I thought the CIA and other agencies did see it coming.
Weren't Biden et al warned some time ago that the ANA could capitulate in weeks, even days, but ignored the advice?
Noting it's the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...liban-takeover
Both the Trump and Biden administrations were warned by US intelligence that the Afghan army’s resistance to the Taliban could collapse “within days” after an over-hasty withdrawal, according to a former CIA counter-terrorism chief.
Call me naïve - but I tend to believe the spooks here.