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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 2nd November 2023 | 10:35
  #6261 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
Originally Posted by ORAC
Nutloose, see #6258…
Yes I have seen it, but have added more to it, unfortunately if you are not registered you cannot stray off the link or see more than one or two of the first posts.

BTW you often repeat some of my posts but I don't bother letting you know, it happens

Edit:
Just checked ORAC, all it shows on your link when offline on Twitter, is the initial post about the flights and no follow up posts, hence why I post several links to include the details.... We both are learning from this


..

Last edited by NutLoose; 2nd November 2023 at 12:52.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 12:40
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ORAC and NutLoose rock!
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 12:52
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Originally Posted by ORAC
Don’t think tanks are jamming GPS as they are moving targets. - these are C-UAS jammers in the frequency range from 900-2,000MHz

https://www.unmannedairspace.info/co...rs-in-ukraine/

How long until the Ukies go and buy some Arduino's and add a home-on-jam functionality? I concur that the rather impolite additions to their sun decks on the Russian Webber BBQs are for disruption of command links, not the GPS signal, doing the GPS signal would be of some merit to standoff FOP drones that are providing real-time target identification and correction info to the arty, but the command and video links are the most value.

On Königsburg sending takeout to the front, I guess they don't get much of a vote on the 6th-floor occupant of the dark tower. They would do better to practice taking out the IL76s prior to their landings... return flights later will need refrigeration.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 12:58
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
From



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Old 2nd November 2023 | 13:10
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From: Peripatetic
https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...ne-in-ukraine/

Are the once-vaunted Bayraktar drones losing their shine in Ukraine?

BRNO, Czech Republic — The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones, which reportedly assisted Ukraine in military successes earlier in the war, are now of limited utility amid Russian forces bolstering their air defenses, according to a Ukrainian military official.

The assessment by Col. Volodymyr Valiukh, a commander in Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, comes as unmanned aerial vehicles of all sizes and flavors continue to play a key role in Ukraine’s defense calculus. But new tactical constraints have come into play, he said.

In the early weeks of the Russian invasion, the drone often singled out in news headlines was the TB2, produced by Turkish manufacturer Baykar. Among the hits logged by Ukrainian TB2s are five tanks, six towed artillery pieces, six naval ships, two logistics trains, two multiple rocket launchers, two anti-aircraft guns and over a dozen surface-to-air missiles, according to the Dutch open-source intelligence website Oryx.

However, over the course of the last year, several reports noted that the drones seemed to have disappeared from available footage of battlefield action and that their use had become more limited in the face of more sophisticated Russian air defenses.

“For the TB2, I don’t want to use the word useless, but it is hard to find situations where to use them,” Valiukh said at the GSOF Symposium here on Oct. 26th….
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 13:11
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
Smoke on go.. they have arrested the guy on the ship that filmed the smoke on the Kerch bridge the other day.

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Old 2nd November 2023 | 14:21
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From: Glorious Devon
Originally Posted by NutLoose
Smoke on go.. they have arrested the guy on the ship that filmed the smoke on the Kerch bridge the other day.



https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1720023378638029210
What is his offence?
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 14:29
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
What is his offence?
I don't think you need to do anything wrong to get arrested in Russia
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 14:41
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
They might start with Spying, it is probably also illegal to photograph military installations too, as they give valuable information away to the enemy such as the location on the bridge of their smoke equipment, rather like that Crimean holiday maker did when showing the S300 / 400 and radar installation locations in the background of his holiday snaps.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 15:29
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/war-russia...053755023.html

General Zaluzhny said the introduction of modern sensors had made it virtually impossible for his or his enemy’s forces to advance without being detected.

This was best demonstrated when the general visited the front line in Avdiivka, in the east, where Russia recently advanced hundreds of metres by plunging two new armies into the battle there.

“On our monitor screens when I was there we saw 140 Russian machines ablaze – destroyed within four hours of coming within firing range of our artillery,” he said.

Russian forces lucky enough to escape the artillery barrage were hunted down by first-person-view drones as they fled.

Ukrainian forces suffered similar results on attempted advances, General Zaluzhny added.

General Zaluzhny said time had expired on the possibility of F-16 fighter jets, which Kyiv has been repeatedly calling for, becoming a game-changing weapon for his forces.

The American-made jets are expected to arrive in Ukraine next year, with some of the country’s pilots training on them in Romania.

The general said Russian air defences had improved, making the aircrafts less effective.

An experimental version of Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile system that can reach the skies beyond the city of Dnipro, some 60 miles from the front line, he warned.
Ukraine’s army should have been able to push back at a pace of 18 miles a day as it breached Russian defensive lines, the general said.

“If you look at Nato’s text books and at the maths which we did [in planning the counter-offensive], four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” Gen Zaluzhny told the magazine.

When his troops got nowhere, he wondered if it was his commanders, so he changed them. They still had no luck.

He said he only got an insight when he reread a book published in 1941 by a Soviet major-general, who analysed the battles of the First World War. It was called “Breaching Fortified Defence Lines”.

He said: “And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”

It is estimated that while up to 70,000 Ukrainians have been killed and 100-120,000 injured, Russia’s casualties stand at an estimated 120,000 deaths.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 15:48
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That ratio does not bode well for Ukraine's chances.
It is estimated that while up to 70,000 Ukrainians have been killed and 100-120,000 injured, Russia’s casualties stand at an estimated 120,000 deaths.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 16:54
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
That ratio does not bode well for Ukraine's chances.
The thing that raised my interest was a couple of months ago LW was when Zelensky asked Europe to return those of eligible age for service that had fled the country when it all started. That I thought indicated a shortage.

The Time article is interesting reading.

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-vol...sky-interview/
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 17:32
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From: Anderlecht
If it is a war of attrition the Russians will win it. See my post in the Jetblast thread.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 18:40
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Originally Posted by Avman
If it is a war of attrition the Russians will win it. See my post in the Jetblast thread.
Sadly yes. Putin has gone all in and the asymmetry of population size and relative economic strength gives the advantage to Russia. Western timidity in providing the game changing weapons systems have closed the window where Ukrainian forces could have broken through before the Russians got fully dug in.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 19:11
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Grim realities. Thought so earlier. Time and casualty ratio are not on Ukraineīs side. For the ordinary (big city) Russian life hasnīt changed that much the last 20 months. And it looks like it wonīt change to the worse any time soon.

The question is how to defeat Russian quantity with quality. A quality Russia canīt easily emulate or defeat.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 20:08
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From: Baston
Originally Posted by wondering
Grim realities. Thought so earlier. Time and casualty ratio are not on Ukraineīs side. For the ordinary (big city) Russian life hasnīt changed that much the last 20 months. And it looks like it wonīt change to the worse any time soon.

The question is how to defeat Russian quantity with quality. A quality Russia canīt easily emulate or defeat.
Maybe. But what would "winning" be like for each side considered separately? This is a vastly complicated subject, but I believe the protagonists and their backers need to spend a while asking the question. We are where we are, but as the old joke says "I wouldn't start from here!"
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 20:46
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From: Glorious Devon
Originally Posted by langleybaston
Maybe. But what would "winning" be like for each side considered separately? This is a vastly complicated subject, but I believe the protagonists and their backers need to spend a while asking the question. We are where we are, but as the old joke says "I wouldn't start from here!"
First rule of warfare, work out your end state, otherwise how will you know if you have won or lost, let alone what you were fighting for.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 21:06
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
First rule of warfare, work out your end state, otherwise how will you know if you have won or lost, let alone what you were fighting for.
Another smug platitude. Ukraine didn't choose to be at war, it was invaded.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 21:20
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From: Glorious Devon
Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
Another smug platitude. Ukraine didn't choose to be at war, it was invaded.
Most wars start that way, It makes no difference to the principles of warfare.
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Old 2nd November 2023 | 21:37
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From: Over the rainbow
Wars are not won merely survived.
If Putin `wins` the bigger question is what then for NATO? If the West does no intervene then we truly have lost.
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