Iran

[WillowRun 6-3]

From material in a recent post by ORAC . . .
"I talked to two Israeli sources on why Iranian launches continue to increase, despite US-Israeli claims that they have destroyed almost all of the launchers. Here is what they said: . . ."

1. None of the tactics reportedly pursued by Irani missile (and drone) forces would appear to be so sophisticated that it would be reasonable to assess that both the U.S. and the Israelis, or either one of them, were unaware of Irani readiness and capability to make these specific moves, including the various means of gaining deception and cover.

2. Intelligence successes by the Israelis in the past few years have been impressive (even if you're staunchly anti-Israel or even just opposed to Israel's single-minded and ruthless approach to its national security interests, denying these successes would be pretty ridiculous, or at least denied in vain.)

3. It would appear reasonable to assess that, given sufficient time and with the perhaps harder assumption that the respective intelligence capabilities of both the Americans and the Israelis will be deployed calmly and with focused attention, the Iranis can run and to some extent hide, but like the established players tell the rookies on the American gridiron, Not For Long (for those who think only of FIFA when "football" is uttered, that's the N.F.L.).

4. But time is an escalating issue now, due to the energy infrastructure attacks and destruction, which compound the market trauma from closure of the Straits of Hormuz. But consider this alternative reasoning (no, not based on alternative facts, just a different set of inferences and implications than some have articulated, and certainly different from the all-Trump, all-the-time media and new-media echo chambers). The energy sector problems (both infrastructure and free passage through the Hormuz chokepoint) are very serious and no end in sight. Okay.

What amount of imagination is needed to picture the disruption which would likely if not certainly result from Iran applying nuclear coercion over some one of the many grievances which agitate the theocracy? Worse, what does the disruption look like if (better angels forbid) a nuclear device were to be detonated in the Gulf, or delivered elsewhere? I do not regard these questions as improperly venturing into the "unthinkable". In my admittedly only barely semi-professional studies in the national security and military affairs realms I have not yet encountered any Irani doctrine or doctrinal writer proclaiming that "nuclear conflict is unwinnable." To the contrary, their - to most all Western sensibilities and probably most Eastern sensibilities as well - extreme religious-based zealotry suggests that nuclear use would be a better path to martyrdom. Their proxies, after all, relish in enunciating, "we love death more than you love life."

So without minimizing the harmful consequences being visited upon the energy sector, or gaslighting those who focus upon those issues, just consider how much worse it would be with a nuclear-armed Iran which played to its character, a character which has been consistently demonstrated for, lo, 47 years.

A note on bias. I can tell you where I was when I heard the news of the failure of the rescue mission for the hostages held after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. After the news of that unbelievable failure, lunch at the Chicago Playboy Club was never the same. (Dinner at the Lincoln Park location after it moved from downtown, however, was always fun . . . but I digress.)

Almost last, I think it's worthwhile, maybe even important, to give props to the Saudis. They acquired F-15s at least as early as 1982 or '83 (the photograph on the cover of an edition of Aviation Week & Space Technology in the summer of '82 or '83 featured, iirc, two Saudi McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagles in flight over, again iirc, King Abdulaziz Airport. The KAS air element has significant capability, is what I'm getting at, and they are serving as a force for restraint, on both sides (or more correctly, all three sides).

Last, it is worth recalling sometimes that things work very differently in the modern State of Israel. There is nearly universal military training and service, and it is quite rather co-ed (at least in the obligation for training and some length of service). I know not everyone who reads the forum was alive when Richard J. Daley was Mayor of Chicago, and many might not care anything about his record or actions (like, ordering the Chicago Cops to assault the anti-war protestors during the 1968 Democratic National Convention). But one thing Hizzoner said is relevant outside of the context in which he said it. About the people who were engaged in violent rioting during one of the civil disorders provoked and instigated by racial violence and injustice - and specifically (iirc the specific instance), Mayor Daley rhetorically asked, "What trees do they plant?" One of the major combatants in this war has made the desert bloom for several decades. One of the other major combatants massacres protesters against an oppressive regime by the thousands. Something-something about "just war" (Daley was South Side Irish, you understand).