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Old 2nd April 2025 | 19:19
  #1641 (permalink)  
 
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From: Australia
Originally Posted by Asturias56
I'd assume there may be serious pressure in Iran to complete at least one bomb and test it ASAP - it doesn't have to be smart, it just has to go off.
I suspect that the moment they do that they'll have a visit from the Israeli Air Force.
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Old 2nd April 2025 | 20:00
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From: Texas
Originally Posted by Asturias56
I'd assume there may be serious pressure in Iran to complete at least one bomb and test it ASAP - it doesn't have to be smart, it just has to go off.
They have been grinding away at getting a bomb for some years now. I don't think that they are going to rush anything.
"If you want it bad, you get it bad" applies in a big way when the "it" is a nuclear weapon.
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Old 2nd April 2025 | 20:11
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From: USA
Originally Posted by artee
I suspect that the moment they do that they'll have a visit from the Israeli Air Force.
That would likely be the first direct attack by a nuclear capable nation on another nuclear capable nation. I'm sure there have been, uh, skirmishes between India and Pakistan at their borders and likewise between India and China, but Iran and Israel have no such situation. This would be a military attack on a military installation with the goal of crippling the Iranian military, aka, open war.
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Old 2nd April 2025 | 21:27
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From: Everett, WA
Originally Posted by MechEngr
This would be a military attack on a military installation with the goal of crippling the Iranian military, aka, open war.
What would you consider the major Israeli attack on Iran air defenses a few months back?
Israel and Iran have been trading blows for years - I'm not sure that Israel going after nuke facilities would be a whole lot different.
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Old 2nd April 2025 | 21:56
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From: USA
The nuclear Israel making an attack on a non-nuclear Iran in a tit-for-tat isn't open war. Making a pre-emptive strike against a nuclear Iran would be.
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Old 2nd April 2025 | 22:43
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Originally Posted by MechEngr
That would likely be the first direct attack by a nuclear capable nation on another nuclear capable nation. I'm sure there have been, uh, skirmishes between India and Pakistan at their borders and likewise between India and China, but Iran and Israel have no such situation. This would be a military attack on a military installation with the goal of crippling the Iranian military, aka, open war.
Osirak?
מִבְצָע אוֹפֵּרָה ? אילן רמון?


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Old 2nd April 2025 | 22:52
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From: The Gulf Coast
Originally Posted by fdr
Osirak?
מִבְצָע אוֹפֵּרָה ? אילן רמון?
What about the one in Syria in 2007?
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Old 2nd April 2025 | 22:59
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From: USA
Originally Posted by fdr
Osirak?
מִבְצָע אוֹפֵּרָה ? אילן רמון?
Was that a country with an operational nuclear weapon?

In a 2003 speech, Richard Wilson, a professor of physics at Harvard University who visually inspected the partially damaged reactor in December 1982, said that "to collect enough plutonium [for a nuclear weapon] using Osirak would've taken decades, not years". In 2005, Wilson further commented in The Atlantic: "The Osirak reactor that was bombed by Israel in June 1981 was explicitly designed by the French engineer Yves Girard to be unsuitable for making bombs. That was obvious to me on my 1982 visit". Elsewhere Wilson has stated that contrary to claims that the bombing of the Iraqi Osirak reactor delayed Iraq's nuclear bomb program, the Iraqi nuclear program before 1981 was peaceful, and the Osirak reactor was not only unsuited to making bombs but was under intensive safeguards.

In an interview in 2012, Wilson again emphasised: "The Iraqis couldn't have been developing a nuclear weapon at Osirak. I challenge any scientist in the world to show me how they could have done so."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operat...uclear_program
​​​​​​​
Unless you mean the attack by Israel on the French workers.
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Old 3rd April 2025 | 04:46
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From: Japan
Originally Posted by T28B
What about the one in Syria in 2007?
Yes, the North Korean plutonium reactor at al-Kibar.
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Old 3rd April 2025 | 08:31
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From: Ferrara
"They have been grinding away at getting a bomb for some years now. I don't think that they are going to rush anything."

Quite a few sources indicate they are very close to breakout if they choose to go that route.
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Old 3rd April 2025 | 09:11
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From: Jupiter
This is the new thing to fret about this month, is it? Iran is suddenly barely days away from developing nuclear capability?

Isn't it at all questionable how these stories just materialise overnight? One month ago literally nobody was talking about Iran's nuclear capability.

Now the bombers have been staged and all of a sudden the justification is materialising from the ether 'well they're about to develop a bomb.' Odd how the timing of that matches the US leadership change perfectly.

It's pure manufactured consent.

It's exactly like GW2, Bush Jr gets in and all of a sudden Iraq needs to be hit because they're 'about to...' whatever it was... and it was pure fiction!

History always repeats itself and nobody seems to learn any lessons. The dog, is wagged.

At least back then we had the 'dodgy dossier' so the complicit can be shamed after the fact. Now it's just 'yeah some guy on twitter said so.' And 'that guy' is probably just some AI ragebot.

List the sources. List the viable and reputable intelligence sources that say that Iran is 'very close to breakout' on this topic.
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Old 3rd April 2025 | 09:21
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From: Peripatetic
This is the new thing to fret about this month, is it? Iran is suddenly barely days away from developing nuclear capability?

Isn't it at all questionable how these stories just materialise overnight? One month ago literally nobody was talking about Iran's nuclear capability.

Now the bombers have been staged and all of a sudden the justification is materialising from the ether 'well they're about to develop a bomb.' Odd how the timing of that matches the US leadership change perfectly.
No, the timescale been known about for a couple of years and Israel has been very loud about either it being stopped or, when the moment came, they'd take action.

It's just no one else wanted to talk too loudly about it.

​​​​​​​The dog, is wagged.
Whatever you do don't mention the B3 bomber.

​​​​​​​
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Old 3rd April 2025 | 10:06
  #1653 (permalink)  
 
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From: Jupiter
Originally Posted by artee
I suspect that the moment they do that they'll have a visit from the Israeli Air Force.
It seems to be an unspoken rule of geopolitics that, if you're able to develop and pop off a nuke, you're in the club and nobody will attack you, they'll just rattle sabers. Which is why so many countries want one.
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Old 3rd April 2025 | 12:33
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From: Ferrara
"Isn't it at all questionable how these stories just materialise overnight? One month ago literally nobody was talking about Iran's nuclear capability."
not so - just read this thread - there is a constant commentary on Iran and the bomb.

Or try Wikipedia - they list regular updates by a wide variety of international institutions

Or say the Economist - again regular reports on how much and what grade of weapons material Iran is likely to have.

"It seems to be an unspoken rule of geopolitics that, if you're able to develop and pop off a nuke, you're in the club and nobody will attack you"
i'd say it was common sense myself....................
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Old 4th April 2025 | 17:01
  #1655 (permalink)  
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Things appear to be quickly moving along with Iran and the US. There are various press reports covering it all.

Yesterday Iran ordered their people to withdraw from Yemen and at the same time Trump was telling the press that he is not willing to speak with Iran through a third party but is only willing to do so face to face.

It is likely that Netanyahu will come to DC next week which some feel is significant especially when keeping in mind that the US is moving significant and heavy hitting hardware into the arena.

Some news outlets seem to feel that this is the beginning of a serious escalation of matters between Israel and the US against the Houthis ,Hamas, and Iran.

The general feeling is that Israel to go in a finish off Hamas and that the US will also at the same time totally destroy the Houthis.

The Iranians will then be left in a totally naked and almost defenseless position. The Iranians know that the US will totally destroy the economy and if the Iranians wants to fight it seems that the US and Israel will strike hard from two sides.They have little other choice other than to talk to the US.

Trump is also indicating that he is in quite regular communication with the Chinese and the Russians.

I'm inclined to think that we could be in for some fireworks soon.


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Old 5th April 2025 | 00:31
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From: Washington.
Originally Posted by Hangarless
Things appear to be quickly moving along with Iran and the US. There are various press reports covering it all.

Yesterday Iran ordered their people to withdraw from Yemen and at the same time Trump was telling the press that he is not willing to speak with Iran through a third party but is only willing to do so face to face.

It is likely that Netanyahu will come to DC next week which some feel is significant especially when keeping in mind that the US is moving significant and heavy hitting hardware into the arena.

Some news outlets seem to feel that this is the beginning of a serious escalation of matters between Israel and the US against the Houthis ,Hamas, and Iran.

The general feeling is that Israel to go in a finish off Hamas and that the US will also at the same time totally destroy the Houthis.

The Iranians will then be left in a totally naked and almost defenseless position. The Iranians know that the US will totally destroy the economy and if the Iranians wants to fight it seems that the US and Israel will strike hard from two sides.They have little other choice other than to talk to the US.

Trump is also indicating that he is in quite regular communication with the Chinese and the Russians.

I'm inclined to think that we could be in for some fireworks soon.
Considering what Trump is willing to do with the USA economy, destruction of Iran's is not out of the question.
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Old 5th April 2025 | 01:32
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From: USA
Originally Posted by Lascaille
It seems to be an unspoken rule of geopolitics that, if you're able to develop and pop off a nuke, you're in the club and nobody will attack you, they'll just rattle sabers. Which is why so many countries want one.
Except it seems, in the case of Israel.
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Old 5th April 2025 | 07:43
  #1658 (permalink)  
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From: Glorious Devon
I see that under Donald’s new twisted tariff scheme, Iran only gets 10%, same as the UK and the penguins.
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Old 5th April 2025 | 09:07
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From: Ferrara
They don't sell much to the USA............................
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Old 5th April 2025 | 09:21
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From: Jupiter
Originally Posted by Hangarless
The Iranians will then be left in a totally naked and almost defenseless position. The Iranians know that the US will totally destroy the economy
Uh... they'll be in their country. We're always being told it's well defended and highly militarised. And they're already almost under 100% US sanctions and have been for quite some time. I don't really know what the US could do that would damage the Iranian economy more.

If the Iranians pull their guys back into Iran that will probably end things for the Houthis without their support and expertise but to say that the US will then decide to go into Iran is a stretch. Likewise I don't see Israel going into Iran unless it's a specific targeted action against a nuclear site. Too many of the cities are holy and they respect each other's holy places. Mostly.
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