Iran

[West Coast]

https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iran...om-1.500480569

Scratch one missile factory.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Less Hair

Do you suggest a land war?

2 ARG's heading to the gulf, 48 hour mobilisation order issue to the majority of the 82nd airborne (16K men) you take a guess

[ORAC]

An IRBM or ICBM without precision guidance and conventional ammunition is a waste of resources. To hit and destroy a bomber or other valuable target without terminal guidance of some kind, like lighting the traget with a laser is less likely than a hole in one in golf. The real danger comes when Iran develops working precision guidance systems.

The intent and the consequences can be political as well as military.

An IRBM impacting in the centre of London would have earth shattering political consequences and ramifications, both for the government and for the MOD.

[Hot 'n' High]

Originally Posted by Ronald Reagan

The objective needs to be remove the regime from power. Once it is gone there won't be a nuclear programme or long range missile programme to worry about. ................... I wonder why it is the regime has such support, my Iranian friends often ask me the same question.

You raise a very good point RR. Speaking for myself, I don't support the regime in the slightest at all.

I once taught an Iranian guy to fly. His family had left Iran when the Shah of Iran was deposed. We've lost touch since I taught him but he and his family (this was in the early 2000's) were quite at a loss as to how Iran could ever be recovered given the nature of the hold the regime had even back then, a hold which has only grown stronger.

The issue is how do you remove such a regime which has had time to watch what happened in the other places you mention where regime changes took place and, undoubtedly, saw where the weaknesses in those regimes were and have worked to ensure they don't have the same weaknesses.

As was highlighted some while back in this very Thread, the whole defensive structure set up by the regime is designed to spread the threat to any attacking forces far and wide, make a few surgical strikes pointless. And the ability for them to strike within the ME quite easily, and the chaos that will cause, is a card they play very well. They've thought this through very carefully over many years - they are not fools!

I suspect that this is why others have not rushed in to join the US here. We don't believe that this is a "winnable" war as it stands. Now, what the solution is ......... well, that's the $1M question. I really don't think anyone knows!

Anyway, just my thoughts!

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by rattman

2 ARG's heading to the gulf, 48 hour mobilisation order issue to the majority of the 82nd airborne (16K men) you take a guess

If Trump moves against Kharg, it seems a given the Iranians will retaliate big time against the Gulf states' key O&G infrastructure. Thursday will seem like a quiet day in comparison.

[T28B]

As neither Mod nor Admin, I saw some interesting numbers in the link provided by West Coast

Cumulative Iran ballistic missile launches since February 28:
~1,100–1,700 (exact total varies by source due to ongoing low-volume fire)
Peak: 400–500+ on Day 1
Collapse: 86–94% by early March (down to single digits/low teens per day by mid-March).
Harassment-level capability
Military analysts assess that, based on the declining number of launches, Iran may now be operating at a “harassment-level” capability, with only sporadic single- or low double-digit missile strikes per day. The main constraint appears to be its launcher fleet.

Depending upon what targets they are launching their missiles against, they may only need a few to land on target.

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by rattman

2 ARG's heading to the gulf, 48 hour mobilisation order issue to the majority of the 82nd airborne (16K men) you take a guess

What would the likely objective be? I have seen talk of Kharg Island but getting the group through the Strait may not be without incident.

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by Ninthace

What would the likely objective be? I have seen talk of Kharg Island but getting the group through the Strait may not be without incident.

OTH....

[Wyntor]

Originally Posted by West Coast

OTH....

I would have though Qeshm, the Tunbs and other islands that would provide platforms to dominate the Strait and afford forward screen against drones anti ship missiles --- like ships just made of rock and fairly stationary.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/...192030764?s=20

​​​​​​​Iranian state TV says it targeted Israel’s Dimona nuclear plant tonight in response to this morning’s strike on Natanz nuclear facility.

The missile appears to have missed and hit a neighborhood.

​​​​​​​

[Arcanum]

Similarly, were the US to declare "victory" or whatever and set off back to the US and tell Israel to "cease and desist", the things that are really upsetting Iran simply disappear and "bingo" - the War ends. Quietly, the rest of the world can then try and sort out the mess we currently have as Iran won't be trying to sink ships in the Straits of Hormuz and the US will be too busy as it "celebrates" a "Grand Victory" - or whatever - on the streets of Washington.

It's not in Iran's interest to end the war under those conditions. The U.S. or Israeli's can come back whenever they like and hit missile factories or nuclear sites, and Iran's still under sanctions with a destroyed economy without the capital to rebuild. You can say they should have thought of that, or it serves them right. But that ignores the incredibly strong hand they have.

Instead, Iran will continue to blockade Hormuz until they force an agreement which provides sanctions relief, and the GCC make some kind of agreement to prevent Israel / U.S. attacking again. Likely a quiet back-channel demand for reparations, too, which will get covered by the GCC.

Time is on the side of Iran here, not anyone else. The economic dislocation of the last three weeks is now massive, and it's been surprising that western governments have kept a lid on how bad things are going to get. Silly stories about 50mph speed limits and some rationing in the UK are a distraction. Even if the war ends tomorrow, oil and gas facilities don't just restart instantly. Tankers - both oil and gas - are not in the right places around the world. Similar story for fertilisers. Soon, tankers and ships will be really dislocated. The ones that are currently reaching ports in Asia and Europe, do they turn around or wait? How long does the O&G restart take? How long before the U.S. verifies that Hormuz has not been mined, or the mines dealt with, to allow normal traffic levels to resume? Oil, gas and fertiliser prices will take many, many months to get back to pre-war levels.

The economic impact is felt in food supply and prices, as well as energy prices. With central banks being torn between putting up interest rates to counter inflation, at the same time as the multi-trillion dollar private credit market is showing extreme signs of stress, with contagion to the main banking system. And this is going on even if the war stops today. It's far worse than it seems.

Iran is the size of Alaska. We see planes going down in the deserts and jungles across the world which disappear for years despite extensive searches. Are the U.S. going to be able to locate every missile and drone launcher sooner than the economic pain becomes unbearable? Which is really only another 2-3 weeks. I doubt it.

A tactic of ratcheting up the pain for Iran, such as attacking their oil fields, will cause Iran to do the same to their neighbours. Out of five missiles fired into Qatar's main field, one got through and shut off 15-20% production for 2-5 years. No one can afford more O&G going offline in that region of the world.

Navies from the U.K./Europe/Japan/Australia getting into this mix solves nothing. It prolongs the economic pain, and the fallout is going to hit the U.K./Europe/Japan/Australia/NZ and Asia hardest. Africa, too, due to food prices. In the unlikely event some of these countries should choose to get involved with their Navy's, they should take a leaf out of Trump's transactional book and demand significant payment for the work. A few billion £'s/Euro's month from protecting conveys can soften the blow of economies back home and the cost of the military operation. Of course, this cost will just be added to the price of oil/gas/fertiliser, but that's someone else's problem, not the countries providing the ships. I'm surprised Trump hasn't already indicated that he'll leave unless paid by the GCC.

The problem is the chasm between what Iran, Israel and the U.S. all need to end the war. It needs serious, good faith, rapid negotiations. There's a massive shortage of that in all the main parties to the conflict.

[larssnowpharter]

Interesting that the estimated number of anti-ship missiles remaining is substantial. No doubt this adds to the threat in the SoH.

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by Arcanum

I
Time is on the side of Iran here, not anyone else. The economic dislocation of the last three weeks is now massive, and it's been surprising that western governments have kept a lid on how bad things are going to get. Silly stories about 50mph speed limits and some rationing in the UK are a distraction.

The economic impact is felt in food supply and prices, as well as energy prices. With central banks being torn between putting up interest rates other than counter inflation, at the same time as the multi-trillion dollar private credit market is showing extreme signs of stress, with contagion to the main banking system. And this is going on even if the war stops today. It's far worse than it seems.

Absolutely. Among my various circles of friends and acquaintances there is no sign that they are beginning to think beyond fuel going up a little at the pumps.
Just wait until the government says "no need to panic buy!".

My QM expert dear wife is organising a years-worth of consumables, and with an eye to interruptions in power supply. Fortunately we have good storage facilities. Red wine by the case.
And yes: It's far worse than it seems.

[El Grifo]

Could have sworn I got a Pprune notification of this, then it vanished.
Is it up somewhere
Cannot locate it !

http://Missile hits Dimona southern ...tzb82nMiR5iE2O

Missile hits Dimona southern Israeli city hosting nuclear facility; 23 injured

⁠Iranian missiles hit Dimona and surrounding areas in southern Israel, says Israeli media

Serdar Dincel |21.03.2026 - Update : 21.03.2026
Photo:Wisam Hashlamoun/AAISTANBUL
Twenty-three people were injured in Dimona, home to a nuclear facility in southern Israel, following a barrage of missiles launched from Iran, Israeli media reported on Saturday.

The attack marks the seventh missile strike on Dimona and its surroundings since midnight local time (2200GMT), Israel's Channel 12 reported.

Israeli ambulance services provided medical treatment and evacuated the wounded to a hospital, the outlet added.

Hostilities in the region have escalated since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, with Tehran retaliating with repeated drone and missile strikes targeting Israel and Gulf countries hosting US military assets.

[Biggus]

Apparently around 90% of tbe "energy supplies" that pass through the Straits of Hormuz goes to Asia.

Sri Lanka has reportedly already reduced working days for government institutions and is rationing fuel for the public.

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by West Coast

OTH....

Over the horizon?

[gums]

Salute!

On The other Hand, maybe those in need further east could've/shoudl've have done something earlier, maybe even help now before it repeats, but I'll be damned other than building a pipeline across Oman like the Chinese did, and U.S. did with Alaska to minimize use of Bering Sea.

Gums

[Steepclimb]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Absolutely. Among my various circles of friends and acquaintances there is no sign that they are beginning to think beyond fuel going up a little at the pumps.
Just wait until the government says "no need to panic buy!".

My QM expert dear wife is organising a years-worth of consumables, and with an eye to interruptions in power supply. Fortunately we have good storage facilities. Red wine by the case.
And yes: It's far worse than it seems.

I believe you are wrong. With due respect.
Honestly I think the western media has got themselves over excited by the whole situation. Yes Trump jumped in with bad advice from his bumbling administration.

But in reality even the most optimistic Iranian leader knows he has a target on his back. They're losing and they know it.

I see this as history.

[tdracer]

This doesn't seem like something that a health regime - with time on its side - would take...

Open Source Intel on X: "Iran has rolled out a new 10 million rial banknote, its largest ever denomination, worth about $7. https://t.co/NSTzTl4jkE" / X

10 million worth ~$7 - and that's their largest denomination.​​​​​​​

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

I believe you are wrong. With due respect.
Honestly I think the western media has got themselves over excited by the whole situation. Yes Trump jumped in with bad advice from his bumbling administration.

But in reality even the most optimistic Iranian leader knows he has a target on his back. They're losing and they know it.

I see this as history.

Hope you are right. Never mind: anything bought and paid for now will be more expensive in a year's time.