Iran

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by Ninthace

Over the horizon?

A USMC core competency.

[albatross]

Sal’s synopsis of Maritime Matters in the Persian Gulf over the last 3 weeks.

You Tube

[gums]

Shades of anchors in my brain.... tanker anchors, airborne tankers...red, white and blue anchor orbits over Laos, a hundred of we mudbeaters, Migcap, chaff birds and Weasels topping off and then heading north...maybe 15 minutes until party time. First Weasels and sweep birds coming back for egress gas, those things are always low and gas, heh. Quite a sight that clear sunny December day, 1972.
But checks to do, peak at the map on my knee, check stations and select, and then set release interval/spacing. No Master arm or mode yet, wait until over the fence. Wife asks if the wings were good. I grab the half empty beer. ohhhhh....
So right now, tonight at 2343 zulu, I see the tankers in their orbits over Saudi and a P-8 just dropping off of a KC-46. Must be a mini-AWACS huh? No lights or buffs squawking, hmm. I wish them well and good ride home after their drop.
So eerie for me,the scene couldn't be 54 years ago, could it?

Gums recalls...

[artee]

Originally Posted by Steepclimb

I believe you are wrong. With due respect.
Honestly I think the western media has got themselves over excited by the whole situation. Yes Trump jumped in with bad advice from his bumbling administration.

But in reality even the most optimistic Iranian leader knows he has a target on his back. They're losing and they know it.

I see this as history.

Obviously this will become history, whatever the rights & wrongs, whatever the outcome.

[Undertow]

Next target

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...69822349947644

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

[galaxy flyer]

Why they haven’t turned out the lights yet is a mystery to me.

[Winemaker]

Originally Posted by Undertow

Next target

So we condemn Russia for attacking Ukrainian electrical infrastructure but threaten to do the same to Iran in a war of choice?

[fdr]

The maritime threat is one of the potential losses of the merchant vessels, and of the obvious risk to the defending naval assets which are by far more valuable than any VLCC + cargo. A CVN just adds additional opportunity to the other team. The problem is, the rounds inbound such as Shaheeds etc are a fraction of the costs of the harm they can inflict on the screening fleet.

Seems to me there is a good case for RIBs with a few stabilised M134s and same for some .50 cals, as everything goes better with a 50. Intermediate range threats such as 155's are a counter battery target, but today, that needs to be done by standoff, or loitering munitions operating up to the limit range of the 155s with base bleed.

Russia providing intel to Iran places Vlad the bestie of the WH in a problematic status, perhaps the US should give Russia a stern warning, but Alaska would be more likely to be on the menu. I guess it only matters if the WH actually cares for the troops that appear to be getting marching orders to go and do glorious stuff for the supreme being, while Russia is being gifted a windfall while assisting Iran to kill US servicepersons. Not something you would have expected in the past, so that is apparently what progress looks like.

[judyjudy]

I keep thinking of Tom Leher’s “Send the Marines”
Still relevant 60+ years later

[West Coast]

Seems to me there is a good case for RIBs with a few stabilised M134s and same for some .50 cals, as everything goes better with a 50. Intermediate range threats such as 155's are a counter battery target, but today, that needs to be done by standoff, or loitering munitions operating up to the limit range of the 155s with base bleed.

Who would they be a threat to?

I do love a 50 shoot, it’s a great fall sport as money has to be spent before the next fiscal year.

[nonsense]

Originally Posted by judyjudy

I keep thinking of Tom Leher’s “Send the Marines”
Still relevant 60+ years later

We seem to be mostly old enough to be familiar with Tom Lehrer, but a link for anyone who isn't.

[ORAC]

Reference the threat to wipe out Iran’s power stations.

Well Trump and Putin might not know attacking civilian energy infrastructure except when it is being used for a military purpose is against International Humanitarian Law, and the DoD Law of War manual , but the USAF should do.

It will be interesting to see what happens and if fine words are overtaken by “I was just obeying orders”

How does IHL protect energy infrastructure?

Pieces of energy infrastructure that form part of an energy system enabling the provision of essential services to civilians are in principle civilian objects, and as such are protected against direct attack and reprisals as well as incidental harm. Insofar as they are normally dedicated to civilian purposes, they benefit from a presumption of civilian status. This means that in case of doubt whether a piece of infrastructure is being used to make an effective contribution to military action, that object must be presumed to be civilian.

Beyond attacks, the obligation of parties to armed conflict to take constant care to spare the civilian population, civilians and civilian objects in all military operations is of particular importance when it comes to the protection of energy infrastructure. Parties need to exercise heightened caution when conducting troop movements, maneuvers, and other military activities and when taking up positions in the vicinity of such objects. This requires, e.g., doing everything feasible to understand how different essential systems are interconnected and to identify the most vulnerable pieces of energy infrastructure (at ground, above and below ground level), in order to avoid damaging or putting these at risk….

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by West Coast

A USMC core competency.

I await developments with interest and curiosity then if the operation is launched and sustained from the Arabian Sea. That will require trivia like consent to over fly other nations’ sovereign territory.

[artee]

Ineteresting article about the use of the much un-loved Enterprise class LCS in Operation Epic Fury. 2 for minehunting duties, 1 as a launch pad for Lucas drones (the US reverse engineered Shahed drones).

A fairly suspect, probably AI, created narration, but lots of good information.

You Tube

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Well Trump and Putin might not know attacking civilian energy infrastructure except when it is being used for a military purpose is against International Humanitarian Law, and the DoD Law of War manual , but the USAF should do.

And presumably any nation that allowed such attacks to operate from its airfields would be complicit in a war crime ...

[ORAC]

Looks like they got the bomb dump……

Video

https://x.com/airpowernew1/status/20...249134785?s=61

​​​​​​​'Bombing of the Fourth Fighter Base Dezful, Saturday Morning'.

Received video with message: 'There were 6 explosions. The first 5 were very heavy.'

Saturday, Farvardin 1, Iran from second 0:20

[EDLB]

I doubt that the USA will swallow 6 digit body bags coming home. You will fight an Russia Ukraine style drone war with 10km+ kill zones in an mountainous terrain against a trained military which fought a 8 year war against Iraq with 500k casualties. Afghanistan would have been easy in comparison. How did this work out after trillions spent. This is utter madness. You will alienate even the most regime change friendly persons there. In the meantime the Strait will be closed for years.
Can you guarantee that over time China and Russia will not support Iran with technology and intelligence in drones, rockets, quiet underwater drones which reach CVNs undetected, nukes, and real time satellite intelligence? This is not Afghanistan where the threats are mainly IEDs and small arms fire.

[Cornish Jack]

Could any of our experts explain why the news of the Diego Garcia attack attempt and the possible threat to London was notified to the world by Israel ? Do we, Brits, not have area threat coverage for such an important base ? Are our military planners unable to make such assessments on our behalf ?

[[email protected]]

This much vaunted regime change cannot happen without a serious number of boots on the ground since all the weapons are in the hands of the regime.

A ground offensive will be fraught with difficulties, dangers and high body counts.

Even if such change could be achieved, what will be the cost of rebuilding the country and who will pay for that?

What has the war cost the US already, both in terms of hard cash and ruined alliances?

Suppose a naval escort starts to work in the SoH, the Iranians only have to get lucky once and the waterway is both blocked and polluted with oil.

There is a way out but it involves actual diplomacy (difficult with the low level of trust in the US this year) but it could be done - perhaps Trump could employ Obama as a trustworthy ambassador and negotiator?

The military solution just isn't going to work, just like it didn't in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan but, just as when those were live events, the politicians and their advisors are more worried about votes at home and losing face so continued threats and bombing will continue until finally realisation dawns in the cold light of day.

[Brewster Buffalo]

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK

And presumably any nation that allowed such attacks to operate from its airfields would be complicit in a war crime ...

Is the UK the only European nation from which USAF combat operations are taking place?