Iran

[West Coast]

He’s mounted a tiger and has no way to get off……

Propaganda ORAC. When will the tiger show up to the war beyond a few lucky pot shots?

[langleybaston]

[QUOTE=Lonewolf_50;12049602]I don't have to answer for the RAF's failures, so why are you tossing that jab at me, LB? There is a whole thread on that in this sub forum, suggest you try and sell your soap there.

Lonewolf you misunderstand. I was letting off steam about preparedness [lack of] this side of the Atlantic.
No jab intended.

[B Fraser]

Originally Posted by West Coast

Propaganda ORAC. When will the tiger show up to the war beyond a few lucky pot shots?

Never underestimate (or in the case of the USA, forget) what a small group of ideologically driven individuals are capable of. The war is being conducted by two radically different mindsets.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Another case of fools announcing a war is over, without the other side agreeing to it.

The old "home by Christmas" from the Korean War. Doesn't anyone learn from Mil History? Wait, people who do that are "deep state" and get fired. ​​As to your other points, Iran is targeting the seams of the "coalition" of KSA and the Gulf States. This is similar to (but in detail different than) what Saddam did in '91 when he launched Scuds at Israel - hit the local allies and get them to buckle / fold in terms of a cohesive political team. The slow erosion of the Coalition in Iraq (2003-2010) is another example for comparison, albeit over a much longer time period.

Originally Posted by MechEngr

This is why the one company declined to allow their AI to be used for such planning and is now being black-balled by the administration; the administration wants to have someone or something else to blame avoidable disasters for.

Mech, despite ending that sentence in a preposition, you took the words right out of my mouth.
FWIW, there is a recent case of this (late 2023 through mid 2024, and possibly longer than that) where in Gaza it became known that the IDF was using some kind of algorithm to parse various RoE and arrive at go-no-go decisions, which a bunch of us observed as far looser RoE than any of us had ever experienced.
One wonders if the people in the Petulant Pete's DoD had chosen to take that as a lesson learned? Not to mention, the IDF is involved in this current operation, so there may be a number of things that are quite different from any coalition ops that I was familiar with...

Originally Posted by ORAC

Looks like Trump wants an off-ramp and a way out of the war - but Iran isn’t interested.

At the moment, with the new guy just recently ascending, and getting his inner circle organized, it's small wonder they aren't discussing this.

They can't be seen to be weak/beaten down, can they? Whatever they do has to be sold to the home audience.
Not only that, but a few days ago the foreign minister had pointed out that last year, and this year, while negotiating with the US over weapons matters the US struck them while negotiations were ongoing, so he can certainly make the case at this point of "why would we negotiate with you if during those talks you'll start bombing us again if you run out of patience?"

And that's a fair point to make from the Iranian point of view.

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by B Fraser

Never underestimate (or in the case of the USA, forget) what a small group of ideologically driven individuals are capable of. The war is being conducted by two radically different mindsets.

Can find anything to disagree with your statement. State sponsored terrorism is Iran's strength and its anticipated. Doesn't make them a tiger, it only serves to alienate them further.

[ORAC]

West Coast, “to ride a tiger” is an idiom, it doesn’t say anything about the capability of Iran, just the situation that Trump has put himself in. It comes from a Chinese proverb.

To ride a tiger: https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/riding+a+tiger

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

I don't have to answer for the RAF's failures, so why are you tossing that jab at me, LB? There is a whole thread on that in this sub forum, suggest you try and sell your soap there.

Lonewolf you misunderstand. I was letting off steam about preparedness [lack of] this side of the Atlantic.
No jab intended.

My apologies, LB. I read something into that post which was not there. Mea culpa.

I am pretty sure that we are going to see some fifth column activity on this side of the pond that is directly related to this conflict.
I don't think that this was related to the Persian Gulf Op,

Spoiler

 

 

Two Pennsylvania men on Saturday followed the route taken by thousands as they crossed the George Washington Bridge into New York City. But less than an hour later, their trajectory took a dark turn as they were arrested for throwing homemade bombs during an anti-Muslim protest outside of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s home.

Emir Balat, 18, and Ibrahim Kayumi, 19, were charged Monday with providing material support to a terrorist organization and using a weapon of mass destruction, among other charges, after they threw two improvised explosive devices, also known as IEDs, during a protest, according to a criminal complaint filed in federal court.

but I also don't think that it's the last of such attempts that we'll see.

[Recc]

Originally Posted by West Coast

Propaganda ORAC. When will the tiger show up to the war beyond a few lucky pot shots?

If you take Op Prosperity Guardian as a template: The US military will deliver an impressive performance and achieve much everything that was asked of them, but it will still end in a Strategic failure. My best guess is that (like in the Red Sea) , a low-intensity Iranian operation will massively throttle western linked shipping volumes. The US will continue to strike launchers but will be unable to reassure insurers or ship owners sufficiently. In the meantime, China will remain uninvolved in public but in private will get security guarantees from Iran in exchange for financial and military support. This will allow Chinese shipping lines to massively increase their share of oil transport, increasing profit and securing Chinese interests. The US will then have to make a decision on whether or not to commit to an indefinite ground operation in order to restore freedom of navigation through the straits.

[ORAC]

https://kyivindependent.com/exclusiv...d-iran-threat/

Exclusive: Saudi Arabia prepping 'huge deal' for Ukrainian weapons amid Iranian drone threat

[RAFEngO74to09]

US SecWar + Chairman JCS Briefing - 10 Mar 26

Department of War 🇺🇸 on X: "LIVE: @SecWar and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, hold a press briefing at the Pentagon. https://t.co/MLd6Uwpdc1" / Twitter

[EDLB]

The problem even for a massive boots on the ground invasion: With todays drone technology a single FPV drone will suffice to sink a CNG tanker. With the narrow Hormus street a fiber optic guidance will do which if not vulnerable to any EW methods. So how the US will be able to open Hormus? They dug into an extremely asymmetric threat hole. Why did they allowed this to happen? The war in Ukraine clearly showed the danger. Todays battlefield has a 10-30km drone kill all zone. Over water even more.

[B Fraser]

Originally Posted by West Coast

Can find anything to disagree with your statement. State sponsored terrorism is Iran's strength and its anticipated. Doesn't make them a tiger, it only serves to alienate them further.

Staying with the animal analogies, I see them more of a blue ringed octopus. It looks like it would not give you too many issues........ until it does and you have a half day out with the undertaker.

You will never anticipate what they may do, that is their strength and the West's weakness. They only need to be lucky once and I thought we had learned that the hard way.

[dead_pan]

All this talk of the war ending soon misses two key factors: whether the Israelis will agree to it and, more importantly, whether the Iranians will do likewise. They may well decide to prolong hostilities just to make a point.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/Jamie__Ingram/status/2...097080920?s=20

​​​​​​​Abu Dhabi confirms attack on its 922,000 b/f Ruwais refining complex today. Level of damage unclear as yet, but this is a serious development.

The competent authorities in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi are dealing with a fire that broke out in one of the facilities within the Ruwais Industrial Complex, resulting from a drone attack, with no injuries recorded so far.

​​​​​​​The competent authorities have urged the public to obtain information from official sources only, and to avoid circulating rumors or unverified information.​​​​​​​

Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruwais_refinery

[ORAC]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/20...999917180?s=20

According to CBS News, citing two U.S. officials with knowledge on the matter, the U.S. has lost two additional MQ-9 Reaper drones during operations against Iran.

This brings the total losses of MQ-9s during the conflict with Iran to 11.

​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Maybe the EU and the UK should be taking to them right now?

https://x.com/Tendar/status/2031346169129881630?s=20

​​​​​​​According to an exclusive report by Axios Ukrainian officials offered the Trump administration a plan to establish world-wide operating anti-drone network, which would not only operate in Europe but also in the Middle East and even east Asia. The exchange, which occurred in August 2025, contained slides describing the concept and provided maps.

The defense network, which would have been made up by 20 million drones, a multi-layer capability and assert "American drone dominance", would have been capable to counter even the Shahed waves, which are harassing the Middle East right now.....

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/10/us-...ti-drone-offer

Exclusive: U.S. dismissed Ukraine deal for anti-Iran drone tech last year

Nearly seven months ago, Ukrainian officials tried to sell the U.S. their battle-proven technology for downing Iranian-made attack drones. They even made a PowerPoint presentation — obtained exclusively by Axios — showing how it could protect American forces and their allies in a Middle East war.

The Trump administration dismissed the Ukrainians, only to reverse course last week because of more-than-expected drone strikes from Iran.

Why it matters: Snubbing Ukraine's offer ranks as one of the biggest tactical miscalculations by the administration since the bombing of Iran began Feb. 28, two U.S. officials tell Axios.

Iran's inexpensive Shahed drones have been linked to the deaths of seven U.S. service members, and have cost the U.S. and its friends in the region millions of dollars to intercept.

"If there's a tactical error or a mistake we made leading up to this [war in Iran], this was it," a U.S. official acknowledged.......

[fly-by-wife]

Originally Posted by ORAC

https://kyivindependent.com/exclusiv...d-iran-threat/

Exclusive: Saudi Arabia prepping 'huge deal' for Ukrainian weapons amid Iranian drone threat

I hope this is a licensing not a manufacturing deal - surely Ukraine needs all the drones it can build for itself?

[ORAC]

................

https://x.com/ArmchairAdml/status/20...461934594?s=20

#USAF United States Air Force
- Iran War Activity RAF Fairford, United Kingdom
9 March - 2359z

Activity at RAF Fairford has been steadily increasing since the 6th of March. So far, there have been 11 Global Strike Command B-1 and B-52 bombers arrive, 10 x United States Transportation Command (#USTRANSCOM) chartered flights which are either scheduled, or have arrived. Furthermore, there have been 5 x C-17s, 2 x C-5s and 2 x C-130s.

United States Transportation Command

The USTRANSCOM flights have been a mixture of Kalitta, Eastern, Omni and Atlas Air Boeing 777s and 747s.

Two Boeing 777S - OMNI 2043 and EASTERN 3163 - arrived on the 9th of March from Ellseworth AFB and Dyess AFB. These two were passenger aircraft, not cargo.
Four cargo B747s arrived from Ellsworth AFB (CONNIE 411/413/415/417), CAMBER 8192/8548 from Dyess AFB and CAMBER 8675/CONNIE 505 from Minot AFB.

Air Mobility Command

We have seen 5 x C-17s and two x C-5s from CONUS over the past three days.

From Dyess AFB, C-5s REACH 1884/5038, and C-17s REACH 694/579.
From Minot AFB has been REACH 636/660/689.
There haven't been any AMC flights from Ellsworth AFB.
Additionally, two Ramstein-based C-130s have arrived with cargo to offload, and depart within a few hours.

Global Strike Command

Three flights of bombers have now arrived at Fairford.

On Friday, B-1s PIKE 72 arrived as the airspare, followed by PIKE 72-74 on Saturday morning.
Saturday evening, B-1s MOLT 14 arrived in the evening, and MOLT 11-13 in the morning, but these had to divert to Ramstein due to weather. They have all three since returned to Fairford.
Finally, HOOKY 21-23 flight of B-52s arrived at Fairford around lunchtime on 9th March.

The current expectations are another flight of three B-52s will arrive on the 10th, bringing the total to 8 x B-1s and 6 x B-52s.

​​​​​​​There have been NO indications that B-2s will be deployed to Fairford.

[ORAC]

More Iranian High Command deaths.....

https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/20...549637469?s=20

​​​​​​​Brigadier General Asadullah Badfar, Head of the Basij Affairs Department at the General Staff of the Armed Forces, was killed in joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. His death wasn't offically announced, but he was buried on March 8th in Qom.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/2031281432878829842?s=20

​​​​​​​Senior Iranian military commander Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi has reportedly been killed in U.S.–Israeli airstrikes, according to Israeli media.

Aliabadi was a senior IRGC figure and considered close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, serving in Iran’s top military command structure. If confirmed, this would mark another major blow to Iran’s military leadership.

[ORAC]

Australia deploying an E-7 Wedgetail to the Middle East at the request of Gulf States.

https://thenightly.com.au/australia/...eat-c-21890962

What is an E-7A Wedgetail, what does it do? Australia deploys assets to Middle East to combat Iran threat

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed an advances defence aircraft is being sent to the Gulf as Iran’s attacks destabilise the Middle East.

“The United Arab Emirates alone has been forced to shoot down over 1500 rockets and drones,” Mr Albanese said.

“This growing wave of dangerous and destabilising attacks from Iran puts civilian lives at risk. Of course, including Australian lives, of which there are more than 20,000 people based in the UAE.

“Australia will deploy an E-7A Wedgetail to the Gulf to help protect and defend Australians and other civilians.”....