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Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

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Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

Old 31st Aug 2021, 17:38
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Happy with immobilising Military kit, less impressed by vandalising Civil facilities. If that is accurate info, of course.
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Old 31st Aug 2021, 17:40
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As previous mentioned, Afghanistan is broke and, without weekly flights from the USA literally bringing in C-17 loads of dollars, the banks and ATMs are empty - signalling a decent to bartering and hyperinflation within days.

The country’s main legal export is carpets, their main illegal export is opium - which the Taliban have just prohibited. Good luck with that.

On the bright side they have b*goer all national debt (only just over $1b in total), on the down side it may be hard to get anyone to lend to them on Sharia interest free terms…..

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...down-1.4661232

‘No money in Kabul’: Afghanistan confronts economic meltdown


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Old 31st Aug 2021, 17:51
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“As ye sow, so shall ye reap.”

I do wonder what the Taliban’s long-term plan is for this chaotic country, and how they expect it to function. Just imposing strict Sharia law doesn’t resolve any practical problems. However, first they have to resolve the inevitable conflict with IS-K and assorted traditional regional warlords.

It would be ‘nice’ to see the rest of the world just letting them get on with it for a couple of years before interfering, and then see where they are. Sadly, too many Regional actors are likely to poke their fingers into the pie.
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Old 31st Aug 2021, 18:12
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The entrances to the terminal are reported to be littered with discarded cartridge cases, somehow I can’t see that being the way US forces would have disabled systems - they would have been much more methodical, and of course that quantity of gunfire would have been reported.

There were reports of heavy gunfire - but after the last flights had departed.

In the meantime the US forces are reported to have taken out the aircraft on the ground by shooting out their windows, windscreens and tyres as well as vital engine and hydraulic systems. The last two aren’t obvious in the photos now available, the former are….










https://www.nbcnews.com/video/abando...t-119858245948
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Old 31st Aug 2021, 18:30
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I guess the question is how much of the kit the new Govt actually needs - it didn't do their predecessors a lot of good
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Old 31st Aug 2021, 18:33
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Originally Posted by MPN11 View Post
“As ye sow, so shall ye reap.”

I do wonder what the Taliban’s long-term plan is for this chaotic country, and how they expect it to function. Just imposing strict Sharia law doesn’t resolve any practical problems. However, first they have to resolve the inevitable conflict with IS-K and assorted traditional regional warlords.

It would be ‘nice’ to see the rest of the world just letting them get on with it for a couple of years before interfering, and then see where they are. Sadly, too many Regional actors are likely to poke their fingers into the pie.
It is almost certainly descending into a multi-faction civil war, with an accompanying humanitarian crisis. Question is, do our politicians have the courage to resist the siren voices and just stay out of it.
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Old 31st Aug 2021, 18:36
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Normally 3-5 years before the folks in the hills reckon they're not getting a fair share and take arms against Kabul and whoever is in charge at the time.
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Old 31st Aug 2021, 19:19
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown View Post
It is almost certainly descending into a multi-faction civil war, with an accompanying humanitarian crisis. Question is, do our politicians have the courage to resist the siren voices and just stay out of it.
“Our politicians” may have enough to deal with (C-19, Brexit, Climate, Economic Recovery) but I’m quite sure that Pakistan, Russia, China and Iran will be seeking to leverage their particular/peculiar interests … that will have little or nothing to do with humanitarian considerations.
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Old 31st Aug 2021, 22:19
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Nearly 90 retired generals and admirals call on Lloyd Austin and Mark Milley to resig

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...edgdhp&pc=U531

Nearly 90 retired generals and admirals have called on Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley to resign after overseeing the debacle that was President Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The letter,
by the group Flag Officers 4 America, states that “the hasty retreat has left an unknown number of Americans stranded in dangerous areas controlled by a brutal enemy.” The group’s letter notes that Austin and Milley “were the top two military officials in a position to recommend against the dangerous withdrawal,” and that even if they did all they could to prevent Biden from going forward with it, they should still resign out of conscience.

Two weeks ago, Austin said that the Defense Department would move everyone we possibly can out of Afghanistan “until the clock runs out or we run out of capability.” This was not such a hard promise to keep, yet it has already been broken even though the clock has not run out. Moreover, the greatest military in the world should not “run out of capability” at all when it comes helping Americans stranded in a country controlled by the Taliban.

Ultimately, anywhere from 100 to 200 Americans who wanted to leave the country were stranded by the Biden administration, by its own numbers. Austin also confirmed that the Taliban was preventing some Americans from getting to the airport.

Milley has apparently spent more time studying “white rage” than he has spent on Afghanistan. Like Biden, he contended that the Taliban’s takeover was unexpected. He also, like Biden, blamed the situation on the Afghan army, which has taken more casualties causalities fighting the Taliban in 2021 alone than the U.S. has taken since the war began. This despite the fact that the Biden administration pulled their air support and the contractors who serviced the Afghan air force.

Aside from Biden himself, Austin and Milley bear the most responsibility for the botched withdrawal. They either failed to understand what was happening in Afghanistan or they failed to convince Biden to see it. Either way, they failed. There is no way either of them should continue in this administration.

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Old 31st Aug 2021, 23:30
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Originally Posted by havoc View Post
Aside from Biden himself, Austin and Milley bear the most responsibility for the botched withdrawal. They either failed to understand what was happening in Afghanistan or they failed to convince Biden to see it. Either way, they failed.
Just imagine for a second that Austin and Milley both understood what was happening in Afghanistan, and convinced Biden to see it. Why would he have done anything different? The speed of the Afghan government's collapse was the clearest possible illustration of the futility of the US strategy and vindicated Biden's decision at a stroke.

Last edited by Easy Street; 31st Aug 2021 at 23:44.
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Old 31st Aug 2021, 23:43
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Glad to see all those retired senior officers saying that the USA will be seen as an unreliable partner in any multinational action, something I said but was derided for on here.

so 90 retired Generals and Admirals plus 1 Nutloose.
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Old 31st Aug 2021, 23:58
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Glad to see all those retired senior officers saying that the USA will be seen as an unreliable partner in any multinational action, something I said but was derided for on here.

so 90 retired Generals and Admirals plus 1 Nutloose.
Doesn't mean they're right. In fact, generals and admirals have been pretty damned wrong about a lot of things these past 20 years. Only two metrics count in the measurement of perceived US reliability: the defence strategies and budgets of its overseas partners and allies.
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Old 1st Sep 2021, 00:13
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Originally Posted by Easy Street View Post
Just imagine for a second that Austin and Milley both understood what was happening in Afghanistan, and convinced Biden to see it. Why would he have done anything different? The speed of the Afghan government's collapse was the clearest possible illustration of the futility of the US strategy and vindicated Biden's decision at a stroke.
Why was the collapse such a surprise you wonder?

Why did our Intelligence Services and Military Leadership not see this coming?

Could it be the Senior Commanders believed their own ..... errrrrrr.....propaganda? Bullshit is the word I was going to use but as it is acceptable in my Lounge....I thought it might not conform to commonly held Mess Standards.

We announce a pull out and slink off from Bagram in the middle of the night without telling.our Afghan Allies.....you reckon that might. have signaled something to them about how this was going to play out in the end?

If we could not play straight with them on that.....what else would. we not play straight with them.

I remember when the American Congress cut off support to t he Vietnamese who were engaged in fierce combat with their northern brothers and how that all turned out.

You reckon the Afghans may have read some books about that and saw what might happen to them....and Bagram proved it was happening to them.
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Old 1st Sep 2021, 00:35
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I thought the CIA and other agencies did see it coming.
Weren't Biden et al warned some time ago that the ANA could capitulate in weeks, even days, but ignored the advice?
Noting it's the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...liban-takeover

Both the Trump and Biden administrations were warned by US intelligence that the Afghan army’s resistance to the Taliban could collapse “within days” after an over-hasty withdrawal, according to a former CIA counter-terrorism chief.

Call me naïve - but I tend to believe the spooks here.
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Old 1st Sep 2021, 00:41
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One thing that I would like to see is Biden stop slagging of the Afghan forces sayin* they wouldn’t fight, 70,000 dead isn’t won’t fight and their airforce were strangled due to lack of munitions, see

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/afg...apse-1.6151739

Even though some of them trained in the United States, none of the pilots expressed interest in immigrating there after U.S. President Joe Biden claimed that "the Afghan military gave up, sometimes without trying to fight."

Out of ammo

It's hard to fight when you have no ammunition. All three pilots said their stock of missiles and other munitions ran out weeks ago and they had been reduced to flying intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance (ISR) missions, watching in horror from the air as the Taliban advanced.

One pilot, who also flew the light AC-208, said that as the end approached and the Taliban prepared to storm the airport, he and his comrades had to make a choice: wait to be captured and die a futile, meaningless death, or flee in hopes of surviving and eventually seeing their families.
There was bitterness in the voice of a third pilot who spoke to CBC News. He said they were helpless in the final days of the fight, as the Taliban encircled Kabul and moved in to finish off the western-backed government.

"We didn't have any chance to fight with them because there was no rockets," said the pilot, who flew MD 530 Defender helicopter gunship.
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Old 1st Sep 2021, 01:22
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Originally Posted by tartare View Post
I thought the CIA and other agencies did see it coming.
Weren't Biden et al warned some time ago that the ANA could capitulate in weeks, even days, but ignored the advice?
Noting it's the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...liban-takeover

Both the Trump and Biden administrations were warned by US intelligence that the Afghan army’s resistance to the Taliban could collapse “within days” after an over-hasty withdrawal, according to a former CIA counter-terrorism chief.

Call me naïve - but I tend to believe the spooks here.

Here is a quote from the transcript of President Biden's speech today:
In April, I made a decision to end this war. As part of that decision, we set the date of August 31 for American troops to withdraw. The assumption was that more than 300,000 Afghan national security forces that we had trained over the past two decades, and equipped, would be a strong adversary in their civil wars with the Taliban. That assumption that the Afghan government would be able to hold on for a period of time beyond military drawdown turned out not to be accurate.

But I still instructed our national security team to prepare for every eventuality, even that one. And that’s what we did. So, we were ready.

When the Afghan security forces – after two decades of fighting for their country, and losing thousands of their own – did not hold on as long as anyone expected, we were ready when they, the people of Afghanistan, watched their own government collapse, and the president flee, amid the corruption and malfeasance, handing over the country to their enemy, the Taliban and significantly increasing the risk to US personnel and our allies.

As a result, to safely extract American citizens before August 31, as well as embassy personnel, allies and partners, and those Afghans who had worked with us and had fought alongside of us for 20 years, I had authorised 6,000 troops, American troops to Kabul to help secure the airport.
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Old 1st Sep 2021, 02:37
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You still cannot get around the fact he never completed the evacuation and left Afghan and Americans in harms way, it’s not as if every American etc could even make it to Kabul, it’s a bloody big country. No matter how rosy he paints a picture.
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Old 1st Sep 2021, 08:04
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Old 1st Sep 2021, 08:43
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Plenty of notice was given - but no-one expected the Afghan Govt to collapse so quickly - not even, I suspect, the Taliban



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Old 1st Sep 2021, 10:08
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Agreed but there was still a demand and US citizens trying to get in when they Foxtrot Oscar'd.
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