Iran

[Winemaker]

Originally Posted by Petit-Lion

How deep is it? First guesses were about 100 meters. Then figures like '500 meters' were floated around. And now this 800m "for the most sensitive things". Ok, nobody knows. And nobody knows how deep can one or several MOPs reach, either.

I'm curious, how hot is it down there? The average geothermal gradient is 3 K/100 m below the surface in Europe (Wikipedia). Therefore about ISA+24 at 800 meters. Could be different under this mountain, a geologist would know. And you have a big plant with hundreds centrifuges, each requiring tens of kW of electricity. Where goes all this heat? And where does all the electricity come from? Maybe it's easier to target the nearest powerplant and/or the numerous huge exhaust stacks?

IMO it can't be this deep and this big at the same time...

I don't think temperature increase with depth it's as straight forward as you state; there can be a negative temperature gradient. From Wikipedia:

Negative geothermal gradients occur where temperature decreases with depth. This occurs in the upper few hundreds of meters near the surface. Because of the low thermal diffusivity of rocks, deep underground temperatures are hardly affected by diurnal or even annual surface temperature variations. At depths of a few meters, underground temperatures are therefore similar to the annual average surface temperature. At greater depths, underground temperatures reflect a long-term average over past climate, so that temperatures at the depths of dozens to hundreds of meters contain information about the climate of the last hundreds to thousands of years. Depending on the location, these may be colder than current temperatures due to the colder weather close to the last ice age, or due to more recent climate change.

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by Petit-Lion

How deep is it? First guesses were about 100 meters. Then figures like '500 meters' were floated around. And now this 800m "for the most sensitive things". Ok, nobody knows. And nobody knows how deep can one or several MOPs reach, either.

I'm curious, how hot is it down there? The average geothermal gradient is 3 K/100 m below the surface in Europe (Wikipedia). Therefore about ISA+24 at 800 meters. Could be different under this mountain, a geologist would know. And you have a big plant with hundreds centrifuges, each requiring tens of kW of electricity. Where goes all this heat? And where does all the electricity come from? Maybe it's easier to target the nearest powerplant and/or the numerous huge exhaust stacks?

IMO it can't be this deep and this big at the same time...

Forgive me if I'm talking out of my proverbial but I understand that as they have enriched to a level beyond that required for power generation maybe they're running the centrifuges from a small underground reactor?

Edit: No, how would they cool such a reactor?

[Winemaker]

Originally Posted by Expatrick

Forgive me if I'm talking out of my proverbial but I understand that as they have enriched to a level beyond that required for power generation maybe they're running the centrifuges from a small underground reactor?

Edit: No, how would they cool such a reactor?

If they did have a reactor it's much easier to produce Pu-239 than separate U-235 from U-238.

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by Winemaker

If they did have a reactor it's much easier to produce P-239 than separate U-235 from U-238.

Good point, I warned I was talking out of my proverbial!

[ORAC]

On the other hand, maybe they'd get to a point where they embrace the Götterdämmerung...but I never saw the Mullahs as suicidal.

Well they are Shiite fundamentalists who believe the 12th Imam is here, hidden, and the destruction of Israel is the signal for his return - and they did build the countdown clock in Palestine Square…..

[BANANASBANANAS]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

BRUpax, a problem with them doing that is that launching a nuke (or a number of them, Israel has ballistic missile defenses) at the Holy Land is in direct opposition to their Axis of Resistance posture.
Such a strike would render Israel (or as they see it, the rightful homeland of the Palestinian Muslims) - uninhabitable, at least for the near term.
The land would be poisoned, rather than restored to the Palestinians.
Having the weapon would be (1) a status symbol and (2) a possible deterrent to attacks on or invasion of Iran.
On the other hand, maybe they'd get to a point where they embrace the Götterdämmerung...but I never saw the Mullahs as suicidal.

Everything you say makes sense - if you think logically! When you are driven by religious ideology though, logic isn't always on display.

[SINGAPURCANAC]

Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS

Everything you say makes sense - if you think logically! When you are driven by religious ideology though, logic isn't always on display.

Apart from logic,, they have no real capabilities to make nuclear attack..
Especially successfull one.
Logic is direct cause of education and learning.
Countries where religion is so important- have no chance to educate their own people at required level because they simply do not courage question why? How?

Iran only could do:
1.Lost a lot of their people, capital and infrastructure
2.Make a lot of money to their enemies- USA,KSA, Israel, although you may bet that other arabs, chinese/ japanse will lip honey too...
3. Risk of breakdiwn of Iran ( with civil war ) is real threat- that will rise with every further rocket to Israel/ USA interests...
4. Make arab countries happy

[rattman]

Buckle up, the big boys are on the move

something took off whitman, immediately refueled in flight from 4 tanker, so have a full bomb load. Another flight of 4 tankers are tracking west with the flight of unknown planes

You can go to pretty much what ever twitter source you want

X - Formerly Twitter

[Less Hair]

They could have moved unseen if they had wanted.

[Spunky Monkey]

Instead of trying to put a bomb into the centre of the tunnel complex, where the centrifuges etc are.
Surely it would be easier to destroy the area just on inner side of the entrance doors?

The overpressure inside would render anyone inside useless or dead and the collapse would seal the tunnel (s) for a very long time.
Entombing the scientists as well.
The Iranians won't be able to get any heavy equipment into the area as the Israelis have air dominance and they could take out electrical infrastructure etc making the whole area a slow creeping morgue.

[Bob Viking]

I would say the Iranian nuclear scientists are some of the most brave (foolish) people on the planet right now.

Assuming they are not shackled to their work stations they have to leave their homes and drive to work every day. I’m pretty sure I’d rapidly develop a good non-specific symptom requiring home rest for a good few days/weeks. Or maybe treatment at a foreign clinic.

BV

[[email protected]]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Yes, I concur.

This got me from the Reuters news thread.

• White House says Trump's top priority is preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapon
• Iran could produce nuclear weapon in just weeks, White House claims
• Critics question Trump's two-week deadline

So, if it’s just weeks away, why give them two more to perfect / complete it.?

Doesn't that sound spookily similar to the GW Bush claims of WMD in Iraq? If they want to bomb, they will always be able to manufacture a threat that justifies the response.

[T28B]

As neither mod nor admin:
crab, and for that matter any of you: if you'd like a laugh, have a look at what charliegolf posted in Friday Memes.

[RAFEngO74to09]

6 x B-2A en route to Guam

KC-135R/T and KC-46A currently at: PSAB, Saudi Arabia 22 / Moron AB, Spain 18 / Lajes AB, Portugal 12

[ORAC]

A wave of KC-46 deployed west out of California to Hawaii, Guam and Australia about 36 hours ago to support their deployment. Presumably en-route to Diego Garcia.

[BRUpax]

"Sir, we have lost all intel".
"Don't worry soldier we have access to PPRuNe"

[cavuman1]

Several B-2 Spirit bombers have recently departed Whiteman AFB heading west. 30-hour round trip to/from central Iran. I should not like to be on the receiving end.

- Ed

[Big Pistons Forever]

The ONLY reason that Iran has a nuclear program is to provide it the means to make a nuclear weapon. To say that a country swimming in oil and gas needs nuclear power for energy generation is risible. They have long term form in hiding nuclear production facilities and enriching uranium way past any possible peaceful use. As soon as Iran makes a bomb the security calculus in the area immediately and permanently changes. The options to constrain the malevolent reach of Iran's fanatical leadership is dramatically reduced. The senior leadership of Iran routinely call for "death to America and death to Israel" so I would suggest that eliminating Iran's nuclear weapons is in the national security interests of the US.

I firmly believe the right thing to do is to bomb every nuclear or nuclear related site to dust, but then follow up with a relaxation of sanctions contingent on Iran not rebuilding any of its infrastructure. This is a Middle East inflection point. The combination of the destruction of Iran's proxies along with the collapsing Iranian economy gives the US and Israel an unprecedented chance to reorder the security situation in the area. Time for the US to step up.

[T28B]

Originally Posted by BRUpax

"Sir, we have lost all intel".
"Don't worry soldier we have access to PPRuNe"

"Not helping, sir!"
(Posted as neither mod nor admin, but with a song in my heart)

[Steepclimb]

Originally Posted by cavuman1

Several B-2 Spirit bombers have recently departed Whiteman AFB heading west. 30-hour round trip to/from central Iran. I should not like to be on the receiving end.

- Ed

I think the regime in Iran will understand the message. Unless it's another Trump TACO situation.