Iran

[Not_a_boffin]

Originally Posted by Bob Viking

It is absolutely inconceivable that military planners and intelligence didn’t highlight the closure of the Strait as a direct and immediate consequence of the war. I suspect they were just roundly ignored and have since had to toe the party line when questioned.

BV

You're quite right. Poorly phrased on my part.

If the leadership deliberately removed those elements from the target list for "reasons" then absolutely on them.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Bob Viking

It is absolutely inconceivable that military planners and intelligence didn’t highlight the closure of the Strait as a direct and immediate consequence of the war. I suspect they were just roundly ignored and have since had to toe the party line when questioned.

Most likely the case.

Originally Posted by BonnieLass

Didn't Hegseth / Rubio say it was finished yesterday?

They have not been singing from the same sheet of music for a couple of weeks, why do you think they would start now? The inconsistent messaging has been a feature of this military operation since its beginning.

[BonnieLass]

Whilst wandering around the region, I keep seeing these craft, so far seen around a dozen or so over the last week,...they are all Iranian, coming from Iranian ports. Most stay within the confines of the Strait of Hormuz.

This one, Aramis Net2 94, is lurking around the area that the USN is said to be. Listed as a WIG (wing in grnd) they are infact ekranoplan.




She is not far from where Touska was seized (Touska being the containership that the USN damaged the engineroom a few days ago). Touska's crew have now been repatriated home to Iran via handlers in Pakistan, a small, said to be 7 or 8 people, essential crew remain onboard her and Pakistan are negotiating her return to the Iranians, obviously she will require towage since her engines are disabled.

[ORAC]

Whilst wandering around the region, I keep seeing these craft, so far seen around a dozen or so over the last week,...they are all Iranian, coming from Iranian ports. Most stay within the confines of the Strait of Hormuz.

This one, Aramis Net2 94, is lurking around the area that the USN is said to be. Listed as a WIG (wing in grnd) they are infact ekranoplan.

You Tube

[BonnieLass]

Originally Posted by ORAC

https://youtu.be/JN-RnB9et6A?si=9u_jTXb3fmhMHSmI

ORAC it is a good job that the Iranians never got their hands on the Lun ekranoplan...currently abandoned on the shores of the Caspian

[Winemaker]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Most likely the case.

They have not been singing from the same sheet of music for a couple of weeks now, why do you think they would start now? The inconsistent messaging has been a feature of this military operation since its beginning.

Exactly. Here's a good analysis/discussion of what's happened and the consequences.

You Tube

[BonnieLass]

There is some movement on all anchorages, it is dusk in the region currently - 1749 local time.

Ships are once again being herded into tight groups by Iranian tugs, ekanoplan and "unspecified" craft, each of the groups also appears to be outside territorial waters. One such group is about 15 to 20 miles offshore from Dibba. It has a mixture of ships and one stands out...CMA CGM Aquila. She left Dubai at around the same time as CMA CGM San Antonio. I still have not found CMA CGM San Antonio. The CMA CGM have confirmed that she was hit yesterday and they have confirmed that several of her crew were injured and are now receiving medical care off the ship. They are not confirming the extent of the damage done, whether she is disabled or where she is, we do know that she was fully laden with containers.

Two images....one close up of the group of ships. The light blue arrows / spots are Iranian ekranoplan or tugs. The second image is the same group but giving the proximity with Dibba.

[BonnieLass]

Another collection of ships, again herded by Iranian craft, are some way off Ras al Khaimah. Included in this group is HMM Namu. She suffered a fire and explosion that has left her disabled on May 4, 2026. The South Korean owners are said to be arranging a tow into Jebel Ali, though that is not confirmed as yet.

[BonnieLass]

Not sure if anyone has seen these before but this is Larak Island and whereabouts of important (and in some cases disputed) Iranian positions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Images enlarged courtesy of The IRGC's Positions on Larak Overlook the "Tehran Tollbooth" Route (Marine Executive - May5, 2026)

The write up is actually an interesting read.

[Wyntor]

It does have a feel of the US flailing around trying to find a way to disengage - any way to disengage.

I feel that the one page MoU is going to look so bad and get panned so badly in the media that the admistration may flip flop again and return to kinetic ops.

It must be a tough play for the scenario planners at CENTCOM with no consistency of mission direction at the political level. Goodness knows what morale is like among the people who are in harms way while this plays out.

[BonnieLass]

Originally Posted by Wyntor

It does have a feel of the US flailing around trying to find a way to disengage - any way to disengage.

I feel that the one page MoU is going to look so bad and get panned so badly in the media that the admistration may flip flop again and return to kinetic ops.

It must be a tough play for the scenario planners at CENTCOM with no consistency of mission direction at the political level. Goodness knows what morale is like among the people who are in harms way while this plays out.

This was recorded a couple of weeks ago, this Captain is still stuck currently. It gives a good idea on how things are for the crew aboard the ships that cannot leave the Persian Gulf....

You Tube

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Wyntor

I feel that the one page MoU is going to look so bad and get panned so badly in the media that the admistration may flip flop again and return to kinetic ops.

He did mention that in the TS blurb quoted a few posts up form yours: "If the don't agree, the bombing starts..."
Yes, the CENTCOM planners are probably in the stunned mullet mode at this point.
The most commonly asked question is probably: "OK, they want what, now?"

[GlobalNav]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

He did mention that in the TS blurb quoted a few posts up form yours: "If the don't agree, the bombing starts..."
Yes, the CENTCOM planners are probably in the stunned mullet mode at this point.
The most commonly asked question is probably: "OK, they want what, now?"

It’s a bit surprising the IRGC hasn’t sought Vlad’s advice on how to get everything they want from the mob boss.

[West Coast]

https://www.twz.com/news-features/f-...zfiMFjSfBp7N8g

Some damn fine shooting.

[Bfah]

With all these ships grouping up, with no one seemingly to know why or what the purpose is - I wonder why no one is listening to the Ships radios

I mean VHF Marine Ch16 (Emergency/Hailing), Ch9 backup Hailing. Ch10 Weather, Ch13 Bridge to Bridge, Ch68-72 General chat.
Maybe Ch13 Bridge to Bridge would have been used by the individual ships captains to 'get together'.

Not hard to listen in...!

And I still haven't seen photo's/video's of all of these nasty mines... Wonder why...

[AirScotia]

If the world still exists in five years' time, the books written by retired US miitary will be must-reads.

[AirScotia]

Originally Posted by BonnieLass

Not sure if anyone has seen these before but this is Larak Island and whereabouts of important (and in some cases disputed) Iranian positions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Images enlarged courtesy of The IRGC's Positions on Larak Overlook the "Tehran Tollbooth" Route (Marine Executive - May5, 2026)

The write up is actually an interesting read.

It is indeed an interesting read, BonnieLass . If the Iranians managed to resupply during the pauses, presumably the US was able to observe what and where? How hard would it be just to concentrate firepower on suspect sites?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by West Coast

https://www.twz.com/news-features/f-...zfiMFjSfBp7N8g

Some damn fine shooting.

Reporter: You are facing an opponent in Iran that has refused to submit.
Trump: Why do you say they refuse to submit? You don’t know that.
Reporter: They fired at U.S. ships a few days ago.
Trump: A few days ago is a long time ago. They want to make a deal badly.

Well, golly, if they are really after a bad deal, they have the right man for the job in the WH!

The agent is also correct, "a few days ago is" indeed "a long time ago" when it comes to which version of events has precedence.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Maybe someone could elucidate what possible differences there could between a one page agreement which is being negotiated currently on Iran’s terms, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated by the US, UK, Russia, China, France plus Germany, with Iran in 2015?

Operation Epic Stupidity rolls on.

[fdr]

candles

Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer

Maybe someone could elucidate what possible differences there could between a one page agreement which is being negotiated currently on Iran’s terms, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated by the US, UK, Russia, China, France plus Germany, with Iran in 2015?

Operation Epic Stupidity rolls on.

CS, thats easy.

Herewith is the plan from the current players

Spoiler

 

 

Page 1

INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK



Page 2

REFER PRIOR PAGE


and here is the original framework of the JCPOA

Spoiler

 

 

Key Requirements and Actions Mandated by the JCPOA

Enrichment

• For 10 years operating centrifuges reduced to 5,060 IR-1 machines, total machines is 6,104 IR-1s
• Excess centrifuges (over 13,000) dismantled and stored under IAEA monitoring
• For 15 years level of uranium enrichment capped at 3.67 percent uranium-235
• For 15 years enrichment only at Natanz
• For 10 years no production of additional IR-1 centrifuges
• Between years 11-13 Iran can replace IR-1s with the equivalent capacity of IR-6 and IR-8 machines and limits lasting to years 14-15

Uranium Stockpile

• For 15 years the stockpile is kept under 300 kilograms of 3.67 percent enriched uranium in total (all forms)
• Excess enriched uranium sold, shipped abroad for storage, or diluted to natural uranium levels
• Uranium oxide and scrap material enriched up to 20 percent fabricated into fuel for Tehran Research Reactor, blended down, or shipped out

Fordow

• Converted to research facility for stable isotope production with Russian cooperation
• 1,044 IR-1 centrifuges in six cascades will remain here, 328 for production, the remaining 700 are idle
• For 15 years no introduction of uranium at the facility

Advanced Centrifuge Research and Development

• For 8.5 years Iran may conduct research with uranium on a single IR-4, IR-5, IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuge at Natanz
• After 8.5 years test up to 30 IR-6s and 30 IR-8s
• After 8 years manufacture up to 200 IR-6s and 200 IR-8s centrifuges without rotors
• For 10 years Joint Commission review and approval of changes to the research and development plan

Arak Reactor

• Remove and disable the original core of the Arak reactor
• Replace the core of the Arak reactor to reduce weapons-grade plutonium output, certified by the Joint Commission
• For 15 years no reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel with an intention to never reprocess
• Permanent commitment to ship out spent nuclear fuel
• For 15 years no heavy-water reactors in Iran
• For 15 years no accumulation of heavy water in Iran
• Construction of hot cells or shielded glove boxes of certain specifications subject to approval of the Joint Commission

Monitoring and Verification

• By 15 October 2015 Iran fully implements PMD “roadmap” agreed with IAEA
• For 10 years approval of the purchase of dual-use materials by the Joint Commission working group
• For 25 years continuous monitoring of lran’s uranium mines and mills
• For 20 years continuous monitoring of lran’s centrifuge production facilities
• For 15 years Joint Commission oversight of IAEA access requests to inspect undeclared sites
• Permanent prohibition of certain weaponization-related activities
• Implementation and eventual ratification of an additional protocol to Iran’s safeguards agreement
• Permanent implementation of modified Code 3.1 of the Subsidiary Arrangements to its Safeguards Agreement

Joint Commission

• For 25 years Joint Commission (composed of P5+1, EU and Iran for a total of 8 voting members) will hold quarterly meetings, or by request, to oversee the deal
• Dispute resolution mechanism within 35 days; 15-day dispute resolution mechanism within the Joint Commission, with optional 15-day ministerial review and/or arbitration opinion from a 3-member panel, followed by 5-day review of the arbitration opinion. If there is no resolution and the complaining party sees the action as “significant non-performance,’ the unresolved issue can be treated as grounds to cease performing commitments in whole or part, complaining party will notify UN Security Council
• Any party can go to the UN Security Council to put sanctions back in place if there is noncompliance by vetoing a resolution calling for the continuance of sanctions

UN Sanctions

• UNSC resolution 2231 endorsing JCPOA outlines termination of all previous resolutions targeting lran’s nuclear program — 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), 1929 (2010) —on implementation day.
• For 10 years sanctions are subject to snapback by veto of a resolution calling for the continuation of suspension
• After 10 years UN will cease to be seized of Iran’s nuclear file
• For 5 years the heavy arms embargo will remain in place
• For 8 years the ballistic missile restrictions will remain in place

U.S. Sanctions

• Cease the application of economic sanctions against lran’s oil and banking sector allowing Iranian banks and companies to reconnect with international systems
• Will remove designation of certain entities and individuals
• Allows for licensed non-U.S. entities that are owned or controlled by a U.S. person to engage in activities with lran permitted under JCPOA
• Allows for the sale of commercial passenger aircraft to Iran
• Allows for license for importing Iranian-origin carpets and foodstuffs into United States
• United States takes appropriate measures to address laws at state or local level preventing full implementation of JCPOA - United States will actively encourage officials to adhere to JCPOA policy
• For 8 years after Adoption date, or sooner if IAEA concludes that all nuclear activity in Iran remains peaceful, U.S. will seek legislative action to terminate/modify nuclear related sanctions
• U.S. sanctions on Iran targeting human rights, terrorism and missile activities remain
• United States can impose additional sanctions for non-nuclear issues (terrorism, human rights, etc.)

EU Sanctions

• Terminate all provisions of the EU Regulation related to Iran’s nuclear program
• Includes: financial and banking transactions; transactions in Iranian Rial; provision of U.S. banknotes to Iranian government; access to SWIFT; insurance services; efforts to reduce Iran's crude oil and petrochemical product sales; investment; transactions with Iran's energy and shipping sector; trade in gold and other precious metals; trade with lran’s automotive sector
• Removes individuals and entities designated under sanctions
• EU refrains from re-introducing sanctions terminated under JCPOA (Iran views any re-introduction as grounds to cease performing its commitments)
• Refrain from policy intended to adversely affect normalization of economic relations with Iran
• For 8 years after adoption day or at the finding of the IAEA broader conclusion EU's arms embargo and restrictions on transfer of ballistic missiles remain


See, easy. The beauty of the current version is it kind of has a Shakespearian aura...

Spoiler

 

 

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.