Iran
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
https://thenightly.com.au/politics/h...ng--c-21892748
USS Charlotte: How Australian submariners avoided taking part in Iranian warship sinking
Australians serving on a US submarine which sunk an Iranian warship last week were ordered to their sleeping quarters while the operation to fire torpedoes at the enemy target was underway.
The Nightly has learnt new details of the events which occurred in international waters of the Indian Ocean on Wednesday evening Canberra time, reportedly on board the Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Charlotte.
Following a National Security Committee meeting last Friday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed three Royal Australian Navy personnel were embedded in the crew of the US submarine which fired at IRIS Dena, killing at least 87 people. “I can confirm also, though, that no Australian personnel have participated in any offensive action against Iran,” Mr Albanese told Sky News when asked to verify a report in the Sydney Morning Herald.
“These are long-standing third country arrangements that have been in place for a long period of time,” Mr Albanese said. “What they do is ensure that Australian Defence Force personnel, where they’re embedded in third countries’ defence assets, they act in accordance with Australian law, with Australian policy, and that, of course, is taking place across the board.”
A military source familiar with the tightly held details of last week’s dramatic lethal attack has confirmed to The Nightly that Australian personnel were kept away from the US “offensive action” against Iran, by being ordered to head to their rooms.....
Australians serving on a US submarine which sunk an Iranian warship last week were ordered to their sleeping quarters while the operation to fire torpedoes at the enemy target was underway.
The Nightly has learnt new details of the events which occurred in international waters of the Indian Ocean on Wednesday evening Canberra time, reportedly on board the Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Charlotte.
Following a National Security Committee meeting last Friday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed three Royal Australian Navy personnel were embedded in the crew of the US submarine which fired at IRIS Dena, killing at least 87 people. “I can confirm also, though, that no Australian personnel have participated in any offensive action against Iran,” Mr Albanese told Sky News when asked to verify a report in the Sydney Morning Herald.
“These are long-standing third country arrangements that have been in place for a long period of time,” Mr Albanese said. “What they do is ensure that Australian Defence Force personnel, where they’re embedded in third countries’ defence assets, they act in accordance with Australian law, with Australian policy, and that, of course, is taking place across the board.”
A military source familiar with the tightly held details of last week’s dramatic lethal attack has confirmed to The Nightly that Australian personnel were kept away from the US “offensive action” against Iran, by being ordered to head to their rooms.....
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From: Texas
To use a boxing analogy: if one assumes (every plan carries within it planning assumptions) that the opponent will quit after a bloody nose, but the opponent chooses to fight until you throw the knockout punch, your boxing match turns into a slug fest.
I will ask, since I don't know, was this not a part of the plan of campaign?
If it wasn't, and given the experiences in the ME for the last 25 years by a lot of the people on the Joint Staff, why the heck not? Did they furlough or get rid off all of the people familiar with this region?
{snip}
Gee, who saw that coming?
In the short term, this would appear to be an own goal.
Originally Posted by a current story on CNN
As the conflict with Iran intensifies, the world’s energy arteries are constricting to a point of “nonlinearity,” where every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed doesn’t just double the economic pain — it multiplies it exponentially.
{snip} Yet inside the Pentagon and the West Wing, the math is becoming grim. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has surged past $100 a barrel. The lack of oil flowing through the global market has slowed production to a crawl and is rapidly approaching the tipping point where major producers shut it down altogether due to storage constraints.
Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE are shutting off wells as storage tanks overflow. Once these wells go dark, they cannot simply be flipped back on, creating a looming supply crater that would create a cascading effect on the global economy.
“These kinds of market conditions, if they last or get worse, are going to force a reality where there’s going to have be a reconsideration of the scale and scope of this operation,” a former senior administration official told CNN. “There is an urgent need for a near-term solution, and the White House is aware of that fact.” The only immediate solution to this spiraling crisis, according to oil executives, market analysts and diplomats, is a US Navy escort operation – something Trump promised last week would be available to protect shipping assets in short order.
“This is a matter that is being studied very closely by the military and discussed constantly,” a senior administration official told CNN. “A lot of progress has been made in coming up with a plan that can do exactly what the president has suggested.”
The internal deliberations over the timing and conditions for a US naval operation have been a central focus inside the administration over the last week, according to multiple people briefed on the planning who spoke to CNN. Inside the administration, the intensive internal deliberations over the operation have focused on analyzing the risk of sending US naval assets into an active conflict zone.
{snip} Yet inside the Pentagon and the West Wing, the math is becoming grim. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has surged past $100 a barrel. The lack of oil flowing through the global market has slowed production to a crawl and is rapidly approaching the tipping point where major producers shut it down altogether due to storage constraints.
Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE are shutting off wells as storage tanks overflow. Once these wells go dark, they cannot simply be flipped back on, creating a looming supply crater that would create a cascading effect on the global economy.
“These kinds of market conditions, if they last or get worse, are going to force a reality where there’s going to have be a reconsideration of the scale and scope of this operation,” a former senior administration official told CNN. “There is an urgent need for a near-term solution, and the White House is aware of that fact.” The only immediate solution to this spiraling crisis, according to oil executives, market analysts and diplomats, is a US Navy escort operation – something Trump promised last week would be available to protect shipping assets in short order.
“This is a matter that is being studied very closely by the military and discussed constantly,” a senior administration official told CNN. “A lot of progress has been made in coming up with a plan that can do exactly what the president has suggested.”
The internal deliberations over the timing and conditions for a US naval operation have been a central focus inside the administration over the last week, according to multiple people briefed on the planning who spoke to CNN. Inside the administration, the intensive internal deliberations over the operation have focused on analyzing the risk of sending US naval assets into an active conflict zone.
If it wasn't, and given the experiences in the ME for the last 25 years by a lot of the people on the Joint Staff, why the heck not? Did they furlough or get rid off all of the people familiar with this region?
Spoiler
Iran has effectively bifurcated the strait between its traditional Navy and the more aggressive Revolutionary Guard. The latter has the capability the deploy a “gauntlet” of dispersed mine-laying craft, explosive-laden suicide boats and shore-based missile batteries. “The oil pressure is going to hit a head sooner than we can remove the capabilities we want to move,” one source noted. “The timelines don’t match up.”
Taking on the escort mission would require putting naval vessels in harm’s way purely for the purpose of shielding oil ships with no obvious strategic advantage for the war itself. The long-standing operational plan involves US destroyers positioning themselves to protect the tankers from Iranian threats, and Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) providing support.
However, intelligence suggests Iran is playing a psychological game. It is unlikely to strike ships entering the Gulf; instead, it is expected to target them on the way out, when they are fully laden. The “shock value” hierarchy is particularly chilling. Analysts believe Iran will prioritize Liquefied Natural Gas tankers first—vessels that could “explode like the Beirut bomb”—followed by oil tankers to maximize environmental and economic chaos. Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, underscored Iran’s posture - and the risks that come with it - in a Monday social media post.
“It is unlikely that any security will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the fires of the war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region,” Larijani posted in X in response to a post highlighting French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments about planning for a defensive escort mission to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“We have a temporary period of elevated energy prices, but it will not be long,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday in an appearance on CBS Face the Nation. “In the worst case, this is weeks, this is not months. And it leads to a much better place.”
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Energy Secretary Chris Wright have spoken with oil executives about ways to curb energy prices and federal agencies have been tasked with finding near-term solutions to any price spikes.
In a pragmatic — if politically sensitive — move, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled a willingness to “un-sanction” hundreds of millions of barrels of Russian oil currently stranded at sea to inject immediate liquidity.
Taking on the escort mission would require putting naval vessels in harm’s way purely for the purpose of shielding oil ships with no obvious strategic advantage for the war itself. The long-standing operational plan involves US destroyers positioning themselves to protect the tankers from Iranian threats, and Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) providing support.
However, intelligence suggests Iran is playing a psychological game. It is unlikely to strike ships entering the Gulf; instead, it is expected to target them on the way out, when they are fully laden. The “shock value” hierarchy is particularly chilling. Analysts believe Iran will prioritize Liquefied Natural Gas tankers first—vessels that could “explode like the Beirut bomb”—followed by oil tankers to maximize environmental and economic chaos. Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, underscored Iran’s posture - and the risks that come with it - in a Monday social media post.
“It is unlikely that any security will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the fires of the war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region,” Larijani posted in X in response to a post highlighting French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments about planning for a defensive escort mission to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“We have a temporary period of elevated energy prices, but it will not be long,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday in an appearance on CBS Face the Nation. “In the worst case, this is weeks, this is not months. And it leads to a much better place.”
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Energy Secretary Chris Wright have spoken with oil executives about ways to curb energy prices and federal agencies have been tasked with finding near-term solutions to any price spikes.
In a pragmatic — if politically sensitive — move, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled a willingness to “un-sanction” hundreds of millions of barrels of Russian oil currently stranded at sea to inject immediate liquidity.
While the administration has dismissed plans to trade oil futures and is currently holding the SPR in check, the consensus among industry titans like the American Petroleum Institute is singular: The only way out is through. “The real focus has to be on clearing the strait,” an oil industry executive told CNN. Until the US Navy can guarantee that tankers won’t become floating pyres, the global economy remains held hostage by a 21-mile-wide strip of water.
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From: Beyond the Blue Horizon
Lone Wolf 50
As noted up thread who in the Pentagon / White House gamed this through ? It was a bloody obvious tactic given what happened back in the 1980,s and that was without the volume of Drones and missiles currently being used.
As has been stated LPG Carriers will go off with a very loud and expensive bang for the crew, and indeed surrounding ships and insurers, oil tankers less so, though you could end up with an ecological issue if fully laden outbound. If in bound an oil tanker high on its marks will take quite a bit of punishment before abandoning its crew as was found out in the 1980,s. The question given the number of escorts that are around now compared with back then is there enough, and indeed of the right size for the task. Obviously having assumed complete air superiority it helps, but it is the drones and small missiles which may well be the problem combined with mines and drone boats. I assume that the Iranian submarine fleet is maybe not functioning currently, so that may not be in the equation. All in all quite a task.
May I ask if you were involved in the first one by the way ?
Cheers
Mr Mac
As noted up thread who in the Pentagon / White House gamed this through ? It was a bloody obvious tactic given what happened back in the 1980,s and that was without the volume of Drones and missiles currently being used.
As has been stated LPG Carriers will go off with a very loud and expensive bang for the crew, and indeed surrounding ships and insurers, oil tankers less so, though you could end up with an ecological issue if fully laden outbound. If in bound an oil tanker high on its marks will take quite a bit of punishment before abandoning its crew as was found out in the 1980,s. The question given the number of escorts that are around now compared with back then is there enough, and indeed of the right size for the task. Obviously having assumed complete air superiority it helps, but it is the drones and small missiles which may well be the problem combined with mines and drone boats. I assume that the Iranian submarine fleet is maybe not functioning currently, so that may not be in the equation. All in all quite a task.
May I ask if you were involved in the first one by the way ?
Cheers
Mr Mac
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From: Beyond the Blue Horizon
Langleybaston
It was a lucrative gig the first time around for the merchant seamen, though over 400 paid with their lives.
Naval deaths were circa 100 of which 37 were on USS Stark. 12 tankers lost and a number heavily damaged and some effectively written off after making port.
My cousin served on them at the time, and indeed I did my first gig in the Sandpit back then, so had a ring side seat so to speak.
Cheers
Mr Mac
It was a lucrative gig the first time around for the merchant seamen, though over 400 paid with their lives.
Naval deaths were circa 100 of which 37 were on USS Stark. 12 tankers lost and a number heavily damaged and some effectively written off after making port.
My cousin served on them at the time, and indeed I did my first gig in the Sandpit back then, so had a ring side seat so to speak.
Cheers
Mr Mac
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
To use a boxing analogy: if one assumes (every plan carries within it planning assumptions) that the opponent will quit after a bloody nose, but the opponent chooses to fight until you throw the knockout punch, your boxing match turns into a slug fest.
I will ask, since I don't know, was this not a part of the plan of campaign?
If it wasn't, and given the experiences in the ME for the last 25 years by a lot of the people on the Joint Staff, why the heck not? Did they furlough or get rid off all of the people familiar with this region?
{snip}
Gee, who saw that coming?
In the short term, this would appear to be an own goal.
I will ask, since I don't know, was this not a part of the plan of campaign?
If it wasn't, and given the experiences in the ME for the last 25 years by a lot of the people on the Joint Staff, why the heck not? Did they furlough or get rid off all of the people familiar with this region?
Spoiler
{snip}
Gee, who saw that coming?
In the short term, this would appear to be an own goal.
It is a forlorn hope that an IQ, sobriety and personality test might be included in the talent quest that passes for the democratic process sometime soon. An additional requirement for the congress and senate may be... reading for comprehension, (start with something simple, like the US Constitution, the UN Charter, the Geneva Convention and then progress to the tough stuff, like Marvel's superhero stuff replete with cross of Jerusalem tattoos and all, after all, nothing ever went wrong with that line of activity...
We have seen 180/bbl before, when a USD actually had some value.
Its pretty cool to have the Blob assisting Vlad "the Impaler" Homer, and considering his advice on how to win friends and wars, he is of course a world recognised [fill in the blanks] with first hand knowledge of the meaning of the term, 3-DAY SMO, which is the mother of all D'oh moments. At the same moment, ET is asking to be handed Ukrainian technology in drones to assist [fill in the blanks]. I'm getting dizzy keeping up with who is playing who and who is paying.
Iran has never really needed buckets o' sunshine to mess with the rest... it had location, location, &, location. It has bog standard tubes to plink away at the artery that runs by its shores, and that would take continuous arc light activity to suppress, by now there is zero chance that the Iranians don't do base bleed, IIRC, Iran was quite adept at ERBB ammo, and that on a 155mm goes coast to coast. Targeting of a tub that is 3 football fields long doesn't need powerful juju or rocket science to undertake... thats old school, doesn't need shaheds, or other fancy stuff to go rowdy. There's 15-20 hours of transit that is not healthy, not even for the ships cat.
Iran doesn't need a navy to regulate the straits, Ukraine taught that lesson.
But at least the war is won, unless it isn't in which case rumour is that there will be "20 times" more rhetoric.
The strategy seems to less of a step towards a peace of prize, and more like a means to do a little insider trading on Wall Street, for which the loss of life on both sides so far seems like a small price to pay for profits for the needy's.
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From: surfing, watching for sharks
West Coast, “to ride a tiger” is an idiom, it doesn’t say anything about the capability of Iran, just the situation that Trump has put himself in. It comes from a Chinese proverb.
To ride a tiger: https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/riding+a+tiger
To ride a tiger: https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/riding+a+tiger
Put whatever narrative you want to it, it's still an attempt to support the narrative you're pushing, in other words propaganda.
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
The problem I see is the US will struggle to maintain a supply to the region, hence their need for a short war, unfortunately as the US needs to move tons of munitions half way across the world to the region, Iran doesn’t. Apparently Trump is stripping South Korea of its patriot batteries and shipping them to the Middle East.
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From: Near the coast
WC
BV
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From: Northumberland
From the BBC:
The cost of a barrel of Brent crude oil has dropped sharply in the last hour after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X that the US had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Straights of Hormuz. Oil fell from a high of $94 a barrel earlier on Tuesday, to then hit $82 a barrel at 17:30 GMT.
Wright's post on X has since disappeared.
It had said: "President Trump is maintaining stability of global energy during the military operations against Iran. "The U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets."
Wright's post on X has since disappeared.
It had said: "President Trump is maintaining stability of global energy during the military operations against Iran. "The U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets."
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From: Cambridge
Will the company owning the VLCC be willing to pay billions in environmental damages should it sink and shed its load of oil in Hormuz?
UAE's perfect beaches won't look so great to influencers when clogged with oil.
This isn't about the sailors, it's about broader liabilities.
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From: Texas
The game of musical chairs in Iran will continue as the 'whack a mole' game progresses.
Yep.
See also, mines.
Here's a bit from Newsweek that supports your point:
The enemy shoots back. You can't assume that they'll miss.
Not a bad take.
Iran has never really needed buckets o' sunshine to mess with the rest... it had location, location, &, location.
Iran doesn't need a navy to regulate the straits, Ukraine taught that lesson.
The problem I see is the US will struggle to maintain a supply to the region, hence their need for a short war, unfortunately as the US needs to move tons of munitions half way across the world to the region, Iran doesn’t. Apparently Trump is stripping South Korea of its patriot batteries and shipping them to the Middle East.
Originally Posted by Newsweek
The United States is moving one of its critical anti-ballistic missile air defense systems from South Korea to the Middle East, a sign of the strain 11 days of strikes across the region is putting on U.S. troops and its allies despite officials downplaying stockpile concerns. The Pentagon has also reportedly pulled interceptor missiles for the ground-based, U.S.-made Patriot air defense system from other regions, including the Indo-Pacific. The Department of Defense declined to comment when contacted by Newsweek. The U.S. has used up vast amounts of munitions since it started striking Iran on February 28, upping the ante on Tuesday as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said American forces would unleash their most powerful strikes yet.
Iran’s retaliatory attacks have homed in on U.S. military bases in the region and a dozen countries, putting pressure on expensive and increasingly scarce stocks of interceptor missiles for sophisticated air defense systems like THAAD and Patriot. Many of the Gulf states bearing the brunt of Iranian drone and missile strikes use U.S.-designed systems and missiles.
Iran’s military had claimed to have successfully struck at least four THAAD radars at different bases across the Middle East, including Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base.
Iran’s retaliatory attacks have homed in on U.S. military bases in the region and a dozen countries, putting pressure on expensive and increasingly scarce stocks of interceptor missiles for sophisticated air defense systems like THAAD and Patriot. Many of the Gulf states bearing the brunt of Iranian drone and missile strikes use U.S.-designed systems and missiles.
Iran’s military had claimed to have successfully struck at least four THAAD radars at different bases across the Middle East, including Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base.
Will the company owning the VLCC be willing to pay billions in environmental damages should it sink and shed its load of oil in Hormuz?
UAE's perfect beaches won't look so great to influencers when clogged with oil.
This isn't about the sailors, it's about broader liabilities.
UAE's perfect beaches won't look so great to influencers when clogged with oil.
This isn't about the sailors, it's about broader liabilities.
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From: EDLB
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanker_war
Now we have a lot better kit on the attackers side. I assume the pentagon still houses some brass which have a memory on those times.
Now we have a lot better kit on the attackers side. I assume the pentagon still houses some brass which have a memory on those times.
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From: UK
3 B-1B "Bone" Lancers took off from Fairford this afternoon. Was carried live on BBC News Channel and also seen it reported on Al Jazeera plus all over x/twitter so I don't think I'm risking OPSEC.
Interesting finger position on BBC News live coverage.
Interesting finger position on BBC News live coverage.
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
They are reporting there are up to 150 US wounded that is being hidden from the public, and it is reported that Iran is using their little boats, and I assume their speedboats, carrying up to 2 to 3 mines at a time, are mining the Straights of Hormuz.
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanker_war
Now we have a lot better kit on the attackers side. I assume the pentagon still houses some brass which have a memory on those times.
Now we have a lot better kit on the attackers side. I assume the pentagon still houses some brass which have a memory on those times.
We are about 10 days into this "excursion" as it has been now described. The justification for the whatever-this-is has changed more frequently than the date, and now, the latest (its early in the day, watch this space...) Is, this war is being fought for everyone else in the world. Tomorrow it will be for the health and care of the latest ascendant to the top of the squirrel cage.
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From: florida
Salute!
While waiting for tonight's raid, and PPrune ROE permitting, this debacle was due to happen, and my personal view from an adventure 50 years ago, it is better now than in a very short time from now when Iran has nuclear weapons with the ability (missiles) to strike Europe and UK, as well. Smuggling a nuke into the states will be a piece of cake if we open the borders again as we did from 2021 to 2025.
It is important to realize that the governing theocracy would launch nukes even knowing that they and their countrymen would become radioactive slag in less than an hour. I recall a beautiful day on September 2001 that those of the faith demonstrated this, albeit not from the current group. These folks are not like the Divine Wind warriors of the Empire in 1945, and their Emperor plus generals did not fly those planes on one way missions.
So we must recognize this and not find out if a tired, old warrior such as I and others of my experience are out in left field.
Gums sends...
While waiting for tonight's raid, and PPrune ROE permitting, this debacle was due to happen, and my personal view from an adventure 50 years ago, it is better now than in a very short time from now when Iran has nuclear weapons with the ability (missiles) to strike Europe and UK, as well. Smuggling a nuke into the states will be a piece of cake if we open the borders again as we did from 2021 to 2025.
It is important to realize that the governing theocracy would launch nukes even knowing that they and their countrymen would become radioactive slag in less than an hour. I recall a beautiful day on September 2001 that those of the faith demonstrated this, albeit not from the current group. These folks are not like the Divine Wind warriors of the Empire in 1945, and their Emperor plus generals did not fly those planes on one way missions.
So we must recognize this and not find out if a tired, old warrior such as I and others of my experience are out in left field.
Gums sends...
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From: yes
Salute!
While waiting for tonight's raid, and PPrune ROE permitting, this debacle was due to happen, and my personal view from an adventure 50 years ago, it is better now than in a very short time from now when Iran has nuclear weapons with the ability (missiles) to strike Europe and UK, as well. Smuggling a nuke into the states will be a piece of cake if we open the borders again as we did from 2021 to 2025.
It is important to realize that the governing theocracy would launch nukes even knowing that they and their countrymen would become radioactive slag in less than an hour. I recall a beautiful day on September 2001 that those of the faith demonstrated this, albeit not from the current group. These folks are not like the Divine Wind warriors of the Empire in 1945, and their Emperor plus generals did not fly those planes on one way missions.
So we must recognize this and not find out if a tired, old warrior such as I and others of my experience are out in left field.
Gums sends...
While waiting for tonight's raid, and PPrune ROE permitting, this debacle was due to happen, and my personal view from an adventure 50 years ago, it is better now than in a very short time from now when Iran has nuclear weapons with the ability (missiles) to strike Europe and UK, as well. Smuggling a nuke into the states will be a piece of cake if we open the borders again as we did from 2021 to 2025.
It is important to realize that the governing theocracy would launch nukes even knowing that they and their countrymen would become radioactive slag in less than an hour. I recall a beautiful day on September 2001 that those of the faith demonstrated this, albeit not from the current group. These folks are not like the Divine Wind warriors of the Empire in 1945, and their Emperor plus generals did not fly those planes on one way missions.
So we must recognize this and not find out if a tired, old warrior such as I and others of my experience are out in left field.
Gums sends...
We should never assume logical behaviour from people or scorpions.
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Great Gums!
It may be pre-ordained as the nature of the beast, maybe, but what is happening at present is not going to preclude such a state in the future, it acts to increase the likelihood of it eventuating. Giving a reprieve to Vlad the impaler adds a certain level of frustration to the strategy that is being employed.
It may be pre-ordained as the nature of the beast, maybe, but what is happening at present is not going to preclude such a state in the future, it acts to increase the likelihood of it eventuating. Giving a reprieve to Vlad the impaler adds a certain level of frustration to the strategy that is being employed.