Iran

[judyjudy]

Originally Posted by Herc15

Are you suggesting Bibi lost a finger recently? Im counting 4 fingers 1 thumb on each hand. Look up compression artifacts

Well, he did give the finger to the ayatollah…

[pax britanica]

I dont think the track of any aircraft just after take off- Fairford to Frome is probably about ten mins flying time gives any indication of destination so I dont think anyone is giving any info away and its all over local neighbourhood chat sites because they are so bloody noisy. in fact speaking to some neighbours it makes them reflect about the whole thing , which have ranged from if they had the resources would it be Ok for the Venezuelan airforce to kill Trump or what figures do we have for civilians.

Personally I am in favour of regime change in Iran having friends and acquaintances from Iran and their treatment particularly of women is appalling, A more open Iran would be an asset to the world an not just because they have oil they are a nation with history and culture and with 92 million people would be a strong moderating influence in the region which it badly needs . Another tragedy

[chopper2004]

fdr and sycamore nope that is Dart's Sky Cannon



cheers

[T28B]

Originally Posted by RAFEngO74to09

Pentagon Brief - 13 Mar 26
(8) Fox News on X: "WATCH LIVE: Pentagon officials hold press briefing on Iran conflict https://t.co/m1zjm3cvHw" / Twitter

For those who do not use X, the link in the quotes is more accessible.

https://youtu.be/kNNhYYdOMK8

[fdr]

Originally Posted by mahogany bob

America - finish the job - get rid of the Mullahs whilst you have the chance .
no other option
UK and Europe = give all the help you can .

What other countries of the 200+ ones that exist today are to be added to this Iist?

• Venezuela? (done a bit of that one...)
• Panama? (did some, might be time a do-over)
• Greenland? (just aspirational?)
• Canada? (1812 redux in reverse?)
• Oregon?
• California?
• Wisconsin?

At least there are great OPPLANS to copy for doing this:

1. GW1
2. GW2
3. AFG-1001
4. etc

We don't have to go back to Viet-nam, Korea, Somalia etc for the plans, the later ones were so much better.

The consensus building of a united NATO, united allied forces across the Atlantic have been memorable, amply aided by the fairly continuous stream of enthusiastic support for these at 2:00AM on Twitter/X, used to be Twitter/Truth Social.

I guess that invective, like beauty, is in the text of the authors.

The underlying problem is, nature abhors vacuums. This might result in the curious rush of air to the head of our politicians, but it also means that without a filler, there will be a fill, just not of choice medium. Iran would do well with a new government, one for the people, by the people etc, but that seems to not always work out as advertised either. They, the Iranians need to make the choice, having one forced upon them has a vanishingly small Pk of success, but does wonders for the need for homeland security.

I would think that the adults in the room might wish to determine first up what the reason for the current "excursion" is, then determine what the necessary outcome has to look like to resolve the reasons for whatever this is, and then to determine how that can be achieved, if that is possible at all.

Glad that the A-team is right on top of that... and not F-troop.

Nukes are bad, but there are a number of vectors by which that can arise, and increasing the justification for every country to have nukes as we move sadly by choice to a multipolar world strongly suggests that we are only at the start of this debacle. Wait until Maldives, Heard Island, Liechtenstein etc decide that they cannot rely on the status quo for defence of their interests, they need an independent WMD for their own survival. In all truth, the N of NBC is just one of 3 letters of options that exist to any nation on the planet. Of these, the B makes the N and the C pale into insignificance, but it tends to be rather indiscriminate.

[judyjudy]

Originally Posted by fdr

Wait until Maldives, Heard Island, Liechtenstein etc decide that they cannot rely on the status quo for defence of their interests, they need an independent WMD for their own survival.

Have a listen to Tom Lehrer’s “Who’s Next”

[Canary Boy]

So the US is considering sending a Marine unit (up to 5000 personnel) and associated warships. This could start to get very hot indeed. It may get pretty hot back in the US for the Donald if this strategy backfires

[TCAS FAN]

Originally Posted by Canary Boy

So the US is considering sending a Marine unit (up to 5000 personnel) and associated warships. This could start to get very hot indeed. It may get pretty hot back in the US for the Donald if this strategy backfires

Could this indicate an interest in taking over Qeshm Island on the northern side of the Straits of Hormuz? Control of this island, with its long runway would give US a commanding position?

[DogTailRed2]

Originally Posted by Canary Boy

So the US is considering sending a Marine unit (up to 5000 personnel) and associated warships. This could start to get very hot indeed. It may get pretty hot back in the US for the Donald if this strategy backfires

US military to send Marines and more warships to Middle East, reports say - BBC News

[Wokkafans]

Developing:

X - Formerly Twitter

https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2032...303697430?s=20

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by DogTailRed2

US military to send Marines and more warships to Middle East, reports say - BBC News

5000 Marines, and a while until they arrive. The hinterland of the Strait is probably home to many fanatical groups, and many of these will have very mobile weapons.
Can 5000 do the job? [OK I know it's the Marines but ..... ]

[dogle]

Originally Posted by fdr

Wait until Maldives, Heard Island, Liechtenstein etc decide that they cannot rely on the status quo for defence of their interests, they need an independent WMD for their own survival. In all truth, the N of NBC is just one of 3 letters of options that exist to any nation on the planet. Of these, the B makes the N and the C pale into insignificance, but it tends to be rather indiscriminate.

[My emphasis]
The prospect of the 'Big Big B' (the use of which the famous Captain Corquoran sought to deny ;-) ) being deployed has haunted me since long before a Chinese lab, allegedly affiliated with the PLA and the recipient of some US funding, engineered a deadly hybrid pathogen which escaped and went on to torment the world.

The doctrine of MAD worked - given a couple of close shaves - because both sides knew there would be nothing left to 'win' in the end.
Conversely, a suitable pathogen enables the destruction of the adversary population whilst keeping its infrastructure and resources intact, and ripe for the picking - and does not require fancy air assets or expensive rocketry for delivery.
(We were somewhat lucky - the biography of the Soviet bugmaster, who defected west with the impending collapse of the USSR, makes horrifying reading).

Consider the scenario:
- bad guys have developed very deadly and very transmissible bug.
- bad guys have kept that secret whilst producing ample stocks of an effective vaccine.
- bad guys deliver their 'surrender-or-die' ultimatum - "Nuke us, and destroy the only vaccine stocks?"
=> Checkmate?

What makes the B option so scary now is that we have seen - perhaps belatedly - that custom lethal bugs can be produced in very modest facilities - no need for an aviation industry, or vast stocks of munitions, and such facilities could very easily be hidden underground if not even within an apartment block.
This makes the B option potentially available on the cheap not only to rogue nations but even to well-funded smaller entities (the nutcases who dispensed nerve agents on the Tokyo metro were subsequently found to be extremely well-funded).

So, I do hope that the B option is not amongst the 'surprises' with which the IRGC seeks to threaten the world.
(and I'm no longer sure that B-weapons are going to remain 'indescriminate' for long, given the diabolical emergent biotechnology which may enable specific genetic groupings to be targeted).

... and apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln ... happy Easter

[Lonewolf_50]

dogle, you do realize that Mrs Lincoln was insane, right?

Originally Posted by Canary Boy

So the US is considering sending a Marine unit (up to 5000 personnel) and associated warships. This could start to get very hot indeed. It may get pretty hot back in the US for the Donald if this strategy backfires

Do you understand what an ARG and the embarked MAGTF can and cannot do?

Originally Posted by TCAS FAN

Could this indicate an interest in taking over Qeshm Island on the northern side of the Straits of Hormuz? Control of this island, with its long runway would give US a commanding position?

One of the few intelligent posts that I have seen in the last 48 hours. With USAF and IAF establishing not just air superiority, but Air Dominance, the door is open for a variety of other options. None are without risk, to be sure, but what you point to as a possible sequel in this Op Plan is feasible. But it won't be easy. The enemy gets a vote, and it's their home turf that is at risk. Not gonna take this lying down.

Originally Posted by Steepclimb

The irony is that in neutralising the Iranian regime he might neutralise himself to his loyalists. The Americans who don't want their American kids dying in pointless wars. ​​​​​

GHW Bush won the war (Gulf War 1991) and lost the subsequent election.
I am not sure that DJT has a grasp of how fickle the electorate can be. If only I could be one of the voices in his head, I'd drop a bit of advice, but his listening skills are sub optimal.

*Win the war* is not a guarantee of ballot box victory...Winston Churchill could share a few lessons learned on that one.

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by Steepclimb

I don't know what happened but it's a bad accident. Doesn't bear thinking about.

But it's war, accidents happen. Easy to say that.

But a consequence of war, sadly.

If there's a good thing about this war, it's possibly the downfall of the Mullahs and of the clown prince circus of the Trump regime, who leapt into this war thinking it would end overnight.

The irony is that in neutralising the Iranian regime he might neutralise himself to his loyalists. The Americans who don't want their American kids dying in pointless wars.

I'm not American but I have two military age boys. If I was American I'd be worried.
​​​​​

Roughly two weeks into this with a foe that has many advantages. Their navy is gone. Their Air Force is missing in action. Targets have been struck ahead of the Pentagon’s initial schedule. This isn’t a Nintendo shoot em up war game that lasts an hour, so it’ll never be as fast as the attention span of many pprune readers.

Trump himself, in a lucid moment counseled that this wasn’t an overnight operation. I didn’t want this war, but it’s here and has to be prosecuted to the fullest. That will take time, there will be more US KIA I imagine, but it must be completed, the media and the US bashers aside

[MarcK]

I don't think you can take out 93 million people in 640,000 square miles with any finite amount of ordnance.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by West Coast

so it’ll never be as fast as the attention span of many pprune readers.

So it isn't just me who has noticed that. Perhaps the internet shortens anyone's attention span.

[ORAC]

Roughly two weeks into this with a foe that has many advantages. Their navy is gone. Their Air Force is missing in action. Targets have been struck ahead of the Pentagon’s initial schedule. This isn’t a Nintendo shoot em up war game that lasts an hour, so it’ll never be as fast as the attention span of many pprune readers.

But they were never their primary weapons, drones are.

And, as with Ukraine, this is showing that the future of warfare is drone warfare, both offensive and defensive, on the battlefield. And Iran appears to have a very large supply of drones. A urgent question being do they have the buried factories to keep producing them or is it a finite supply?

Threr has been the suggestion that one option for the USA is to seize all the Iranian islands in the Gulf, including Kharg and Qeshm as part of a shield and to stop their oil exports Pending a final deal when they recommence under US control as with Venezuela). The question being do they have the C-UAS to hold them without heavy casualties from sustained Iranian drone attacks?

​​​​​​​Ukraine might have the answer to that.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by ORAC

One to fill the other to full at some point and RTB, the other to accompany and refuel the E-7 to it’s destination?

Presumably also carrying ground crew and equipment to support the detachment.

A39-003 recovered to perth and while I type this is on the way back to its home base


Edit - A39-005 is now on it way home as well
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=7cf868

[[email protected]]

What is going to happen when the 5000 marines start taking casualties?

Will Congress and the Senate finally grow a pair and stop this lunacy before it becomes another forever war?

You can’t defeat an ideology with bombs. How much ordanance has Bibi spaffed yet Hamas still exists.

[Bob Viking]

US tankers hit in Saudi

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-889882

Five damaged apparently.

BV