying Ukraine with longer-range missiles days after the UK’s Storm Shadow munitions were used to devastating effect against Russian forces behind the front line. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has confirmed: “We have decided to send over and above that, new munitions, new missiles that have a range that allows Ukraine to resist and to lead this (upcoming) counteroffensive.”

No numbers, no time-line, however if they give a decent number, that should really free-up the Ukrainians in their targeting possibilities

Zelensky has had a very productive visit to D/F/GB. Maybe the Pope gave him a holy bone to wish him God Speed to his just and virtuous enterprise

*SCALP-EG = French-built Storm Shadow

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 16th May 2023 at 13:38.
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Old 16th May 2023, 14:10
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Saved by a loaf of bread!
We can debate at length whether Storm Shadow has been deployed yet, but most of us can identify the supplier of a bulletproof cheese-roll; Slava NAAFI!
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Old 16th May 2023, 14:37
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The mental image of the Pope giving Zelensky a Holy Bone is frankly more than I can stomach.
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Old 16th May 2023, 15:05
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
The mental image of the Pope giving Zelensky a Holy Bone is frankly more than I can stomach.
Was I meant to think lewd thoughts?....... now I cannot unthink them.

Fortunately I am not RC, or excommunication would be the mildest punishment on offer.

Back to the Special Military Operation.
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Old 16th May 2023, 15:08
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
Whether that event is to be welcomed or not rather depends on what comes next. When Lukashenko 'retires' or dies where does the country go? Is there a nominated successor with a strong enough powerbase to maintain dictatorial control? Does it quietly accept direct rule from Moscow with any troublemakers dealt with in the customary fashion? Or could public opposition be a trigger for serious unrest with the people looking enviously westward? With Putin's authority seemingly draining away over the Ukraine debacle none of this seems clear at all.
I refer you to Russia, Ukraine, and possible unpleasantries for the view from Moscow as to the next steps in the formation of the Union State.

IM
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Old 16th May 2023, 15:14
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I do wonder if they have asked the Ukrainian Embassy to remove their flag as well? Surely an Embassy grounds are the responsibilty of the country and not China, dictating what can and can't be done in those grounds is getting into dodgy territory.



What I found

The best place to find answers to the above stories, and the question overall, is with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations 1961.

Within this convention, Articles 21-25 have to do with embassies, though more specifically diplomatic missions as a whole.

Article 21
1. The receiving State shall either facilitate the acquisition on its territory, in accordance with its laws, by the sending State of premises necessary for its mission or assist the latter in obtaining accommodation in some other way.
2. It shall also, where necessary, assist missions in obtaining suitable accommodation for their members.

Article 22
1. The premises of the mission shall be inviolable. The agents of the receiving State may not enter them, except with the consent of the head of the mission.

2. The receiving State is under a special duty to take all appropriate steps to protect the premises of the mission against any intrusion or damage and to prevent any disturbance of the peace of the mission or impairment of its dignity.

3. The premises of the mission, their furnishings and other property thereon and the means of transport of the mission shall be immune from search, requisition, attachment or execution.

Article 23
1. The sending State and the head of the mission shall be exempt from all national, regional or municipal dues and taxes in respect of the premises of the mission, whether owned or leased, other than such as represent payment for specific services rendered.

2. The exemption from taxation referred to in this article shall not apply to such dues and taxes payable under the law of the receiving State by persons contracting with the sending State or the head of the mission.

Article 24
The archives and documents of the mission shall be inviolable at any time and wherever they may be.

Article 25
The receiving State shall accord full facilities for the performance of the functions of the mission.

Above, you will notice I bolded a few phrases, all in Article 22, which have to do with mission sovereignty. Let’s break it down:

1. The premises of a mission shall be inviolable

Nobody can enter the mission without permission- this includes the host country

2. The receiving State is under a special duty to take all appropriate steps to protect the premises of the mission against any intrusion or damage and to prevent any disturbance of the peace of the mission or impairment of its dignity

If you visit the U.S. Embassy, especially in more dangerous parts of the world, you will see the mission’s exterior guarded by local nationals. The inside will have a marine detachment, but the outside will be local police or military.

In my experience, the words “protect… mission against any damage and to prevent any disturbance of peace… or impairment of its dignity” have been interpreted differently depending on the situation.
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Old 16th May 2023, 15:58
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Originally Posted by IlyaMuromets
I refer you to Russia, Ukraine, and possible unpleasantries for the view from Moscow as to the next steps in the formation of the Union State. IM
Repeating what Moscow says it wants to happen isn't really an answer. If the last 15 months show anything it is that Moscow does not necessarily get what it wants, and its capacity for forcing others to do its bidding is steadily diminishing.
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Old 16th May 2023, 19:16
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
Repeating what Moscow says it wants to happen isn't really an answer. If the last 15 months show anything it is that Moscow does not necessarily get what it wants, and its capacity for forcing others to do its bidding is steadily diminishing.
Fair points indeed, but I believe Belarus may prove to be the exception. And I am convinced that Moscow is trying to make sure of that. The Union State idea has been knocking around for a long long time, and a change at the top in Minsk might be just the catalyst needed to make it happen. And an ideal success story for VVP at which point he can bow out gracefully having anointed his successor. Much as BNE did at the turn of the Millenium.

But it's all just theatre.

IM
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Old 16th May 2023, 20:26
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Originally Posted by IlyaMuromets
Fair points indeed, but I believe Belarus may prove to be the exception. And I am convinced that Moscow is trying to make sure of that. The Union State idea has been knocking around for a long long time, and a change at the top in Minsk might be just the catalyst needed to make it happen. And an ideal success story for VVP at which point he can bow out gracefully having anointed his successor. Much as BNE did at the turn of the Millenium. But it's all just theatre. IM
I guess Putin thought he could achieve something similar in Ukraine, never dreaming that there would be such a fierce reaction that it now threatens to destroy everything he wanted to achieve. Time will tell what happens in Belarus. All very interesting, but maybe enough speculation and time to get back to what's actually happening.
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Old 16th May 2023, 21:00
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Second recorded loss of a Spartan, surprisingly there are so few considering the numbers and their use at the front.

I have only put the link in quotes as there are sadly really badly burnt bodies in the rear, as usual BEWARE.

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Old 16th May 2023, 21:01
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Originally Posted by IlyaMuromets
Fair points indeed, but I believe Belarus may prove to be the exception. And I am convinced that Moscow is trying to make sure of that. The Union State idea has been knocking around for a long long time, and a change at the top in Minsk might be just the catalyst needed to make it happen. And an ideal success story for VVP at which point he can bow out gracefully having anointed his successor. Much as BNE did at the turn of the Millenium.

But it's all just theatre.

IM
Why do you believe that ? It is not as if Belarus is the biggest prize at the top of the pyramid , and if it falls, everything else falls after.
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Old 16th May 2023, 21:32
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I doubt that Belarus collapsing would have any significant impact. That's just going on recent history. My personal view is that we in the west put too much store in people wanting democracy. Many former Soviet states struggled to become democratic (not least Ukraine). Easy to suppose that opposition to a government equals a desire to become a true democracy. Many Russians and Belorussians may oppose their leader but that doesn't mean they want democracy.

The same was true in the Warsaw pact states. I know this first hand as my wife is East German. If you and your parents have grown up not knowing what democracy is then it may not be something seen to be of value. Many Russians I've known seemed content with their lot. The impression I have always had is that they value strength and power in a leader far more than democracy.
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Old 16th May 2023, 21:46
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
Many Russians I've known seemed content with their lot. The impression I have always had is that they value strength and power in a leader far more than democracy.
That is very much my experience in dealing with Russians who have immigrated. And those are the ones who have left ! I would add Russians in the last century have gone through a level of deprevation that no one in the west can relate to. They have grown up with stories from the grandparents etc. With that perspective they see things as not that bad and it has been many times worse.

Last edited by 20driver; 17th May 2023 at 01:29. Reason: spelling
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Old 16th May 2023, 22:19
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Russia may indeed have damaged a Patriot system.

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Old 16th May 2023, 23:54
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Originally Posted by IlyaMuromets
Fair points indeed, but I believe Belarus may prove to be the exception. And I am convinced that Moscow is trying to make sure of that. The Union State idea has been knocking around for a long long time, and a change at the top in Minsk might be just the catalyst needed to make it happen. And an ideal success story for VVP at which point he can bow out gracefully having anointed his successor. Much as BNE did at the turn of the Millenium. IM
The was a change in leadership, she was not permitted to take over rightful administration due to the actions of the current dictator, (that's what dictators tend to do), and she received an EU award for her efforts. If the current dictator falls over, she is the legitimate govt of Belarus.

The unlawful leader of Belarus is the one that permitted the criminal actions of the incumbent of the Kremlin to be carried out from the territory of Belarus. When this thing gets to the wash up stage, Belarus owes Ukraine for the actions of their dictator. The tolerance of Ukraine towards the antics of the Belarus dictator is amazing, they had every right under international law to respond to the aggression being permitted by Belarus, and chose not to.

On other matters, while in the old days we used to expend a great deal of effort to get BDA and intel, today, we just have to go to social media... cuts both ways, the war crimes get covered, and may never see closure, and we give the attacker info on the effectiveness of their tactics... all in all, not a good deal for the ham in the sandwich.

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Old 17th May 2023, 07:50
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
I doubt that Belarus collapsing would have any significant impact. That's just going on recent history. My personal view is that we in the west put too much store in people wanting democracy. Many former Soviet states struggled to become democratic (not least Ukraine). Easy to suppose that opposition to a government equals a desire to become a true democracy. Many Russians and Belorussians may oppose their leader but that doesn't mean they want democracy.
The same was true in the Warsaw pact states. I know this first hand as my wife is East German. If you and your parents have grown up not knowing what democracy is then it may not be something seen to be of value. Many Russians I've known seemed content with their lot. The impression I have always had is that they value strength and power in a leader far more than democracy.
Who cares whether they want democracy or not? They can carry on as they are forever for all I care, but if the only way they can feel good about themselves is through threatening or attacking other nations they can't expect to be liked, admired or welcomed. If that means them living in an isolation cage of their own making then so be it. Ironically this latest adventure by Putin has exposed Russia not to be strong and powerful at all, but weak, stupid and corrupt. Putin himself can hardly be described as a Statesman any more. He once strutted around at international conferences playing the big I Am, but he and his cronies now risk arrest for war crimes if they travel outside Russia. Some strength. Some power.
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Old 17th May 2023, 08:58
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He also goes on about nuking England again and feeling sorry for Scotland - but he doesn’t worry about radiation because of his age…

Propagandists on Vladimir Solovyov's show bemoaned Russia's internal divisions and the lack of young people, which consequently led to older people serving on the frontlines. Solovyov claimed that Russians in their 60s are in tremendous physical shape.

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Old 17th May 2023, 09:15
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Eating their own is how the collapse starts…




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Old 17th May 2023, 09:24
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These people want putting up against a wall... or jailing for a very long time then expelling from the country.

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