Iran

[Winemaker]

At no point is U-235 "glowing." It's unlikely to even be warm. In a cloud chamber a reasonably small chunk will look interesting, but far below the activity of Americium that is used in home ionization detectors for fire alerting.

Yep. U-235 is actually not very radioactive, with a half life of approximately 700 million years. For reference, the shorter the half life the more radioactive emissions. For example, P-238 has a half life of about 88 years and is used in space craft for thermo-electric generators because of its heat of decay. P-239, used in weapons, has a half life of about 24,000 years. Not nice stuff, but atomic bomb pits were handled in open air back in the Los Alamos days; just don't breath the dust.

[tartare]

Originally Posted by Winemaker

Yep. U-235 is actually not very radioactive, with a half life of approximately 700 million years. For reference, the shorter the half life the more radioactive emissions. For example, P-238 has a half life of about 88 years and is used in space craft for thermo-electric generators because of its heat of decay. P-239, used in weapons, has a half life of about 24,000 years. Not nice stuff, but atomic bomb pits were handled in open air back in the Los Alamos days; just don't breath the dust.

My reference to glowing was deeply sarcastic - a la Homer Simpson...



A pit.



UF6 sublimate at 56 degrees Celsius.

[Bob Viking]

The news says that Trump has approved the attack plans for the Fordo plant but he is just waiting to see if Iran wish to surrender first.

I am left wondering if he is actually waiting to see if Tom Cruise is available to lead the strike package and if all the F-14s have in fact been destroyed. After all many other elements of the news seem to emulate the movie in a classic case of life imitating art.

BV

[jolihokistix]

So is the ancient Chinese paradox to be tested once more? A ‘sword-shield’ situation. 矛盾, = a sword/shield, contradiction in terms, or paradox. The biggest bunker buster in the world, against the deepest bunker.
Mr P will surely be awake and watching.

[TWT]

There's a good chance the MOP's won't go deep enough as the IAEA says the most sensitive areas, which they claim to have
visited, are half a mile underground.

Only one way to find out.

[tartare]

Originally Posted by TWT

There's a good chance the MOP's won't go deep enough as the IAEA says the most sensitive areas, which they claim to have
visited, are half a mile underground.

Only one way to find out.

Ship one drops MOP1, and then MOP2 directly on the impact site.
Ship two drops MOP3 on MOP2 impact site and MOP4 on MPO 3 impact site.

[TWT]

Definitely needs Tom Cruise on the job

[dagenham]

Originally Posted by tartare

Latest reports seem to indicate a strike plan has been approved, but Trump is waiting to see if the Iranians will still come to the table - ignoring the learned experience that they've been salami slicing the west for the last 10-15 years on the nuclear issue.
Also Israel definitely has a plan to enter Fordo using special forces, and have informed the US - crazy brave.If the Israelis decide to enter Fordow from the ground, using special forces to destroy the centrifuge halls, what might that operation look like?

ChatGPT said:

A ground operation by Israeli special forces to enter and destroy Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) would be one of the most daring and logistically complex military operations in modern history. Fordow is built deep inside a mountain, near the city of Qom, and is one of Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facilities. Here's what such an operation might involve, based on known capabilities and military doctrine:

🔍 Mission Objectives

• Infiltrate the Fordow site undetected.
  
• Access the underground centrifuge halls.
  
• Plant demolition charges to destroy or severely disable uranium enrichment capabilities.
  
• Exfiltrate the team safely, if possible.
  

🚧 Operational Challenges

1. Location & Fortification
   • Fordow is buried under 80–100 meters of rock.
     
   • Built to withstand aerial bombardment (deep-earth facility).
     
   • Surrounded by IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) troops and advanced surveillance.
     
   • Limited access roads and entrance points, which are likely booby-trapped or guarded.
     
2. Distance
   • ~1,000–1,500 km from Israel.
     
   • Surrounded by hostile territory.
     
   • Requires covert insertion and extraction, likely without access to nearby friendly bases.
     
3. Time on Target
   • High risk of detection; must move fast.
     
   • May need to neutralize security personnel and surveillance silently.
     

🪂 Possible Insertion Methods

1. Airborne Infiltration
   • C-130 or C-17 aircraft flying at low altitude, dropping Sayeret Matkal or Shayetet 13 via HALO (High Altitude, Low Opening) parachute jumps.
     
   • Helicopter insertion (e.g., CH-53 Yasur or Sikorsky UH-60) if a nearby landing zone can be secured.
     
2. Overland Infiltration
   • Through Kurdish territory in northern Iraq (using Mossad or Kurdish contacts).
     
   • Disguised as Iranian military or civilians, using months of preparation and linguistic/cultural training.
     
3. Underground Sabotage
   • Unlikely but theoretically possible: a tunneling operation using robotics or mining equipment pre-positioned through sabotage teams or sympathetic locals.
     

💣 Attack Tactics

• Shaped charges to penetrate the centrifuge halls from access corridors.
  
• Use of thermobaric or specialized explosive devices to collapse or damage tunnel structures.
  
• Possibly include EMP devices to damage electronics and control systems.
  
• Plant time-delayed explosives to allow exfiltration before detonation.
  

🛡️ Deception & Diversion

• Simultaneous cyberattacks to disable alarms or communications.
  
• Decoy drone or missile attacks elsewhere in Iran (e.g., Natanz or Isfahan) to distract IRGC forces.
  
• Use of Iranian uniforms, fake documentation, and fake vehicles for deception.
  

🚁 Extraction Options

• Exfiltration via helicopter to a ship in the Gulf or a base in northern Iraq.
  
• Escape on foot to a safehouse for later pickup by air or land convoy.
  
• In some scenarios, the mission could be considered "no-return" – with operators sacrificing themselves or preparing for capture.
  

🪖 Likely Units Involved

• Sayeret Matkal – elite reconnaissance and counterterrorism unit.
  
• Shayetet 13 – naval commandos, comparable to SEAL Team 6.
  
• Mossad operatives – for local logistics, disguises, and intelligence.
  
• Cyber Units (Unit 8200) – for surveillance, hacking, jamming.
  

🧭 Historical Parallels

• Operation Entebbe (1976) – Israeli commandos flew 4,000 km to rescue hostages.
  
• Operation Orchard (2007) – secret airstrike on Syria’s nuclear reactor.
  
• Iran’s own assassination ops – e.g., targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists by Mossad-linked operatives inside Tehran.
  

🎯 Strategic Risk

• If caught or killed, operators could spark full-scale war.
  
• Would almost certainly be considered an act of war by Iran.
  
• Huge diplomatic fallout even from allies like the US or European nations.
  
• Extremely high political and military risk for Netanyahu or any Israeli PM.
  

💬 Bottom Line

A ground operation into Fordow would be feasible only under extreme conditions and with months or years of planning. It would require local assets, deception, cyber warfare, and elite special forces, and even then would face extraordinary risk. Israel is more likely to attempt sabotage or air-launched deep-penetration strikes using MOPs (Massive Ordnance Penetrators) if available, or covert means, than to risk a commando raid inside the mountain. But in a do-or-die scenario, such a raid can’t be entirely ruled out.

I don’t think they use chat gpt for mission planning . Icons give it away . What about the space laser while we are at it ?

[Bob Viking]

Nuclear Facilities

Israel has attacked the Arak nuclear site.

https://vcdnp.org/wp-content/uploads...facilities.pdf

I think Israel is starting to heavily flirt with the grey areas here. After all, we weren’t happy when Russia did it recently.

As someone who is currently downwind I have to say I’m not a big fan.

BV

[artee]

Originally Posted by T28B

In answer to your question, even though I am not the authority on such things that Chat GPT is...
1. Set up an ambush.
2. Position reserves to follow up on the ambush.
3. Parade the bodies of dead enemies through the streets of Tehran.

That's a plan, I am sure others can be dreamed up.

Or, the plan for the erks...
1. Salute officers enthusiastically
2. Send visa application to US, UK, France, Germany, China, anywhere, pleading persecution
3. Adjourn to pub (OK, chaikhaneh) to await results of visa application
4. Learn Yiddish

© not ChatGPT

[ORAC]

UK perspective - squeaky bum time on what to do if Trump asks for UK help and/or use of Diego Garcia.

Tim Shipman article in the Spectator followed by today’s Politico London Playbook.

https://archive.ph/apdVG

Starmer’s war zone: the Prime Minister is in a perilous position

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...om-the-bunker/

No news from the bunker

[Stuck On The Ground]

Originally Posted by Bob Viking

Israel has attacked the Arak nuclear site.

https://vcdnp.org/wp-content/uploads...facilities.pdf

I think Israel is starting to heavily flirt with the grey areas here. After all, we weren’t happy when Russia did it recently.

As someone who is currently downwind I have to say I’m not a big fan.

BV

I guess that’s one of the reasons you get the big bucks for working in that rejoin..

[Zombywoof]

Originally Posted by Stuck On The Ground

you get the big bucks for working in that rejoin..

Here's a rejoinder to that. Can't anyone write anymore without AI or autocorrect?

[tartare]

Originally Posted by dagenham

I don’t think they use chat gpt for mission planning . Icons give it away . What about the space laser while we are at it ?

I did briefly contemplate that I might be inadvertently breaching Israeli Opsec.
Oops - there's a man in black at the door with a Hebrew accent...

[DuncanDoenitz]

Originally Posted by TWT

Definitely needs Tom Cruise on the job

Or 633 Squadron.

(Mozzie; the original stealth bomber).

[ORAC]

……………

isw:

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1...515848782?s=61

Israeli strikes have driven Iranian forces to begin firing missiles from central Iran rather than western Iran. Iranian forces will need to use longer-range missiles to reach Israel from the launch sites in central Iran.

Launching ballistic missiles from Esfahan will prevent Iran from being able to use three medium-range ballistic missiles that it has previously used to attack Israel……..


​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/iaeaorg/status/1935625592768225321?s=61

IAEA has information the Khondab (former Arak) heavy water research reactor, under construction, was hit. It was not operational and contained no nuclear material, so no radiological effects.

At present, IAEA has no information indicating the Khondab heavy water plant was hit.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-st...r-development/

Reactor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclea...s_in_Iran#Arak

Heavy water plant: https://www.nti.org/education-center...on-plant-hwpp/

[Smalahove]

Originally Posted by ORAC

IAEA has information the Khondab (former Arak) heavy water research reactor, under construction, was hit.

At present, IAEA has no information indicating the Khondab heavy water plant was hit.

Brilliant!

[ORAC]

Not sure what point you are trying to make - they are two different buildings with different purposes, I provided links describing both - they IAEA confirm the first was attacked, they have no information on the second.

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by Zombywoof

Here's a rejoinder to that. Can't anyone write anymore without AI or autocorrect?

Agreed, many pawning it or other's work as their own thoughts on the topic.