Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

[ORAC]

One of the forecasts being made is that the Taliban will, as they are rumoured t9 have already done, proclaim the production of opium as sinful and illegal - and will then negotiate with western nations for large amounts of aid to “pay” for their efforts at suppression.

At this point I will suggest this is an offer which, if made, should be be rejected. This is for three reasons.

Firstly opium production has been the main source of Taliban funding which they use to support their base and pay for their support.

Secondly, with weak support outside their homelands they haven’t the strength or equipment to do it.

Lastly, it wouldn’t work - https://marginalrevolution.com/margi...ghanistan.html

[Easy Street]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

One thing I note from the myriad of films shot by the Taliban gloating at the Airport and also by the press, is what isn't there, there appears to be a lack of Apache or Chinooks on the ground, these I would imagine were a prize asset the Taliban would have used in their propaganda, So I am assuming they have being flown out of country

That's probably because the Afghan Air Force didn't have any Apache or Chinooks. A point which many seem to miss is that, with the exception of the State Dept Sea Knights, the aircraft weren't actually the US's to recover: they belonged to the Afghan state. Oddly, the US government has helped to fuel the misconception by talking about the disabled aircraft as being 'left behind'.

There's almost an argument to say that the US should have limited itself to stripping the aircraft of sensitive equipment, and not completely disabled them: 1) doing so reinforced the Taliban narrative that the former government was simply a puppet of the US; 2) the Taliban don't need aircraft to terrorise the population (they're capable of that anyway) but aircraft might have helped it to fulfil its undertaking to suppress international terrorist groups; and 3) suffering inevitable crashes and IS-K shootdowns would hasten the Taliban's realisation of the limits on its power, which would be helpful to diplomatic efforts by neighbouring powers and the West.

[Easy Street]

Originally Posted by ORAC

One of the forecasts being made is that the Taliban will, as they are rumoured t9 have already done, proclaim the production of opium as sinful and illegal - and will then negotiate with western nations for large amounts of aid to “pay” for their efforts at suppression.

At this point I will suggest this is an offer which, if made, should be be rejected. This is for three reasons.

Not so sure, ORAC. Taliban dependence on drug money is contested by some experts, and even if it does reach the $400M annual 'worst' case, that's an amount the West can easily outmatch with suitable incentives.

In addition to the major sources listed at the link, the Taliban has indirectly been doing very well from Western aid, by extracting bribes from security forces and contractors in return for not attacking them. That will now have dried up, so they desperately need those aid flows to resume directly into their coffers.

Satellite crop monitoring is already used to track opium production, and application of AI promises to reduce the analytical burden. This makes it easy for outside powers to assess compliance from afar and make conditional payments. China is already doing precisely that elsewhere and will presumably share the Western interest in suppressing the Afghan opium trade. And it means the Taliban wouldn't need to patrol the entire countryside: we could tell them where to look. I daresay a few punishments for 'sinful' behaviour would have a greater deterrent effect than the former Western practice of simply destroying the crop.

[NutLoose]

That's probably because the Afghan Air Force didn't have any Apache or Chinooks. A point which many seem to miss is that, with the exception of the State Dept Sea Knights, the aircraft weren't actually the US's to recover: they belonged to the Afghan state. Oddly, the US government has helped to fuel the misconception by talking about the disabled aircraft as being 'left behind'.

BUT the US did and they used with the Chinooks alongside the CH46 to evacuate the Embassy covered by Apache, they also used Apache to clear the runway ahead of the C17 in the early days, so either they loaded them in a C17 which is probably doubtfull or they flew them out of Country refuelling at some point along the way, Because if they were still there you could bet the Apache would be spread all over the news courtesy of Taliban media.

2) the Taliban don't need aircraft to terrorise the population (they're capable of that anyway) but aircraft might have helped it to fulfil its undertaking to suppress international terrorist groups;

Or hanging people under Blackhawks

[Easy Street]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

so either they loaded them in a C17 which is probably doubtfull of they flew them out of Country refuelling at some point along the way

Not sure why it's doubtful they'll have been flown out in a C17. The airlift planners would have had the requirement in mind from the start, and anyway the supply of evacuees dried up in the last couple of days. Also, there are major military airbases in Pakistan well within unrefuelled range for both types. Neither option is remotely outlandish, so I'm not sure why you seem surprised?

[SASless]

Not so sure, ORAC. Taliban dependence on drug money is contested by some experts, and even if it does reach the $400M annual 'worst' case, that's an amount the West can easily outmatch with suitable incentives.

I suppose you believe in purple Unicorns too.

Explain to us how successful getting farmers to grow other crops instead of Opium Poppies has worked out elsewhere and including Afghanistan?

Have any examples you can offer up that confirms that strategy works?

How well did the US State Department effort in Afghanistan turn out in ending the growing of opiump poppies?

They had an entire fleet of Helicopters and joint forces operations for nearly the whole time we were in Afghanistan.

Then of course there is Columiba, Peru, and other Central and South America countries the DEA/State Department have Drug Eradication Operations and have for decades.

[NutLoose]

Easy to get a Chinook in a C17 you have to take the pylons off, not a 10 minute job.

Look at these showing more stuff dumped, they also left behind 200 odd working dogs, i hope they let them out of their cages etc.

https://www.thewashingtontime.com/us...vees-in-kabul/

[NutLoose]

https://www.republicworld.com/world-...joe-biden.html

The mother of the slain US Marine who had lashed out at President Joe Biden after her son was killed in the Kabul bombings has alleged that her Instagram account was taken down over her scathing views against the President. Shana Chappell, the mother of 20-year-old Marine Corps Lance Corporal Kareem Nikoui had made headlines after she accused Biden of 'rolling his eyes' at her when she met him at Dover Air Base on Friday. In a lengthy Facebook post, Chappell had claimed that the President had walked away from her when she demanded accountability from him and had 'thrown up his hands in annoyance' after she said that her son's blood was on his hands. The Facebook post had gone viral and had drawn a series of reactions, even as the White House refused to address the shocking allegations.

[SASless]

Establishing a FARP along the exile route is not a difficult task.

Remember there has been some cooperation by the Taliban to assist the evacuation operation.

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by Easy Street

Not sure why it's doubtful they'll have been flown out in a C17. The airlift planners would have had the requirement in mind from the start, and anyway the supply of evacuees dried up in the last couple of days. Also, there are major military airbases in Pakistan well within unrefuelled range for both types. Neither option is remotely outlandish, so I'm not sure why you seem surprised?

Indeed they did load them into C17s
US Completes Withdrawal from Afghanistan, Agreement with Taliban Let Afghans Leave, Diplomatic Mission Operates in Qatar, August 31, 2021

[Easy Street]

Originally Posted by SASless

I suppose you believe in purple Unicorns too.

The US precedents are not good, as you point out. But it doesn't follow that new technologies and different incentive structures won't succeed. The second link I posted claims that China is succeeding in Laos and Myanmar (yes, it's from a Chinese source, but why would they lie about it?) Satellite crop monitoring has only existed for the past 15 years and is only now becoming widely practical with the application of AI. So unlike in counter-narcotic efforts of years past, it's becoming genuinely possible to make payments conditional on actual outcomes. Dollar signs have a way of focusing people on results.

[SASless]

CNN is carrying an article reporting US Special Operation Forces worked with the Taliban to assist in the evacuation of approximately 1,000 people by means of a "secret" gate at the. Kabul Airport.

The arrangement had US Forces contact evacuees and have them meet at a rally point run by the Taliban who would check their documents and escort them to the gate where US Forces were standing by.

The report notes the years long negotiations with t he Taliban had provided for the cultivation of the process that led to many people being able to find a way to the Airport for evacuations.

A bit of looking at the CNN web site will locate that report.

[MPN11]

http://www.cnn.com/2021/08/31/politi...cnn-mobile-app

I think this is the one …

[ORAC]

Qatari aircraft carrying technical team said to land in Kabul airport

A technical team from Qatar arrived in Kabul on Sept. 1 to discuss the resumption of operations at the airport, AFP reported, citing a source familiar with the matter.

“A Qatari jet carrying a technical team has landed in Kabul earlier today to discuss the resumption of operations in the airport,” the source told AFP.

“While no final agreement has been reached regarding providing technical assistance, Qatar’s technical team has initiated this discussion based on the other sides’ request. Talks are still ongoing at the level of security and operation.”

The source said that the goal was to resume flights for both humanitarian aid and to provide freedom of movement, including the resumption of evacuation efforts.….

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Now there’s a target of opportunity

Jamming a flag in the door is just a disaster waiting to happen, sadly it didn’t.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-58413817

[TEEEJ]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Hanging people under a Blackhawk

https://newsactress.com/real-face-of...e-video-viral/

We got in touch with the channel via DM and it confirmed that the man was suspended from the helicopter to fix the flag on the governor’s building. “We have a team there, they have confirmed that the person was controlled and hanging from the helicopter to fix the flag at the governor’s building in Kandahar,” the channel told us.

https://www.altnews.in/does-the-vide...-a-helicopter/

[NutLoose]

Well.............. that's the press for you.

[ORAC]

Update on Afghanistan fuel imports.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ys-2021-08-23/

[chopper2004]

Throwing toys out of the prom

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...rs-planes.html

[NutLoose]

Tell the Taliban to ship them to the USA and they will look at repairing them for them

There is a link on here about them somewhere.