Iran

[Lonewolf_50]

As I noted earlier: mine laying is a tool in their kit bag which plays into their economic warfare hand.

Originally Posted by Daily Kos

Axios just reported that the U.S just destroyed 10 inactive Iranian mine laying ships out of concern about mine laying operations.

In the same article, apparently CNN got from a "US Intel Source" that Iranian mine laying has already been observed.
Gee, who saw that coming? Anyone with a clue.

The casualty numbers I saw, Ninthace, was 140 wounded, 8 of them critically. I have seen no more detail than that.

[albatross]

What is going on with Shipping
Sal comes through with a new report.

You Tube

[dogle]

In the way, way back I had a brief but fascinating spell assisting Her Maj’s Mine Countermeasures boffins - whiIst I must remain forever silent on what exactly we were up to back then, it was quite an eye-opener.

In early WW II there was a problem when Fritz started dropping mines with magnetic pistols ... countermeasures were swiftly developed, vide those very strange looking Wellingtons! ... but by the end of the war Fritz had fielded an new nasty with pressure-wave pistols, which were unsweepable other than by using something the size of a big ship to set them off .. so after VE Day we left it to Fritz to clean up his own backyard.

I truly dread to think what wholesale unsweepabilty today’s smart electronics convey to modern naval mine systems.

The draft of a loaded VLCC is something like 20m, and in the ~ ~ 60m depth of the Strait, I presume it would not need a huge charge of modern explosives to achieve the requisite mayhem. Should that be so, Iran retains the capabilty to close the Straits for many months by mining whether by airdrop from whatever air assetts remain to them (Piper Cub,anyone?) or even by ‘fishing’ vessels.

Well, what I feared might happen is today being reported by CNN et al. - mines are now being deployed by the IRGC - oh, dear! - Uncle Donald, have you now been Trumped by the bad guys?

[ Disclosure - I am still long Brent .. you bet! }.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Originally Posted by dogle

In the way, way back I had a brief but fascinating spell assisting Her Maj’s Mine Countermeasures boffins - whiIst I must remain forever silent on what exactly we were up to back then, it was quite an eye-opener.

In early WW II there was a problem when Fritz started dropping mines with magnetic pistols ... countermeasures were swiftly developed, vide those very strange looking Wellingtons! ... but by the end of the war Fritz had fielded an new nasty with pressure-wave pistols, which were unsweepable other than by using something the size of a big ship to set them off .. so after VE Day we left it to Fritz to clean up his own backyard.

I truly dread to think what wholesale unsweepabilty today’s smart electronics convey to modern naval mine systems.

The draft of a loaded VLCC is something like 20m, and in the ~ ~ 60m depth of the Strait, I presume it would not need a huge charge of modern explosives to achieve the requisite mayhem. Should that be so, Iran retains the capabilty to close the Straits for many months by mining whether by airdrop from whatever air assetts remain to them (Piper Cub,anyone?) or even by ‘fishing’ vessels.

Well, what I feared might happen is today being reported by CNN et al. - mines are now being deployed by the IRGC - oh, dear! - Uncle Donald, have you now been Trumped by the bad guys?

[ Disclosure - I am still long Brent .. you bet! }.

MCM is the least sexy warfare area and almost never gets the attention it deserves. I remember attended a planning conference for a combined USN RCN exercise as a junior LCdr. I got to chatting with one of the USN Mine Warfare Ship CO's who was participating in the exercise. I asked him how it was going and he just sighed and said "Oh Just as I expected the CTG approach to the mine threat is the WAMTAMO method (Wish Away the Mines Then a Miracle Occurs). It soon became obvious he wasn't wrong.......

[kiwi grey]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

The problem I see is the US will struggle to maintain a supply to the region, hence their need for a short war, unfortunately as the US needs to move tons of munitions half way across the world to the region, Iran doesn’t. Apparently Trump is stripping South Korea of its patriot batteries and shipping them to the Middle East.

We are all worrying about the outward supply of oil, oil products and LNG from the Gulf to the rest of the world, which flow constitutes about 20% of all such trade. This is a potentially very serious problem. However, the Gulf countries - including Saudi Arabia - import the vast majority (I read 90%) of their food, and it too needs to pass through the Straits of Hormuz, only going the other way.
I suspect they'll run out of food a long time before we are badly inconvenienced by diesel shortages.
I know which shortage I'd rather suffer

[jolihokistix]

Escorting minesweepers etc., build up a large oil and LP gas carrier convoy, and send through anonymously with ships in very close formation, Chinese tankers randomly mixed inside the fleet.

[artee]

Originally Posted by jolihokistix

Escorting minesweepers etc., build up a large oil and LP gas carrier convey, and send through anonymously with ships in very close formation, Chinese tankers randomly mixed inside the fleet.

I don't think VLCC/ULCC can do close formation.

[Lonewolf_50]

Have they also become children of the magenta line, artee?

[artee]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Have they also become children of the magenta line, artee?

The computer, she say "No!"

[NutLoose]

At some point the US is going to call endex to this farce under their publicised assumptions that they have won and withdraw all their built up expensive forces from the region, the problem there is they will leave a vulnerability to the US bases that Iran can at anytime attack.

Therefore has the US built a rod for their own backs in having to maintain a credible and expensive force in the region for years to come. I am sure there are a lot of Middle Eastern countries that were attacked looking at the disadvantages of having US bases on their territory.

[Winemaker]

Originally Posted by kiwi grey

We are all worrying about the outward supply of oil, oil products and LNG from the Gulf to the rest of the world, which flow constitutes about 20% of all such trade. This is a potentially very serious problem. However, the Gulf countries - including Saudi Arabia - import the vast majority (I read 90%) of their food, and it too needs to pass through the Straits of Hormuz, only going the other way.
I suspect they'll run out of food a long time before we are badly inconvenienced by diesel shortages.
I know which shortage I'd rather suffer

There certainly are land routes for resupply of food etc. Everything does not have to come through the straits, so I'm not sure it's dire. Of course I could be wrong!

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by artee

The computer, she say "No!"

We need to take this comedy show on the road! I set 'em up, you spike 'em.

From the WSJ

• The U.S. Navy's guided-missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner successfully intercepted and destroyed multiple Iranian fast-attack craft that were attempting to harass and seize a commercial vessel.
• The incident unfolded in international waters of the Gulf of Oman.
• Iranian forces were attempting to seize a commercial oil tanker.
• The U.S. Navy presence was in response to increased threats from Iran in the region.
• This encounter highlights ongoing tensions and maritime security concerns in the Middle East.
• The U.S. military stated its commitment to freedom of navigation and ensuring the safety of commercial shipping.
• The precise number of Iranian vessels destroyed was 16, encompassing mine-laying boats and other types of craft.
• The U.S. Central Command confirmed the operation.

It would appear that some success is being had in the counter mine effort, and in the 'confidence building effort for the bean counters at Lloyd's of London' but this is hardly over.
Any ship can take on board and lay mines.
Any ship can be a minesweeper...once.
(A colleague of mine got to experience that on board USS Princeton in the Persian Gulf...)

Spoiler

 

 

On the morning of 18 February 1991, during Operation Desert Storm, Princeton was patrolling 28 nautical miles (52 km) off Failaka Island in the Persian Gulf, on the west side of the decoy United States Marine Corps and naval invasion forces afloat. At exactly 7:15 AM local time two Italian-made MN103 Manta bottom-mounted influence mines detonated, one just under the port rudder and the other just forward of the starboard bow, the second explosion most likely being a sympathetic detonation caused by the first. The blasts cracked the superstructure, buckled three lines in the hull, jammed the port rudder, flooded the #3 switchboard room through chilled water pipe cracks, and damaged the starboard propeller shaft. Three crewmembers were injured, one seriously. Despite the severe damage, the forward weapons and the AEGIS combat system were back online within 15 minutes.

At great peril, the Canadian destroyer HMCS Athabaskan moved north through the minefield to deliver damage-control supplies to the severely damaged Princeton, which remained on station for 31 hours until she was relieved. Princeton's commanding officer, Captain Edward Hontz, specifically requested the assistance of Athabaskan despite the latter not originally assigned to the area. Unlike most ships of her size, Athabaskan could simultaneously operate two large CH-124 Sea King helicopters, which could search out mines for long periods. As a gesture of solidarity, the Athabaskan's helicopters winched over seventeen cases of beer for the crew of the Princeton, since United States Navy vessels were dry.

Princeton, which suffered from a locked starboard propeller shaft and a locked port rudder, was guided through the minefield by the minesweeper Adroit. Temporary repairs were conducted first in Bahrain, and then in the port of Jebel Ali near Dubai by the duty destroyer tender Acadia, and finally in a Dubai drydock. After eight weeks, Princeton returned to the United States under the ship's power for additional repairs. The ship and her crew were awarded the Combat Action Ribbon.

Captain Edward Hontz turned over command to Captain J. Cutler Dawson before moving on to command the Aegis Training Command in Dahlgren, Virginia. Future Chief of Naval Operations, Michael M. Gilday was serving aboard Princeton as an officer during the ordeal, and was awarded the Navy Commendation Medal with Valor for his actions.

I had the pleasure of serving under Captain Hontz when he was a destroyer captain.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

We need to take this comedy show on the road! I set 'em up, you spike 'em.

From the WSJ
It would appear that some success is being had in the counter mine effort, and in the 'confidence building effort for the bean counters at Lloyd's of London' but this is hardly over.
Any ship can take on board and lay mines.
Any ship can be a minesweeper...once.
(A colleague of mine got to experience that on board USS Princeton in the Persian Gulf...)

Spoiler

 

 

On the morning of 18 February 1991, during Operation Desert Storm, Princeton was patrolling 28 nautical miles (52 km) off Failaka Island in the Persian Gulf, on the west side of the decoy United States Marine Corps and naval invasion forces afloat. At exactly 7:15 AM local time two Italian-made MN103 Manta bottom-mounted influence mines detonated, one just under the port rudder and the other just forward of the starboard bow, the second explosion most likely being a sympathetic detonation caused by the first. The blasts cracked the superstructure, buckled three lines in the hull, jammed the port rudder, flooded the #3 switchboard room through chilled water pipe cracks, and damaged the starboard propeller shaft. Three crewmembers were injured, one seriously. Despite the severe damage, the forward weapons and the AEGIS combat system were back online within 15 minutes.

At great peril, the Canadian destroyer HMCS Athabaskan moved north through the minefield to deliver damage-control supplies to the severely damaged Princeton, which remained on station for 31 hours until she was relieved. Princeton's commanding officer, Captain Edward Hontz, specifically requested the assistance of Athabaskan despite the latter not originally assigned to the area. Unlike most ships of her size, Athabaskan could simultaneously operate two large CH-124 Sea King helicopters, which could search out mines for long periods. As a gesture of solidarity, the Athabaskan's helicopters winched over seventeen cases of beer for the crew of the Princeton, since United States Navy vessels were dry.

Princeton, which suffered from a locked starboard propeller shaft and a locked port rudder, was guided through the minefield by the minesweeper Adroit. Temporary repairs were conducted first in Bahrain, and then in the port of Jebel Ali near Dubai by the duty destroyer tender Acadia, and finally in a Dubai drydock. After eight weeks, Princeton returned to the United States under the ship's power for additional repairs. The ship and her crew were awarded the Combat Action Ribbon.

Captain Edward Hontz turned over command to Captain J. Cutler Dawson before moving on to command the Aegis Training Command in Dahlgren, Virginia. Future Chief of Naval Operations, Michael M. Gilday was serving aboard Princeton as an officer during the ordeal, and was awarded the Navy Commendation Medal with Valor for his actions.

I had the pleasure of serving under Captain Hontz when he was a destroyer captain.

MCM is going to be under pressure for some time, but I would be concerned with the drone/arty issues. Making out like Somali "marine toll booth attendants" is going to be an irritant to deal with that has the potential to be a maritime ecological disaster along the lines of a 9/11 repurposing.

The only good news on this sorry mess is that there is a big beautiful "I dunnit" flag over the proceedings, a re-run of F-Troop. In all fairness, the Pk of an elegant success would be 99:1 against and that is being optimistic, there's a few more 9's to be added to solutions to the Rubik's cube that is the ME.

[Steel City]

Originally Posted by Winemaker

There certainly are land routes for resupply of food etc. Everything does not have to come through the straits, so I'm not sure it's dire. Of course I could be wrong!

Yes, but distances are long across challenging terrain, especially moving into the warmer months. Sohar to Doha is 820 km, travelling through Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Logistically, that is no fun. I there enough port capacity in the alternative locations?

It is also highly unlikely that there is enough trucking capacity - the largest container ships carry 24,000 containers. That is an awful lot of trucks (and people and fuel).

Basic provisions - water (due to loss of desalination capacity), food and medicines can become stretched very quickly when supply chains are disrupted.

[mahogany bob]

Posts above all very gloomy !

Possible negotiating stance

we will stop bombing you IF you keep shipping lanes open
even the mad mullahs must like that ?

could AND stop supporting terrorism be included or is that out of control / impossible to negotiate ?

back to square one except Iran’s military threat severely downgraded - nuclear threat put back years ?

and revolution more likely in time ?

so a partial victory for Donald ! and gives us time for technology to cheaply counter the drone threat

here’s ( naively ) hoping !

[dead_pan]

Daily Telegraph reporting that 2 cargo ships are ablaze in the NE Gulf of Oman

[[email protected]]

Giving a reprieve to Vlad the impaler adds a certain level of frustration to the strategy that is being employed.

There's a strategy?????????

[Recc]

Originally Posted by mahogany bob

Posts above all very gloomy !

Possible negotiating stance

we will stop bombing you IF you keep shipping lanes open
even the mad mullahs must like that ?

We are constantly being told that they are religious fanatics who would gladly sacrifice themselves and their entire population if it meant being able to drop a nuke on Israel. Now that they (possibly) have the power to inflict real cost on the West you expect them to act rationally? Keep in mind that you are negotiating with a man who's wife and both parents were killed a few days ago in an airstrike. Ask yourself how you would react in that situation?

Militarily most of the damage has been done, the ongoing costs will diminish (proportionally) and a popular uprising is much less likely due to the ongoing war. It is far from clear to me that a ceasefire agreement is even a rational choice for Iran at the moment.

[[email protected]]

So apart from:
A. The bombing of a girls school due to poor int and AI targeting (allegedly).
B. The constantly changing reasons for starting the conflict and the equally constant changing of what constitutes a win in the same conflict.
C. The inability to confirm that nuclear capabilities have been destroyed and now the potential ecological disaster in the Straits of Hormuz (not to mention the ongoing one from the burning of the oilfields)
and D. The inevitable creation of new generations of anti-Western martyrs in both Iran and Lebanon

What exactly has this conflict done on a positive note?

A. Regime change? Not so far as anyone can tell, the King is dead long live the King.
B. Destruction of nuclear capability? No evidence and this was supposed to have been done last year or do I misunderstand the term obliterated?
C. Destruction of drone and missile capability? Certainly seems to have been targeted but they keep firing back.
D. Improving stability in the Middle East? Hahahahahahahah
E. Raising the price of oil allowing rampant profiteering? Oh yes, they have managed that.

Interesting that editing makes your likes disappear?????

[Steel City]

Originally Posted by mahogany bob

Posts above all very gloomy !

Possible negotiating stance

we will stop bombing you IF you keep shipping lanes open
even the mad mullahs must like that ?

could AND stop supporting terrorism be included or is that out of control / impossible to negotiate ?

The former is possibly acceptable to Trump and co (but it is not the unconditional surrender that they have been demanding).

But is this a deal that Israel would accept? The Israeli government has far less to gain from such an agreement.

An additional problem is that Trump has no track record in keeping his side of a bargain, so would whoever is now making decisions in Iran believe such a deal would be honoured?