Iran
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
For sure.
My confidence in the competence of the Gulf nations' military is very low, however, that's based on my experiences from a couple of decades ago, so my view may be well out of date.
How is this any different from the 8 year period in the 80's where the Iraq-Iran War impacted oil tanker flow, and (my memory is hazy) about 40 tankers were taken out.
What makes today's risks heavier? (Or is it not a bigger risk, and we too soon forget?)
My confidence in the competence of the Gulf nations' military is very low, however, that's based on my experiences from a couple of decades ago, so my view may be well out of date.
How is this any different from the 8 year period in the 80's where the Iraq-Iran War impacted oil tanker flow, and (my memory is hazy) about 40 tankers were taken out.
What makes today's risks heavier? (Or is it not a bigger risk, and we too soon forget?)
We rigged a VLCC under tow travelling east along the iron highway back in the early 80's, and approaching from the bow, there was a small back hole in the middle of the NO SMOKING "O" (the second one...). On passing behind, there was more or less nothing remaining of the after sections of the superstructure, it was a smOking ruin. The Iraqi's and Iranians certainly changed the opinion of some of that crew, and yet, the highway had no shortage of VLCC's plying their trade.
Our economies rely on energy supplies, but over time, since the early 70's we have become more adept to reacting to the volatility of the supply chain. We have also become more reactive in doing something loud about it, but really, it was ever thus, (ask Stalin about the Caucuses and Hitler's summer vacation, '41).
Disrupting the flow of oil out of the gulf becomes an own goal, Xi will not be happy with choking off his energy source, and as Iran has electronic bits and stuff to support their projected power, and their defence from rowdy stuff inbound, upsetting the customer is probably not a brilliant tactic.
Joined: Jul 2007
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From: Europe
https://raksha-anirveda.com/china-mo...o-iran-reports
https://www.news.com.au/world/middle...ran/news-story
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-e...racking-images
(I seem to remember China also moved some SAM & radar systems to Serbia by air at about the same time so there may have been multiple things going on)
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From: Europe
Lonewolf 50
My cousin served on tankers during that period, and did many transits, and indeed was on one of the ones shot up. They used to have to wait off Muscat to get special insurance clearance, and had a limited time in the Gulf while that cover was in place. He said the missiles were less of an issue than being strafed, though given the clear lack of an Iranian Air Force now that should not be an issue, though missile guidance and indeed Drones have all changed, and improved in the intervening 30 plus years.
I do not think tanker design has basically changed that much, and indeed some of those hulls maybe on their second Rodeo in the straits so to speak. I have emailed him given the ongoing discussion and indeed what is happening again there, and he said there were quite a few damaged and some severely back then, but he did not think the loss rate was as high as 40, he believed it to be in the low teens. He did say that he thinks you will start to see the convoying again of tankers in the not too distant future, as its just too much of an important product and choke point.
Cheers
Mr Mac
My cousin served on tankers during that period, and did many transits, and indeed was on one of the ones shot up. They used to have to wait off Muscat to get special insurance clearance, and had a limited time in the Gulf while that cover was in place. He said the missiles were less of an issue than being strafed, though given the clear lack of an Iranian Air Force now that should not be an issue, though missile guidance and indeed Drones have all changed, and improved in the intervening 30 plus years.
I do not think tanker design has basically changed that much, and indeed some of those hulls maybe on their second Rodeo in the straits so to speak. I have emailed him given the ongoing discussion and indeed what is happening again there, and he said there were quite a few damaged and some severely back then, but he did not think the loss rate was as high as 40, he believed it to be in the low teens. He did say that he thinks you will start to see the convoying again of tankers in the not too distant future, as its just too much of an important product and choke point.
Cheers
Mr Mac
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From: Texas
From India Today: (picture in the spoiler)
Spoiler
An Iran Air passenger aircraft has been destroyed on the ground during Israeli strikes on southern Iran, Iranian media reported, as the widening conflict begins to disrupt civilian aviation and nuclear construction projects. According to Iranian news sites quoted by Reuters, the aircraft belonging to Iran Air was hit during an attack on Bushehr Airport in the southern port city of Bushehr.
Iranian media reported that a passenger plane was "destroyed on the ground" in the strike on the airport. There was no immediate confirmation of casualties or details about whether the aircraft was in service at the time. The reports come amid ongoing Israeli strikes targeting sites across Iran. Bushehr, located along the Persian Gulf, is also home to Iran's only operational nuclear power plant...
Iranian media reported that a passenger plane was "destroyed on the ground" in the strike on the airport. There was no immediate confirmation of casualties or details about whether the aircraft was in service at the time. The reports come amid ongoing Israeli strikes targeting sites across Iran. Bushehr, located along the Persian Gulf, is also home to Iran's only operational nuclear power plant...
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From: Texas
Back then the cargoes were mostly crude oil. These days there are also a lot of LNG carriers, i.e. liquified methane - and those ships are definitely not the same thing as a old-style crude tanker. Getting crude oil to burn can take a bit of effort, and the spread of fire is relatively slow. Getting LNG to burn, and the rate of spread of fire, is a dramatically different thing. Quatar gas is about 20% of world shipping LNG supplies. Combine all this that is why the LNG spot prices have gone ballistic, the crude oil prices not so much.
I wonder if, now that Syria is no longer run by the Assad family, such a pipeline will get built and mitigate the risk of some of that export product. (Yes, I know that pipeline projects take a while to get underway and completed).
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From: Northumberland
From the BBC:
Trump says US navy will escort tankers through Strait of Hormuz 'if necessary'published at 19:55
19:55Breaking
Donald Trump says "if necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible".
The US-Israel war with Iran has almost entirely halted shipping traffic passing through the sea passage, which passes between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
It's one of the most important routes in the world for global oil and gas supplies, with almost 20 million barrels of oil passing through a day.
Trump says he has also instructed a federal agency to provide "political risk insurance and guarantees for ALL Maritime Trade" through the Gulf.
"No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the World," he says.
The US-Israel war with Iran has almost entirely halted shipping traffic passing through the sea passage, which passes between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
It's one of the most important routes in the world for global oil and gas supplies, with almost 20 million barrels of oil passing through a day.
Trump says he has also instructed a federal agency to provide "political risk insurance and guarantees for ALL Maritime Trade" through the Gulf.
"No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the World," he says.
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From: London
Given the importance of the passage its not beyond the realm of possibility the Gulf states take it on themselves to intervene here too.
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From: Texas
It's Reagan's re-flagging deal re-furbished.
for dead_pan: I'll bet that they did indeed wargame this in the JCS planning cell, but getting other governmental departments / cabinet offices on board such a plan can be a real bitch. {I am so glad to be out of that business...}
I have heard a rumor that DJT has proclaimed that the US will insure the ships if the insurance companies won't.
EDIT: OK, a citation from Al Jazeera
OK, we'll see if he's just spouting hot air, or if he's going to back that up.
for dead_pan: I'll bet that they did indeed wargame this in the JCS planning cell, but getting other governmental departments / cabinet offices on board such a plan can be a real bitch. {I am so glad to be out of that business...}
I have heard a rumor that DJT has proclaimed that the US will insure the ships if the insurance companies won't.
EDIT: OK, a citation from Al Jazeera
President Donald Trump has announced that the United States government will offer insurance to ships in the Gulf after Iran largely succeeded in shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices soaring.
The US president added that the US military will accompany ships through Hormuz if necessary.
The US president added that the US military will accompany ships through Hormuz if necessary.
“Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf,” Trump wrote in a social media post on Tuesday.
DFC is the US government’s development finance agency. Its mission is to “advance US foreign policy and strengthen national security by mobilising private capital” across the world.
Trump added that the discounted risk insurance will be available for all shipping lanes.
“If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” he wrote.
“No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”
DFC is the US government’s development finance agency. Its mission is to “advance US foreign policy and strengthen national security by mobilising private capital” across the world.
Trump added that the discounted risk insurance will be available for all shipping lanes.
“If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” he wrote.
“No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”
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From: Beyond the Blue Horizon
PP
Totally agree LNG are more volatile and the hulls themselves are expensive due to component parts and build.
However there are still a lot of VLCC chugging around there at around 12knots at best who will require protection which it appears they will get now. It didn’t take long for the penny to drop !
Cheers
Mr Mac
Totally agree LNG are more volatile and the hulls themselves are expensive due to component parts and build.
However there are still a lot of VLCC chugging around there at around 12knots at best who will require protection which it appears they will get now. It didn’t take long for the penny to drop !
Cheers
Mr Mac
Joined: Jun 2009
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From: Baston
PP
Totally agree LNG are more volatile and the hulls themselves are expensive due to component parts and build.
However there are still a lot of VLCC chugging around there at around 12knots at best who will require protection which it appears they will get now. It didn’t take long for the penny to drop !
Cheers
Mr Mac
Totally agree LNG are more volatile and the hulls themselves are expensive due to component parts and build.
However there are still a lot of VLCC chugging around there at around 12knots at best who will require protection which it appears they will get now. It didn’t take long for the penny to drop !
Cheers
Mr Mac
What could possibly go wrong? I hope this was wargamed,
Last edited by langleybaston; 3rd March 2026 at 20:48. Reason: addendum
See and avoid
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From: USA
PP
Totally agree LNG are more volatile and the hulls themselves are expensive due to component parts and build.
However there are still a lot of VLCC chugging around there at around 12knots at best who will require protection which it appears they will get now. It didn’t take long for the penny to drop !
Cheers
Mr Mac
Totally agree LNG are more volatile and the hulls themselves are expensive due to component parts and build.
However there are still a lot of VLCC chugging around there at around 12knots at best who will require protection which it appears they will get now. It didn’t take long for the penny to drop !
Cheers
Mr Mac
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From: Washington.
A few years back we discussed the issue of Syria blocking a gas pipeline from the Gulf into the Med, and Europe, thanks to Russia's self interest being impacted.
I wonder if, now that Syria is no longer run by the Assad family, such a pipeline will get built and mitigate the risk of some of that export product. (Yes, I know that pipeline projects take a while to get underway and completed).
I wonder if, now that Syria is no longer run by the Assad family, such a pipeline will get built and mitigate the risk of some of that export product. (Yes, I know that pipeline projects take a while to get underway and completed).
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From: troposphere
The Iranian versions have a 40kg warhead, I guess this one would be similar, that will ruin your day at point blank range.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
B-52s outbound after completing their first Iran bombing mission. 30 hour round trip.
Audio of Chill 11 a flight of 3 x B-52s outbound joining up up with 4 x KC-46s with Boston ATC yesterday; now audio checking in with Nicosia ATC to join another flight of waiting tankers westbound.
I am presuming direct back home rather than to Fairford.
Audio of Chill 11 a flight of 3 x B-52s outbound joining up up with 4 x KC-46s with Boston ATC yesterday; now audio checking in with Nicosia ATC to join another flight of waiting tankers westbound.
I am presuming direct back home rather than to Fairford.
Last edited by ORAC; 3rd March 2026 at 22:33.
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From: Ferrara
Friends in Dubai say they're sitting at home and not going out but there's no shortage of anything - other than flights
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From: La Rochelle.
A quick look at FR24 shows a dramatic increase in aircraft movements around UAE/Saudi/Bahrain. No major missile attacks today from Iran. An unofficial ceasefire with 'talks' or Iran licking their wounds and US/Israel just biding their time?
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From: Glorious Devon
I read Mr Trump wants the US Navy to convoy ships through the Straits. Surely that would create what, in military circles, is referred to as a target rich environment.
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From: Nevada, USA
Missile hit on Al Udeid - no casualties
Damage to $1.1 Billion AN/FPS-132 phased array radar claimed by Iran a few days ago now confirmed by Qatar & commercially available satellite imagery.
Damage to $1.1 Billion AN/FPS-132 phased array radar claimed by Iran a few days ago now confirmed by Qatar & commercially available satellite imagery.
Last edited by RAFEngO74to09; 3rd March 2026 at 23:55.
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From: Texas