Iran

[ORAC]

So, are we going to have Iraq making a copy of the American copy* of the Russian copy of the Iranian Shahed?

(* Including integrated Starlink aerial which is dangling at the end of it’s cable)

Video

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/20...499142951?s=20

​​​​​​​Locals in Iraq appear to have recovered a crashed and almost entirely intact Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS), an American copy of the Iranian Shahed-136 Attack Drone, which is confirmed to have been used recently by Task Force Scorpion Strike during U.S. attacks on Iran as part of Operation Epic Fury.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Recc

Really? My impression is that they don't care about optics except if it makes them look weak. Therefore, the assertion (which I don't really believe) that they were just following the Israeli lead seems notable. Please do post on the war powers act/ Congress, I'd be interested to hear your take on it.

As to the War Powers act, and its limitation on military operations: right now Congress is in the discussion stage. While they do that, military ops will doubtless continue apace.

I was under the impression that yesterday they were going to do something, but I erred.
The discussion stage will take a few days, and estimates are that by the end of the week a position will be taken.
It's anybody's guess how much bipartisan support there will be for a resolution calling out the President. A few of his GOP/MAGA allies have spoken out against the current operation, but I am not sure how far that disenchantment will go. The core question as related to this thread is how or when they could curtail the operations if the get a consensus to come out against it.

As I look at the recent example in Venezuela, my guess is that the op will be short enough to stay within certain limits...and was planned that way.

I'll do some more digging, but I think that the current operation will terminate well before the standard 60 day limitation...the link covers some of the language and what Congress does, or doesn't do, and what requirements there are as regards operations of 60 days or less, or operations of six months or less...depends on the case. Here is why I think they'll wrap it up in the four weeks already discussed quite openly:

Sixty days after the President first reports to Congress (or was required to do so), the use of the Armed Forces is automatically terminated unless Congress has declared war or passed legislation authorizing the action. The President may extend this 60-day period an additional 30 days by certifying in writing to Congress the need for continued use of force.

The other unknown is what kinetic measures Iran will continue to use, given that they are under attack. I've seen nothing about the disposition of their submarines, and they've got various other assets not yet in play that may or may not be targeted.

You can take a lot of stuff out in four weeks.

But I caveat all of the above with this: if Iran keeps sending attack drones and missiles at various Gulf Allies, those nations may appeal to Washington to cease hostilities depending on how badly they feel the blows.

[Hangarless]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

As to the War Powers act, and its limitation on military operations: right now Congress is in the discussion stage. While they do that, military ops will doubtless continue apace.

I was under the impression that yesterday they were going to do something, but I erred.
The discussion stage will take a few days, and estimates are that by the end of the week a position will be taken.
It's anybody's guess how much bipartisan support there will be for a resolution calling out the President. A few of his GOP/MAGA allies have spoken out against the current operation, but I am not sure how far that disenchantment will go. The core question as related to this thread is how or when they could curtail the operations if the get a consensus to come out against it.

As I look at the recent example in Venezuela, my guess is that the op will be short enough to stay within certain limits...and was planned that way.
I'll do some more digging.

John Fetterman was just out saying that he is of the opinion that POTUS is acting within the bounds of the War Powers Act and that there is compliance with the notifications that are required.

Videos also out where Pelosi defends the Act when Obama used it.

[ORAC]

[Lonewolf_50]

ORAC: thanks for that update.

Originally Posted by ORAC

So, are we going to have Iraq making a copy of the American copy* of the Russian copy of the Iranian Shahed?
(* Including integrated Starlink aerial which is dangling at the end of it’s cable)

Sure, why not? May you live in interesting times.

Originally Posted by Hangarless

John Fetterman was just out saying that he is of the opinion that POTUS is acting within the bounds of the War Powers Act and that there is compliance with the notifications that are required.
Videos also out where Pelosi defends the Act when Obama used it.

I edited my post to try and keep my reply to Recc tied to this thread.
I don't think that your response - the bit about Obama - belongs anywhere other than the US Politics thread
Fetterman's statement seems to align with my slightly deeper dive, though.

[AR1]

Originally Posted by petit plateau

China supplied Iran with radars etc to replace Iranian losses (mostly of Russian systems) from the Israeli and US strikes a year ago. It would seem that these Chinese systems were not sufficient.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/c...irpower-shift/

The reports I've found regarding this asset come from Feb 2026, just a few weeks prior to the current ops. Assumption that this is not operational or at least not integrated into defences. Might the delivery or proposed delivery of the system hastened action in this case?

[Sobelena]

But I caveat all of the above with this: if Iran keeps sending attack drones and missiles at various Gulf Allies, those nations may appeal to Washington to cease hostilities depending on how badly they feel the blows.

​​​​​​​Unless, of course, they decide to join in with maximum force. It can go either way.

[Out Of Trim]

T45 Destroyer HMS Dragon to deploy to Eastern Mediterranean for defence of Cyprus.

[Canary Boy]

Genuine question - is there anything to be done to secure the Straits of Hormuz? If no, financial issues caused by energy prices spiralling along with Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure may have a huge impact on whether the ‘war’ can continue to be prosecuted

[Biggus]

Portsmouth Harbour shipping movements (open source) has HMS Duncan down to depart at 1220 tomorrow.

Various contributors on here seem to be estimating a transit time of 7 days. Don't know if she'll be trackable on AIS.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Sobelena

​​​​​​​Unless, of course, they decide to join in with maximum force. It can go either way.

For sure.
My confidence in the competence of the Gulf nations' military is very low, however, that's based on my experiences from a couple of decades ago, so my view may be well out of date.

Originally Posted by Canary Boy

Genuine question - is there anything to be done to secure the Straits of Hormuz? If no, financial issues caused by energy prices spiralling along with Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure may have a huge impact on whether the ‘war’ can continue to be prosecuted

How is this any different from the 8 year period in the 80's where the Iraq-Iran War impacted oil tanker flow, and (my memory is hazy) about 40 tankers were taken out.
What makes today's risks heavier? (Or is it not a bigger risk, and we too soon forget?)

[EDLB]

Canary Boy
The Hamas rocketry and Gaza situation indicates, what would be required to eliminate the threat on Hormus shipping. The street will be extremely difficult to secure short of a regime change in Iran. Opening up this pandoras box was way easier than to get a lid on it. Energy prices are the biggest lever Iran has at his hands.

[Biggus]

Lonewolf_50,

I suspect that the world is a much more risk averse place today than it was in the 80s, certainly if the UK is anything to go by, where H&S seems to be dominant in the workplace.

[Mr Mac]

Lonewolf 50
My cousin served on tankers during that period, and did many transits, and indeed was on one of the ones shot up. They used to have to wait off Muscat to get special insurance clearance, and had a limited time in the Gulf while that cover was in place. He said the missiles were less of an issue than being strafed, though given the clear lack of an Iranian Air Force now that should not be an issue, though missile guidance and indeed Drones have all changed, and improved in the intervening 30 plus years.

I do not think tanker design has basically changed that much, and indeed some of those hulls maybe on their second Rodeo in the straits so to speak. I have emailed him given the ongoing discussion and indeed what is happening again there, and he said there were quite a few damaged and some severely back then, but he did not think the loss rate was as high as 40, he believed it to be in the low teens. He did say that he thinks you will start to see the convoying again of tankers in the not too distant future, as its just too much of an important product and choke point.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by petit plateau

China supplied Iran with radars etc to replace Iranian losses (mostly of Russian systems) from the Israeli and US strikes a year ago. It would seem that these Chinese systems were not sufficient.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/c...irpower-shift/

I would think the apparent ineffectiveness of their air defense assets, both in Venezuela (mainly Chinese) and Iran (Russian and Chinese) will not have gone unnoticed among the military leadership of both Russia and China.

[ORAC]

Genuine question - is there anything to be done to secure the Straits of Hormuz?

Well first eliminate the Iranian navy. According to their press release the USN has already eliminated their surface fleet and the tweets and notes I’ve seen show the fast patrol boat and min sub fleets have been destroyed in their harbours - so that should mean the gulf is secure against sea mines.

Next would be their extensive number of anti-ship missile launchers along the coast, but I would presume all the fixed site ones are now wreckage. That leaves the mobile systems and hopefully there are ESM aircraft watching for emissions and CAPs ready to engage any which light-up.

That leaves their drones - which they seem to have been using effectively to date.

Not sure how you stop all of them, but jamming of control frequencies would be one solution , but wouldn’t stop those with NVIDIA Jetson, or equivalent, autonomous targeting PCs which would need C-UAS, guns etc on the tankers themselves.

* e.g. https://balticsentinel.eu/8284227/uk...and-engagement

https://medium.com/illumination/fpv-...i-0caeb4b3ca69

A threat that didn’t exist during the first tanker war and a difficult one to defend against - just as on the battlefield.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Biggus

Lonewolf_50,
I suspect that the world is a much more risk averse place today than it was in the 80s,

Makes sense, in terms of how the pain is felt, and Russian crude is off the market and the insurers are pulling in their marks (or raising their fees...)

Originally Posted by Mr Mac

My cousin served on tankers during that period, and did many transits, and indeed was on one of the ones shot up. They used to have to wait off Muscat to get special insurance clearance, and had a limited time in the Gulf while that cover was in place.
He said the missiles were less of an issue than being strafed, though given the clear lack of an Iranian Air Force now that should not be an issue, though missile guidance and indeed Drones have all changed, and improved in the intervening 30 plus years.

... he did not think the loss rate was as high as 40, he believed it to be in the low teens. He did say that he thinks you will start to see the convoying again of tankers in the not too distant future, as its just too much of an important product and choke point.

I may have lumped the 'severely damaged maybe written off' ones with the ones actually sunk. Sorry, it's been over 30 years since I presented that in a briefing.

And you are waaaaay ahead of me.
I was about to raise the topic of convoy / escorts / re-flagged vessels... but there is a difference this time around.
1. It isn't both Iran and Iraq shooting them up
2. Re-flagging them as Reagan did will attract missiles!
3. Drones rewrite the art of the possible for those attacking tankers in the Gulf.

Anyone heard about Iranian submarines? They can lay mines...with nobody the wiser until "boom" occurs.

[West Coast]

Anyone heard about Iranian submarines? They can lay mines...with nobody the wiser until "boom" occurs.

​​​​​​​Read that a submarine was sunk, not sure I believe it as it’s not being reported elsewhere.

[MostlyHarmless]

Originally Posted by ORAC

So, are we going to have Iraq making a copy of the American copy* of the Russian copy of the Iranian Shahed?

Not sure I'd be so cavalier rough handling what is essentially a UXB

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by ORAC

RAF Regiment (34 Sqn) ORCUS counter-drone system including Giraffe radar was deployed to Akrotiri at the beginning of February.

​​​​​​​Thank you very much.