Iran

[ORAC]

..................

https://x.com/DefenceGeek/status/202...751244713?s=20

​​​​​​​Hill AFB F-35As on the move from Lakenheath #FreeIran!

--- Operation EPIC FURY ---

The F-35As from Hill AFB that arrived at RAF Lakenheath (EGUL) the other week are now heading forward!

Aircraft on the move are:

KC-135R "BOBBY01" 61-0324 #AE0263
KC-135R "BOBBY02" 62-3559 #ADFF0D
KC-135R "BOBBY11" 63-7996 #AE038F
KC-135R "BOBBY12" 63-8873 #AE07C4
KC-135R "BOBBY21" 60-0364 #AE0663
KC-135R "BOBBY22" TBC

F-35A "TREND??" 18-5445 #AE634F
F-35A "TREND??" 15-5201 #AE5D11
F-35A "TREND??" 15-5200 #AE5D10
F-35A "TREND??" 22-5692 #AE77BC
F-35A "TREND??" 18-5454 #AE6358
F-35A "TREND??" 20-5569 #AE6D7F
F-35A "TREND??" 18-5452 #AE6356
F-35A "TREND??" 18-5456 #AE635A
F-35A "TREND??" 15-5183 #AE5CFF
F-35A "TREND??" 17-5252 #AE616B
F-35A "TREND??" 22-5609 #AE7769
F-35A "TREND??" 18-5446 #AE6350

[petit plateau]

Originally Posted by WillFlyForCheese

Well . . . I do wonder whether China will test some of its military capability through Iran as part of a proxy war with the US. I've read (but can hardly figure out anymore what is legitimate information in the information age) - that China has a surveillance ship in the region, and may be providing Iran with significant capabilities - which could help launching attacks on US assets. Not sure whether any of it is true - but it certainly presents an interesting paradigm.

China supplied Iran with radars etc to replace Iranian losses (mostly of Russian systems) from the Israeli and US strikes a year ago. It would seem that these Chinese systems were not sufficient.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/c...irpower-shift/

[petit plateau]

Stalling tactics re international law on crimes of aggression by Russia on Ukraine ..... may have relevance in the Iran case .... it is a strange old world

"International lawyers began discussing the idea of creating a special tribunal for the crime of aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine as early as spring 2022.From the very start of the full-scale war, the global community became convinced that Russia’s attack on Ukraine is a grave violation of international law deserving of punishment – but the existing international law contains no provisions or mechanisms for an investigation that would legally prove the guilt of Russian leaders and bring them to account.

As a result, the leadership of a state that is a permanent member of the UN Security Council could act with impunity and not everyone was comfortable with this precedent.

The discussions on creating the special tribunal were not simple, but in spring 2025 a compromise was finally reached."

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/e...02/26/7232017/

[ORAC]

Marco Rubio Reminds me of the scene in Dr Strangelove where the President is advised to “pre-taliate” before the Russians retaliate

Pre-emptive retaliation - or preventative war and preemption* is a concept the US has espoused and used several times in the past. As of course did Israel in June 1967......

* https://nonproliferation.org/wp-cont...r/101wirtz.pdf

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...RAND_MG403.pdf

[langleybaston]

BBC says HMS Duncan is being readied to go to Cyprus.
Too little too late?

[Not_a_boffin]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

BBC says HMS Duncan is being readied to go to Cyprus.
Too little too late?

Possibly more a question of "right horse for the course?".If we are worried about a TBM threat, then fair enough.

However, thus far, the threat appears to be OWAS/drones against a point target. Whether an area defence destroyer - however capable - is a more appropriate option than a SkySabre battery and some more niche assets is a question that needs answering. However, not as urgently as the question as to why - as all the force movements were taking place - that said battery was not deployed in advance.....?

[atakacs]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

BBC says HMS Duncan is being readied to go to Cyprus.
Too little too late?

Better late than never.
TBH Iran managing to hit Akrotiri is impressive if symbolic at this stage.

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin

Possibly more a question of "right horse for the course?".If we are worried about a TBM threat, then fair enough.

However, thus far, the threat appears to be OWAS/drones against a point target. Whether an area defence destroyer - however capable - is a more appropriate option than a SkySabre battery and some more niche assets is a question that needs answering. However, not as urgently as the question as to why - as all the force movements were taking place - that said battery was not deployed in advance.....?

What assets does the Regiment have please?.
As force protection isits raison d'etre one would hope it has the tools.
I am not optimistic regarding any answers.

[Not_a_boffin]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

What assets does the Regiment have please?.
As force protection isits raison d'etre one would hope it has the tools.
I am not optimistic regarding any answers.

I think we both know the answer. However, absolutely nothing stopping the relevant RA unit deploying. I'd imagine the Rocks are busy enough with perimeter surveillance and defence.

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin

I think we both know the answer. However, absolutely nothing stopping the relevant RA unit deploying. I'd imagine the Rocks are busy enough with perimeter surveillance and defence.

Thank you. I have done some digging and come up with Sky Sabre, but as an RA aset and responsibility.
Next question: is Sky Sabre at RAF Akrotiri ............. surely?

[Not_a_boffin]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Thank you. I have done some digging and come up with Sky Sabre, but as an RA aset and responsibility.
Next question: is Sky Sabre at RAF Akrotiri ............. surely?

One would surely have thought so, hence my original supplementary question. Particularly as we apparently have some of our very expensive F35s sat there on what is in essence, an unhardened base.........

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by TWT

Here's 13 minutes of the Rubio press conference.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7UYilld5Dc

Clear, concise, on point, and eloquent for the first 3 minutes.
(Whether one agrees with the opinions and positions is a different thing, but the message was well delivered).

ORAC:
Yeah, the pre-emptive thing has been criticized for about the last 20 years.

What the Secretary of State may not appreciate as a subtext of his message was the following:
"We let the Israelis get us into this round"
since he indicated that there was full awareness of the IDF strikes coming.
Or he may appreciate that and not care.

petit plateau Thanks for the radar article.

[Biggus]

The open source articles I have seen say the UK is "considering" sending HMS Duncan to the Eastern Mediterranean.

Considering and actually doing are too very different things.

And the transit time would be?

[Recc]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

What the Secretary of State may not appreciate as a subtext of his message was the following:
"We let the Israelis get us into this round"
since he indicated that there was full awareness of the IDF strikes coming.
Or he may appreciate that and not care.

That struck me too. Seems, on the face of it, fairly humiliating for the admin to have to admit that Israel has a veto over their attempt to pursue a negotiated settlement. Presumably this explanation is intended to fit around the war powers act?

[57mm]

IIRC, Akronelli suffered a mortar attack some years back, with minor damage to a hard standing

[Lonewolf_50]

Biggus:
I won't speak for the current Royal Navy, but when I was in the Sixth Fleet (80's) it was roughly a five day transit from The Straits to the Eastern Med, assuming a 15 knot SOA, depending upon the various exercises and ops we needed to do along the way.

Originally Posted by Recc

Seems, on the face of it, fairly humiliating for the admin

Maybe in your eyes, but they have demonstrated, time and again, that they don't care when it comes to optics.
I'll get back to you on the War Powers thing, the Congress was supposed to do something yesterday...

[GeeRam]

Originally Posted by Biggus

The open source articles I have seen say the UK is "considering" sending HMS Duncan to the Eastern Mediterranean.

Considering and actually doing are too very different things.

And the transit time would be?

At least 7 days from leaving Pompey I would think.

[Hangarless]

Israel strikes leadership meeting. Probably be a few hours before we hear if they were successful or not.

Israeli forces struck an Iranian Supreme Council gathering on Tuesday as the group was meeting to choose a successor to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a senior Israeli official told Fox News.

Fox News' Trey Yingst reported the update on live on Fox on Tuesday morning, saying the move "speaks to the Israeli intelligence about this war."

"They just targeted the meeting in Tehran where what's left of the leadership was gathering to choose a new Supreme Leader," Yingst said.

[Recc]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Biggus:
Maybe in your eyes, but they have demonstrated, time and again, that they don't care when it comes to optics.

Really? My impression is that they don't care about optics except if it makes them look weak. Therefore, the assertion (which I don't really believe) that they were just following the Israeli lead seems notable. Please do post on the war powers act/ Congress, I'd be interested to hear your take on it.

[ORAC]

Originally Posted by langleybaston
Thank you. I have done some digging and come up with Sky Sabre, but as an RA aset and responsibility.
Next question: is Sky Sabre at RAF Akrotiri ............. surely?

RAF Regiment (34 Sqn) ORCUS counter-drone system including Giraffe radar was deployed to Akrotiri at the beginning of February.

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