Iran
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We (@TheGoodISIS) released a comprehensive study today jam packed with satellite imagery that analyzed all the nuclear related facilities targeted during this 2026 phase of the Iran war.
This is an incredibly important study and really shows the power of open-source intel. We used satellite imagery to assess the damage done to Irans nuclear program.
Let me be clear, Irans program has suffered widespread destruction and devastation. Many facilities related to the research and development process involved in actually building a nuclear weapon (weaponization) have been destroyed or heavily damaged. Scientists have been killed, eliminating their tacit knowledge/know-how that was built up over years of experience and must be relearned and retrained in a new generation of experts.
And other factors occurred, but those are discussed in the report. This is all on too of the fact that Iran does not maintain a uranium enrichment program, which was destroyed in June 2025 (although that could be rebuilt at huge expense).
These new factors will undoubtedly extend the time needed to finish a nuclear weapon and raise the chance of failure if such a decision is taken (which would be incredibly risky for Iran and have no clear guarantee of success).
Ultimately, we found that current IC assessment (as reported by Reuters) that since the June 2025 war, the amount of time the program has been set back by hasn’t changed is a very hard assessment to defend or justify given the facts we outline in the report.
When looking at the scale of the new damage and new sites hit, especially those involved in nuclear weaponization work, it’s its clear that the damage is significant and pushes back the timetable. We would love for the IC to release how they reached their conclusion that it remained the same few month timetable to a bomb.
To be clear, a pathway to a bomb still exists for Iran, we see it now as a very dubious and increasingly challenging pathway.
What worries us still is the status of the enriched uranium stockpiles. As long as the enriched uranium remains within Iran and Iran insists it has a right to enrich uranium and rebuild its destroyed program, a longterm pathway to a nuclear weapon is an option. Iran must give up its enriched uranium stocks and abandon its enrichment program.
Pickaxe Mountain and the status of the newly declared enrichment plant in the tunnel complex at Esfahan adds further worry.
All of this must be dealt with during negotiations, dismantled, and then strictly verified and monitored by the IAEA to ensure no cheating occurs.
P.s. I added some teaser images below.
Read our full COMPREHENSIVE imagery report here: https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis...92124_gzfh.pdf
This is an incredibly important study and really shows the power of open-source intel. We used satellite imagery to assess the damage done to Irans nuclear program.
Let me be clear, Irans program has suffered widespread destruction and devastation. Many facilities related to the research and development process involved in actually building a nuclear weapon (weaponization) have been destroyed or heavily damaged. Scientists have been killed, eliminating their tacit knowledge/know-how that was built up over years of experience and must be relearned and retrained in a new generation of experts.
And other factors occurred, but those are discussed in the report. This is all on too of the fact that Iran does not maintain a uranium enrichment program, which was destroyed in June 2025 (although that could be rebuilt at huge expense).
These new factors will undoubtedly extend the time needed to finish a nuclear weapon and raise the chance of failure if such a decision is taken (which would be incredibly risky for Iran and have no clear guarantee of success).
Ultimately, we found that current IC assessment (as reported by Reuters) that since the June 2025 war, the amount of time the program has been set back by hasn’t changed is a very hard assessment to defend or justify given the facts we outline in the report.
When looking at the scale of the new damage and new sites hit, especially those involved in nuclear weaponization work, it’s its clear that the damage is significant and pushes back the timetable. We would love for the IC to release how they reached their conclusion that it remained the same few month timetable to a bomb.
To be clear, a pathway to a bomb still exists for Iran, we see it now as a very dubious and increasingly challenging pathway.
What worries us still is the status of the enriched uranium stockpiles. As long as the enriched uranium remains within Iran and Iran insists it has a right to enrich uranium and rebuild its destroyed program, a longterm pathway to a nuclear weapon is an option. Iran must give up its enriched uranium stocks and abandon its enrichment program.
Pickaxe Mountain and the status of the newly declared enrichment plant in the tunnel complex at Esfahan adds further worry.
All of this must be dealt with during negotiations, dismantled, and then strictly verified and monitored by the IAEA to ensure no cheating occurs.
P.s. I added some teaser images below.
Read our full COMPREHENSIVE imagery report here: https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis...92124_gzfh.pdf
Last edited by ORAC; 8th May 2026 at 09:21.
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An couple of interesting reports from Qatari Al Jazeera, the first is regarding the stance of the UAE and the other Gulf States and the US friction that appears to be building tween the Allies in the region
This second is in regard to the Iranian ships Touska and Hasna that have been attacked by the USN, and other aspects of shipping within the Strait
Both of the above have been released today, within the last few minutes to be exact. They do bring questions about what exactly is going on, whether or not the ceasefire is holding and what the relative "sides" are thinking and doing. Everything seems to be very tangled, to put it lightly.
This second is in regard to the Iranian ships Touska and Hasna that have been attacked by the USN, and other aspects of shipping within the Strait
Both of the above have been released today, within the last few minutes to be exact. They do bring questions about what exactly is going on, whether or not the ceasefire is holding and what the relative "sides" are thinking and doing. Everything seems to be very tangled, to put it lightly.
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There seems to be some confusion in regard to whether or not two USN ships were hit this week during the first day of Project Freedom and whether it was the USN or UAE that attacked various places in Iran yesterday during the transit of 3 US warships through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Maritime Executive via CBS, USS Mason and USS Truxtun were hit whilst they escorted ships on the initial attempt of Project Freedom. Now we are told that the reason behind halting Project Freedom was issues tween the US and Saudi Arabia, which incidently do not seem to be completely settled yet. However, you do have to wonder if the halting of Project Freedom was part due to Saudi Arabia and part due to two USN ships being hit...and the issue that the US is possibly vetoing any operational decisions that might place US military in danger, specifically ships as noted in post 5761 above.
Maritime Executive have also raised the question of who shot what last night. The general media led by social media have said that the US opened fire on Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, Minab, Gachin, Bandar e Khamir and Sirik. However, there is an Iranian news agency - Tasnim - who saying that it wasn't the US but that it was the UAE who mounted the attacks. The US keeps repeating that the ceasefire is holding, Iran claim that it isn't....if the UAE have taken it upon themselves to attack Iran independantly, that makes for an entirely new mess.
Amidst Ceasefire, U.S. Launches New Strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (Maritime Executive - May 7, 2026)
According to Maritime Executive via CBS, USS Mason and USS Truxtun were hit whilst they escorted ships on the initial attempt of Project Freedom. Now we are told that the reason behind halting Project Freedom was issues tween the US and Saudi Arabia, which incidently do not seem to be completely settled yet. However, you do have to wonder if the halting of Project Freedom was part due to Saudi Arabia and part due to two USN ships being hit...and the issue that the US is possibly vetoing any operational decisions that might place US military in danger, specifically ships as noted in post 5761 above.
Maritime Executive have also raised the question of who shot what last night. The general media led by social media have said that the US opened fire on Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, Minab, Gachin, Bandar e Khamir and Sirik. However, there is an Iranian news agency - Tasnim - who saying that it wasn't the US but that it was the UAE who mounted the attacks. The US keeps repeating that the ceasefire is holding, Iran claim that it isn't....if the UAE have taken it upon themselves to attack Iran independantly, that makes for an entirely new mess.
Amidst Ceasefire, U.S. Launches New Strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (Maritime Executive - May 7, 2026)
Tasnim News initially attributed the attacks not to the U.S., but to the UAE, which has previously played a supporting role for U.S. forces but has generally refrained from frontline combat.
“If this issue is confirmed, the UAE will pay the cost of its hostile action,” Tasnim stated.
“If this issue is confirmed, the UAE will pay the cost of its hostile action,” Tasnim stated.
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Given the attacks Iran made on them, it's hard to blame them for taking a few shots back across the Gulf.
Last edited by Chock Puller; 8th May 2026 at 12:36. Reason: Remove response to deleted post.
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Tankers and other Iranian ships subject to sanction by the US.....
We already know about Touska (containership) that was disabled by the USN firing at it and rendering the engineroom severely damaged as a result.
Then came along Hasna which I mentioned earlier today that had its rudder effectively amputated by an F/A-18 from the Abraham Lincoln.
Now another tanker has met with a slightly confusing and bizarre situation. The Iranians call her Ocean Koi, but according to AIS her name is Jin Li (ex Ocean Koi). She was apparently stopped under US sanction by the USN in the Gulf of Oman but has now been seized by Iran under a judicial order. I have to admit to being slightly puzzled by this, so I hunted down the Iranian news agency Tasnim to see if they could make sense of what was going on with the ship......and frankly, it is as clear as mud.
Iranian Navy Seizes Violating Oil Tanker in Sea of Oman (Tansim News Agency, Iran - May 8th, 2026)
The ship in question is currently showing as being off the Sohar anchorage, Oman
We already know about Touska (containership) that was disabled by the USN firing at it and rendering the engineroom severely damaged as a result.
Then came along Hasna which I mentioned earlier today that had its rudder effectively amputated by an F/A-18 from the Abraham Lincoln.
Now another tanker has met with a slightly confusing and bizarre situation. The Iranians call her Ocean Koi, but according to AIS her name is Jin Li (ex Ocean Koi). She was apparently stopped under US sanction by the USN in the Gulf of Oman but has now been seized by Iran under a judicial order. I have to admit to being slightly puzzled by this, so I hunted down the Iranian news agency Tasnim to see if they could make sense of what was going on with the ship......and frankly, it is as clear as mud.
Iranian Navy Seizes Violating Oil Tanker in Sea of Oman (Tansim News Agency, Iran - May 8th, 2026)
The ship in question is currently showing as being off the Sohar anchorage, Oman
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I suspect that KSA & GCC (after Trump) initially swallowed the line that regime change would take place shortly after Feb 28 — making life better for all around including Iranians long under the boots of the IRGC.
Didn't happen.
Iran has little capacity to directly retaliate against Israel and the US; so has to target what it can reach: Hormuz and KSA & GCC infrastructure.
We now see KSA & GCC becoming choosy as to what missions they will allow in their airspace as they realize that they will remain stuck dealing with the IRGC that will hit them whenever Israel or the US hits Iran.
Nobody likes being consigned to collateral damage fodder.
Didn't happen.
Iran has little capacity to directly retaliate against Israel and the US; so has to target what it can reach: Hormuz and KSA & GCC infrastructure.
We now see KSA & GCC becoming choosy as to what missions they will allow in their airspace as they realize that they will remain stuck dealing with the IRGC that will hit them whenever Israel or the US hits Iran.
Nobody likes being consigned to collateral damage fodder.
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The Maritime Executive are reporting that two more Iranian tankers have been disabled by F/A-18 aircraft in the Gulf of Oman, this time from USS George H W Bush, these disablements have been confirmed by CENTCOM. No names have been released of the tankers as yet, but the tactics have changed in that instead or hitting the rudder or engineroom, the latest method to disable the ships is to shoot their stacks off. No updates on any of the now 3 tankers to have had parts shot off them in regard to casualties or if they have been seized by USN personnel. I shall keep an eye on this and update as / when information is released.
Further to this story can be found : U.S. Navy Fighter Jet Disables Two More Iranian Tankers (Maritime Executive - May 8, 2026)
It should be noted that the stack is not the cleanest part of the ship, shooting them off the ship can potentially cause pollution in what is a very fragile area when it comes to sealife.
As to the Strait of Hormuz, nothing appears to be moving in either direction this morning. The Strait remains closed to all traffic, the only ships moving are small cargo ships belonging to Iran that are in the Khasab-Larak / Ramchah line. There has still been no sighting on AIS of the CMA CGM San Antonio, which is concerning.
One slightly unusual aspect are that ships (and there are a few hundred of them) that are using Mina Saqr, Ras-al-Khaimah, Umm Al Quwain, Sharjah, Dubai and Jebel Ali anchorages have almost all gone dark on AIS, possibly a case of if they cannot be seen, they cannot be hit should the hostilities restart.
Traffic seems to be moving freely through Bab-al-Mandab. No incidents have been reported, it does have to be noted that there are 3 or 4 patrol type ships out of Djibouti in the area. There has been a report of a dhow that had been taken by Somalian pirates and had been confirmed as being used to attack general shipping in the Gulf of Aden / Bab-al-Mandab area has now been abandoned by the piracy group due to the increase of civilian and military activity working to stop such incidents. The dhow had effectively been the mother ship for skiffs and at least one VLCC approached at the end of April this year.
On the image of Bab-el-Mandab below taken a few minutes ago, the pale blue arrows are Djibouti patrols
Further to this story can be found : U.S. Navy Fighter Jet Disables Two More Iranian Tankers (Maritime Executive - May 8, 2026)
It should be noted that the stack is not the cleanest part of the ship, shooting them off the ship can potentially cause pollution in what is a very fragile area when it comes to sealife.
As to the Strait of Hormuz, nothing appears to be moving in either direction this morning. The Strait remains closed to all traffic, the only ships moving are small cargo ships belonging to Iran that are in the Khasab-Larak / Ramchah line. There has still been no sighting on AIS of the CMA CGM San Antonio, which is concerning.
One slightly unusual aspect are that ships (and there are a few hundred of them) that are using Mina Saqr, Ras-al-Khaimah, Umm Al Quwain, Sharjah, Dubai and Jebel Ali anchorages have almost all gone dark on AIS, possibly a case of if they cannot be seen, they cannot be hit should the hostilities restart.
Traffic seems to be moving freely through Bab-al-Mandab. No incidents have been reported, it does have to be noted that there are 3 or 4 patrol type ships out of Djibouti in the area. There has been a report of a dhow that had been taken by Somalian pirates and had been confirmed as being used to attack general shipping in the Gulf of Aden / Bab-al-Mandab area has now been abandoned by the piracy group due to the increase of civilian and military activity working to stop such incidents. The dhow had effectively been the mother ship for skiffs and at least one VLCC approached at the end of April this year.
On the image of Bab-el-Mandab below taken a few minutes ago, the pale blue arrows are Djibouti patrols
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At the other end of the Persian Gulf, an extremely large oil slick has been seen via satellite close to Kharg Island. Images, including the one below, were captured by European Copernicus Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 satellites tween May 6th and May 8th. Estimates of 3000 barrels worth of oil stretching for more than 20 miles.
Large oil slick detected off key Iranian oil depot, satellite images show - (Khaleej Times - May 9th, 2026)
It should be noted that Kharg is very close to protected wetland and nature reserves, this slick is endangering those areas. The US is not denying that they have hit the island and Iran have not admitted releasing oil on purpose....both are very much possible.
Large oil slick detected off key Iranian oil depot, satellite images show - (Khaleej Times - May 9th, 2026)
It should be noted that Kharg is very close to protected wetland and nature reserves, this slick is endangering those areas. The US is not denying that they have hit the island and Iran have not admitted releasing oil on purpose....both are very much possible.
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This should of course be balanced against the many times in recent years when Iran has boarded and seized ships transiting the Gulf and used drones to attack shipping within and without the Hormuz Strait.
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Another Iranian ship, Vina, has managed to, so far, evade the US blockade. She is an LPG / chemical tanker currently off Fujairah anchorage. A second LPG tanker has also been spotted but remains unnamed that has also, so far, evaded the US blockade. Both ships carry Iranian LPG from Iran to Yemen and are in ballast and effectively on their way home. Both ships were spotted by TankerTrackers and their information available widely, so perhaps the USN will intercept them at some point before they can enter the Strait of Hormuz for homeports in Iran.
Note....Vina is an ex Maersk (Maersk Humber) owned ship now registered in Botswana, she was built in 1998. Oddly she is also listed as named as Valley. Both names share the same IMO number, thus the same ship.
Vina, seen below, on AIS May 6, 2026.
Note....Vina is an ex Maersk (Maersk Humber) owned ship now registered in Botswana, she was built in 1998. Oddly she is also listed as named as Valley. Both names share the same IMO number, thus the same ship.
Vina, seen below, on AIS May 6, 2026.
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It should be noted that Kharg is very close to protected wetland and nature reserves, this slick is endangering those areas. The US is not denying that they have hit the island and Iran have not admitted releasing oil on purpose....both are very much possible.
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
Are the Iranians really likely to mess on their own doorstep though?
So, potentially opening the stopcocks on the pipelines and releasing oil could be a way of not only releasing the pressure but also a way of contaminating the sea around Kharg Island as some form of defence, perhaps....afterall oil on water will burn, hypothetically any attack on the island that falls short maybe ignites the floating slick.
Anything is possible. The environmental damage will be immense regardless of reason for the slick or who is responsible for it.
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From: Wilds of Warwickshire
Note....Vina is an ex Maersk (Maersk Humber) owned ship now registered in Botswana, she was built in 1998. Oddly she is also listed as named as Valley. Both names share the same IMO number, thus the same ship.
You do have to wonder why totally landlocked countries are able to register ships!?
You do have to wonder why totally landlocked countries are able to register ships!?
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Note....Vina is an ex Maersk (Maersk Humber) owned ship now registered in Botswana, she was built in 1998. Oddly she is also listed as named as Valley. Both names share the same IMO number, thus the same ship.
You do have to wonder why totally landlocked countries are able to register ships!?
You do have to wonder why totally landlocked countries are able to register ships!?
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From: UK
Why Does It Matter if Iran Shuts In its Oil Wells? (Maritime Executive - May 6, 2026).
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There are a couple of movements in the Strait of Hormuz.
One is an Iranian owned / flagged oil products tanker, Maoming. She left Bandar Abbas on April 29 and only just activated her AIS, she is going to Asaluyeh in Iran. The other is an LNG tanker, Al Kharaitiyat, owned by Nakilat Shipping Qatar, flagged Marshall Islands. She left the Fateh Oil Field (UAE) on May 5th and is going to Port Qasim in Pakistan.
One is an Iranian owned / flagged oil products tanker, Maoming. She left Bandar Abbas on April 29 and only just activated her AIS, she is going to Asaluyeh in Iran. The other is an LNG tanker, Al Kharaitiyat, owned by Nakilat Shipping Qatar, flagged Marshall Islands. She left the Fateh Oil Field (UAE) on May 5th and is going to Port Qasim in Pakistan.
Last edited by BonnieLass; 9th May 2026 at 13:02.
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BonnieLass
Just for info, oil on water is unwilling to burn as the Royal Navy discovered in the Torrey Canyon disaster which sent thousands of tons of crude into the English Channel. My friend Giles, one of the Buccaneer pilots who attacked with incendiaries and napalm, told me that the oil certainly burned around the ordnance but "the damn stuff just wouldn't stay alight no matter what we tried". Thanks for your hard work in keeping us in touch with shipping aspects of Trump's disaster.
Just for info, oil on water is unwilling to burn as the Royal Navy discovered in the Torrey Canyon disaster which sent thousands of tons of crude into the English Channel. My friend Giles, one of the Buccaneer pilots who attacked with incendiaries and napalm, told me that the oil certainly burned around the ordnance but "the damn stuff just wouldn't stay alight no matter what we tried". Thanks for your hard work in keeping us in touch with shipping aspects of Trump's disaster.
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BonnieLass
Just for info, oil on water is unwilling to burn as the Royal Navy discovered in the Torrey Canyon disaster which sent thousands of tons of crude into the English Channel. My friend Giles, one of the Buccaneer pilots who attacked with incendiaries and napalm, told me that the oil certainly burned around the ordnance but "the damn stuff just wouldn't stay alight no matter what we tried". Thanks for your hard work in keeping us in touch with shipping aspects of Trump's disaster.
Just for info, oil on water is unwilling to burn as the Royal Navy discovered in the Torrey Canyon disaster which sent thousands of tons of crude into the English Channel. My friend Giles, one of the Buccaneer pilots who attacked with incendiaries and napalm, told me that the oil certainly burned around the ordnance but "the damn stuff just wouldn't stay alight no matter what we tried". Thanks for your hard work in keeping us in touch with shipping aspects of Trump's disaster.
There are various opinions as to the type of oil....is it raw crude from a leak in the oil pipeline to the nearby oil field (it last sprang a leak in late 2024)...is it refined oil or oil product...no-one has managed to identify it or where it came from as yet. It is heading towards Saudi Arabian territorial waters if it remains spreading in the current direction. Whatever type of oil it is and where it originated, it needs urgent dispersal treatment by someone to prevent further damage.
