Iran
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From: Peripatetic
NASA FIRMS showed fire overnight on Bandar Abbas.
While we wait for newer satellite imagery already can take a guess at a couple ships that are berthed in this area.
IRINS Makran (K-441)
2x Alvand-class frigates
IRIS Alborz (F-72)
IRIS Sabalan (F-73)
1-2x Moudge-class frigates
IRIS Sahand (F-74)
IRIS Dena (F-75)
1x Light Information Signal Frigate
IRIS Zagros (H-313)
2-4x Kaman/Sina Class FIAC
1-2 Hendijan-class Patrol Boats
1 Minesweeper
IRIS Shahin (M-111)
In Drydock
1x Kilo Class Submarine IRIS Nooh (902)
2x Hengam Class Landing Ship Heavy
1x Moudge Class Frigate IRIS Taftan
While we wait for newer satellite imagery already can take a guess at a couple ships that are berthed in this area.
IRINS Makran (K-441)
2x Alvand-class frigates
IRIS Alborz (F-72)
IRIS Sabalan (F-73)
1-2x Moudge-class frigates
IRIS Sahand (F-74)
IRIS Dena (F-75)
1x Light Information Signal Frigate
IRIS Zagros (H-313)
2-4x Kaman/Sina Class FIAC
1-2 Hendijan-class Patrol Boats
1 Minesweeper
IRIS Shahin (M-111)
In Drydock
1x Kilo Class Submarine IRIS Nooh (902)
2x Hengam Class Landing Ship Heavy
1x Moudge Class Frigate IRIS Taftan
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Two videos to compare
UPDATE: Based on shared footage online, it appears two separate F-15 jets may have crashed — one fully engulfed in flames, the other with fire visible near the right engine only.
This could explain Kuwait’s announcement that several jets crashed.
This could explain Kuwait’s announcement that several jets crashed.
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From: Peripatetic
Gulf of Hormuz update
Hormuz March 1 Recap
- The Strait remains fairly empty, BUT take note of the tankers (red icons) arriving at the anchorages to the east (in ballast) and to the west (loaded)
- The cancellation of previous WAR RISK policies, have led companies to seek out new coverage before sending their ships through the Strait. Expect a War Risk of between 0.5 to 1%.
- Loading of tankers throughout the Gulf continues, including Iran loading their tankers at Kharg Island
- While tankers are holding on each side of the Strait, there is an estimated 100 to 200 million barrels of oil stored in tankers around the world, waiting to be sold, in particular at or near Singapore; not to mention oil moving on loaded tankers.
- Tankers have been ordered to slow down their arrival off Hormuz due to the attacks in the Gulf of Oman
- During the Tanker War of the 80s, 411 ships were hit and 55 tankers lost. The attacks escalated over the course of the conflict. The current action is different as it was a sudden and sharp attack leaving the shipping companies scrambling for coverage by either naval forces (which do not appear to be coming) or via War Risk insurance.
- Expect to see ships moving through the Strait as soon as insurance coverage is locked in, plus there will be a need to shift empty tankers into the Gulf to load from the wells to prevent shutdowns.
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From: Peripatetic
………….
breaking: Brig. Gen. Bahman behmard, recently appointed commander-in-chief of irgc, was killed in a us–israeli airstrike today while inside an underground command centre in sanandaj with other second-tier iranian military leaders.
Official confirmation is awaited.
Official confirmation is awaited.
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From: Peripatetic
Assessment of remaining Iranian IRBM stocks.
The IDF released an estimate that Iran had reconstituted its medium range arsenal to approx. 2,500 missiles since the 12 Day war last June. They’ve fired about 250–300 so far and the Air Force has struck around 500 missile related targets.
The ones capable of reaching Israel are liquid fueled like the Shahab-3 family (Shahab-3, Ghadr, Emad) and the Khorramshahr series, plus solid-fueled ones like Sejjil, Kheibar Shekan, Haj Qasem, and related Fateh-family extensions.
Liquid-fueled Shahab-3, Ghadr, and Emad are larger and heavier measuring 15–18 m long with a 1.25 diameter, weighing anywhere between 17 and 24 tons, while newer solid-fueled ones, especially the Kheibar Shekan and similar types, are more compact -- around 11–13 m long and 1 m diameter -- and weight roughly half at 5-10 tons.
Iran uses road-mobile transporter erector launchers (TELs) for nearly all of these missiles. They are typically modified commercial heavy trucks with 6x6, 8x8, or 10x10 chassis like Mercedes, MAN, or domestic copies, or extended trailers with hydraulic erectors. Single missile per TEL is standard for most MRBMs given their dimensions, especially the larger liquid-fueled ones. Similarly logistical transport vehicles like the one below typically carry one at a time.
It’s unsure what portion of the 500 strikes aimed at Iranian missile capabilities targeted MRBM TELs and transport vehicles, or other missile targets such as short range, production, or logistical assets, but the MRBM arsenal is largely stored in hardened, deeply buried ‘missile cities’ so it’s mostly an above surface missile hunting job as documented in in the IDF update below (qt).
Assuming that only half of the those strikes destroyed a single MRBM to establish a reasonable low end estimate, Iranian forces have already expended or lost 500 (say, 250 launched and 250 destroyed) or more from their estimated 2,500 magazine depth. At the current intensity of the conflict, the remaining 2,000 missile arsenal, capable of reaching Israel, would be spent in 5 days or so.
On face value, this would explain the government’s plan to open airspace for commercial flights by Friday next week. However, since the stated objective of IRGC commanders and Iranian officials is to outlast the Israeli-US campaign, it is likely to pace itself rather than attempt to sustain its current intensity, or launch a mass salvo. If the goal is survival and denial of the enemies coercive aims, then preserving arsenal to continue the fight longer is a strategic imperative.
Further constraining the regime, is a heavily degraded TEL inventory creating a salvo generation bottleneck. Moreover, any launch from inside a subterranean launch site through portals or silos leaves a thermal and electromagnetic signature that overhead ISR can quickly detect and that can subsequently be attacked.
Taken together, it is likely that the war will settle into a slower drip of a dozen or two missiles launched at Israel, unless a regime survival tripwire is hit and a decision is taken to use what’s left or risk losing the opportunity to attack.
The ones capable of reaching Israel are liquid fueled like the Shahab-3 family (Shahab-3, Ghadr, Emad) and the Khorramshahr series, plus solid-fueled ones like Sejjil, Kheibar Shekan, Haj Qasem, and related Fateh-family extensions.
Liquid-fueled Shahab-3, Ghadr, and Emad are larger and heavier measuring 15–18 m long with a 1.25 diameter, weighing anywhere between 17 and 24 tons, while newer solid-fueled ones, especially the Kheibar Shekan and similar types, are more compact -- around 11–13 m long and 1 m diameter -- and weight roughly half at 5-10 tons.
Iran uses road-mobile transporter erector launchers (TELs) for nearly all of these missiles. They are typically modified commercial heavy trucks with 6x6, 8x8, or 10x10 chassis like Mercedes, MAN, or domestic copies, or extended trailers with hydraulic erectors. Single missile per TEL is standard for most MRBMs given their dimensions, especially the larger liquid-fueled ones. Similarly logistical transport vehicles like the one below typically carry one at a time.
It’s unsure what portion of the 500 strikes aimed at Iranian missile capabilities targeted MRBM TELs and transport vehicles, or other missile targets such as short range, production, or logistical assets, but the MRBM arsenal is largely stored in hardened, deeply buried ‘missile cities’ so it’s mostly an above surface missile hunting job as documented in in the IDF update below (qt).
Assuming that only half of the those strikes destroyed a single MRBM to establish a reasonable low end estimate, Iranian forces have already expended or lost 500 (say, 250 launched and 250 destroyed) or more from their estimated 2,500 magazine depth. At the current intensity of the conflict, the remaining 2,000 missile arsenal, capable of reaching Israel, would be spent in 5 days or so.
On face value, this would explain the government’s plan to open airspace for commercial flights by Friday next week. However, since the stated objective of IRGC commanders and Iranian officials is to outlast the Israeli-US campaign, it is likely to pace itself rather than attempt to sustain its current intensity, or launch a mass salvo. If the goal is survival and denial of the enemies coercive aims, then preserving arsenal to continue the fight longer is a strategic imperative.
Further constraining the regime, is a heavily degraded TEL inventory creating a salvo generation bottleneck. Moreover, any launch from inside a subterranean launch site through portals or silos leaves a thermal and electromagnetic signature that overhead ISR can quickly detect and that can subsequently be attacked.
Taken together, it is likely that the war will settle into a slower drip of a dozen or two missiles launched at Israel, unless a regime survival tripwire is hit and a decision is taken to use what’s left or risk losing the opportunity to attack.
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From: Down Sarf
Joined: Dec 1999
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From: Oop North, UK
4 Weeks
So Trump is saying this might last 4 weeks, I think this may be optimistic so what happens if it keeps going? Having observed Trump in the past he will probably get bored of it, claim some sort of victory and pull out, now he has started it he needs to finish it!
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From: UK
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From: Near the coast
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From: London
What are the odds of Fairford now coming into play for bomber ops? Personally I think its unlikely - the US won't be too happy with any movements being micro-reported by the Brit spotterati.
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From: Peripatetic
US has now confirmed that 3 x F-15Es were shot down in a friendly fire incident. All 6 aircrew are confirmed as safe.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — US military says Kuwait ‘mistakenly shot down’ 3 American F-15E Strike Eagles aircraft during combat.
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From: Berlin
The presidential jet B767 of Netanyahu is evacuated to Berlin where it is parked.
Germany is one of the main founders of the ICC
in The Hague.
Netanyahu has an arrest warrent against him by the ICC.
Will there be a risk to put a chain on this Jet?
Falck
Germany is one of the main founders of the ICC
in The Hague.
Netanyahu has an arrest warrent against him by the ICC.
Will there be a risk to put a chain on this Jet?
Falck
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From: London/Oxford/New York
This is not an economic war.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
USAF United States Air Force - Middle East Activity (Coronet 045E)
Operation Lions Roar / Epic Fury - D+2 2 March - 0905z
McDonnell Douglas F-15E Strike Eagle 7x
"SJ" 87-0193 - TABOR 61
"SJ" 88-1704 - TABOR 62
"SJ" 89-0505 - TABOR 63
"SJ" 90-0229 - TABOR 64
"SJ" 87-0177 - TABOR 65
"SJ" 88-1670 - TABOR 66
"MO" 87-0209 - TABOR 25
Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 1x
#AE023B 57-1440 - GOLD 05 Boeing
KC-46 Pegasus 1x
#AE63CB 21-46095 - GOLD 06
Six more F-15E Strike Eagles from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base have departed RAF Lakenheath this morning for the Middle East.
TABOR 61-66 flt is supported by GOLD 05 from RAF Mildenhall and GOLD 06 from Ramstein.
TABOR 25 appears to have been an airspare, and has returned to Lakenheath.
Operation Lions Roar / Epic Fury - D+2 2 March - 0905z
McDonnell Douglas F-15E Strike Eagle 7x
"SJ" 87-0193 - TABOR 61
"SJ" 88-1704 - TABOR 62
"SJ" 89-0505 - TABOR 63
"SJ" 90-0229 - TABOR 64
"SJ" 87-0177 - TABOR 65
"SJ" 88-1670 - TABOR 66
"MO" 87-0209 - TABOR 25
Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 1x
#AE023B 57-1440 - GOLD 05 Boeing
KC-46 Pegasus 1x
#AE63CB 21-46095 - GOLD 06
Six more F-15E Strike Eagles from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base have departed RAF Lakenheath this morning for the Middle East.
TABOR 61-66 flt is supported by GOLD 05 from RAF Mildenhall and GOLD 06 from Ramstein.
TABOR 25 appears to have been an airspare, and has returned to Lakenheath.
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From: Peripatetic
Iranian forces have reportedly begun to target energy infrastructure in the region, with an Iranian drone attacking the Doha West power station in Kuwait this morning, setting a fuel tank on fire.
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From: Peripatetic
Pictures of at least 3 of the downed F-15E are emerging as they were picked up.
All survived but not uninjured one seems to have lost a few finger on one hand.
All survived but not uninjured one seems to have lost a few finger on one hand.
