Assessment of remaining Iranian IRBM stocks.
The IDF released an estimate that Iran had reconstituted its medium range arsenal to approx. 2,500 missiles since the 12 Day war last June. They’ve fired about 250–300 so far and the Air Force has struck around 500 missile related targets.
The ones capable of reaching Israel are liquid fueled like the Shahab-3 family (Shahab-3, Ghadr, Emad) and the Khorramshahr series, plus solid-fueled ones like Sejjil, Kheibar Shekan, Haj Qasem, and related Fateh-family extensions.
Liquid-fueled Shahab-3, Ghadr, and Emad are larger and heavier measuring 15–18 m long with a 1.25 diameter, weighing anywhere between 17 and 24 tons, while newer solid-fueled ones, especially the Kheibar Shekan and similar types, are more compact -- around 11–13 m long and 1 m diameter -- and weight roughly half at 5-10 tons.
Iran uses road-mobile transporter erector launchers (TELs) for nearly all of these missiles. They are typically modified commercial heavy trucks with 6x6, 8x8, or 10x10 chassis like Mercedes, MAN, or domestic copies, or extended trailers with hydraulic erectors. Single missile per TEL is standard for most MRBMs given their dimensions, especially the larger liquid-fueled ones. Similarly logistical transport vehicles like the one below typically carry one at a time.
It’s unsure what portion of the 500 strikes aimed at Iranian missile capabilities targeted MRBM TELs and transport vehicles, or other missile targets such as short range, production, or logistical assets, but the MRBM arsenal is largely stored in hardened, deeply buried ‘missile cities’ so it’s mostly an above surface missile hunting job as documented in in the IDF update below (qt).
Assuming that only half of the those strikes destroyed a single MRBM to establish a reasonable low end estimate, Iranian forces have already expended or lost 500 (say, 250 launched and 250 destroyed) or more from their estimated 2,500 magazine depth. At the current intensity of the conflict, the remaining 2,000 missile arsenal, capable of reaching Israel, would be spent in 5 days or so.
On face value, this would explain the government’s plan to open airspace for commercial flights by Friday next week. However, since the stated objective of IRGC commanders and Iranian officials is to outlast the Israeli-US campaign, it is likely to pace itself rather than attempt to sustain its current intensity, or launch a mass salvo. If the goal is survival and denial of the enemies coercive aims, then preserving arsenal to continue the fight longer is a strategic imperative.
Further constraining the regime, is a heavily degraded TEL inventory creating a salvo generation bottleneck. Moreover, any launch from inside a subterranean launch site through portals or silos leaves a thermal and electromagnetic signature that overhead ISR can quickly detect and that can subsequently be attacked.
Taken together, it is likely that the war will settle into a slower drip of a dozen or two missiles launched at Israel, unless a regime survival tripwire is hit and a decision is taken to use what’s left or risk losing the opportunity to attack.