Iran
Joined: May 2024
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 955
Likes: 1,008
From: Near SOU
This morning's updates.....including posturing, rejecting, and lots of movement through the Strait of Hormuz
First of all....the good news. Ships are really going for it in the Strait of Hormuz. The last 24 hours has seen at least 20 ships with active AIS make successful transits, chances are there will be several without AIS activated too, in both directions. It isn't the pre-war numbers but it is a start. Ship owners / operators and their crews need to be commended in their pushing back against two argumentative regimes to get trade back in motion. It also needs to be said that the ships are rejecting the route laid out by Iran north of Larak Island, no tolls being paid.
Screenshot taken a few minutes ago
Bearing in mind the risks of undertaking a transit with full AIS, defying Iran on their desired route takes a lot of courage, especially when ships have been targets of aggression.
The anchorages of the Persian Gulf are seeing a lot of movement this morning. Doha has seen ships leaving the anchorages following the attack on Leya. This inevitably means the other anchorages around UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are now more crowded. One cluster of pleasure craft has been growing rapidly off Bahrain, perhaps they intend leaving the Persian Gulf in one big swarm....a bit of bamboozling of the Iranian skiffs, maybe
The anchorages of the Gulf of Oman were in their tight huddles overnight but they are now dispersing back to normality. Lurking in the region is a mixed task force of Naval ships from 44 nationalities, which has not gone down well with the Iranians, they are there to assist in evacuating ships from the Persian Gulf once there are signatures on the dotted line on the bottom of a peace agreement....which currently seems to be subject to a gulf wider than the Strait of Hormuz and unlikely to happen any time soon. Which is probably why the ship owners and operators and their crews are taking matters into their own hands by escaping like herds of mice whilst the cats fight in the corner.
An idea has been hatched to assist with the transit of oil, oil products, gas and other cargoes across Saudi Arabia and UAE, besides the vast network of pipelines currently working. Route 95 that runs from Alkwifiriah in Saudi Arabia close to the Qatari border via Shaybah oil fields to Ramlet Khelah in Oman is being utilised for shipments by road, and trains are being utilised on the Dammam, Jubail, Ras Al Khair, Al Kharj, and Hail routes through to Red Sea ports. Route 85 that follows the path of the defunct Trans Arabian Pipeline from Dammam to Al Hadithah on the Jordanian border is also being utilised, the road had been closed due to the Syrian hostilities but is now back in use and allows for shipments to travel right through to Tartus on the Mediterranean. In relation to sea / land routes to enable shipments to reach European countries and beyond, some of the shipping companies are working hard alongside the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman ports to enable ships to start new routes in both directions by the end of this month. Examples of this include MSC starting routes from Antwerp to Jeddah and King Abdullah Port in the Red Sea return, Hapag-Lloyd are looking to increase their ship routing from European ports to and from Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Muscat and Fujairah. Shipments to Antwerp and other ports such as Rotterdam and Gibraltar will be transferred to other ships and taken where they are needed, including the UK and Scandinavia. It is not going to be at the same capacity of a normally running Strait of Hormuz, be it will help ease things until the Strait is fully reopened.
Finally....and sadly...there is still no news of CMA CGM San Antonio. I have been checking for non AIS shipping arriving at Mundra and she still isn't there yet. Can only hope that the remaining crew are safe and that the ship will show itself eventually.
That's all the updates for now. Will be back tomorrow morning.
First of all....the good news. Ships are really going for it in the Strait of Hormuz. The last 24 hours has seen at least 20 ships with active AIS make successful transits, chances are there will be several without AIS activated too, in both directions. It isn't the pre-war numbers but it is a start. Ship owners / operators and their crews need to be commended in their pushing back against two argumentative regimes to get trade back in motion. It also needs to be said that the ships are rejecting the route laid out by Iran north of Larak Island, no tolls being paid.
Screenshot taken a few minutes ago
Bearing in mind the risks of undertaking a transit with full AIS, defying Iran on their desired route takes a lot of courage, especially when ships have been targets of aggression.
The anchorages of the Persian Gulf are seeing a lot of movement this morning. Doha has seen ships leaving the anchorages following the attack on Leya. This inevitably means the other anchorages around UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are now more crowded. One cluster of pleasure craft has been growing rapidly off Bahrain, perhaps they intend leaving the Persian Gulf in one big swarm....a bit of bamboozling of the Iranian skiffs, maybe
The anchorages of the Gulf of Oman were in their tight huddles overnight but they are now dispersing back to normality. Lurking in the region is a mixed task force of Naval ships from 44 nationalities, which has not gone down well with the Iranians, they are there to assist in evacuating ships from the Persian Gulf once there are signatures on the dotted line on the bottom of a peace agreement....which currently seems to be subject to a gulf wider than the Strait of Hormuz and unlikely to happen any time soon. Which is probably why the ship owners and operators and their crews are taking matters into their own hands by escaping like herds of mice whilst the cats fight in the corner.
An idea has been hatched to assist with the transit of oil, oil products, gas and other cargoes across Saudi Arabia and UAE, besides the vast network of pipelines currently working. Route 95 that runs from Alkwifiriah in Saudi Arabia close to the Qatari border via Shaybah oil fields to Ramlet Khelah in Oman is being utilised for shipments by road, and trains are being utilised on the Dammam, Jubail, Ras Al Khair, Al Kharj, and Hail routes through to Red Sea ports. Route 85 that follows the path of the defunct Trans Arabian Pipeline from Dammam to Al Hadithah on the Jordanian border is also being utilised, the road had been closed due to the Syrian hostilities but is now back in use and allows for shipments to travel right through to Tartus on the Mediterranean. In relation to sea / land routes to enable shipments to reach European countries and beyond, some of the shipping companies are working hard alongside the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman ports to enable ships to start new routes in both directions by the end of this month. Examples of this include MSC starting routes from Antwerp to Jeddah and King Abdullah Port in the Red Sea return, Hapag-Lloyd are looking to increase their ship routing from European ports to and from Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Muscat and Fujairah. Shipments to Antwerp and other ports such as Rotterdam and Gibraltar will be transferred to other ships and taken where they are needed, including the UK and Scandinavia. It is not going to be at the same capacity of a normally running Strait of Hormuz, be it will help ease things until the Strait is fully reopened.
Finally....and sadly...there is still no news of CMA CGM San Antonio. I have been checking for non AIS shipping arriving at Mundra and she still isn't there yet. Can only hope that the remaining crew are safe and that the ship will show itself eventually.
That's all the updates for now. Will be back tomorrow morning.
Joined: May 2024
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 955
Likes: 1,008
From: Near SOU
I just wish to add something that landed in my inbox a few moments ago. The maritime industry collates what is known as The Seafarers Happiness Index every quarter, basically it comes from talking to the crews across a wide variety of ships. Needless to say that Operation Epic Fury has caused problems for crews who are effectively stuck in the region around the Strait of Hormuz. The index goes into some depth about those crewmembers who are dealing with a situation that is not of their making and something they are simply not trained for. It also mentions the shortages such as fresh water to drink, food and medicine supplies and the psychological effects of having drones, missiles and drone boats....the daily thoughts of "will I ever go home".
The full index is some 25 pages long, I have made screenshots of the passages regarding the current situation in the Gulf Region. (Apologies if this takes up too much room, it is easier doing this way than uploading or hyperlinking the entire index and hunting down the passages within it.)
I believe that it is important to see the effect the was with Iran is having on the crewmembers.....something, I am sure will be very similar to the effect on aircrews, groundcrews and others in the civilian aviation industry too who have been operating out of the Gulf Regions many airports during the conflict. Tbh it would be good to see a similar index done for aircrews, groundcrews and others who work in aviation during this conflict, to have the non-combatant aviation workforce get a voice like this.
The full index can be found Seafarers Happiness Index - Quarter 1 - 2026 (Mission to Seafarers)
The full index is some 25 pages long, I have made screenshots of the passages regarding the current situation in the Gulf Region. (Apologies if this takes up too much room, it is easier doing this way than uploading or hyperlinking the entire index and hunting down the passages within it.)
I believe that it is important to see the effect the was with Iran is having on the crewmembers.....something, I am sure will be very similar to the effect on aircrews, groundcrews and others in the civilian aviation industry too who have been operating out of the Gulf Regions many airports during the conflict. Tbh it would be good to see a similar index done for aircrews, groundcrews and others who work in aviation during this conflict, to have the non-combatant aviation workforce get a voice like this.
The full index can be found Seafarers Happiness Index - Quarter 1 - 2026 (Mission to Seafarers)
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 1,470
Likes: 844
From: Here 'n' there!
For no particular reason (maybe being ex-Navy I can empathize with the crews stranded on board the ships?) I've been pondering the way forward for all of this (nope, no ideas tbh) but I can't help the feeling that the reason we are where we are now is that Iran has looked at how "small" Ukraine has faced down "big" Russia, a Russia that has no appropriate response which will lead to a victory for them.
So, based on that, Iran sees a similar setup evolving here with "small" Iran facing down the "big" USA as, just as Russia is finding with Ukraine, to date, the US seemingly has no appropriate response which will lead to a "victory" either. And I see Israel as being "part of the USA" here.
The big difference is that Putin seemingly can afford to sit it out indefinitely as long as he can protect himself from his fellow Russians by hiding in his bunkers. DT, though, has a little thing such as the mid-terms and then on to worry about - and the fact that much of the world is clearly rather bored by DT's antics - something they have made quite clear. There seems to be quite a global feeling of "we'll work together ......... but not with the US/DT" developing.
So ........ maybe the US will finally start to drift away (short attention span in the WH?) and then the "44 nation mixed taskforce" mentioned by BonnieLass at Post #5803 can get on with it. After all, again as BonnieLass mentions in that post, quite a few commercial ships have recently made it through despite the double blockade. So ...................... it seems that even Iran itself sees no value in stopping those ships and, thereby, upsetting a range of countries in the process - but that only works if the US keeps out of it.
And once the "big" USA is completely out the picture, maybe Iran and the rest of the world will decide, despite the dire warnings from people like gums, that the status-quo is the best of what is a range of poor options - certainly in the short/medium term.
Then, once all this has settled down, the world can, once again, try and figure out what to do re Iran's nuclear programme - but maybe not quite as gums suggests - as nice as his approach appears on paper. After all "Epic Fury" seems to have turned into pretty much "Epic Waste-of-Time"!
How that strategy eventually happens we'll have to see but nothing is going to happen until the US changes it's general position and I don't see any "figuring out" of the basic question, Iran's nuclear programme, happening while the present occupant of the WH is about.
Anyway, I guess I can dream on..................................!
So, based on that, Iran sees a similar setup evolving here with "small" Iran facing down the "big" USA as, just as Russia is finding with Ukraine, to date, the US seemingly has no appropriate response which will lead to a "victory" either. And I see Israel as being "part of the USA" here.
The big difference is that Putin seemingly can afford to sit it out indefinitely as long as he can protect himself from his fellow Russians by hiding in his bunkers. DT, though, has a little thing such as the mid-terms and then on to worry about - and the fact that much of the world is clearly rather bored by DT's antics - something they have made quite clear. There seems to be quite a global feeling of "we'll work together ......... but not with the US/DT" developing.
So ........ maybe the US will finally start to drift away (short attention span in the WH?) and then the "44 nation mixed taskforce" mentioned by BonnieLass at Post #5803 can get on with it. After all, again as BonnieLass mentions in that post, quite a few commercial ships have recently made it through despite the double blockade. So ...................... it seems that even Iran itself sees no value in stopping those ships and, thereby, upsetting a range of countries in the process - but that only works if the US keeps out of it.
And once the "big" USA is completely out the picture, maybe Iran and the rest of the world will decide, despite the dire warnings from people like gums, that the status-quo is the best of what is a range of poor options - certainly in the short/medium term.
Then, once all this has settled down, the world can, once again, try and figure out what to do re Iran's nuclear programme - but maybe not quite as gums suggests - as nice as his approach appears on paper. After all "Epic Fury" seems to have turned into pretty much "Epic Waste-of-Time"!
How that strategy eventually happens we'll have to see but nothing is going to happen until the US changes it's general position and I don't see any "figuring out" of the basic question, Iran's nuclear programme, happening while the present occupant of the WH is about.
Anyway, I guess I can dream on..................................!
Joined: Jan 2008
Aviation Qualifications: SLF
Posts: 1,016
Likes: 1,065
From: Australia
<snip>
Then, once all this has settled down, the world can, once again, try and figure out what to do re Iran's nuclear programme - but maybe not quite as gums suggests - as nice as his approach appears on paper. After all "Epic Fury" seems to have turned into pretty much "Epic Waste-of-Time"!
<snip>
Then, once all this has settled down, the world can, once again, try and figure out what to do re Iran's nuclear programme - but maybe not quite as gums suggests - as nice as his approach appears on paper. After all "Epic Fury" seems to have turned into pretty much "Epic Waste-of-Time"!
<snip>
Joined: May 2024
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 955
Likes: 1,008
From: Near SOU
Update on CMA CGM San Antonio
One of her Ukranian crewmembers has taken video aboard her. The damage is extreme, it is actually a miracle that anyone in the vicinity survived.
I totally understand why she has not got an activated AIS. I sincerely hope that the rest of her crew will be safe and that she can be moved to safety asap.
One of her Ukranian crewmembers has taken video aboard her. The damage is extreme, it is actually a miracle that anyone in the vicinity survived.
I totally understand why she has not got an activated AIS. I sincerely hope that the rest of her crew will be safe and that she can be moved to safety asap.
Joined: May 2024
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 955
Likes: 1,008
From: Near SOU
Today's updates........surprise attacks from Saudi Arabia, brave crews still making transits of the Strait of Hormuz and the not so rosy picture of the future for the region
Firstly, the footage from CMA CGM San Antonio answers many questions in relation to why she has not been seen on AIS for 8 days...and why she will never make it to her next port of call, Mundra. I am sure that many here who have been active or are still active with the military side of shipping will have recognised the room that was hit and the level of activity that would normally be happening in there when a ship is underway, it truly was miraculous that no-one in that room was killed. Updates on the three most seriously injured are hard to find, given the damage done, it would be quite possible that they have received life changing injuries. The ship herself is effectively dead in the water. That room is the beating heart of the ship, everything is controlled from that room. I can only hope that those injured will recover and that the rest of her crew will be able to go home, if they are not already at home. It has been confirmed that she was part of the group of ships under the protection of the USN at the time she was hit. Project Freedom was halted soon afterwards.
The Strait of Hormuz is still very active. Around 15 ships have made transit over the past 24 hours, in both directions. The line of Iranian cargo ships from Khasab to Larak / Ramchah has largely been broken. The show of defiance by the ships that have made transit is simply incredible.
This taken a few minutes ago...
The anchorages of Mina Saqr, Ras al Khaimah, Umm al Quwain, Sharjah and Dubai are still busy. The ships are not all using their AIS but there have been no overnight huddles.
The anchorages of Dibba, Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Al Widayyat and Sohar have thinned out, the ports receiving a steady flow of ships before they depart for their various destinations.
There have been no reports via UKMTO of any attacks or suspicious sightings across the region, including Bab-el-Mandab, which is flowing freely.
There was a surprise attack against Iran in late March by Saudi Arabia. It was not reported at the time and only came to light in the last 24 hours. The attacks, along with those from the UAE, were in response to Iranian hostilities. No targets within Iran have been identified by either Saudi Arabia or UAE at this time. Saudi Arabia has also confirmed that they were attacked from Iraq in April, again no details other than the Iraqi ambassador was summoned to Riyadh to explain what was going on and no attacks from Iraqi soil have happened since.
The overland transfer of oil, gas, oil products and other cargoes is continuing via pipeline, road and rail. There are some problems being experienced in that the number of suitable rail rolling stock and trucks is not ideal but they are continuing to do the best that they can to gets supplies to the Red Sea ports, Mediteranean ports and Gulf of Oman ports.
Across the various subscribed maritime news services there is a sense of a not so bright future in relation to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. Several of the CEO's of the main shipping industry players have all stated that they do not anticipate any form of normality to return for at least 9 to 12 months and even then, it will be a very slow recovery towards pre-war levels. AP Moller / Maersk, Evergreen, Torm and many other companies are all very subdued about the future of the region. They all have vessels currently stuck in the Persian Gulf. One operator, Torm, has become very disillusioned by a practice that is affecting their company directly. They recently sold their older tankers, laid out as part of the contract of sale that the ships must not be used for Iranian or Russian shadow fleet. At least 4 of those VLCC's have entered Iran's shadow fleet and are being used to take oil out of the region. Unfortunately there are many shipping operators who have a very disillusioned outlook for the region and some have even come out strongly against the actions of Israel and the US in destabilising the region.
Pakistan and Iraq have been reportedly working with Iran to get Iranian oil and LNG out of the country. Essentially ships carrying oil, oil products, LNG and LPG are being given safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz through arrangements made tween the three countries. Iran is said to be less blocking the Strait and more controlling what passes through the Strait....on their terms. Other countries have also made deals with Iran, which maybe why there has been an increase in transits in the last 48 hours or so. The terms of transit have not been made public but all countries have strenuously stated that no tolls or fees of any kind have been paid. The US and Israel are not party to any of these deals or arrangements. Even with the various deals and arrangements in place, safe passage is still not guaranteed for those ships that run the through the Strait of Hormuz since those deals and arrangements could collapse at any time should hostilities restart.
I shall keep an eye on this and update again tomorrow.
Firstly, the footage from CMA CGM San Antonio answers many questions in relation to why she has not been seen on AIS for 8 days...and why she will never make it to her next port of call, Mundra. I am sure that many here who have been active or are still active with the military side of shipping will have recognised the room that was hit and the level of activity that would normally be happening in there when a ship is underway, it truly was miraculous that no-one in that room was killed. Updates on the three most seriously injured are hard to find, given the damage done, it would be quite possible that they have received life changing injuries. The ship herself is effectively dead in the water. That room is the beating heart of the ship, everything is controlled from that room. I can only hope that those injured will recover and that the rest of her crew will be able to go home, if they are not already at home. It has been confirmed that she was part of the group of ships under the protection of the USN at the time she was hit. Project Freedom was halted soon afterwards.
The Strait of Hormuz is still very active. Around 15 ships have made transit over the past 24 hours, in both directions. The line of Iranian cargo ships from Khasab to Larak / Ramchah has largely been broken. The show of defiance by the ships that have made transit is simply incredible.
This taken a few minutes ago...
The anchorages of Mina Saqr, Ras al Khaimah, Umm al Quwain, Sharjah and Dubai are still busy. The ships are not all using their AIS but there have been no overnight huddles.
The anchorages of Dibba, Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Al Widayyat and Sohar have thinned out, the ports receiving a steady flow of ships before they depart for their various destinations.
There have been no reports via UKMTO of any attacks or suspicious sightings across the region, including Bab-el-Mandab, which is flowing freely.
There was a surprise attack against Iran in late March by Saudi Arabia. It was not reported at the time and only came to light in the last 24 hours. The attacks, along with those from the UAE, were in response to Iranian hostilities. No targets within Iran have been identified by either Saudi Arabia or UAE at this time. Saudi Arabia has also confirmed that they were attacked from Iraq in April, again no details other than the Iraqi ambassador was summoned to Riyadh to explain what was going on and no attacks from Iraqi soil have happened since.
The overland transfer of oil, gas, oil products and other cargoes is continuing via pipeline, road and rail. There are some problems being experienced in that the number of suitable rail rolling stock and trucks is not ideal but they are continuing to do the best that they can to gets supplies to the Red Sea ports, Mediteranean ports and Gulf of Oman ports.
Across the various subscribed maritime news services there is a sense of a not so bright future in relation to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. Several of the CEO's of the main shipping industry players have all stated that they do not anticipate any form of normality to return for at least 9 to 12 months and even then, it will be a very slow recovery towards pre-war levels. AP Moller / Maersk, Evergreen, Torm and many other companies are all very subdued about the future of the region. They all have vessels currently stuck in the Persian Gulf. One operator, Torm, has become very disillusioned by a practice that is affecting their company directly. They recently sold their older tankers, laid out as part of the contract of sale that the ships must not be used for Iranian or Russian shadow fleet. At least 4 of those VLCC's have entered Iran's shadow fleet and are being used to take oil out of the region. Unfortunately there are many shipping operators who have a very disillusioned outlook for the region and some have even come out strongly against the actions of Israel and the US in destabilising the region.
Pakistan and Iraq have been reportedly working with Iran to get Iranian oil and LNG out of the country. Essentially ships carrying oil, oil products, LNG and LPG are being given safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz through arrangements made tween the three countries. Iran is said to be less blocking the Strait and more controlling what passes through the Strait....on their terms. Other countries have also made deals with Iran, which maybe why there has been an increase in transits in the last 48 hours or so. The terms of transit have not been made public but all countries have strenuously stated that no tolls or fees of any kind have been paid. The US and Israel are not party to any of these deals or arrangements. Even with the various deals and arrangements in place, safe passage is still not guaranteed for those ships that run the through the Strait of Hormuz since those deals and arrangements could collapse at any time should hostilities restart.
I shall keep an eye on this and update again tomorrow.
Joined: May 2024
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 955
Likes: 1,008
From: Near SOU
Just a small little extra information that comes via my inbox from various subscribed sources (Tradewinds, OilPrice, and others) a few minutes ago in regard to Iran also using the back door approach.
Just as the Gulf States - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain - are using alternative means to get products into and out of the region, so is Iran.
Obviously with the USN blockading Iranian ports it has become almost impossible to ship anything into or out of Iran by sea and in some cases actual infrastructure has been damaged during hostilities.
Iran has a network of allies and semi allies who are co-ordinating imports and exports, thus allowing trade to continue - albeit in a lower capacity (as per the rest of the region's trade).
Overland connections that are in use are Razi on the border with Turkey, Taftan on the border with Pakistan and a rail freight link from Tehran to China via central Asia. Alternative sea ports include Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea allowing regular transport of goods including oil, oil products and gas and two ports in Pakistan, Gwadar and Karachi.
Contrary to the US claiming a full embargo exists, Iran is sending and receiving trade, including food, medicines, oil, oil products via these routes and has been doing so since hostilities began, and in many cases for many years prior to the current hostilities. Under international law, food and medicines should not be prevented from being delivered to any country, the US has been somewhat coy as to whether their Strait of Hormuz blockade is including shipments of food and medicine. There are strong rumours that Russia is supplying weaponry within shipments via the Caspian Sea, confirmed shipments of foodstuff has occurred and not just from Russia but also Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan into Iran's largest Caspian port of Bandar Anzali. The port itself was subject to Israeli attack in April but not put out of action. The rail link from Tehran to Xi'an and Yiwu in China was completed in 2025 and allows for a relatively high volume of import export trade tween Iran and China, including oil and gas, though as with the other Gulf States, not enough to end the dependency on the Strait of Hormuz and the area's ports.
The USN's blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman is therefore not as tight as they might think it is. There are ways and means for Iran to circumvent that blockade and they are taking full advantage of their friends and neighbours to do just that.
Just as the Gulf States - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain - are using alternative means to get products into and out of the region, so is Iran.
Obviously with the USN blockading Iranian ports it has become almost impossible to ship anything into or out of Iran by sea and in some cases actual infrastructure has been damaged during hostilities.
Iran has a network of allies and semi allies who are co-ordinating imports and exports, thus allowing trade to continue - albeit in a lower capacity (as per the rest of the region's trade).
Overland connections that are in use are Razi on the border with Turkey, Taftan on the border with Pakistan and a rail freight link from Tehran to China via central Asia. Alternative sea ports include Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea allowing regular transport of goods including oil, oil products and gas and two ports in Pakistan, Gwadar and Karachi.
Contrary to the US claiming a full embargo exists, Iran is sending and receiving trade, including food, medicines, oil, oil products via these routes and has been doing so since hostilities began, and in many cases for many years prior to the current hostilities. Under international law, food and medicines should not be prevented from being delivered to any country, the US has been somewhat coy as to whether their Strait of Hormuz blockade is including shipments of food and medicine. There are strong rumours that Russia is supplying weaponry within shipments via the Caspian Sea, confirmed shipments of foodstuff has occurred and not just from Russia but also Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan into Iran's largest Caspian port of Bandar Anzali. The port itself was subject to Israeli attack in April but not put out of action. The rail link from Tehran to Xi'an and Yiwu in China was completed in 2025 and allows for a relatively high volume of import export trade tween Iran and China, including oil and gas, though as with the other Gulf States, not enough to end the dependency on the Strait of Hormuz and the area's ports.
The USN's blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman is therefore not as tight as they might think it is. There are ways and means for Iran to circumvent that blockade and they are taking full advantage of their friends and neighbours to do just that.
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 120
Likes: 9
From: UK
Perhaps some action that we missed in the Mediterranean just south of Spain.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/12/w...o-north-korea?
”The US military has also shown an interest in the area, twice sending a rare and sophisticated “nuke sniffer” aircraft, known as a WC135-R and based in Nebraska, over the scene of the incident since the Ursa Major sank – once on August 28 last year and again on February 6 this year, according to publicly available flight data.
A spokesman for the 55th Wing base in Offutt, Nebraska, Kris Pierce, confirmed the aircraft’s role usually “supports nuclear debris collection and analysis.” He added: “We cannot provide additional details regarding specific flight routing, mission findings, or any partner-related coordination.” Another WC135-R took a relatively similar flightpath 13 months before the Ursa Major sank, suggesting interest in the area may have pre-dated the sinking, or be routine.”
Could this have been intended for Iran?
I did notice unusual activity just south of Cartagena in November, both AWACS and B52 which I could hear passing overhead.
IIRC marine traffic also showed Russian vessel in the area at the time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/12/w...o-north-korea?
”The US military has also shown an interest in the area, twice sending a rare and sophisticated “nuke sniffer” aircraft, known as a WC135-R and based in Nebraska, over the scene of the incident since the Ursa Major sank – once on August 28 last year and again on February 6 this year, according to publicly available flight data.
A spokesman for the 55th Wing base in Offutt, Nebraska, Kris Pierce, confirmed the aircraft’s role usually “supports nuclear debris collection and analysis.” He added: “We cannot provide additional details regarding specific flight routing, mission findings, or any partner-related coordination.” Another WC135-R took a relatively similar flightpath 13 months before the Ursa Major sank, suggesting interest in the area may have pre-dated the sinking, or be routine.”
Could this have been intended for Iran?
I did notice unusual activity just south of Cartagena in November, both AWACS and B52 which I could hear passing overhead.
IIRC marine traffic also showed Russian vessel in the area at the time.
Joined: May 2024
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 955
Likes: 1,008
From: Near SOU
Perhaps some action that we missed in the Mediterranean just south of Spain.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/12/w...o-north-korea?
”The US military has also shown an interest in the area, twice sending a rare and sophisticated “nuke sniffer” aircraft, known as a WC135-R and based in Nebraska, over the scene of the incident since the Ursa Major sank – once on August 28 last year and again on February 6 this year, according to publicly available flight data.
A spokesman for the 55th Wing base in Offutt, Nebraska, Kris Pierce, confirmed the aircraft’s role usually “supports nuclear debris collection and analysis.” He added: “We cannot provide additional details regarding specific flight routing, mission findings, or any partner-related coordination.” Another WC135-R took a relatively similar flightpath 13 months before the Ursa Major sank, suggesting interest in the area may have pre-dated the sinking, or be routine.”
Could this have been intended for Iran?
I did notice unusual activity just south of Cartagena in November, both AWACS and B52 which I could hear passing overhead.
IIRC marine traffic also showed Russian vessel in the area at the time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/12/w...o-north-korea?
”The US military has also shown an interest in the area, twice sending a rare and sophisticated “nuke sniffer” aircraft, known as a WC135-R and based in Nebraska, over the scene of the incident since the Ursa Major sank – once on August 28 last year and again on February 6 this year, according to publicly available flight data.
A spokesman for the 55th Wing base in Offutt, Nebraska, Kris Pierce, confirmed the aircraft’s role usually “supports nuclear debris collection and analysis.” He added: “We cannot provide additional details regarding specific flight routing, mission findings, or any partner-related coordination.” Another WC135-R took a relatively similar flightpath 13 months before the Ursa Major sank, suggesting interest in the area may have pre-dated the sinking, or be routine.”
Could this have been intended for Iran?
I did notice unusual activity just south of Cartagena in November, both AWACS and B52 which I could hear passing overhead.
IIRC marine traffic also showed Russian vessel in the area at the time.
Russian ship that sank near Spain in 2024 may have carried nuclear reactor parts (AP News - May 13, 2026)
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From: Montana
One would think that if movements of vessels, trucks, trains, planes and whatever else, into and out of Iran is able to be seen by the internet that the US Military and CIA has seen it also.
I would suggest that US Intelligence can see very much more than the public can see.
I would suggest that US Intelligence can see very much more than the public can see.
Last edited by Hangarless; 13th May 2026 at 13:46.
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From: UK
I suspect that the activity is due to this slightly odd occurrence that happened in December 2024. A ship sank in dubious circumstances and is now said to have been carrying nuclear reactor parts for submarines from St Petersburg to Vladivostok
Russian ship that sank near Spain in 2024 may have carried nuclear reactor parts (AP News - May 13, 2026)
Russian ship that sank near Spain in 2024 may have carried nuclear reactor parts (AP News - May 13, 2026)
Interesting that activity is still ongoing.
Not the first time that the Cartagena area has had issues with USA nuclear “fall”. IIRC there is still an area fenced off. It could explain current ES issues about overflight.
https://outrider.org/nuclear-weapons...uclear-weapons
Last edited by BillS; 13th May 2026 at 13:50. Reason: Added link
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From: Near SOU
One would think that if movements of vessels, trucks, trains, planes and whatever else, into and out of Iran is able to be seen by the internet that the US Military and CIA has seen them it also.
I would suggest that US Intelligence can see very much more than the public can see.
I would suggest that US Intelligence can see very much more than the public can see.
At the end of the day, Iran has as much right to obtain food, medicine, weaponry and anything else that it needs and if that cannot be done via the front door - ie Persian Gulf ports, Strait of Hormuz and Omani Gulf ports, then the land side will do just as well, even better if you have access to an inland sea with friendly neighbours.
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From: Montana
The potential for supplying Iran from China will likely be on the list for discussion whilst Trump is in China this week.....not that I suspect president Xi will openly admit to weapons supplies, of course. He and Putin both have an interest to supply those, in return for something they want that Iran has or produces, no doubt. The Chinese freight rail line was completed at the right time to be useful to Iran......it is also an ideal way to temporarily remove certain materials so that they cannot be found by the US.
At the end of the day, Iran has as much right to obtain food, medicine, weaponry and anything else that it needs and if that cannot be done via the front door - ie Persian Gulf ports, Strait of Hormuz and Omani Gulf ports, then the land side will do just as well, even better if you have access to an inland sea with friendly neighbours.
At the end of the day, Iran has as much right to obtain food, medicine, weaponry and anything else that it needs and if that cannot be done via the front door - ie Persian Gulf ports, Strait of Hormuz and Omani Gulf ports, then the land side will do just as well, even better if you have access to an inland sea with friendly neighbours.
The US have also clearly shown everyone that they can also disable any vessel that they choose to.
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In Trump's dream that started the war, Iran surrendered immediately and there were no consequences to be considered.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Presumably supporting non-squawking Typhoons.
https://x.com/ArmchairAdml/status/20...718870430?s=20
RAF Royal Air Force
Airbus KC.2 Voyager 5x
#43C6FB ZZ338 - ASCOT 9900
#43C700 ZZ343 - ASCOT 9901
#43C6F4 ZZ331 - ASCOT 9902
#43C6F7 ZZ334 - ASCOT 9903
#43C6FB ZZ338 - ASCOT 9904
There have now been 5 RAF Voyager flights supporting a Close Air Support (CAP) operation in the Red Sea as Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon passes Yemen and prepares to transit the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
There are 4 Voyagers in Cyprus, with ZZ338 having now conducted two flights.
RAF Royal Air Force
Airbus KC.2 Voyager 5x
#43C6FB ZZ338 - ASCOT 9900
#43C700 ZZ343 - ASCOT 9901
#43C6F4 ZZ331 - ASCOT 9902
#43C6F7 ZZ334 - ASCOT 9903
#43C6FB ZZ338 - ASCOT 9904
There have now been 5 RAF Voyager flights supporting a Close Air Support (CAP) operation in the Red Sea as Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon passes Yemen and prepares to transit the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
There are 4 Voyagers in Cyprus, with ZZ338 having now conducted two flights.
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From: PLanet Earth
Do you really have the impression that the consequences we have been and are seeing currently were properly taken into consideration upfront including conception of mitigation strategies?!
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From: florida
If anyone here that is commenting on U.S. war planning has verified notes, calls, correspondence, actual war plans...HOORAY..
PLZ let we proles in on the inside story.
Correspondence between the U.S. DoW, State Dept, and UN Ambassador to Security Council, and planning decisions discussed with Israel will be fascinating reading, ya think? PLZ publish ASAP!
Gums sends...
PLZ let we proles in on the inside story.
Correspondence between the U.S. DoW, State Dept, and UN Ambassador to Security Council, and planning decisions discussed with Israel will be fascinating reading, ya think? PLZ publish ASAP!
Gums sends...