I think this may be over-simplifying things. I'm sure historically your numbers are correct. But it is a fact that the world energy market is actual one market. And any load of energy can and will be shifted to where it can sell for the highest price.
The globalised market seems to have splintered - at least for the moment. Ships, routes, contracts may adapt - but not yet.
See this link to a JB thread:
Petrol Shortage