We (@TheGoodISIS) released a comprehensive study today jam packed with satellite imagery that analyzed all the nuclear related facilities targeted during this 2026 phase of the Iran war.
This is an incredibly important study and really shows the power of open-source intel. We used satellite imagery to assess the damage done to Irans nuclear program.
Let me be clear, Irans program has suffered widespread destruction and devastation. Many facilities related to the research and development process involved in actually building a nuclear weapon (weaponization) have been destroyed or heavily damaged. Scientists have been killed, eliminating their tacit knowledge/know-how that was built up over years of experience and must be relearned and retrained in a new generation of experts.
And other factors occurred, but those are discussed in the report. This is all on too of the fact that Iran does not maintain a uranium enrichment program, which was destroyed in June 2025 (although that could be rebuilt at huge expense).
These new factors will undoubtedly extend the time needed to finish a nuclear weapon and raise the chance of failure if such a decision is taken (which would be incredibly risky for Iran and have no clear guarantee of success).
Ultimately, we found that current IC assessment (as reported by Reuters) that since the June 2025 war, the amount of time the program has been set back by hasn’t changed is a very hard assessment to defend or justify given the facts we outline in the report.
When looking at the scale of the new damage and new sites hit, especially those involved in nuclear weaponization work, it’s its clear that the damage is significant and pushes back the timetable. We would love for the IC to release how they reached their conclusion that it remained the same few month timetable to a bomb.
To be clear, a pathway to a bomb still exists for Iran, we see it now as a very dubious and increasingly challenging pathway.
What worries us still is the status of the enriched uranium stockpiles. As long as the enriched uranium remains within Iran and Iran insists it has a right to enrich uranium and rebuild its destroyed program, a longterm pathway to a nuclear weapon is an option. Iran must give up its enriched uranium stocks and abandon its enrichment program.
Pickaxe Mountain and the status of the newly declared enrichment plant in the tunnel complex at Esfahan adds further worry.
All of this must be dealt with during negotiations, dismantled, and then strictly verified and monitored by the IAEA to ensure no cheating occurs.
P.s. I added some teaser images below.
Read our full COMPREHENSIVE imagery report here: https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis...92124_gzfh.pdf
Last edited by ORAC; 8th May 2026 at 09:21.